scholarly journals Modeling the Potential Future Distribution of Anthrax Outbreaks under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios for Kenya

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 4176
Author(s):  
Fredrick Tom Otieno ◽  
John Gachohi ◽  
Peter Gikuma-Njuru ◽  
Patrick Kariuki ◽  
Harry Oyas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Boosted Regression Trees ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Niche Modelling ◽  
Geographic Ranges ◽  
Global Increase ◽  
Temperature Seasonality ◽  
The Tropics

The climate is changing, and such changes are projected to cause global increase in the prevalence and geographic ranges of infectious diseases such as anthrax. There is limited knowledge in the tropics with regards to expected impacts of climate change on anthrax outbreaks. We determined the future distribution of anthrax in Kenya with representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for year 2055. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) of boosted regression trees (BRT) was applied in predicting the potential geographic distribution of anthrax for current and future climatic conditions. The models were fitted with presence-only anthrax occurrences (n = 178) from historical archives (2011–2017), sporadic outbreak surveys (2017–2018), and active surveillance (2019–2020). The selected environmental variables in order of importance included rainfall of wettest month, mean precipitation (February, October, December, July), annual temperature range, temperature seasonality, length of longest dry season, potential evapotranspiration and slope. We found a general anthrax risk areal expansion i.e., current, 36,131 km2, RCP 4.5, 40,012 km2, and RCP 8.5, 39,835 km2. The distribution exhibited a northward shift from current to future. This prediction of the potential anthrax distribution under changing climates can inform anticipatory measures to mitigate future anthrax risk.

scholarly journals EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE UPPER BEAS BASIN OF THE WESTERN INDIAN HIMALAYA

2019 ◽  
Vol XLII-3/W6 ◽  
pp. 51-57
Author(s):  
S. Rani ◽  
S. Sreekesh ◽  
P. Krishnan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Indian Agricultural Research Institute ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Indian Himalaya ◽  
Near Future

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Appraisal of potential evapotranspiration (PET) is needed for estimating the agricultural water requirement and understanding hydrological processes in an arena. Therefore, aim of the paper was to estimate the PET in the upper Beas basin, situated in the Western Indian Himalaya, under future climate change scenarios (by mid-21st century). Climate data (1969&amp;ndash;2010) of Manali, Bhuntar and Katrain were obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI). Landsat data were used for mapping land use/land cover (LULC) conditions of the basin through decision tree technique. Elevation detail of the catchment area is derived from the Cartosat-1 digital elevation model (DEM). Simulations of PET were done by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The model was calibrated using the average monthly discharge data from Thalout station. The study found fluctuations in PET under different climate change scenarios. It is likely to increase in near future owing to the rise in temperature. The higher water demand can be met from the excess snowmelt water reaching the lower basin area during the cropping seasons. This study will be helpful to understand water availability conditions in the upper Beas basin in the near future.</p>

scholarly journals The potential current distribution of the coypu (Myocastor coypus) in Europe and climate change induced shifts in the near future

NeoBiota ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 58 ◽  
pp. 129-160
Author(s):  
Anna Schertler ◽  
Wolfgang Rabitsch ◽  
Dietmar Moser ◽  
Johannes Wessely ◽  
Franz Essl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Grid Cells ◽  
Myocastor Coypus ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Management Recommendations

The coypu (Myocastor coypus) is a semi-aquatic rodent native to South America which has become invasive in Europe and other parts of the world. Although recently listed as species of European Union concern in the EU Invasive Alien Species Regulation, an analysis of the current European occurrence and of its potential current and future distribution was missing yet. We collected 24,232 coypu records (corresponding to 25,534 grid cells at 5 × 5 km) between 1980 and 2018 from a range of sources and 28 European countries and analysed them spatiotemporally, categorising them into persistence levels. Using logistic regression, we constructed consensus predictions across all persistence levels to depict the potential current distribution of the coypu in Europe and its change under four different climate scenarios for 2041–2060. From all presence grid cells, 45.5% showed at least early signs of establishment (records temporally covering a minimum of one generation length, i.e. 5 years), whereas 9.8% were considered as containing established populations (i.e. three generation lengths of continuous coverage). The mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), mean diurnal temperature range (bio2) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6) were the most important of the analysed predictors. In total, 42.9% of the study area are classified as suitable under current climatic conditions, of which 72.6% are to current knowledge yet unoccupied; therefore, we show that the coypu has, by far, not yet reached all potentially suitable regions in Europe. Those cover most of temperate Europe (Atlantic, Continental and Pannonian biogeographic region), as well as the coastal regions of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. A comparison of the suitable and occupied areas showed that none of the affected countries has reached saturation by now. Under climate change scenarios, suitable areas will slightly shift towards Northern regions, while a general decrease in suitability is predicted for Southern and Central Europe (overall decrease of suitable areas 2–8% depending on the scenario). Nevertheless, most regions that are currently suitable for coypus are likely to be so in the future. We highlight the need to further investigate upper temperature limits in order to properly interpret future climatic suitability for the coypu in Southern Europe. Based on our results, we identify regions that are most at risk for future invasions and provide management recommendations. We hope that this study will help to improve the allocation of efforts for future coypu research and contribute to harmonised management, which is essential to reduce negative impacts of the coypu and to prevent further spread in Europe.

