Violent Death Rates: The US Compared with Other High-income OECD Countries, 2010

After decades of robust growth, the rise in US life expectancy stalled after 2010. Explanations for the stall have focused on rising drug-related deaths. Here we show that a stagnating decline in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality was the main culprit, outpacing and overshadowing the effects of all other causes of death. The CVD stagnation held back the increase of US life expectancy at age 25 y by 1.14 y in women and men, between 2010 and 2017. Rising drug-related deaths had a much smaller effect: 0.1 y in women and 0.4 y in men. Comparisons with other high-income countries reveal that the US CVD stagnation is unusually strong, contributing to a stark mortality divergence between the US and peer nations. Without the aid of CVD mortality declines, future US life expectancy gains must come from other causes—a monumental task given the enormity of earlier declines in CVD death rates. Reversal of the drug overdose epidemic will be beneficial, but insufficient for achieving pre-2010 pace of life expectancy growth.

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The Epidemiologic Transition Theory and Evidence for Cancer Transitions in the US, Select European Nations, and Japan

10.1101/2020.11.25.20238832 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Omer Gersten ◽

Magali Barbieri

Keyword(s):

Infectious Disease ◽

Infectious Diseases ◽

Cause Of Death ◽

Cancer Mortality ◽

High Income ◽

Transition Theory ◽

Epidemiologic Transition ◽

Death Rates ◽

The Us ◽

Death Data

AbstractDespite cancer being a leading cause of death worldwide, scant research has been carried out on the existence of “cancer transitions,” the idea that as nations develop, they move from a situation where infectious related cancers are prominent, to one where non-infectious related cancers dominate. We use annual cause-of-death data to produce death rates for common types of cancer in select high-income countries. We find that cancer mortality patterns parallel the epidemiologic transition, which states that as countries advance, they move from a regime where infectious diseases are most common to one where non-infectious disease are most common. An implication is that the epidemiologic transition theory as originally formulated continues to be relevant despite some researchers arguing that we need additional stages beyond the original three.

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The hazards of smoking and the benefits of cessation: a critical summation of the epidemiological evidence in high-income countries

eLife ◽

10.7554/elife.49979 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Prabhat Jha

Keyword(s):

Adult Life ◽

Premature Death ◽

The United States ◽

High Income ◽

Epidemiological Evidence ◽

Death Rates ◽

Risk Of Death ◽

The Us ◽

Former Smokers ◽

The Uk

In high-income countries, the biggest cause of premature death, defined as death before 70 years, is smoking of manufactured cigarettes. Smoking-related disease was responsible for about 41 million deaths in the United States, United Kingdom and Canada, cumulatively, from 1960 to 2020. Every million cigarettes smoked leads to one death in the US and Canada, but slightly more than one death in the UK. The 21st century hazards reveal that smokers who start smoking early in adult life and do not quit lose a decade of life expectancy versus non-smokers. Cessation, particularly before age 40 years, yields large reductions in mortality risk. Up to two-thirds of deaths among smokers are avoidable at non-smoking death rates, and former smokers have about only a quarter of the excess risk of death compared to current smokers. The gap between scientific and popular understanding of smoking hazards is surprisingly large.

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COVID-19 in Latin America: a first glance to the mortality

Colombia Medica ◽

10.25100/cm.v51i2.4366 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-3 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Nubia Muñoz

Keyword(s):

Latin America ◽

Latin American ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

European Countries ◽

Death Rates ◽

Death Toll ◽

The United Kingdom ◽

Health Authorities ◽

The Us ◽

Latin American Countries

It is too early to know which will be the final death toll from the Covid-19 or SARS-CoV-2 virus epidemy in Latin America since the epidemy is still active and we will not know when it will end. The curve for new infections and deaths has not reached yet a peak (Figure 1). In addition, we know little about the epidemiology of this new virus. The daily litany of the number of people infected with the number of admissions to hospitals and intensive care units and the number of deaths guides health authorities to plan health services and politicians to gauge the degree of confinement necessary to control the transmission of the virus, but it says little about the magnitude of the problem if we do not relate it to the population at risk. At the end of the pandemic, we will be able to estimate age-standardized death rates for the different countries, but until then the crude death rates will provide a first glance or snapshot of the death toll and impact of the pandemic from March to May 2020. These rates are well below those estimated in other countries in Europe and North America: Belgium (82.6), Spain (58.0), the United Kingdom (57.5), Italy (55.0), France (42.9), Sweden (41.4), and the US (30.7). (Johns Hopkins CSSE, May 30, 2020). However, in the European countries and the US the number of deaths has reached a peak, while this is not the case in Latin American countries. (Figure 1). It should be taken into account that the above rates are crude and therefore, some of the differences could be due to the fact that European countries have a larger proportion of the population over 70 years of age in whom higher mortality rates have been reported.

