Climate change scenarios for precipitation and potential evapotranspiration over central Belgium

2009 ◽  
Vol 99 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 273-286 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Baguis ◽  
E. Roulin ◽  
P. Willems ◽  
V. Ntegeka
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

scholarly journals EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE UPPER BEAS BASIN OF THE WESTERN INDIAN HIMALAYA

2019 ◽  
Vol XLII-3/W6 ◽  
pp. 51-57
Author(s):  
S. Rani ◽  
S. Sreekesh ◽  
P. Krishnan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Indian Agricultural Research Institute ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Indian Himalaya ◽  
Near Future

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Appraisal of potential evapotranspiration (PET) is needed for estimating the agricultural water requirement and understanding hydrological processes in an arena. Therefore, aim of the paper was to estimate the PET in the upper Beas basin, situated in the Western Indian Himalaya, under future climate change scenarios (by mid-21st century). Climate data (1969&amp;ndash;2010) of Manali, Bhuntar and Katrain were obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI). Landsat data were used for mapping land use/land cover (LULC) conditions of the basin through decision tree technique. Elevation detail of the catchment area is derived from the Cartosat-1 digital elevation model (DEM). Simulations of PET were done by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The model was calibrated using the average monthly discharge data from Thalout station. The study found fluctuations in PET under different climate change scenarios. It is likely to increase in near future owing to the rise in temperature. The higher water demand can be met from the excess snowmelt water reaching the lower basin area during the cropping seasons. This study will be helpful to understand water availability conditions in the upper Beas basin in the near future.</p>

scholarly journals Long-Term Variability in Potential Evapotranspiration, Water Availability and Drought under Climate Change Scenarios in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 883 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahtsente Tadese ◽  
Lalit Kumar ◽  
Richard Koech
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Awash River Basin ◽  
Mitigate Climate Change

Understanding the hydrological processes of a watershed in response to climate change is vital to the establishment of sustainable environmental management strategies. This study aimed to evaluate the variability of potential evapotranspiration (PET) and water availability in the Awash River Basin (ARB) under different climate change scenarios and to relate these with long-term drought occurrences in the area. The PET and water availability of the ARB was estimated during the period of 1995–2009 and two future scenarios (2050s and 2070s). The representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) simulations showed an increase in the monthly mean PET from March to August in the 2050s, and all the months in the 2070s. The study also identified a shortage of net water availability in the majority of the months investigated and the occurrence of mild to extreme drought in about 40–50% of the analysed years at the three study locations (Holetta, Koka Dam, and Metehara). The decrease in water availability and an increase in PET, combined with population growth, will aggravate the drought occurrence and food insecurity in the ARB. Therefore, integrated watershed management systems and rehabilitation of forests, as well as water bodies, should be addressed in the ARB to mitigate climate change and water shortage in the area.

scholarly journals The Global Trend of the Net Irrigation Water Requirement of Maize from 1960 to 2050

Climate ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. 124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdoulaye Oumarou Abdoulaye ◽  
Haishen Lu ◽  
Yonghua Zhu ◽  
Yousef Alhaj Hamoud ◽  
Mohamed Sheteiwy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Water Requirement ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Irrigation Water Requirement ◽  
Sub Saharan

Irrigated production around the world has significantly increased over the last decade. However, climate change is a new threat that could seriously aggravate the irrigation water supplies and request. In this study, the data is derived from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). For the climate change scenarios, five Global Climate Models (GCMs) have been used. By using the CROPWAT approach of Smith, the net irrigation water requirement (IRnet) was calculated. For the estimation of the potential evapotranspiration (Epot), the method in Raziei and Pereira was used. According to representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5, these increases vary between 0.74% (North America) and 20.92% (North America) while the RCP 8.5 predict increases of 4.06% (sub-Saharan Africa) to more than 68% (North America). The results also show that the region of Latin America is the region with the large amount of IRnet with coprime value between 1.39 km3/yr (GFDL 4.5) and 1.48 km3/yr (CSIRO 4.5) while sub-Saharan Africa has the smallest IRnet amount between 0.13 km3/yr (GFDL 8.5) and 0.14 km3/yr (ECHAM 8.5). However, the most affected countries by this impact are those in sub-Saharan Africa. This study will probably help decision-makers to make corrections in making their decision.

