scholarly journals Willow phenological modelling at different altitudes in central Italy

2020 ◽  
Vol 192 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabio Orlandi ◽  
Luigia Ruga ◽  
Marco Fornaciari
Keyword(s):  
Central Italy ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Practical Application ◽  
Prediction Tools ◽  
Willow Species ◽  
Full Flowering ◽  
Phenological Modelling ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Vegetative Phases ◽  
Different Altitudes

AbstractIn order to estimate the impact of climate change on the phenological parameters and to compare them with the historical record, a decision support system (DSS) has been applied employing a Phenological Modelling Platform. Biological observations of two willow species (Salix acutifolia and smithiana Willd) in 3 gardens at different altitudes located in Central Italy were utilized to identify suitable phenological models related to four main vegetative phase timings (BBCH11, BBCH91, BBCH 94, BBCH95), and male full flowering (BBCH 65) clearly identifiable in these species. The present investigation identifies the best phenological models for the main phenophases allowing their practical application as real-time monitoring and plant development prediction tools. Sigmoid model revealed high performances in simulating spring vegetative phases, BBCH11 (First leaves unfolded), and BBCH91 (Shoot and foliage growth completed). Salix acutifolia Willd. development appeared to be more related to temperature amount interpreted by phenological models in comparison to Salix smithiana Willd. above all during spring (BBCH11 and 91), probably due to a different grade of phenotypic plasticity between the 2 considered species.

scholarly journals Phenological response to temperature variability and orography in Central Italy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. B. Cerlini ◽  
M. Saraceni ◽  
F. Orlandi ◽  
L. Silvestri ◽  
M. Fornaciari
Keyword(s):  
Phenotypic Variability ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Phenological Data ◽  
Willow Species ◽  
Orographic Forcing ◽  
Trends Over Time ◽  
Local Warming ◽  
Response To Temperature ◽  
Local Trend ◽  
The Impact

AbstractEven if the sensitivity of vegetation phenology to climate change has been accepted on global and continental scales, the correlation between global warming and phenotypic variability shows a modulated answer depending on altitude, latitude, and the local seasonal thermal trend. To connect global patterns of change with local effects, we investigated the impact of the observed signal of warming found in Central Italy on two different willow species, Salix acutifolia and Salix smithiana, growing in three phenological gardens of the International Phenological Gardens’ network (IPG) located in different orographic positions. The time series of temperatures and phenological data for the period 2005–2018 were analysed first to find trends over time in the three gardens and then to correlate the recent local warming and the change in the two species phenology. The results confirmed the correlation between phenological trends and local trend of temperatures. In particular: budburst showed a trend of advancement of 1.4 days/year on average in all three gardens; flowering showed a divergent pattern between the gardens of either advancement of 1.0 days/year on average or delay of 1.1 days/year on average; while senescence showed a delay reaching even 3.3 days/year, although significant in only two gardens for both species. These trends were found to be correlated mainly with the temperatures of the months preceding the occurrence of the phase, with a shift in terms of days of the year (DOY) of the two species. Our conclusion is that the observed warming in Central Italy played a key role in controlling the phenophases occurrences of the two willow species, and that the orographic forcing leads to the different shift in DOY of phenophases (from 5 to 20 days) due to the local thermal forcing of the three phenological gardens.

scholarly journals Reply to “Comment on ‘The Impact of Recent Forcing and Ocean Heat Uptake Data on Estimates of Climate Sensitivity’”

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 397-404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Lewis ◽  
Judith Curry
Keyword(s):  
Time Windows ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Total Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractCowtan and Jacobs assert that the method used by Lewis and Curry in 2018 (LC18) to estimate the climate system’s transient climate response (TCR) from changes between two time windows is less robust—in particular against sea surface temperature bias correction uncertainty—than a method that uses the entire historical record. We demonstrate that TCR estimated using all data from the temperature record is closely in line with that estimated using the LC18 windows, as is the median TCR estimate using all pairs of individual years. We also show that the median TCR estimate from all pairs of decade-plus-length windows is closely in line with that estimated using the LC18 windows and that incorporating window selection uncertainty would make little difference to total uncertainty in TCR estimation. We find that, when differences in the evolution of forcing are accounted for, the relationship over time between warming in CMIP5 models and observations is consistent with the relationship between CMIP5 TCR and LC18’s TCR estimate but fluctuates as a result of multidecadal internal variability and volcanism. We also show that various other matters raised by Cowtan and Jacobs have negligible implications for TCR estimation in LC18.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Attendance Modality on the Learning Performance of a Course on Machines and Mechanisms Theory