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Population-level analysis of antibiotic use and death rates in beef feedlots over ten years in three cattle-feeding regions of the United States

Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association ◽

10.2460/javma.20.10.0560 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-7

Author(s):

Stephanie C. Rutten-Ramos ◽

Shabbir Simjee ◽

Michelle S. Calvo-Lorenzo ◽

Jason L. Bargen

Keyword(s):

Death Rate ◽

Live Weight ◽

Population Level ◽

Antibiotic Use ◽

The United States ◽

Death Rates ◽

Cattle Feeding ◽

The Us ◽

Rate Ratios ◽

Beef Feedlots

Abstract OBJECTIVE To assess antibiotic use and other factors associated with death rates in beef feedlots in 3 regions of the US over a 10-year period. SAMPLE Data for 186,297 lots (groups) of finished cattle marketed between 2010 and 2019 were obtained from a database representing feedlots in the central, high, and north plains of the US. PROCEDURES Descriptive statistics were generated. Generalized linear mixed models were used to estimate lot death rates for each region, sex (steer or heifer), and cattle origin (Mexico or the US) combination. Death rate was calculated as the (number of deaths/number of cattle placed in the lot) × 100. Lot antibiotic use (TotalActiveMG/KGOut) was calculated as the total milligrams of active antibiotics assigned to the lot per live weight (in kilograms) of cattle marketed from the lot. Rate ratios were calculated to evaluate the respective associations between lot death rate and characteristics of cattle and antibiotic use. RESULTS Mean death rate increased during the 10-year period, peaking in 2018. Mean number of days on feed also increased over time. Mean TotalActiveMG/KGOut was greatest in 2014 and 2015, lowest in 2017, and moderated in 2018 and 2019. Death rate was positively associated with the number of days on feed and had a nonlinear association with TotalActiveMG/KGOut. Feeding medicated feed articles mitigated death rate. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Results suggested a balance between disease prevention and control in feedlots for cattle with various risk profiles. Additional data sources are needed to assess TotalActiveMG/KGOut across the cattle lifetime.

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Income Tax Complexity Faced by Multinational Corporations: A Comparative Study of Canada, the United States, and Other Selected OECD Countries

Canadian Tax Journal/Revue fiscale canadienne ◽

10.32721/ctj.2021.69.3.sturm ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 69 (3) ◽

pp. 745-790

Author(s):

Susann Sturm

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Multinational Corporations ◽

Income Tax ◽

Transfer Pricing ◽

The United States ◽

Oecd Countries ◽

The Us ◽

Tax Complexity ◽

Medium Level ◽

Foreign Corporations

This study examines the complexity of Canada's corporate income tax system from the perspective of multinational corporations and compares it with the complexity of the US system, also taking into account measures of complexity for 19 other member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The author finds that with regard to the Canadian tax code, the most complex laws are those on corporate reorganization, transfer pricing, and controlled foreign corporations, and with regard to the Canadian tax framework, the most complex areas are tax audits, tax-law enactment, and tax guidance. In comparison with other OECD countries, Canada is remarkably similar to the United States. Both countries have a medium level of overall complexity, and both have a more complex tax code but a less complex tax framework than other countries. However, a closer examination of the Canadian and US tax codes and tax frameworks reveals some significant differences in complexity levels, particularly in respect of certain tax laws.

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Violent Death in Children in a Metropolitan County: Changing Patterns of Homicide, 1958 to 1982

PEDIATRICS ◽

10.1542/peds.78.6.1013 ◽

1986 ◽

Vol 78 (6) ◽

pp. 1013-1020

Author(s):

Jerome A. Paulson ◽

Norman B. Rushforth

Keyword(s):

Community Violence ◽

The United States ◽

Adolescent And Young Adult ◽

Violent Death ◽

Older Children ◽

Death Rates ◽

Adult Men ◽

Metropolitan County ◽

Changing Patterns ◽

Fatal Child Abuse

Death rates from homicide in children younger than 15 years of age in the United States have increased during the last 30 years. Previous studies have suggested a typology consisting of fatal child abuse in young children and community violence in older children. We reviewed the data from the Cuyahoga County, Ohio, coroner's office pertaining to homicides in children less than 15 years of age between 1958 and 1982 and obtained similar findings. The homicide rates for city children increased from 1.1 to 6.7/100,000 in the first 20 years and then stabilized. Nonwhite boys had the highest death rates except in one period. Assailants were usually adolescent and young adult men of the same race; however, 43% of children less than 5 years of age were killed by women. The older the child, the more likely the homicide was to have been committed by a nonrelative, outside of the home, and with a firearm. Overall, firearms are the leading cause of homicide (36.2%). The temporal characteristics of child homicides are also described.