scholarly journals Modeling the Potential Future Distribution of Anthrax Outbreaks under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios for Kenya

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 4176
Author(s):  
Fredrick Tom Otieno ◽  
John Gachohi ◽  
Peter Gikuma-Njuru ◽  
Patrick Kariuki ◽  
Harry Oyas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Boosted Regression Trees ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Niche Modelling ◽  
Geographic Ranges ◽  
Global Increase ◽  
Temperature Seasonality ◽  
The Tropics

The climate is changing, and such changes are projected to cause global increase in the prevalence and geographic ranges of infectious diseases such as anthrax. There is limited knowledge in the tropics with regards to expected impacts of climate change on anthrax outbreaks. We determined the future distribution of anthrax in Kenya with representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for year 2055. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) of boosted regression trees (BRT) was applied in predicting the potential geographic distribution of anthrax for current and future climatic conditions. The models were fitted with presence-only anthrax occurrences (n = 178) from historical archives (2011–2017), sporadic outbreak surveys (2017–2018), and active surveillance (2019–2020). The selected environmental variables in order of importance included rainfall of wettest month, mean precipitation (February, October, December, July), annual temperature range, temperature seasonality, length of longest dry season, potential evapotranspiration and slope. We found a general anthrax risk areal expansion i.e., current, 36,131 km2, RCP 4.5, 40,012 km2, and RCP 8.5, 39,835 km2. The distribution exhibited a northward shift from current to future. This prediction of the potential anthrax distribution under changing climates can inform anticipatory measures to mitigate future anthrax risk.

Climate Change Impact on the Water Resources of the Limpopo Basin

2018 ◽  
pp. 177-200
Author(s):  
Berhanu F. Alemaw ◽  
Thebeyame Ronald Chaoka
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Atmospheric Processes ◽  
Hydrologic Regimes ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
High Runoff

This chapter aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change on both hydrologic regimes and water resources of the Limpopo River Basin in southern Africa. Water resources availability in the basin, in terms of, seasonal and annual runoff (R), soil moisture (S) and actual evapotranspiration (Ea) is simulated and evaluated using the hydrological model, HATWAB. These water balances were computed from precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (Ep) and other variables that govern the soil-water-vegetation-atmospheric processes at 9.2km latitude/ longitude gird cells covering the basin. The 1961-90 simulated mean annual runoff reveals mixed patterns of high and low runoff across the region. Although relatively small changes in runoff simulations are prevalent among the three climate change scenarios, generally the OSU simulated relatively high runoff compared to the UKTR and HADCM2 GCMs.

Climate Change Impact on the Water Resources of the Limpopo Basin

2018 ◽  
pp. 656-680
Author(s):  
Berhanu F. Alemaw ◽  
Thebeyame Ronald Chaoka
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Atmospheric Processes ◽  
Hydrologic Regimes ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
High Runoff

This chapter aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change on both hydrologic regimes and water resources of the Limpopo River Basin in southern Africa. Water resources availability in the basin, in terms of, seasonal and annual runoff (R), soil moisture (S) and actual evapotranspiration (Ea) is simulated and evaluated using the hydrological model, HATWAB. These water balances were computed from precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (Ep) and other variables that govern the soil-water-vegetation-atmospheric processes at 9.2km latitude/ longitude gird cells covering the basin. The 1961-90 simulated mean annual runoff reveals mixed patterns of high and low runoff across the region. Although relatively small changes in runoff simulations are prevalent among the three climate change scenarios, generally the OSU simulated relatively high runoff compared to the UKTR and HADCM2 GCMs.

Evaluation of methods for calculating potential evapotranspiration in climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria-Carmen Vicente-Torres ◽  
Miguel Angel Perez Martin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Moisture Content ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Soil Moisture Content ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
The Mediterranean

