High-resolution long-term WRF climate simulations over Volta Basin. Part 1: validation analysis for temperature and precipitation

2017 ◽  
Vol 133 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 829-849 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thompson Annor ◽  
Benjamin Lamptey ◽  
Sven Wagner ◽  
Philip Oguntunde ◽  
Joël Arnault ◽  
...  
2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Chimani ◽  
R. Böhm ◽  
C. Matulla ◽  
M. Ganekind

Abstract. Solid precipitation (mainly snow, but snow and ice pellets or hail as well), is an important parameter for climate studies. But as this parameter usually is not available operationally before the second part of the 20th century and nowadays is not reported by automatic stations, information usable for long term climate studies is rare. Therefore a proxy for the fraction of solid precipitation based on a nonlinear relationship between the percentage of solid precipitation and monthly mean temperature was developed for the Greater Alpine Region of Europe and applied to the existing longterm high resolution temperature and precipitation grids (5 arcmin). In this paper the method is introduced and some examples of the resulting datasets available at monthly resolution for 1800–2003 are given.


2008 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 14-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroshi G. Takahashi ◽  
Takao Yoshikane ◽  
Masayuki Hara ◽  
Tetsuzo Yasunari

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomi Afrizal ◽  
Chinnawat Surussavadee

This study evaluates the high-resolution climate simulation system CESM/WRF composed of the global climate model, Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1, and the mesoscale model, Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), for simulating high-resolution climatological temperature and precipitation in the tropics with complex terrain where temperature and precipitation are strongly inhomogeneous. The CESM/WRF climatological annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature simulations for years 1980–1999 at 10 km resolution for Sumatra and nearby regions are evaluated using observations and the global climate reanalysis ERA-Interim (ERA). CESM/WRF simulations at 10 km resolution are also compared with the downscaled reanalysis ERA/WRF at 10 km resolution. Results show that while temperature and precipitation patterns of the original CESM are very different from observations, those for CESM/WRF agree well with observations. Resolution and accuracies of simulations are significantly improved by dynamically downscaling CESM using WRF. CESM/WRF can simulate locations of very cold temperature at mountain peaks well. The high-resolution climate simulation system CESM/WRF can provide useful climate simulations at high resolution for Sumatra and nearby regions. CESM/WRF-simulated climatological temperature and precipitation at 10 km resolution agree well with ERA/WRF. This suggests the use of CESM/WRF for climate projections at high resolution for Sumatra and nearby regions.


2017 ◽  
Vol 151 ◽  
pp. 122-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Fernández-Montes ◽  
J.J. Gómez-Navarro ◽  
F.S. Rodrigo ◽  
J.A. García-Valero ◽  
J.P. Montávez

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Masayoshi Ishii ◽  
Nobuhito Mori

Abstract A large-ensemble climate simulation database, which is known as the database for policy decision-making for future climate changes (d4PDF), was designed for climate change risk assessments. Since the completion of the first set of climate simulations in 2015, the database has been growing continuously. It contains the results of ensemble simulations conducted over a total of thousands years respectively for past and future climates using high-resolution global (60 km horizontal mesh) and regional (20 km mesh) atmospheric models. Several sets of future climate simulations are available, in which global mean surface air temperatures are forced to be higher by 4 K, 2 K, and 1.5 K relative to preindustrial levels. Nonwarming past climate simulations are incorporated in d4PDF along with the past climate simulations. The total data volume is approximately 2 petabytes. The atmospheric models satisfactorily simulate the past climate in terms of climatology, natural variations, and extreme events such as heavy precipitation and tropical cyclones. In addition, data users can obtain statistically significant changes in mean states or weather and climate extremes of interest between the past and future climates via a simple arithmetic computation without any statistical assumptions. The database is helpful in understanding future changes in climate states and in attributing past climate events to global warming. Impact assessment studies for climate changes have concurrently been performed in various research areas such as natural hazard, hydrology, civil engineering, agriculture, health, and insurance. The database has now become essential for promoting climate and risk assessment studies and for devising climate adaptation policies. Moreover, it has helped in establishing an interdisciplinary research community on global warming across Japan.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Atanu Bhattacharya ◽  
Tobias Bolch ◽  
Kriti Mukherjee ◽  
Owen King ◽  
Brian Menounos ◽  
...  