scholarly journals Current and future suitable habitat areas for Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) in Colombia and Ecuador and analysis of its distribution across different land uses

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno ◽  
Patricia Gutiérrez-Salazar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Wildlife Conservation ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Niche Models

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.

scholarly journals Predicting the Suitable Geographical Distribution of Sinadoxa Corydalifolia under Different Climate Change Scenarios in the Three-River Region Using the MaxEnt Model

Plants ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 1015
Author(s):  
Xiaotao Huang ◽  
Li Ma ◽  
Chunbo Chen ◽  
Huakun Zhou ◽  
Buqing Yao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Habitat Destruction ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Co2 Concentrations ◽  
River Region ◽  
Temperature Seasonality

Sinadoxa corydalifolia is a perennial grass with considerable academic value as a rare species owing to habitat destruction and a narrow distribution. However, its distribution remains unclear. In this study, we predicted the distribution of Sinadoxa corydalifolia in the three-river region (the source of the Yangtze River, Yellow River, and Lancang River) under the context of climate change using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. Under the current climate scenario, the suitable distribution mainly occurred in Yushu County and Nangqian County. The suitable distribution area of Sinadoxa corydalifolia covered 3107 km2, accounting for 0.57% of the three-river region. The mean diurnal air temperature range (Bio2), temperature seasonality (Bio4), and mean air temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9) contributed the most to the distribution model for Sinadoxa corydalifolia, with a cumulative contribution of 81.4%. The highest suitability occurred when air temperature seasonality (Bio4) ranged from 6500 to 6900. The highest suitable mean air temperature of the driest quarter ranged from −5 to 0 °C. The highest suitable mean diurnal temperature (Bio2) ranged from 8.9 to 9.7 °C. In future (2041–2060) scenarios, the suitable distribution areas of Sinadoxa corydalifolia from high to low are as follows: representative concentration pathway (RCP)26 (6171 km2) > RCP45 (6017 km2) > RCP80 (4238 km2) > RCP60 (2505 km2). In future (2061–2080) scenarios, the suitable distribution areas of Sinadoxa corydalifolia from high to low are as follows: RCP26 (18,299 km2) > RCP60 (11,977 km2) > RCP45 (10,354 km2) > RCP80 (7539 km2). In general, the suitable distribution will increase in the future. The distribution area of Sinadoxa corydalifolia will generally be larger under low CO2 concentrations than under high CO2 concentrations. This study will facilitate the development of appropriate conservation measures for Sinadoxa corydalifolia in the three-river region.

Climate change risks to push large parts of global food production and population centres to unprecedented conditions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matti Kummu ◽  
Matias Heino ◽  
Maija Taka ◽  
Olli Varis ◽  
Daniel Viviroli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Production Areas ◽  
Global Food

&lt;p&gt;The majority of global food production, as we know it, is based on agricultural practices developed within stable Holocene climate conditions. Climate change is altering the key conditions for human societies, such as precipitation, temperature and aridity. Their combined impact on altering the conditions in areas where people live and grow food has not yet, however, been systematically quantified on a global scale. Here, we estimate the impacts of two climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 8.5) on major population centres and food crop production areas at 5 arc-min scale (~10 km at equator) using Holdridge Life Zones (HLZs), a concept that incorporates all the aforementioned climatic characteristics. We found that if rapid growth of GHG emissions is not halted (RCP 8.5), in year 2070, one fifth of the major food production areas and one fourth of the global population centres would experience climate conditions beyond the ones where food is currently produced, and people are living. Our results thus reinforce the importance of following the RCP 2.6 path, as then only a small fraction of food production (5%) and population centres (6%) would face such unprecedented conditions. Several areas experiencing these unprecedented conditions also have low resilience, such as those within Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Chad, and Guinea-Bissau. In these countries over 75% of food production and population would experience unprecedented climatic conditions under RCP 8.5. These and many other hotspot areas require the most urgent attention to secure sustainable development and equity.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals The current and future potential geographical distribution of the oriental fruit fly,Bactrocera dorsalis(Diptera: Tephritidae)

2007 ◽  
Vol 97 (4) ◽  
pp. 369-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.E.A. Stephens ◽  
D.J. Kriticos ◽  
A. Leriche
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cold Stress ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Fruit Fly ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Bactrocera Dorsalis ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Oriental Fruit Fly ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe oriental fruit fly,Bactrocera dorsalis(Hendel), is a major pest throughout South East Asia and in a number of Pacific Islands. As a result of their widespread distribution, pest status, invasive ability and potential impact on market access,B. dorsalisand many other fruit fly species are considered major threats to many countries. CLIMEX™ was used to model the potential global distribution ofB. dorsalisunder current and future climate scenarios. Under current climatic conditions, its projected potential distribution includes much of the tropics and subtropics and extends into warm temperate areas such as southern Mediterranean Europe. The model projects optimal climatic conditions forB. dorsalisin the south-eastern USA, where the principle range-limiting factor is likely to be cold stress. As a result of climate change, the potential global range forB. dorsalisis projected to extend further polewards as cold stress boundaries recede. However, the potential range contracts in areas where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially. The significant increases in the potential distribution ofB. dorsalisprojected under the climate change scenarios suggest that the World Trade Organization should allow biosecurity authorities to consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. One of the most significant areas of uncertainty in climate change concerns the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results are provided that span the range of standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios. The impact on the projected distribution ofB. dorsalisis striking, but affects the relative abundance of the fly within the total suitable range more than the total area of climatically suitable habitat.