&lt;p&gt;Despite uncertainties involved by future scenarios, the acknowledgement of climate change problem (WMO 2019/1248 reinforces the past five years as the warmest in industrial records, part of the warmest decade on record 2010-2019, and the need for urgent mitigation and adaptation actions have only grown in recent years. In the European Territory (EEA 1/2017), a significant decrease in summer soil moisture content in the Mediterranean region, while increases in north-eastern countries are projected for the coming decades. The current temperature increase derived from the emission of gases to the atmosphere, in the range of 0.1-0.3 &amp;#186;C per decade by the IPCC experts Special Report 2018, obliges a deep review of the agricultural productivity factors, according to the FAO-56 /2006.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Soil moisture content is thus approached as a dynamic variable, with changes in temperature as well as precipitation constantly affecting evapotranspiration and infiltration rates. In this paper, five computing methods for crop water evapotranspiration (Penman-Monteith proposed by FAO-56, Thornwaite, and three temperature-based methods: Hargreaves 1975, Hargreaves-Samani 1985, Samani 2000) are not only scientifically compared but also applied to a Spanish Study Case at Valencian Community in the Mediterranean Basin. Results are affected by local single crops coefficient (also proposed by FAO-56) for citrus trees in upper Palancia River catchment, representative of intensive agriculture in the area, and calculated under four future scenarios (from +1&amp;#186;C to 4&amp;#186;C of unitary temperature increase).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Analysed results by percentual comparison with Penman-Monteith estimation, demonstrate a similar application range (from -1% of variation in +1&amp;#186;C scenario to -4% of variation in 4&amp;#186;C scenario) for scarcer data-based methods (Hargreaves 1975, Hargreaves-Samani 1985 and Samani 2000) except Thornthwaite. Allowing to conclude that Thornthwaite projections in the Mediterranean Climate overestimate up to 3% (+1&amp;#186;C scenario), 6% (+2&amp;#186;C scenario), 11% (+3&amp;#186;C scenario) and 16% (+4&amp;#186;C scenario) the monthly values of crop evapotranspiration.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Do changes in climate or vegetation regulate evapotranspiration and streamflow trends in water-limited basins?

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 11183-11202
Author(s):  
Q. Liu ◽  
Z. Yang ◽  
L. Liang ◽  
W. Nan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Vegetation Type ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Rooting Depth ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Streamflow Trends

Abstract. Interactions between climate change, vegetation, and soil regulate hydrological processes. In this study, it was assumed that vegetation type and extent remained fixed and unchanged throughout the study period, while the effective rooting depth (Ze) changed under climate change scenarios. Budyko's hydrological model was used to explore the impact of climate change and vegetation on evapotranspiration (E) and streamflow (Q) on the static vegetation rooting depth and the dynamic vegetation rooting depth. Results showed that both precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (Ep) exhibited negative trends, which resulted in decreasing trends for dynamic Ze scenarios. Combined with climatic change, decreasing trends in Ze altered the partitioning of P into E and Q. For dynamic scenarios, total E and Q were predicted to be −1.73 and 28.22%, respectively, greater than static scenarios. Although climate change regulated changes in E and Q, the response of Ze to climate change had a greater overall contribution to changes in hydrological processes. Results from this study suggest that with the exception of vegetation type and extent, Ze scenarios were able to alter water balances, which in itself should help to regulate climate change impacts on water resources.

scholarly journals Climate change and hydrological extremes in Belgian catchments

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 5033-5078 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Baguis ◽  
E. Roulin ◽  
P. Willems ◽  
V. Ntegeka
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Delta Method ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Hydrological Extremes ◽  
Current Century

Abstract. In this study we focus our attention on the climate change impacts on the hydrological balance in Belgium. There are two main rivers in the country, the Scheldt and the Meuse, supplied with water almost exclusively by precipitation. With the climate change projected by climate models for the end of the current century, one would expect that the hydrological regime of the rivers may be affected mainly through the changes in precipitation patterns and the increased potential evapotranspiration (PET) due to increased temperature throughout the year. We examine the hydrology of two important tributaries of the rivers Scheldt and Meuse, the Gete and the Ourthe, respectively. Our analysis is based on simulations with the SCHEME hydrological model and on climate change data from the European PRUDENCE project. Two emission scenarios are considered, the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, and the perturbation (or delta) method is used in order to assess the climate change signal at monthly time scale and provide appropriate input time series for the hydrological simulations. The ensemble of climate change scenarios used allows us to estimate the combined model and scenario uncertainty in the streamflow calculations, inherent to this kind of analysis. In this context, we also analyze extreme river flows using two probability distribution families, allowing us to quantify the shift of the extremes under climate change conditions.

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