A system dynamics approach for assessing the impact of cyber attacks on critical infrastructures

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 3-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Béla Genge ◽  
István Kiss ◽  
Piroska Haller
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Cyber Attacks ◽  
Critical Infrastructures ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Network Attack Path Selection and Evaluation Based on Q-Learning

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 285
Author(s):  
Runze Wu ◽  
Jinxin Gong ◽  
Weiyue Tong ◽  
Bing Fan
Keyword(s):  
Distribution System ◽  
Path Selection ◽  
Cyber Attacks ◽  
Power Distribution System ◽  
Q Learning ◽  
Attack Model ◽  
Cross Domain ◽  
Time Operation ◽  
Attack Path ◽  
The Impact

As the coupling relationship between information systems and physical power grids is getting closer, various types of cyber attacks have increased the operational risks of a power cyber-physical System (CPS). In order to effectively evaluate this risk, this paper proposed a method of cross-domain propagation analysis of a power CPS risk based on reinforcement learning. First, the Fuzzy Petri Net (FPN) was used to establish an attack model, and Q-Learning was improved through FPN. The attack gain was defined from the attacker’s point of view to obtain the best attack path. On this basis, a quantitative indicator of information-physical cross-domain spreading risk was put forward to analyze the impact of cyber attacks on the real-time operation of the power grid. Finally, the simulation based on Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) 14 power distribution system verifies the effectiveness of the proposed risk assessment method.

Designing a Virtual Enterprise Architecture using Structured System Dynamics

2006 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-29
Author(s):  
Nikitas A. Assimakopoulos ◽  
Anastasios N. Riggas
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Enterprise Architecture ◽  
Business Processes ◽  
Core Competencies ◽  
Virtual Enterprise ◽  
Business Goals ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Efficient Integration ◽  
Structured System ◽  
The Impact

The starting point for establishing a Virtual Enterprise is a set of existing enterprises which might contribute with some of their functionalities (core competencies) to the formation of the virtual entity. The most important issue, in this formation, is the rapid integration of the business processes of the participating companies. The architecture of the VE must assist companies desiring to enter into a virtual relationship by defining the functions and interfaces of critical business processes, thus allowing for a more rapid and efficient integration of the expertise which will be contributed by each partner in the virtual enterprise. While the integration of computer and communication technologies are no doubt critical issues, the successful attainment of the business goals of the virtual enterprise often depends on its ability to align the business processes and practices of partner enterprises. Focus of this paper, is the presentation of Structured System Dynamics (SSPS) multi-methodology for the design and the evaluation of a Virtual Enterprise Architecture. SSPS uses Systems Thinking and System Dynamics principles as launch pad for its approach. The Systemic Methodologies of Problem Structuring Methodology (PSM) and SAST are also integrated in this new Multi-Methodology. SSPS is a new practical and scientific tool in designing and evaluating a VE architecture providing the ability to determine the impact, reliability, success of the Architectures' models created, refine them and identify potential process improvements. A framework for the rapid and efficient integration of the business processes of the participating companies in the virtual enterprise is provided. For this multi-methodology, a real-life application is also presented for a Virtual Enterprise that constructs Wireless Payment Mechanisms.

scholarly journals Long-term effectiveness of elderly health care voucher scheme strategies: a system dynamics simulation analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ka Chun Chong ◽  
Hong Fung ◽  
Carrie Ho Kwan Yam ◽  
Patsy Yuen Kwan Chau ◽  
Tsz Yu Chow ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Chronic Disease ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background The elderly healthcare voucher (EHCV) scheme is expected to lead to an increase in the number of elderly people selecting private primary healthcare services and reduce reliance on the public sector in Hong Kong. However, studies thus far have reported that this scheme has not received satisfactory responses. In this study, we examined changes in the ratio of visits between public and private doctors in primary care (to measure reliance on the public sector) for different strategic scenarios in the EHCV scheme. Methods Based on comments from an expert panel, a system dynamics model was formulated to simulate the impact of various enhanced strategies in the scheme: increasing voucher amounts, lowering the age eligibility, and designating vouchers for chronic conditions follow-up. Data and statistics for the model calibration were collected from various sources. Results The simulation results show that the current EHCV scheme is unable to reduce the utilization of public healthcare services, as well as the ratio of visits between public and private primary care among the local aging population. When comparing three different tested scenarios, even if the increase in the annual voucher amount could be maintained at the current pace or the age eligibility can be lowered to include those aged 60 years, the impact on shifts from public-to-private utilization were insignificant. The public-to-private ratio could only be marginally reduced from 0.74 to 0.64 in the first several years. Nevertheless, introducing a chronic disease-oriented voucher could result in a significant drop of 0.50 in the public-to-private ratio during the early implementation phase. However, the effect could not be maintained for an extended period. Conclusions Our findings will assist officials in improving the design of the EHCV scheme, within the wider context of promoting primary care among the elderly. We suggest that an additional chronic disease-oriented voucher can serve as an alternative strategy. The scheme must be redesigned to address more specific objectives or provide a separate voucher that promotes under-utilized healthcare services (e.g., preventive care), instead of services designed for unspecified reasons, which may lead to concerns regarding exploitation.

