Forecasting emergency medicine reserve demand with a novel decomposition-ensemble methodology

AbstractAccurate prediction is a fundamental and leading work of the emergency medicine reserve management. Given that the emergency medicine reserve demand is affected by various factors during the public health events and thus the observed data are composed of different but hard-to-distinguish components, the traditional demand forecasting method is not competent for this case. To bridge this gap, this paper proposes the EMD-ELMAN-ARIMA (ELA) model which first utilizes Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) to decompose the original series into various components. The Elman neural network and ARIMA models are employed to forecast the identified components and the final forecast values are generated by integrating the individual component predictions. For the purpose of validation, an empirical study is carried out based on the influenza data of Beijing from 2014 to 2018. The results clearly show the superiority of the proposed ELA algorithm over its two rivals including the ARIMA and ELMAN models.

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Using a Combined Method to Forecasting Electricity Demand

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.678.120 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 678 ◽

pp. 120-125

Author(s):

Xiang Quan Gui ◽

Li Li ◽

Peng Shou Xie ◽

Jie Cao

Keyword(s):

New South ◽

Demand Forecasting ◽

Electricity Demand ◽

Seasonal Adjustment ◽

Combined Method ◽

Elman Neural Network ◽

Electricity Demand Forecasting ◽

South Wales ◽

Electric Market ◽

Forecasting Method

In electric market, accurate electricity demand forecasting is often needed. Because electricity demand forecasting has become needful for creators and purchasers in the electric markets at present. But in electricity demand forecasting, noise signals, caused by various unstable factors, often corrupt demand series. In order to seek accurate demand forecasting methods, this article proposed a new combined electric load forecasting method (WSENN) which based on Wavelet Transform (WT), Seasonal Adjustment (SA) and Elman Neural Network (ENN) to forecast electricity demand. The effectiveness of WSENN is tested by applying the data from New South Wales (NSW) of Australia. Experimental results demonstrate that the WSENN model can offer more precise results than other methods that had mentioned in other literatures.

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Can Private Insurers Fail to Cream-Skim the Public Option? Evidence from the Individual Mandate in Germany.

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.2536520 ◽

2014 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Maria Polyakova

Keyword(s):

The Public ◽

Individual Mandate ◽

The Individual

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Public Service Motivation in Buffy the Vampire Slayer

Public Voices ◽

10.22140/pv.71 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 67 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Sharon Mastracci

Keyword(s):

Popular Culture ◽

Public Service ◽

Public Service Motivation ◽

Public Servants ◽

Buffy The Vampire Slayer ◽

The Public ◽

American Popular Culture ◽

Public Servant ◽

Definition Of ◽

The Individual

In this paper, the author examines public service as depicted in the television series Buffy the Vampire Slayer (BtVS). First, she shows how slaying meets the economist’s definition of a public good, using the BtVS episode “Flooded” (6.04). Second, she discusses public service motivation (PSM) to determine whether or not Buffy, a public servant, operates from a public service ethic. Relying on established measures and evidence from shooting scripts and episode transcripts, the author concludes Buffy is a public servant motivated by a public service ethic. In this way, BtVS informs scholarship on public service by broadening the concept of PSM beyond the public sector; prompting one to wonder whether it is located in a sector, an occupation, or in the individual. These conclusions allow the author to situate Buffy alongside other idealized public servants in American popular culture.

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What Can Economists Contribute to the Common Good Tradition?

10.1093/oso/9780190670054.003.0003 ◽

2017 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Andrew M. Yuengert

Keyword(s):

Common Good ◽

Common Pool Resources ◽

Economic Approach ◽

Public And Private ◽

Private Provision ◽

The Public ◽

The Common Good ◽

The Common ◽

The Individual ◽

Insight Into

Although most economists are skeptical of or puzzled by the Catholic concept of the common good, a rejection of the economic approach as inimical to the common good would be hasty and counterproductive. Economic analysis can enrich the common good tradition in four ways. First, economics embodies a deep respect for economic agency and for the effects of policy and institutions on individual agents. Second, economics offers a rich literature on the nature of unplanned order and how it might be shaped by policy. Third, economics offers insight into the public and private provision of various kinds of goods (private, public, common pool resources). Fourth, recent work on the development and logic of institutions and norms emphasizes sustainability rooted in the good of the individual.

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The impact of end-userś participation (cancer patients) during the optimization process

European Journal of Public Health ◽

10.1093/eurpub/ckaa165.1437 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽

Author(s):

S Houwaart

Keyword(s):

