Modeling the current land suitability and future dynamics of global soybean cultivation under climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 263 ◽  
pp. 108069
Author(s):  
Lu Feng ◽  
Hongyan Wang ◽  
Xiaowei Ma ◽  
Hongbo Peng ◽  
Jianrong Shan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Suitability ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

scholarly journals Land in Central America will become less suitable for coffee cultivation under climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonel Lara-Estrada ◽  
Livia Rasche ◽  
Uwe A. Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central America ◽  
Relative Concentration ◽  
Land Suitability ◽  
Land Evaluation ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Coffee Production ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Coffee Cultivation

AbstractCoffee cultivation in Central America provides goods and services at local, national, and international levels. Climate change is likely to affect the magnitude and continuity of these benefits by reducing the land suitability for coffee cultivation. To quantify the impacts of climate change on land suitability, we use the Bayesian network model Agroecological Land Evaluation for Coffea arabica L. (ALECA) and estimate the land suitability for coffee production in 2000, 2050, and 2080 under three climate change scenarios based on relative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Results indicate that even under the less severe climate scenarios, over half of the current coffee area in Central America will experience a decline in its land suitability for coffee production, from excellent or good to moderate and marginal, and that the change will not happen in the more distant future of 2080, but by 2050. Under RCP 8.5, most coffee areas become of marginal and moderate suitability. The findings show that the continuity of coffee cultivation in a large portion of coffee areas in Central America is under threat and that farmers and policy-makers should develop adaptation portfolios for their farms and regions in a timely manner.

Evaluation of the Impacts of Climate Change on Land Suitability for Jatropha Cultivation

2014 ◽  
Vol 955-959 ◽  
pp. 3777-3782 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao Feng Zhao ◽  
Bin Le Lin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rank Order ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Land Suitability ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The West ◽  
The North ◽  
North And South ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

We evaluated land suitability for Jatropha cultivation at a global scale under current and future climate scenarios. Areas that are suitable for Jatropha cultivation include southern South America, the west and southeast coasts of Africa, the north of South Asia, and the north and south coasts of Australia. In the predicted climate change scenarios, areas near the equator become less suitable for Jatropha cultivation, and areas further from the equator become more suitable. Our analyses suggest that the rank order of the six climate change scenarios, from the smallest to the largest effects on Jatropha cultivation, was as follows: B1, A1T/B2, A1B, A2, and A1FI.

Land suitability levels for rainfed maize under current conditions and climate change projections in Mexico

2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 181-191 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge López-Blanco ◽  
José Luis Pérez-Damián ◽  
Ana Cecilia Conde-Álvarez ◽  
Jesús David Gómez-Díaz ◽  
Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
National Level ◽  
Land Suitability ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Maize Crop ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Level Analysis

An assessment of land suitability classes for rainfed maize (spring–summer agricultural cycle) with current climate conditions (1950–2000) and projected climate change scenarios was carried out for Mexico. The method considered the most restrictive factors or agroclimatic requirements from different variables needed by rainfed maize. These factors were analyzed spatially in a geographic information systems (GIS) context, resulting in areas classified into four suitability levels: high, medium, low, and not suitable for maize. We considered two general circulation models (GCM): HADGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-LR; one radiative forcing concentration representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 Wm−2 and the far period (2075–2099). Results at a national-level analysis showed that under actual conditions, 57.5% of the area of Mexico presents some level of suitability for rainfed maize. The high suitability class is 11.4% of the country, while 20.7% and 25.3% had medium and low suitability levels, respectively. Other results showed that with the HADGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-LR projections of climate change models, 50.4% and 46.7%, of Mexico’s continental area, respectively, present some level of suitability for the rainfed maize crop. In the first case, with respect to the present climate conditions, the HADGEM2-ES model presented an area decrease of −2.4% and the MPI-ESM-LR model of −5.5% in the high suitability level for the rainfed maize crop. Results at a state-level analysis showed there are five states (Jalisco, Campeche, Oaxaca, Chiapas, and Michoacán) in the interval of more than 50,000 km2 of surface with high and medium suitability levels, with a maximum extent change between the present to the projected climate conditions of −46% for the HADGEM2-ES and −57% for the MPI-ESM-LR. In general, the MPI-ESM-LR model showed the most adverse projected conditions for rainfed maize growth.