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 558
Author(s):  
David Valiente ◽  
Héctor Campello-Vicente ◽  
Emilio Velasco-Sánchez ◽  
Fernando Rodríguez-Mas ◽  
Nuria Campillo-Davo
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Group Testing ◽  
Test Group ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Team Work ◽  
University Education ◽  
Learning Performance ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
The Impact

University education approaches related to the field of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM), have generally particularized on teaching activity and learning programs which are commonly understood as reoriented lessons that fuse theoretic concepts interweaved with practical activities. In this context, team work has been widely acknowledged as a means to conduct practical and hands-on lessons, and has been revealed to be successful in the achievement of exercise resolution and design tasks. Besides this, methodologies sustained by ICT resources such as online or blended approaches, have also reported numerous benefits for students’ active learning. However, such benefits have to be fully validated within the particular teaching context, which may facilitate student achievement to a greater or lesser extent. In this work, we analyze the impact of attendance modalities on the learning performance of a STEM-related course on “Machines and Mechanisms Theory”, in which practical lessons are tackled through a team work approach. The validity of the results is reinforced by group testing and statistical tests with a sample of 128 participants. Students were arranged in a test group (online attendance) and in a control group (face-to-face attendance) to proceed with team work during the practical lessons. Thus, the efficacy of distance and in situ methodologies is compared. Moreover, additional variables have also been compared according to the historical record of the course, in regards to previous academic years. Finally, students’ insights about the collaborative side of this program, self-knowledge and satisfaction with the proposal have also been reported by a custom questionnaire. The results demonstrate greater performance and satisfaction amongst participants in the face-to-face modality. Such a modality is prooven to be statistically significant for the final achievement of students in detriment to online attendance.

scholarly journals Ontogenetic shift in the trophic role of the invasive killer shrimp Dikerogammarus villosus: a stable isotope study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Mancini ◽  
Raffaele De Giorgi ◽  
Alessandro Ludovisi ◽  
Salvatrice Vizzini ◽  
Giorgio Mancinelli
Keyword(s):  
Dietary Habits ◽  
Trophic Position ◽  
Ecological Impact ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Dikerogammarus Villosus ◽  
Isotopic Signatures ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
Stable Isotope Study ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe introduction of the amphipod Dikerogammarus villosus in European fresh waters is to date recognized as a threat to the integrity of invaded communities. Predation by D. villosus on native benthic invertebrates is assumed as the key determinant of its ecological impact, yet available information describe the species as a primary consumer as well as a carnivore depending on local conditions. Here, we assessed the trophic position (TP) of D. villosus in Lake Trasimeno, a recently invaded lentic system in central Italy, using the CN isotopic signatures of individuals captured in winter spanning two orders of magnitude in body size. TP estimations were compared with those characterizing the native amphipod Echinogammarus veneris and other representative invertebrate predators. On average, D. villosus showed a trophic position higher than E. veneris, and comparable with that of odonate nymphs. An in-depth analysis revealed that large-sized individuals had a trophic position of 3.07, higher than odonates and close to that of the hirudinean predator Erpobdella octoculata, while small-sized specimens had a trophic position of 2.57, similar to that of E. veneris (2.41). These findings indicate that size-related ontogenetic shifts in dietary habits may per se vary the nature of the interaction between Dikerogammarus villosus and native invertebrates from competition to predation. Information collated from published isotopic studies corroborated the generality of our results. We conclude that intra-specific trophic flexibility may potentially amplify and make more multifaceted the impact of the species on other invertebrate species in invaded food webs.

scholarly journals The Impact of Probability Density Functions Assessment on Model Performance for Slope Stability Analysis

Geosciences ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 322
Author(s):  
Evelina Volpe ◽  
Luca Ciabatta ◽  
Diana Salciarini ◽  
Stefania Camici ◽  
Elisabetta Cattoni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Probability Density ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Probability Density Functions ◽  
Slope Instability ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Density Functions ◽  
Umbria Region ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
The Impact

