Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020

AbstractBackgroundSince the first cluster of cases was identified in Wuhan City, China, in December, 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly spread around the world. Despite the scarcity of publicly available data, scientists around the world have made strides in estimating the magnitude of the epidemic, the basic reproduction number, and transmission patterns. Accumulating evidence suggests that a substantial fraction of the infected individuals with the novel coronavirus show little if any symptoms, which highlights the need to reassess the transmission potential of this emerging disease. In this study, we derive estimates of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China, by reconstructing the underlying transmission dynamics using multiple data sources.MethodsWe employ statistical methods and publicly available epidemiological datasets to jointly derive estimates of transmissibility and severity associated with the novel coronavirus. For this purpose, the daily series of laboratory–confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Wuhan City together with epidemiological data of Japanese repatriated from Wuhan City on board government–chartered flights were integrated into our analysis.ResultsOur posterior estimates of basic reproduction number (R) in Wuhan City, China in 2019–2020 reached values at 3.49 (95%CrI: 3.39–3.62) with a mean serial interval of 6.0 days, and the enhanced public health intervention after January 23rd in 2020 was associated with a significantly reduced R at 0.84 (95%CrI: 0.81–0.88), with the total number of infections (i.e. cumulative infections) estimated at 1906634 (95%CrI: 1373500–2651124) in Wuhan City, elevating the overall proportion of infected individuals to 19.1% (95%CrI: 13.5–26.6%). We also estimated the most recent crude infection fatality ratio (IFR) and time–delay adjusted IFR at 0.04% (95% CrI: 0.03%–0.06%) and 0.12% (95%CrI: 0.08–0.17%), respectively, estimates that are several orders of magnitude smaller than the crude CFR estimated at 4.06%ConclusionsWe have estimated key epidemiological parameters of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China during January-February, 2020 using an ecological modelling approach. The power of this approach lies in the ability to infer epidemiological parameters with quantified uncertainty from partial observations collected by surveillance systems.

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Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the Diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020

10.1101/2020.02.24.20027649 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Kenji Mizumoto ◽

Gerardo Chowell

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Modeling ◽

Time Series ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Transmission Dynamics ◽

The Novel ◽

Epidemic Threshold ◽

Transmission Potential ◽

Incidence Data ◽

The Mean ◽

Novel Coronavirus

AbstractAn outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January-February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak among passengers and crew members, we characterize how the transmission potential varied over the course of the outbreak. Our estimate of the mean reproduction number in the confined setting reached values as high as ∼11, which is higher than mean estimates reported from community-level transmission dynamics in China and Singapore (approximate range: 1.1-7). Our findings suggest that Rt decreased substantially compared to values during the early phase after the Japanese government implemented an enhanced quarantine control. Most recent estimates of Rt reached values largely below the epidemic threshold, indicating that a secondary outbreak of the novel coronavirus was unlikely to occur aboard the Diamond Princess Ship.

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Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

10.1101/2020.01.31.20019901 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 184

Author(s):

Adam J Kucharski ◽

Timothy W Russell ◽

Charlie Diamond ◽

Yang Liu ◽

John Edmunds ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Reproduction Number ◽

Control Measures ◽

Transmission Model ◽

The Novel ◽

Transmission Potential ◽

Travel Restrictions ◽

Gates Foundation ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

And Control ◽

Over Time

AbstractBackgroundAn outbreak of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has led to 46,997 confirmed cases as of 13th February 2020. Understanding the early transmission dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new areas.MethodsWe combined a stochastic transmission model with data on cases of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan and international cases that originated in Wuhan to estimate how transmission had varied over time during January and February 2020. Based on these estimates, we then calculated the probability that newly introduced cases might generate outbreaks in other areas.FindingsWe estimated that the median daily reproduction number, Rt, declined from 2.35 (95% CI: 1.15-4.77) one week before travel restrictions were introduced on 23rd January to 1.05 (95% CI: 0.413-2.39) one week after. Based on our estimates of Rt,we calculated that in locations with similar transmission potential as Wuhan in early January, once there are at least four independently introduced cases, there is a more than 50% chance the infection will establish within that population.InterpretationOur results show that COVID-19 transmission likely declined in Wuhan during late January 2020, coinciding with the introduction of control measures. As more cases arrive in international locations with similar transmission potential to Wuhan pre-control, it is likely many chains of transmission will fail to establish initially, but may still cause new outbreaks eventually.FundingWellcome Trust (206250/Z/17/Z, 210758/Z/18/Z), HDR UK (MR/S003975/1), Gates Foundation (INV-003174), NIHR (16/137/109)