Multifunctionality in European mountain forests — an optimization under changing climatic conditions

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabian H. Härtl ◽  
Ivan Barka ◽  
W. Andreas Hahn ◽  
Tomáš Hlásny ◽  
Florian Irauschek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Service ◽  
Growth Conditions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Nature Management ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Mountain Forests ◽  
Management Options ◽  
European Mountain ◽  
Fall Protection

Forests provide countless ecological, societal, and climatological benefits. With changing climate, maintaining certain services may lead to a decrease in the quantity or quality of other services available from that source. Accordingly, our research objective is to analyze the effects of the provision of a certain ecosystem service on the economically optimized harvest schedules and how harvest schedules will be influenced by climate change. Based on financial portfolio theory, we determined, for two case study regions in Austria and Slovakia, treatment schedules based on nonlinear programming, which integrates climate-sensitive biophysical risks and risk-averting behavior of the management. In both cases, results recommend reducing the overaged stocking volume within several decades to establish new ingrowth, leading to an overall reduction of age and related risk, as well as an increase in growth. Under climate change conditions, the admixing of hardwoods towards spruce–fir–beech (Austria) or spruce–pine–beech (Slovakia) stands should be emphasized to account for the changing risk and growth conditions. Moreover, climate change scenarios either increased (Austria) or decreased (Slovakia) the economic return slightly. In both cases, the costs for providing the ecosystem service “rock fall protection” increases under climate change. Although in the Austrian case there is no clear tendency between the management options, in the Slovakian case, a close-to-nature management option is preferred under climate change conditions. Increasing tree species richness, increasing structural diversity, replacing high-risk stands, and reducing average growing stocks are important preconditions for a successful sustainable management of European mountain forests in the long term.

scholarly journals Prediction of Spatiotemporal Invasive Risk of the Red Import Fire Ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), in China

Insects ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 874
Author(s):  
Jinyue Song ◽  
Hua Zhang ◽  
Ming Li ◽  
Wuhong Han ◽  
Yuxin Yin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Solenopsis Invicta ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Fire Ant ◽  
Invasive Pest ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Suitable Area

The red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), is an invasive pest, and it has spread rapidly all over the world. Predicting the suitable area of S. invicta growth in China will provide a reference that will allow for its invasion to be curbed. In this study, based on the 354 geographical distribution records of S. invicta, combined with 24 environmental factors, the suitable areas of S. invicta growth in China under current (2000s) and future (2030s and 2050s) climate scenarios (SSPs1-2.5s, SSPs2-3.5s and SSPs5-8.5s) were predicted by using the optimized MaxEnt model and geo-detector model. An iterative algorithm and knife-cut test were used to evaluate the important environmental factors that restrict the suitable area under the current climatic conditions. This study also used the response curve to determine the appropriate value of environmental factors to further predict the change and the center of gravity transfer of the suitable area under climate change. The optimized MaxEnt model has high prediction accuracy, and the working curve area (AUC) of the subjects is 0.974. Under climatic conditions, the suitable area is 81.37 × 104 km2 in size and is mainly located in the south and southeast of China. The main environmental factors affecting the suitable area are temperature (Bio1, Bio6, and Bio9), precipitation (Bio12 and Bio14) and NDVI. In future climate change scenarios, the total suitable area will spread to higher latitudes. This distribution will provide an important theoretical basis for relevant departments to rapidly prevent and control the invasion of S. invicta.

scholarly journals A simple water-energy balance framework to predict the sensitivity of streamflow to climate change

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 8793-8830 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Renner ◽  
R. Seppelt ◽  
C. Bernhofer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Balance ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Evaporative Demand ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Climatic Variations ◽  
Average Change ◽  
Hydrology And Water Resources

Abstract. Long term average change in streamflow is a major concern in hydrology and water resources management. Some simple analytical methods exist for the assessment of the sensitivity of streamflow to climatic variations. These are based on the Budyko hypothesis, which assumes that long term average streamflow can be predicted by climate conditions, namely by annual average precipitation and evaporative demand. Recently, Tomer and Schilling (2009) presented an ecohydrological concept to distinguish between effects of climate change and basin characteristics change on streamflow. We provide a theoretical foundation of this concept by showing that it is based on a coupled consideration of the water and energy balance. The concept uses a special condition that the sum of the ratio of annual actual evapotranspiration to precipitation and the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration is constant, even when climate conditions are changing. Here we apply this assumption and derive analytical solutions to the problem of streamflow sensitivity on climate. We show how climate sensitivity is influenced by different climatic conditions and the actual hydrological response of a basin. Finally, the properties and implications of the new method are compared with established Budyko sensitivity methods.

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