The development of forecasting models for the evaluation of potential slope instability after rainfall events represents an important issue for the scientific community. This topic has received considerable impetus due to the climate change effect on territories, as several studies demonstrate that an increase in global warming can significantly influence the landslide activity and stability conditions of natural and artificial slopes. A consolidated approach in evaluating rainfall-induced landslide hazard is based on the integration of rainfall forecasts and physically based (PB) predictive models through deterministic laws. However, considering the complex nature of the processes and the high variability of the random quantities involved, probabilistic approaches are recommended in order to obtain reliable predictions. A crucial aspect of the stochastic approach is represented by the definition of appropriate probability density functions (pdfs) to model the uncertainty of the input variables as this may have an important effect on the evaluation of the probability of failure (PoF). The role of the pdf definition on reliability analysis is discussed through a comparison of PoF maps generated using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations performed over a study area located in the Umbria region of central Italy. The study revealed that the use of uniform pdfs for the random input variables, often considered when a detailed geotechnical characterization for the soil is not available, could be inappropriate.

scholarly journals Nitrate-dominated PM<sub>2.5</sub> and elevation of particle pH observed in urban Beijing during the winter of 2017

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 5019-5033 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuning Xie ◽  
Gehui Wang ◽  
Xinpei Wang ◽  
Jianmin Chen ◽  
Yubao Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Aerosols ◽  
Ammonia Concentration ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Molar Ratio ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Nitrate Content ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pollution Episodes

Abstract. The Chinese government has exerted strict emission controls to mitigate air pollution since 2013, which has resulted in significant decreases in the concentrations of air pollutants such as SO2. Strict pollution control actions also reduced the average PM2.5 concentration to the low level of 39.7 µg m−3 in urban Beijing during the winter of 2017. To investigate the impact of such changes on the physiochemical properties of atmospheric aerosols in China, we conducted a comprehensive observation focusing on PM2.5 in Beijing during the winter of 2017. Compared with the historical record (2014–2017), SO2 decreased to the low level of 3.2 ppbv in the winter of 2017, but the NO2 level was still high (21.4 ppbv in the winter of 2017). Accordingly, the contribution of nitrate (23.0 µg m−3) to PM2.5 far exceeded that of sulfate (13.1 µg m−3) during the pollution episodes, resulting in a significant increase in the nitrate-to-sulfate molar ratio. The thermodynamic model (ISORROPIA II) calculation results showed that during the PM2.5 pollution episodes particle pH increased from 4.4 (moderate acidic) to 5.4 (more neutralized) when the molar ratio of nitrate to sulfate increased from 1 to 5, indicating that aerosols were more neutralized as the nitrate content elevated. Controlled variable tests showed that the pH elevation should be attributed to nitrate fraction increase other than crustal ion and ammonia concentration increases. Based on the results of sensitivity tests, future prediction for the particle acidity change was discussed. We found that nitrate-rich particles in Beijing at low and moderate humid conditions (RH: 20 %–50 %) can absorb twice the amount of water that sulfate-rich particles can, and the nitrate and ammonia with higher levels have synergetic effects, rapidly elevating particle pH to merely neutral (above 5.6). As moderate haze events might occur more frequently under abundant ammonia and nitrate-dominated PM2.5 conditions, the major chemical processes during haze events and the control target should be re-evaluated to obtain the most effective control strategy.

scholarly journals Functional ANOVA approaches for detecting changes in air pollution during the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Acal ◽  
Ana M. Aguilera ◽  
Annalina Sarra ◽  
Adelia Evangelista ◽  
Tonio Di Battista ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Functional Data ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Functional Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Pm 10 ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Monitoring Stations

