Long-term multi-risk assessment: statistical treatment of interaction among risks

2013 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. 701-722 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacopo Selva
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Statistical Treatment

Lethal and long-term effects of landfill leachate on Eisenia andrei earthworms: Behavior, reproduction and risk assessment

2021 ◽  
Vol 285 ◽  
pp. 112029
Author(s):  
Sidney Fernandes Sales Junior ◽  
Camille Ferreira Mannarino ◽  
Daniele Maia Bila ◽  
Cláudio Ernesto Taveira Parente ◽  
Fábio Veríssimo Correia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Landfill Leachate ◽  
Eisenia Andrei ◽  
Long Term Effects

scholarly journals Peripheral atherosclerosis and abdominal aortic aneurysm as a new risk factors of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with stable CAD receiving long-term antithrombotic therapy

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
V Korobkova ◽  
AL Komarov ◽  
OO Shakhmatova ◽  
MV Andreevskaya ◽  
EB Yarovaya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Antithrombotic Therapy ◽  
Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding ◽  
Atherosclerotic Burden ◽  
Abdominal Aortic ◽  
Stable Cad ◽  
Upper Gastrointestinal

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is the most common hemorrhagic complication in stable CAD patients receiving antithrombotic therapy. It seems that atherosclerotic burden may increase the overall bleeding frequency. However, this factor has never been taken into account with UGIB risk assessment. We aimed to assess the predictive value of atherosclerotic burden (peripheral atherosclerosis – PAD and abdominal aortic aneurysm - AAA) for UGIB in patients with stable CAD receiving long-term antithrombotic therapy. Patients and Methods. A single center prospective Registry of Long-term AnTithrombotic TherApy (REGATTA-1 NCT04347200) included 934 pts with stable CAD (78.6% males, median age 61 [IQR 53-68] yrs). 77,3 %  of patients received dual antiplatelet therapy due to recent PCI with a switch to aspirin monotherapy after 6 months. 17,6% of patients received aspirin only, 5,1 % of patients received oral anticoagulants because of concomitant atrial fibrillation. Risk assessment of UGIB was performed according to the 2015 European Society of Cardiology guidelines (we were not able to identify only Helicobacter pylori infection). Additional ultrasound screening for PAD (lower limbs and cerebrovascular beds) and AAA was applied. The primary outcome was any overt UGIB (BARC ≥2). Results  The frequency of PAD was 18,8%, AAA – 2,4%, PAD and/or AAA -  20,5%. In a total 2335 person-years of follow-up (median follow-up - 2,5 yrs, IQR 1,1 – 5.1), UGIB occurred in 51 patients (incidence at 1 year 1,9 per 100 patients).  The median time to first occurrence of UGIB was 72 [IQR 13-214] days. Comparing the Kaplan-Meyer curves, the UGIB developed three times more often in patients with coexisted PAD and/or AAA vs isolated CAD (19.8% vs 6.5%, Log-Rank p = 0.00006). The difference remains consisted in regression model taking in account 2015 ESC panel of UGIB risk factors (OR 3.4; CI 1.7–6.9, p = 0,0005). Conclusions Atherosclerotic burden (concomitant PAD and/or AAA) is an independent predictor of UGIB in patients with stable CAD receiving long-term antithrombotic therapy.

A CONDITIONAL EQUITY RISK MODEL FOR REGULATORY ASSESSMENT

2018 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 217-242
Author(s):  
A. Floryszczak ◽  
J. Lévy Véhel ◽  
M. Majri
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Market Failures ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Equity Risk ◽  
Solvency Capital ◽  
Functional Differential ◽  
Stochastic Functional

AbstractWe define and study in this work a simple model designed for managing long-term market risk of financial institutions with long-term commitments. It allows the assessment of solvency capital requirements and the allocation of risk budgets. This model allows one to avoid over-assessment of solvency capital requirements specifically after market disruptions. It relies on a dampener component in charge of refining risk assessment after market failures. Rather than aiming at a realistic and thus complex description of equity prices movements, this model concentrates on minimal features enabling accurate computation of capital requirements. It is defined both in a discrete and continuous fashion. In the latter case, we prove the existence, uniqueness and stability of the solution of the stochastic functional differential equation that specifies the model. One difficulty is that the proposed underlying stochastic process has neither stationary nor independent increments. We are however able to perform statistical analyses in view of its validation. Numerical experiments show that our model outperforms more elaborate ones of common use as far as medium-term (between 6 months and 5 years) risk assessment is concerned.

scholarly journals Paleoenvironmental Reconstructions Improve Ecosystem Services Risk Assessment: Case Studies from Two Coastal Lagoons in South America

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1350 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Velez ◽  
Daniel Conde ◽  
Juan Lozoya ◽  
James Rusak ◽  
Felipe García-Rodríguez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
South America ◽  
Coastal Lagoons ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
History Of ◽  
Paleoenvironmental Reconstructions

Paleoenvironmental reconstructions are increasingly being used in conservation biology, ecosystem management, and evaluations of ecosystem services (ES), but their potential to contribute to the ES risk assessment process has not been explored. We propose that the long-term history of the ecosystem provides valuable information that augments and strengthens an ES risk assessment and that it should be considered routinely when undertaking risk assessments. We adjusted a standard ecosystem-based risk management (EBRM) protocol to include paleoenvironmental data, and tested the modified approach on two coastal lagoons in South America. Paleolimnological reconstructions in both lagoons indicate that salinity and nutrients (in Laguna de Rocha), and salinity (in Ciénaga Grande de Santa Marta), as controlled by hydrologic connectivity with the ocean and freshwater tributaries, have been the key variables behind ecosystem’s function. This understanding, applied to inform various components and steps in the EBRM protocol, suggests that the maintenance of hydrological connections should be a management priority to minimize risk to ES. This work illustrates the utility of including paleoenvironmental data in an EBRM context and highlights the need for a more holistic approach to risk management by incorporating the long-term history of ecosystem function.