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The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated

10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 61

Author(s):

Steven Sanche ◽

Yen Ting Lin ◽

Chonggang Xu ◽

Ethan Romero-Severson ◽

Nick Hengartner ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Case Reports ◽

Individual Case ◽

Control Measures ◽

Basic Reproductive Number ◽

Contact Tracing ◽

Reproductive Number ◽

The Novel ◽

Transmission Potential ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Strong Control

AbstractThe novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.One-sentence summaryBy collecting and analyzing spatiotemporal data, we estimated the transmission potential for 2019-nCoV.

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Comparative docking of SARS-CoV-2 receptors antagonists from repurposing drugs

10.26434/chemrxiv.12044538.v4 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Micael Davi Lima de Oliveira ◽

Kelson Mota Teixeira de Oliveira

Keyword(s):

World Health Organisation ◽

World Health ◽

Lung Cells ◽

The Novel ◽

High Modulation ◽

Main Protease ◽

The World ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Viral Receptors ◽

Theoretical Results

According to the World Health Organisation, until 16 June, 2020, the number of confirmed and notified cases of COVID-19 has already exceeded 7.9 million with approximately 434 thousand deaths worldwide. This research aimed to find repurposing antagonists, that may inhibit the activity of the main protease (Mpro) of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, as well as partially modulate the ACE2 receptors largely found in lung cells, and reduce viral replication by inhibiting Nsp12 RNA polymerase. Docking molecular simulations were performed among a total of 60 structures, most of all, published in the literature against the novel coronavirus. The theoretical results indicated that, in comparative terms, paritaprevir, ivermectin, ledipasvir, and simeprevir, are among the most theoretical promising drugs in remission of symptoms from the disease. Furthermore, also corroborate indinavir to the high modulation in viral receptors. The second group of promising drugs includes remdesivir and azithromycin. The repurposing drugs HCQ and chloroquine were not effective in comparative terms to other drugs, as monotherapies, against SARS-CoV-2 infection.

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SARS-COV2 virus and Coronavirus disease (COVID-19)

International Journal of Research in Pharmaceutical Sciences ◽

10.26452/ijrps.v11ispl1.3401 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽

pp. 977-982

Author(s):

Mohamed J. Saadh ◽

Bashar Haj Rashid M ◽

Roa’a Matar ◽

Sajeda Riyad Aldibs ◽

Hala Sbaih ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Close Contact ◽

Antiviral Agents ◽

Health Concern ◽

The Novel ◽

Global Public Health ◽

Fatal Disease ◽

Mild Disease ◽

Life Threatening ◽

Novel Coronavirus

SARS-COV2 virus causes Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and represents the causative agent of a potentially fatal disease that is of great global public health concern. The novel coronavirus (2019) was discovered in 2019 in Wuhan, the market of the wet animal, China with viral pneumonia cases and is life-threatening. Today, WHO announces COVID-19 outbreak as a pandemic. COVID-19 is likely to be zoonotic. It is transmitted from bats as intermediary animals to human. Also, the virus is transmitted from human to human who is in close contact with others. The computerized tomographic chest scan is usually abnormal even in those with no symptoms or mild disease. Treatment is nearly supportive; the role of antiviral agents is yet to be established. The SARS-COV2 virus spreads faster than its two ancestors, the SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), but has lower fatality. In this article, we aimed to summarize the transmission, symptoms, pathogenesis, diagnosis, treatment, and vaccine to control the spread of this fatal disease.

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Coronavirus: Towards controlling of the pandemic - Indian scenario

International Journal of Research in Pharmaceutical Sciences ◽

10.26452/ijrps.v11ispl1.2813 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽

pp. 462-468

Author(s):

Latika kothari ◽

Sanskruti Wadatkar ◽

Roshni Taori ◽

Pavan Bajaj ◽

Diksha Agrawal

Keyword(s):