Modelling impacts of different climate change scenarios on soil water regime of a Mollisol

2005 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 185-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Csilla Farkas ◽  
Roger Randriamampianina ◽  
Juraj Majerčak
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Water ◽  
Water Regime ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Soil Water Regime

scholarly journals Tackling G × E × M interactions to close on-farm yield-gaps: creating novel pathways for crop improvement by predicting contributions of genetics and management to crop productivity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Cooper ◽  
Kai P. Voss-Fels ◽  
Carlos D. Messina ◽  
Tom Tang ◽  
Graeme L. Hammer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Improvement ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Crop Productivity ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Global Food Security ◽  
Genotype By Environment ◽  
Improvement Strategies ◽  
Yield Gaps ◽  
On Farm

Abstract Key message Climate change and Genotype-by-Environment-by-Management interactions together challenge our strategies for crop improvement. Research to advance prediction methods for breeding and agronomy is opening new opportunities to tackle these challenges and overcome on-farm crop productivity yield-gaps through design of responsive crop improvement strategies. Abstract Genotype-by-Environment-by-Management (G × E × M) interactions underpin many aspects of crop productivity. An important question for crop improvement is “How can breeders and agronomists effectively explore the diverse opportunities within the high dimensionality of the complex G × E × M factorial to achieve sustainable improvements in crop productivity?” Whenever G × E × M interactions make important contributions to attainment of crop productivity, we should consider how to design crop improvement strategies that can explore the potential space of G × E × M possibilities, reveal the interesting Genotype–Management (G–M) technology opportunities for the Target Population of Environments (TPE), and enable the practical exploitation of the associated improved levels of crop productivity under on-farm conditions. Climate change adds additional layers of complexity and uncertainty to this challenge, by introducing directional changes in the environmental dimension of the G × E × M factorial. These directional changes have the potential to create further conditional changes in the contributions of the genetic and management dimensions to future crop productivity. Therefore, in the presence of G × E × M interactions and climate change, the challenge for both breeders and agronomists is to co-design new G–M technologies for a non-stationary TPE. Understanding these conditional changes in crop productivity through the relevant sciences for each dimension, Genotype, Environment, and Management, creates opportunities to predict novel G–M technology combinations suitable to achieve sustainable crop productivity and global food security targets for the likely climate change scenarios. Here we consider critical foundations required for any prediction framework that aims to move us from the current unprepared state of describing G × E × M outcomes to a future responsive state equipped to predict the crop productivity consequences of G–M technology combinations for the range of environmental conditions expected for a complex, non-stationary TPE under the influences of climate change.

scholarly journals Mapping current and potential future distributions of the oak tree (Quercus aegilops) in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabaz R. Khwarahm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Oak Tree

Abstract Background The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. Results The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. Conclusions The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.

Impact assessment of common bean availability in Brazil under climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 191 ◽  
pp. 103174
Author(s):  
Luís A.S. Antolin ◽  
Alexandre B. Heinemann ◽  
Fábio R. Marin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Common Bean ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

scholarly journals Elevated temperature and browning increase dietary methylmercury, but decrease essential fatty acids at the base of lake food webs

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pianpian Wu ◽  
Martin J. Kainz ◽  
Fernando Valdés ◽  
Siwen Zheng ◽  
Katharina Winter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fatty Acids ◽  
Organic Matter ◽  
Food Webs ◽  
Essential Fatty Acids ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Essential Nutrients ◽  
Aquatic Food Webs ◽  
Aquatic Food

AbstractClimate change scenarios predict increases in temperature and organic matter supply from land to water, which affect trophic transfer of nutrients and contaminants in aquatic food webs. How essential nutrients, such as polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), and potentially toxic contaminants, such as methylmercury (MeHg), at the base of aquatic food webs will be affected under climate change scenarios, remains unclear. The objective of this outdoor mesocosm study was to examine how increased water temperature and terrestrially-derived dissolved organic matter supply (tDOM; i.e., lake browning), and the interaction of both, will influence MeHg and PUFA in organisms at the base of food webs (i.e. seston; the most edible plankton size for zooplankton) in subalpine lake ecosystems. The interaction of higher temperature and tDOM increased the burden of MeHg in seston (< 40 μm) and larger sized plankton (microplankton; 40–200 μm), while the MeHg content per unit biomass remained stable. However, PUFA decreased in seston, but increased in microplankton, consisting mainly of filamentous algae, which are less readily bioavailable to zooplankton. We revealed elevated dietary exposure to MeHg, yet decreased supply of dietary PUFA to aquatic consumers with increasing temperature and tDOM supply. This experimental study provides evidence that the overall food quality at the base of aquatic food webs deteriorates during ongoing climate change scenarios by increasing the supply of toxic MeHg and lowering the dietary access to essential nutrients of consumers at higher trophic levels.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document