Forecasting the real prices of crude oil using robust regression models with regularization constraints

2020 ◽  
Vol 86 ◽  
pp. 104683 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianfeng Hao ◽  
Yuyang Zhao ◽  
Yudong Wang
1998 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 549-568
Author(s):  
Noel D. Uri

The impact of energy on the adoption of conservation tillage is of special importance in addressing concerns about the effect of agricultural production on the environment in the United States. It is the subject of this paper. After establishing that a relationship exists between the price of energy and the adoption of conservation tillage via cointegration techniques, the relationship is quantified. It is shown that while the real price of crude oil, the proxy used for the price of energy, does not affect the rate of adoption of conservation tillage, it does impact the extent to which it is used. Finally, there is no structural instability in the relationship between the relative use of conservation tillage and the real price of crude oil over the period 1963 to 1997.


2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 5397-5404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Luo ◽  
Tao Hong ◽  
Shu-Cherng Fang

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 233-264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiwon Jung ◽  
Barry Bozeman ◽  
Monica Gaughan

When employees fear punishment for taking initiative, organizations are likely to be less effective and, equally important, such fear extracts a human toll, often contributing to a variety of manifestations of unhappiness including diminished health. We focus on two different types of fears of punishment, fear of being punished for presenting new ideas and for bending organizational rules. Employing Mechanical Turk crowdsourcing data from 1,189 participants in the 2015 survey of National Administrative Studies Project Citizen, we test hypotheses about possible differences in fear of punishment according to sector (government vs. business), general risk propensity, views about coworkers, job clarity, gender, and whether respondents are members of an underrepresented racial or ethnic minority. Using nested robust regression models, we find that the two different types of fear of punishment are predicted by different variables. Sector has no bearing on fear of punishment for presenting new ideas but is a major predictor of differences in fear of bending the rules, with government employees being more fearful. While gender has no significant effects, being a racial minority is closely related to fear of presenting new ideas. Having a negative view of one’s fellow workers, particularly one’s supervisor, is associated with greater fear of punishment from both rule bending and presenting new ideas. Those with a clear organization mission and job clarity are less likely to be afraid of punishment for proposing innovative ideas but not necessarily for bending rules. We suggest that the results have implications for managerial practice and human resource reform.


Author(s):  
Andrea Elekes ◽  
Roland Nagy ◽  
László Bartha ◽  
Árpád Vágó

This paper considers anionic and nonionic surfactants, as candidates for crude oil production by enhancement applications. In this study some colloidal properties of surfactants were tested by conventional and new test methods. The oil in water type emulsions have great importance in the petroleum industry. The stability of crude oil in water emulsions are investigated in a wide range of physical and chemical circumstances. Investigations at 10 bar are needed to get knowledges on the real conditions of the given petroleum exploration processes. A special glass cell was used for the tests of the mixtures various crude oil-water emulsions under hydrocarbon gas atmosphere and for the oil disclapement efficiency. Based on the experimental results it was found that emulsifying capacity was changed significantly by the real process conditions. The decrease of the density of hydrocarbon phase was contributed to the overall reduction in the efficiency of emulsifiers also occurred. Based on the experimented data it is supported to pay more attention to apply the real test conditions or approximate the real values.


2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hem C. Basnet ◽  
Puneet Vatsa ◽  
Subhash Sharma

This study explores the long- and short-run movement between oil prices and the real exchange rates of two large oil-exporting countries – Canada and Norway. Cointegration and serial correlation common features tests are jointly used to identify the long-term common trend and short-term common cycles. Our test results find that oil prices and the real exchange rates of the Canadian Dollar and the Norwegian Krone have two shared trends and one shared cycle. The trend–cycle decomposition shows a great deal of positive comovement among the trend and cyclical components. The two currencies show economic dynamics very similar to crude oil prices. They do not exhibit any qualitative differences in the trajectory of the trend and cycles when controlling for different crude oil prices. Our results indicate that oil price fluctuations play significant role in explaining the exchange rate movements of oil-exporting countries.


2018 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-86
Author(s):  
Taciana Shimizu ◽  
Francisco Louzada ◽  
Adriano Suzuki

In this paper, we consider to evaluate the efficiency of volleyball players according to the performance of attack, block and serve, but considering the compositional structure of the data related to the fundaments. The finite mixture of regression models better fitted the data in comparison with the usual regression model. The maximum likelihood estimates are obtained via an EM algorithm. A simulation study revels that the estimates are closer to the real values, the estimators are asymptotically unbiased for the parameters. A real Brazilian volleyball dataset related to the efficiency of the players is considered for the analysis.


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