End Users ◽

Public Health Care ◽

Optimization Process ◽

Patient Organization ◽

End User ◽

The Public ◽

Patient Organizations ◽

Crucial Information ◽

The Individual ◽

The Impact

Abstract End-user (e.g. patients or the public) testing of information material is becoming more common in the German public health care system. However, including the end-user (in this case patients) in an optimisation process and thus enabling a close collaboration while developing PIMs is still rare. This is surprising, given the fact that patients provide the exact perspective one is trying to address. Within the isPO project, a patient organization is included as a legal project partner to act as the patient representative and provide the patient's perspective. As such, the patient organization was included in the PHR approach as part of the PIM-optimisation team. During the optimisation process, the patients gave practical insights into the procedures of diagnosing and treating different types of cancer as well as into the patient's changing priorities and challenges at different time points. This was crucial information for the envisioned application of the individual PIMs and their hierarchical overview. Moreover, the developed PIM-checklist enabled the patients to give detailed feedback to the PIMs. With their experience of being in the exact situation in which the PIMs will be applied, their recommendations, especially on the wording and layout of the materials, have been a valuable contribution to the PIM optimisation process. In this part of the seminar, we will take a closer look at the following skill building aspects: What is gained from including patients as end-users in the development and optimization of PIM?How can we reach patients to contribute to a PIM optimization process? Which requirements and prerequisites do patients have to provide to successfully work on an optimisation team?How to compromise and weigh opinions when different ideas occur? Altogether, this part will construct a structured path of productive patient involvement and help to overcome uncertainties regarding a collaboration with patient organizations.

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Urban integrated energy demand forecasting method considering multi-station fusion

IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science ◽

10.1088/1755-1315/651/2/022084 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 651 (2) ◽

pp. 022084

Author(s):

Haoyu Wu ◽

Jiaxin Ma ◽

Chunyan Zhang ◽

Hua Zhou ◽

Shimin Bian ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Energy Demand ◽

Demand Forecasting ◽

Forecasting Method ◽

Energy Demand Forecasting

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Moving an Evidence-Based Policy Agenda Forward: Leadership Tips From the Field

NASN School Nurse ◽

10.1177/1942602x18766481 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 33 (3) ◽

pp. 158-159 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Teresa Garrett

Keyword(s):

Change Process ◽

Nursing Profession ◽

Evidence Based ◽

Policy Agenda ◽

Policy Changes ◽

The Public ◽

Leverage Point ◽

Evidence Based Policy ◽

The Individual ◽

Improve Health

Advancing evidence-based policy change is a leadership challenge that nurses should embrace. Key tips to ensure that evidence-based policy changes are successful at the individual, community, and population levels are offered to help nurses through the change process. The public trust in the nursing profession is a leverage point that should be used to advance the use of evidence, expedite change, and improve health for students and across communities.

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Feeling Uncertainty during the Lockdown That Commenced in March 2020 in Greece

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18105105 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (10) ◽

pp. 5105

Author(s):

Dimitris Zavras

Keyword(s):

Lower Class ◽

Individual Characteristics ◽

International Literature ◽

Older Individuals ◽

The European Union ◽

Emotional Status ◽

Limited Health Literacy ◽

The Public ◽

Limited Health ◽

The Individual

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in significant uncertainty for the global population. However, since not all population groups experience the impacts of the pandemic in the same way, the objective of this study was to identify the individual characteristics associated with the feeling of uncertainty during the lockdown that commenced in March 2020 in Greece. The study used data from the “Public Opinion in the European Union (EU) in Time of Coronavirus Crisis” survey. The sample consisted of 1050 individuals aged between 16 and 54 years. According to the analysis, which was based on a logistic regression model, the emotional status of older individuals, those who experienced income and job losses since the beginning of the pandemic, and middle-class and high-class individuals, is more likely to be described as a feeling of uncertainty. In addition, the emotional status of individuals with less concern for their own health and that of family and friends is less likely to be described as a feeling of uncertainty. Although the results related to age, income, and job losses, as regards concern for health, agree with the international literature, the limited health literacy of lower-class individuals may explain the reduced likelihood of their experiencing feelings of uncertainty. The results confirm the international literature describing several aspects of uncertainty due to the COVID-19 crisis.

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A Descriptive Analysis of the Use of Twitter by Emergency Medicine Residency Programs

Journal of Graduate Medical Education ◽

10.4300/jgme-d-16-00716.1 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 51-55 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

David Diller ◽

Lalena M. Yarris

Keyword(s):

Emergency Medicine ◽

Medical Education ◽

Descriptive Analysis ◽

Descriptive Statistics ◽

Mixed Methods Study ◽

Instructional Tool ◽

Residency Programs ◽

The Public ◽

Twitter Account ◽

E Mail

ABSTRACT Background Twitter is increasingly recognized as an instructional tool by the emergency medicine (EM) community. In 2012, the Council of Residency Directors in Emergency Medicine (CORD) recommended that EM residency programs' Twitter accounts be managed solely by faculty. To date, little has been published regarding the patterns of Twitter use by EM residency programs. Objective We analyzed current patterns in Twitter use among EM residency programs with accounts and assessed conformance with CORD recommendations. Methods In this mixed methods study, a 6-question, anonymous survey was distributed via e-mail using SurveyMonkey. In addition, a Twitter-based search was conducted, and the public profiles of EM residency programs' Twitter accounts were analyzed. We calculated descriptive statistics and performed a qualitative analysis on the data. Results Of 168 Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education–accredited EM programs, 88 programs (52%) responded. Of those programs, 58% (51 of 88) reported having a program-level Twitter account. Residents served as content managers for those accounts in the majority of survey respondents (61%, 28 of 46). Most programs did not publicly disclose the identity or position of their Twitter content manager. We found a wide variety of applications for Twitter, with EM programs most frequently using Twitter for educational and promotional purposes. There is significant variability in the numbers of followers for EM programs' Twitter accounts. Conclusions Applications and usage among EM residency programs are varied, and are frequently not consistent with current CORD recommendations.

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