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Is the long-term decline in cardiovascular-disease mortality in high-income countries over? Evidence from national vital statistics

International Journal of Epidemiology ◽

10.1093/ije/dyz143 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 48 (6) ◽

pp. 1815-1823 ◽

Cited By ~ 33

Author(s):

Alan D Lopez ◽

Tim Adair

Keyword(s):

Cardiovascular Disease ◽

Mortality Rate ◽

Vital Statistics ◽

High Income ◽

World Health ◽

Death Rates ◽

Males And Females ◽

Rate Of Decline ◽

Cvd Mortality

Abstract Background The substantial decline in cardiovascular-disease (CVD) mortality in high-income countries has underpinned their increasing longevity over the past half-century. However, recent evidence suggests this long-term decline may have stagnated, and even reversed in younger populations. We assess recent CVD-mortality trends in high-income populations and discuss the findings in relation to trends in risk factors. Methods We used vital statistics since 2000 for 23 high-income countries published in the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Age-standardized CVD death rates by sex for all ages, and at ages 35–74 years, were calculated and smoothed using LOWESS regression. Findings were contrasted with the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study. Results The rate of decline in CVD mortality has slowed considerably in most countries in recent years for both males and females, particularly at ages 35–74 years. Based on the latest year of data, the decline in the CVD-mortality rate at ages 35–74 years was <2% (about half the annual average since 2000) for at least one sex in more than half the countries. In North America (US males and females, Canada females), the CVD-mortality rate even increased in the most recent year. The GBD Study estimates, after correcting for misdiagnoses, suggest an even more alarming reversal, with CVD death rates rising in seven countries for at least one sex in 2017. The rate of decline and initial level of CVD mortality appear largely unrelated. Conclusions A significant slowdown in CVD-mortality decline is now apparent across high-income countries with diverse epidemiological environments. High and increasing obesity levels, limited potential future gains from further reducing already low smoking prevalence, especially in English-speaking countries, and persistent inequalities in mortality risk pose significant challenges for public policy to promote better cardiovascular health.

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Projection of cancer incidence and death to 2040 in the US: Impact of cancer screening and a changing demographic.

Journal of Clinical Oncology ◽

10.1200/jco.2020.38.15_suppl.1566 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽

pp. 1566-1566 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Lola Rahib ◽

Mackenzie Wehner ◽

Lynn McCormick Matrisian ◽

Kevin Thomas Nead

Keyword(s):

Breast Cancer ◽

Colorectal Cancer ◽

Lung Cancer ◽

Cancer Screening ◽

Cancer Incidence ◽

Intrahepatic Bile Duct ◽

Death Rates ◽

Screening Programs ◽

Common Cancer ◽

The Us

1566 Background: Coping with the current and future burden of cancer requires an in-depth understanding of cancer incidence and death trends. As of 2020, breast, lung, prostate, and colorectal cancer are the most incident cancers, while lung, colorectal, pancreas, and breast cancer result in the most deaths. Here we integrate observed cancer statistics and trends with observed and estimated US demographic data to project cancer incidences and deaths to the year 2040. Methods: Demographic cancer-specific delay-adjusted incidence and death rates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (2014-2016) were combined with US Census Bureau population growth projections (2016) and average annual percentage changes in incidence (2011-2015) and death (2012-2016) rates to project cancer incidences and deaths through the year 2040. We examined the 10 most incident and deadly cancers as of 2020. We utilized Joinpoint analysis to examine changes in incidence and death rates over time relative to changes in screening guidelines. Results: We predict the most incident cancers in 2040 in the US will be breast (322,000 diagnoses in 2040) and lung (182,000 diagnoses in 2040) cancer. Continuing decades long observed incident rate trends we predict that melanoma (173,000 diagnoses in 2040) will become the 3rd most common cancer while prostate cancer (63,000 diagnoses in 2040) will become the 5th most common cancer after colorectal cancer (139,000 diagnoses in 2040). Lung cancer (61,000 deaths in 2040) is predicted to continue to be the leading cause of cancer related death, with pancreas (45,000 deaths in 2040) and liver & intrahepatic bile duct (38,000 deaths in 2040) cancer surpassing colorectal cancer (34,000 deaths in 2040) to become the second and third most common causes of cancer related death, respectively. Breast cancer deaths (29,000 in 2040) are predicted to continue to decrease and become the fifth most common cause of cancer death. Joinpoint analysis of incidence and death rates supports a significant past, present, and future impact of cancer screening programs on the number of cancer diagnoses and deaths, particularly for prostate, thyroid, melanoma incidences, and lung cancer deaths. Conclusions: We demonstrate marked changes in the predicted landscape of cancer incidence and deaths by 2040. Our analysis reveals an influence of cancer screening programs on the number of cancer diagnoses and deaths in future years. These projections are important to guide future research funding allocations, healthcare planning, and health policy efforts.

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