AbstractFaced with novel coronavirus outbreak, the most hard-hit countries adopted a lockdown strategy to contrast the spread of virus. Many studies have already documented that the COVID-19 control actions have resulted in improved air quality locally and around the world. Following these lines of research, we focus on air quality changes in the urban territory of Chieti-Pescara (Central Italy), identified as an area of criticality in terms of air pollution. Concentrations of $$\hbox {NO}_{{2}}$$ NO 2 , $$\hbox {PM}_{{10}}$$ PM 10 , $$\hbox {PM}_{2.5}$$ PM 2.5 and benzene are used to evaluate air pollution changes in this Region. Data were measured by several monitoring stations over two specific periods: from 1st February to 10 th March 2020 (before lockdown period) and from 11st March 2020 to 18 th April 2020 (during lockdown period). The impact of lockdown on air quality is assessed through functional data analysis. Our work makes an important contribution to the analysis of variance for functional data (FANOVA). Specifically, a novel approach based on multivariate functional principal component analysis is introduced to tackle the multivariate FANOVA problem for independent measures, which is reduced to test multivariate homogeneity on the vectors of the most explicative principal components scores. Results of the present study suggest that the level of each pollutant changed during the confinement. Additionally, the differences in the mean functions of all pollutants according to the location and type of monitoring stations (background vs traffic), are ascribable to the $$\hbox {PM}_{{10}}$$ PM 10 and benzene concentrations for pre-lockdown and during-lockdown tenure, respectively. FANOVA has proven to be beneficial to monitoring the evolution of air quality in both periods of time. This can help environmental protection agencies in drawing a more holistic picture of air quality status in the area of interest.

scholarly journals Late Pleistocene Boulder Slumps Eroded from a Basalt Shoreline at El Confital Beach on Gran Canaria (Canary Islands, Spain)

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 138
Author(s):  
Inés Galindo ◽  
Markes E. Johnson ◽  
Esther Martín-González ◽  
Carmen Romero ◽  
Juana Vegas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Late Pleistocene ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Marine Biota ◽  
Gran Canaria ◽  
Basaltic Rocks ◽  
Individual Wave ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Scientific Value ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the role of North Atlantic storms degrading a Late Pleistocene rocky shoreline formed by basaltic rocks overlying hyaloclastite rocks on a small volcanic peninsula connected to Gran Canaria in the central region of the Canary Archipelago. A conglomerate dominated by large, ellipsoidal to angular boulders eroded from an adjacent basalt flow was canvassed at six stations distributed along 800 m of the modern shore at El Confital, on the outskirts of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria. A total of 166 individual basalt cobbles and boulders were systematically measured in three dimensions, providing the database for analyses of variations in clast shape and size. The goal of this study was to apply mathematical equations elaborated after Nott (2003) and subsequent refinements in order to estimate individual wave heights necessary to lift basalt blocks from the layered and joint-bound sea cliffs at El Confital. On average, wave heights in the order of 4.2 to 4.5 m are calculated as having impacted the Late Pleistocene rocky coastline at El Confital, although the largest boulders in excess of 2 m in diameter would have required larger waves for extraction. A review of the fossil marine biota associated with the boulder beds confirms a littoral to very shallow water setting correlated in time with Marine Isotope Stage 5e (Eemian Stage) approximately 125,000 years ago. The historical record of major storms in the regions of the Canary and Azorean islands indicates that events of hurricane strength were likely to have struck El Confital in earlier times. Due to its high scientific value, the outcrop area featured in this study is included in the Spanish Inventory of Geosites and must be properly protected and managed to ensure conservation against the impact of climate change foreseen in coming years.

scholarly journals Characterisations in Britain of Isaac Newton’s Approach to Physical Inquiry in the Principia between 1687 and 1713

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 341-372
Author(s):  
Jip van Besouw ◽  
Steffen Ducheyne
Keyword(s):  
Historical Record ◽  
Public Perceptions ◽  
Philosophical Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Considerable Insight

Abstract In order to gain a better understanding of the impact and circulation of the first edition of the Principia, we offer an analysis of public perceptions in Britain of Isaac Newton’s approach to physical inquiry in the Principia between the appearance of its first and second editions, in 1687 and 1713, respectively. We treat Newton’s readers as actors with distinctive scholarly backgrounds and interests rather than as followers or popularisers of a “Newtonian philosophy,” a label we find to be largely absent in the historical record before 1713, when it was purposefully used by Roger Cotes in his preface to the second edition of the Principia. Through our survey, we gain considerable insight into how Newton’s readers characterised the Principia and its author. We establish that British readers of the first edition of the Principia ascribed a relatively stable and interrelated number of characteristics to Newton’s natural philosophical approach, although different readers emphasised different things. We also show that the most detailed accounts of Newton’s natural philosophical approach were, not surprisingly, given in polemical contexts. We find that it is only at the very end of this period, and in polemical contexts, that the notion of a “Newtonian philosophy” with a specific and pathbreaking approach to physical inquiry arose.

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