AbstractKnowledge about the long-term response of High Mountain Asian glaciers to climatic variations is paramount because of their important role in sustaining Asian river flow. Here, a satellite-based time series of glacier mass balance for seven climatically different regions across High Mountain Asia since the 1960s shows that glacier mass loss rates have persistently increased at most sites. Regional glacier mass budgets ranged from −0.40 ± 0.07 m w.e.a−1 in Central and Northern Tien Shan to −0.06 ± 0.07 m w.e.a−1 in Eastern Pamir, with considerable temporal and spatial variability. Highest rates of mass loss occurred in Central Himalaya and Northern Tien Shan after 2015 and even in regions where glaciers were previously in balance with climate, such as Eastern Pamir, mass losses prevailed in recent years. An increase in summer temperature explains the long-term trend in mass loss and now appears to drive mass loss even in regions formerly sensitive to both temperature and precipitation.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa Ong ◽  
Mark Gibson ◽  
Gerald Coakley

Abstract Case report - Introduction Severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a novel virus that can lead to an excessive immune activation and cytokine response known as Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) which predominantly affects the lungs. Patients with chronic inflammatory disease on biological immunosuppressive treatments may be at a higher risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2. However, it is yet to be determined whether immunomodulatory medications used in inflammatory diseases have protective capabilities against severe outcomes. Case report - Case description A 51-year old female with a 13-year history of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) presented to hospital with fever, exertional breathlessness, and a non-productive cough. She was diagnosed with seropositive erosive RA at the age of 38 and was on 6-monthly Rituximab infusions and Leflunomide on admission. She had relatively stable pulmonary fibrosis (diagnosed in 2010). Her chest CTs in 2010 and 2018 noted bilateral basal subpleural ground glass change with limited honeycombing and spirometry study revealed FEV1 of 2.2 (82% predicted), VC of 2.7 (87% predicted), DLCO of 7.0 (78% predicted) and kCO of 1.6 (78% predicted). On admission in March 2020, she was hypoxic (oxygen saturation of 88% in room air) and had raised inflammatory markers (CRP 341mg/dL, d-Dimer 914ng/ml, Ferritin 3141ng/ml, LDH 672U/L). Her last Rituximab infusion was 3 months prior and leflunomide was withheld on admission. SARS-CoV-2 PCR nasopharyngeal swab was positive, and she was recruited to the RECOVERY trial, being randomized to Lopinavir-Ritonavir for 10 days. Her oxygen requirements increased, and a CT pulmonary angiogram excluded pulmonary embolism but revealed ground glass changes and extensive multilobar consolidation. She was eligible for recruitment into RECOVERY-2 (tocilizumab) given the ongoing oxygen requirement and elevated CRP, but she was randomised to usual care. She was commenced on 80mg of IV methylprednisolone, a dose chosen because of its proven effectiveness in Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome. She clinically improved and was discharged from hospital 20 days after starting Methylprednisolone with a CRP of 17mg/dL. Two months after discharge, the patient had repeat spirometry study which noted FEV1 of 1.4 (57% predicted), VC of 1.5 (52% predicted), DLCO of 2.4 (28% predicted) and kCO of 1.0 (47% predicted). A repeat high-resolution chest CT reported significant improvement of peripheral ground glass changes and consolidation, but she is still fatigued and more breathless than previously. Case report - Discussion The RECOVERY trial concluded that Dexamethasone reduced mortality in intubated patients and in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 with a high oxygen requirement. The results were published after this patient was discharged. A hyperinflammatory response to COVID-19 is seen in a subset of patients, and our own hospital data suggest that this condition affects around 5% of admitted COVID-19 patients, but that extreme hyperferritinaemia above 10,000 is extremely rare. Similar responses (known as Haemophagocytic Lymphohistiocytosis [HLH]) are seen with a variety of viral and bacterial infections, in malignancy and in inflammatory rheumatic diseases (Macrophage Activation Syndrome [MAS]), but typically HLH and MAS patients have ferritin > 10,000. It appears unlikely that true HLH is a significant manifestation of COVID-19 infection, but moderate hyperferritinaemia is not uncommon and the results of this study, taken together with case reports and series from China and Italy suggest that similar treatments to those used in HLH may transform the prognosis for COVID-19 patients in this subset. It is unknown whether the recent Rituximab infusion had a role in reducing the “cytokine storm” and delaying progression to severe COVID-19. However, it may be argued that the remaining T cells in B cell depleted patients are sufficient for viral clearance. The long-term impact of SARS-CoV-2 on pulmonary function is still unclear. Our patient had a major deterioration in her lung function when compared to her baseline. There was severe reduction in gas transfer post COVID-19. However, her repeat high resolution CT chest reported substantial improvement in ground glass changes and consolidation. The long-term prognosis is still uncertain. Initial fears that patients on DMARDs and biological therapies for inflammatory rheumatic disease would be extremely vulnerable to COVID-19 have not been confirmed, but patients with extra-articular manifestations on combinations of DMARDs and biological therapies may be a subset at higher risk. Case report - Key learning points Our Intensivist colleagues, early in the COVID-19 outbreak, were understandably cautious about using heavily immunosuppressive treatments for a life-threatening viral infection. Using a multi-disciplinary approach at a time when knowledge of how to treat this condition was rudimentary, along with informed consent from an intelligent and thoughtful patient, we were able to plot a middle path to suppress hyperinflammation without using massively immunosuppressive doses of steroid, with a successful outcome. This patient illustrates one aspect of the hyper-inflammatory response seen in a subset of the most critically ill patients with COVID-19. At the time of writing, the RECOVERY 2 trial is yet to be published, but the rapid improvement in inflammatory markers including CRP and Ferritin, along with a dramatic improvement in clinical state, suggest that relatively modest doses of parenteral steroid have life-saving potential at far lower cost and greater worldwide availability than biological therapies such as Tocilizumab or Anakinra. Trials of Tocilizumab in RECOVERY2 and of Anakinra coordinated by the Hyperinflammation Histio UK Haemophagocytosis Across Specialty Collaboration (HASC), as well as international randomised controlled trials will be critical in determining the optimal treatment strategy for this subset of critically ill COVID-19 patients. The experience of our patient suggests that one arm of such studies should include a relatively modest dose of parenteral steroid, be that Dexamethasone or Methylprednisolone, particularly given that COVID-19 is affecting countries across the developing, as well as the developed, world.


Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Martial Amou ◽  
Amatus Gyilbag ◽  
Tsedale Demelash ◽  
Yinlong Xu

As global temperatures continue to rise unabated, episodes of heat-related catastrophes across the world have intensified. In Kenya, heatwave phenomena and their associated impacts are ignored and neglected due to several reasons, including unreliable and inconsistent weather datasets and heatwave detection metrics. Based on CHIRTS satellite infrared estimates and station blended temperature, this study investigated the spatiotemporal distribution of the heatwave events over Kenya during 1987–2016 using the Heatwave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId). The results showed that contrary to the absence of heatwave records in official national and international disaster database about Kenya, the country experienced heatwaves ranging from less severe (normal) to deadly (super-extreme) between 1987 and 2016. The most affected areas were located in the eastern parts of the country, especially in Garissa and Tana River, and in the west-northern side around the upper side of Turkana county. It was also found that the recent years’ heatwaves were more severe in magnitude, duration, and spatial extent. The highest magnitude of the heatwaves was recorded in 2015 (HWMId = 22.64) while the average over the reference period is around 6. CHIRTS and HWMId were able to reveal and capture most critical heatwave events over the study period. Therefore, they could be used respectively as data source and detection metrics, for heatwaves disaster emergency warning over short period as well as for long-term projection to provide insight for adaptation strategies.


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