scholarly journals Arsenic-Related Health Risk Assessment of Realgar-Containing NiuHuangJieDu Tablets in Healthy Volunteers Po Administration

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao Wu ◽  
Ruoning Yan ◽  
Rong Guan ◽  
Yi Du ◽  
Yuexin Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Health Risk ◽  
Healthy Volunteers ◽  
Arsenic Speciation ◽  
Arsenic Exposure ◽  
Hydride Generation ◽  
Atomic Fluorescence Spectrometry ◽  
Total Arsenic ◽  
Atomic Fluorescence

Realgar, an arsenic-containing traditional Chinese medicine of As2S2, has significant therapeutic effects for hundreds of years. NiuHuangJieDu tablets (NHJDT) is one of the most commonly prescribed realgar-containing preparations for the treatment of sore throat, swelling, and aching of gums. However, realgar-containing TCMs raise great safety concerns due to the adverse effects reported by arsenic poisoning. In this study, the arsenic-related health risk assessment of NHJDT was conducted in healthy volunteers after single and multiple doses oral administration. Blood, plasma, and urine samples were collected after dosing at predetermined time points or periods. Simple, rapid, and sensitive methods were established for the quantification of total arsenic and arsenic speciation in biological samples. The total arsenic and arsenic speciation were determined by hydride generation-atomic fluorescence spectrometry (HG-AFS) and high-performance liquid chromatography–hydride generation–atomic fluorescence spectrometry (HPLC-HG-AFS), respectively. No significant fluctuation of total arsenic was observed in human blood, and no traces of arsenic speciation were found in human plasma. Dimethylarsenic acid was detected as the predominated arsenic species in human urine after dosing. Therapeutic dose administration of NHJDT was relatively safe in single dose for the limited blood arsenic exposure, but long-term medication may still pose health risks due to the accumulation of arsenics in blood and its extremely slow excretion rate. Therefore, arsenic exposure should be carefully monitored during realgar-containing TCM medication, especially for long-term regimen. The results obtained in this study will provide scientific references for the clinical application of realgar and its-containing TCMs.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Malakite with the Active Substances Dithianon and Pyrimenthanil

2019 ◽  
pp. 312-314
Author(s):  
Torsten Källqvist ◽  
Merete Grung ◽  
Katrine Borgå ◽  
Hubert Dirven ◽  
Ole Martin Eklo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Surface Waters ◽  
Plant Protection ◽  
Aquatic Organisms ◽  
Toxicity Tests ◽  
Concentration Addition ◽  
Active Ingredients ◽  
Active Substances ◽  
Assessment Factor

The plant protection product Malakite (BAS 669 01 F), containing the active substances dithianon and pyrimethanil, is a fungicide against scab in pome fruits. Products containing these active plant protection substances are approved in Norway, but not with both substances in the same product. The Swedish Chemicals Agency (KemI) has as zonal Rapporteur Member State (zRMS) of the Northern Zone evaluated the product Malakite and decided on non-approval due to the observation of unacceptable effects in exposed birds, aquatic organisms, non-target arthropods and earthworms. On request from The Norwegian Food Safety Authority, the VKM Panel on Plant Protection Products has discussed the available data and the report prepared by KemI, and has concluded as follows on the questions raised: On the refinement of DT50 in long term risk assessment for birds: It is the view of the VKM panel that the refinement is not acceptable because the analysis using first order kinetics seems not in line with a realistic and sufficiently conservative approach for the data provided. Furthermore, field studies from more sites are required. On the long term cumulative effects of the active substances on birds: VKM shares the view of KemI, that the combined sub-lethal and reproduction effects should be assessed because the mode of action of the two ingredients has only been shown in fungi, and since the mechanisms in birds could be different. On the reduction of assessment factor for fish: VKM opposes to the reduction of assessment factor for dithianon in fish because the data from acute toxicity tests cannot be extrapolated to chronic toxicity, and because the factor should reflect not only the variation in interspecies sensitivity, but also the uncertainty involved in extrapolation from laboratory tests to the field situation. On the choice of end point in risk assessment for fish: The VKM panel considers the NOEC of dithianon for fish determined from the study at pH 7.9 not to be adequate for the more acidic Norwegian surface waters, and recommends using the data from the test performed at pH 6.5. On the formulation studies for aquatic organisms: It is the opinion of the VKM panel that the formulation studies may be used together with corresponding studies with the active ingredients as long as the studies compared are performed and evaluated according to the same principles. However, VKM notes that the formulation tests as well as the tests of the active ingredients have been performed at high pH values, which are not representative to most Norwegian surface waters. Thus, the toxic effect of dithianon shown in these tests are likely to be lower than expected under typical conditions in Norway. On the assessment factors for concentration addition in fish: It is the opinion of the VKM panel that a reduction in assessment factor for one component in a mixture cannot be used for a formulation containing components for which a similar reduction has not been accepted. On effect studies of active substances and formulations on non-target arthropods: The VKM panel shares the view of KemI that the risk assessment should be based on all available information, including the studies presented for the active substances. On the endpoint in earthworm risk assessment: VKM supports the view of KemI that the observed effects of pyrimethanil on reproduction of earthworms should be considered in the risk assessment of Malakite.

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