Control Measures ◽

The Novel ◽

Medical Treatments ◽

Health Crisis ◽

The Public ◽

Infection Control Measures ◽

The Social ◽

Asking Questions ◽

The Government ◽

Novel Coronavirus

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a communicable infection caused by the novel coronavirus resulting in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV). It was recognized to be a health crisis for the general population of international concern on 30th January 2020 and conceded as a pandemic on 11th March 2020. India is taking various measures to fight this invisible enemy by adopting different strategies and policies. To stop the COVID-19 from spreading, the Home Affairs Ministry and the health ministry, of India, has issued the nCoV 19 guidelines on travel. Screening for COVID-19 by asking questions about any symptoms, recent travel history, and exposure. India has been trying to get testing kits available. The government of India has enforced various laws like the social distancing, Janata curfew, strict lockdowns, screening door to door to control the spread of novel coronavirus. In this pandemic, innovative medical treatments are being explored, and a proper vaccine is being hunted to deal with the situation. Infection control measures are necessary to prevent the virus from further spreading and to help control the current situation. Thus, this review illustrates and explains the criteria provided by the government of India to the awareness of the public to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

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Association and treatment of diabetes in patients affected by Covid-19

International Journal of Research in Pharmaceutical Sciences ◽

10.26452/ijrps.v11ispl1.3591 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽

pp. 1198-1201

Author(s):

Syed Yasir Afaque

Keyword(s):

Diabetes Mellitus ◽

Prognostic Value ◽

Heart Diseases ◽

The Novel ◽

The World ◽

Treatment Of Diabetes ◽

Coronavirus Infection ◽

Composite Outcomes ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

The Impact

In December 2019, a unique coronavirus infection, SARS-CoV-2, was first identified in the province of Wuhan in China. Since then, it spread rapidly all over the world and has been responsible for a large number of morbidity and mortality among humans. According to a latest study, Diabetes mellitus, heart diseases, Hypertension etc. are being considered important risk factors for the development of this infection and is also associated with unfavorable outcomes in these patients. There is little evidence concerning the trail back of these patients possibly because of a small number of participants and people who experienced primary composite outcomes (such as admission in the ICU, usage of machine-driven ventilation or even fatality of these patients). Until now, there are no academic findings that have proven independent prognostic value of diabetes on death in the novel Coronavirus patients. However, there are several conjectures linking Diabetes with the impact as well as progression of COVID-19 in these patients. The aim of this review is to acknowledge about the association amongst Diabetes and the novel Coronavirus and the result of the infection in such patients.

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The role and relationship of mindreading and social attunement in HRI – position statements of interdisciplinary researchers. Workshop HRI'20

10.31234/osf.io/3p6cd ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Agnieszka Wykowska ◽

Jairo Pérez-Osorio ◽

Stefan Kopp

Keyword(s):

Mental States ◽

Human Robot Interaction ◽

Human Interaction ◽

Artificial Agents ◽

The Novel ◽

Robot Interaction ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Relationship Of ◽

The Relationship

This booklet is a collection of the position statements accepted for the HRI’20 conference workshop “Social Cognition for HRI: Exploring the relationship between mindreading and social attunement in human-robot interaction” (Wykowska, Perez-Osorio & Kopp, 2020). Unfortunately, due to the rapid unfolding of the novel coronavirus at the beginning of the present year, the conference and consequently our workshop, were canceled. On the light of these events, we decided to put together the positions statements accepted for the workshop. The contributions collected in these pages highlight the role of attribution of mental states to artificial agents in human-robot interaction, and precisely the quality and presence of social attunement mechanisms that are known to make human interaction smooth, efficient, and robust. These papers also accentuate the importance of the multidisciplinary approach to advance the understanding of the factors and the consequences of social interactions with artificial agents.

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The Political Impact of Affective Polarization: How Partisan Animus Shapes COVID-19 Attitudes

10.31234/osf.io/ztgpn ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

James Druckman ◽

Samara Klar ◽

Yanna Krupnikov ◽

Matthew Levendusky ◽

John B. Ryan

Keyword(s):

21St Century ◽

American Politics ◽

The Other ◽

Policy Discourse ◽

The Political ◽

The Novel ◽

Political Impact ◽

Novel Coronavirus ◽

Citizens Attitudes

Affective polarization is a defining feature of 21st century American politics—partisans harbor considerable dislike and distrust of those from the other party. Does this animus have consequences for citizens’ opinions? Such effects would highlight not only the consequences of polarization, but also shed new light onto how citizens form preferences more generally. Normally, this question is intractable, but the outbreak of the novel coronavirus allows us to answer it. We find that affective polarization powerfully shapes citizens’ attitudes about the pandemic, as well as the actions they have taken in response to it. However, these effects are conditional on the local severity of the outbreak, as the effects decline in areas with high caseloads—threat vitiates partisan reasoning. Our results clarify that closing the divide on important issues requires not just policy discourse but also attempts to reduce inter-partisan hostility.

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