On the Impact of Discrete Secondary Controllers on Power System Dynamics

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Taulant Kerci ◽  
Mohammed Ahsan Adib Murad ◽  
Ioannis Dassios ◽  
Federico Milano
Keyword(s):  
Power System ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Power System Dynamics ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals COVID-19 and Beyond: Employee Perceptions of the Efficiency of Teleworking and Its Cybersecurity Implications

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 6750
Author(s):  
Andreja Mihailović ◽  
Julija Cerović Smolović ◽  
Ivan Radević ◽  
Neli Rašović ◽  
Nikola Martinović
Keyword(s):  
Information Security ◽  
Latent Variables ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Cyber Attacks ◽  
Employee Perceptions ◽  
Organizational Efficiency ◽  
Digital Information ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The Impact

The main idea of this research is to examine how teleworking has affected employee perceptions of organizational efficiency and cybersecurity before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The research is based on an analytical and empirical approach. The starting point of the research is a critical and comprehensive analysis of the relevant literature regarding the efficiency of organizations due to teleworking, digital information security, and cyber risk management. The quantitative approach is based on designing a structural equation model (SEM) on a sample of 1101 respondents from the category of employees in Montenegro. Within the model, we examine simultaneously the impact of their perceptions on the risks of teleworking, changes in cyber-attacks during teleworking, organizations’ capacity to respond to cyber-attacks, key challenges in achieving an adequate response to cyber-attacks, as well as perceptions of key challenges related to cybersecurity. The empirical aspects of our study involve constructing latent variables that correspond to different elements of employee perception; namely, their perception of organizational efficiency and the extent to which the digital information security of their organizations has been threatened during teleworking during the pandemic.

scholarly journals System Dynamics Model for the Evolutionary Behaviour of Government Enterprises and Consumers in China’s New Energy Vehicle Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1578 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongxia Sun ◽  
Yao Wan ◽  
Huirong Lv
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
Replicator Dynamics ◽  
Evolutionary Game ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Subsidy Policy ◽  
New Energy ◽  
New Energy Vehicle ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Vehicle Market

Exhaust pollution and energy crises are worsening worldwide. China has become the largest motor vehicle producer; thus, promoting the use of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China has important practical significance. In this paper, considering the limited rationality of governments, NEV enterprises and consumers, we study the subsidy policy of the China NEV market using the evolutionary game and system dynamics (SD) methods. First, a tripartite evolutionary game model is developed and the replicator dynamics equations and Jacobian matrix are obtained. A SD simulation of the model was conducted to further clarify the impact of the initial market proportion and three variables used in the model. The results show that the initial market proportion affects the evolution speed but does not affect the evolution result when the three group players all choose a mixed strategy. For governments, they should not hastily cancel price subsidies provided to consumers; rather, they should dynamically adjust the rate of the subsidy decrease and increase the consumers’ extra cost for purchasing fuel vehicles (FVs). NEV enterprises should appropriately increase their investments in the research and development (R&D) of NEVs.

Computing the impact of cyber attacks on complex missions

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Musman ◽  
Mike Tanner ◽  
Aaron Temin ◽  
Evan Elsaesser ◽  
Lewis Loren
Keyword(s):  
Cyber Attacks ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Fuzzy-Based Symmetrical Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Procedure for Evaluating the Impact of Harmful Factors of Healthcare Information Security

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 664 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajeev Kumar ◽  
Abhishek Kumar Pandey ◽  
Abdullah Baz ◽  
Hosam Alhakami ◽  
Wajdi Alhakami ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Information Security ◽  
Information Management ◽  
Cyber Security ◽  
Cyber Attacks ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Local Hospital ◽  
Healthcare Information ◽  
Security Breaches ◽  
The Impact

Growing concern about healthcare information security in the wake of alarmingly rising cyber-attacks is being given symmetrical priority by current researchers and cyber security experts. Intruders are penetrating symmetrical mechanisms of healthcare information security continuously. In the same league, the paper presents an overview on the current situation of healthcare information and presents a layered model of healthcare information management in organizations. The paper also evaluates the various factors that have a key contribution in healthcare information security breaches through a hybrid fuzzy-based symmetrical methodology of AHP-TOPSIS. Furthermore, for assessing the effect of the calculated results, the authors have tested the results on local hospital software of Varanasi. Tested results of the factors are validated through the comparison and sensitivity analysis in this study. Tabulated results of the proposed study propose a symmetrical mechanism as the most conversant technique which can be employed by the experts and researchers for preparing security guidelines and strategies.

scholarly journals ASYMMETRICAL THREATS AND THE IMPACT OF HYBRID WAR ON GLOBAL SECURITY AND ROLE OF NATO IN ENSURING PEACE

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alika Guchua
Keyword(s):  
Cyber Attacks ◽  
First Century ◽  
Global Security ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Asymmetric Warfare ◽  
Asymmetric Conflicts ◽  
New Type ◽  
Hybrid War ◽  
The Impact

Abstract: The article deals with new type of asymmetric warfare and hybrid war. The potential threats in international politics and global security issues, Euro-Atlantic Alliance policy of fighting against terrorism. A serious challenge to modern security creates many problems around the world. The beginning of the twenty-first century was marked by proliferation of hybrid wars, held between flexible and sophisticated adversaries engaged in asymmetric conflicts using various forms. The hybrid war is caused by a hybrid threat, a blend of military and non-military assets and operations, terrorism, guerrilla tactics, criminality and cyber attacks. The use of hybrid type tactics can ensure the achievement of the main objectives of an international actor, with a minimum of effort, usually without using the force, and can deny to the target/victim the possibility to take any defensive actions. The complexity, diversity, the nature and dynamics of contemporary conflicts represent challenges that should be widely studied. The war, be it ancient or modern, hybrid or not, is always complex and cannot be described by a single adjective. The work focuses on the role of NATO in ensuring peace worldwide in the context of new asymmetric threats. The aim of the research topic: analyzing global challenges, which pose a serious threat to international security.

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