It takes two: Why mortality trend modeling is more than modeling one mortality trend

After the military took power in Brazil in 1964, the government adopted a wide range of policies designed to stimulate economic growth. A central aspect of the Brazilian model of development was the control of wages. From 1964 to 1975 this strategy caused the purchasing power of the minimum wage in the city of São Paulo to fall. The decline in the real wage index was associated with a rise in infant mortality during the period. When real wages rose after 1974, the death rate dropped off. The infant mortality trend cannot be explained by other factors that affect the actual or the reported death rate, such as changes in cityward migration, shifts in the distribution of income, and improvements in the quality of vital statistics. The findings of this study indicate a causal relationship between the infant mortality trend and changes in the purchasing power of the urban poor. Additional data on nutrition, changes in household behavior, and shifts in the cause structure of mortality support this conclusion.

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MALE MORTALITY TREND, 2002-2012: A TIME SERIES STUDY OF A CAPITAL OF THE BRAZILIAN PANTANAL

Reme Revista Mineira de Enfermagem ◽

10.5935/1415-2762.20170064 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 21 ◽

Author(s):

Jeane Cristina A. X. de O. Fraga ◽

Áurea Christina de Paula Corrêa ◽

Lenir Vaz Guimarães ◽

Luanna Arruda e Silva ◽

Isabele Torquato Mozer ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Mortality Trend ◽

Male Mortality ◽

Time Series Study ◽

Brazilian Pantanal ◽

Series Study

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Cancer of unknown primary ‐ incidence, mortality trend, and mortality‐to‐incidence ratio is associated with human development index in Central Serbia, 1999–2018: Evidence from the national cancer registry

European Journal of Cancer Care ◽

10.1111/ecc.13526 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Aleksandra Ignjatović ◽

Miodrag Stojanović ◽

Zoran Milošević ◽

Marija Anđelković Apostolović ◽

Tamara Filipović ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Human Development ◽

Cancer Registry ◽

Human Development Index ◽

Cancer Of Unknown Primary ◽

Unknown Primary ◽

Mortality Trend ◽

Development Index ◽

National Cancer Registry

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Optimal Values for Calculation of Premium in Life Insurance

International Journal of Energy Optimization and Engineering ◽

10.4018/ijeoe.2013070105 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 2 (3) ◽

pp. 68-85

Author(s):

Cvetko Andreeski

Keyword(s):

Developing Countries ◽

Life Insurance ◽

Data Sets ◽

Mortality Trend ◽

Republic Of Macedonia ◽

The Future ◽

Optimal Values ◽

Mortality Forecast ◽

The Republic

Life insurance is very challenging sector in developing countries. Life insurance makes contribute at the investments in every country, so the more developed life insurance, more investments one should expect. One of the main aspects in calculation of risk in life insurance is using updated tables of mortality and forecast of the future values of mortality. There are many functions and models for mortality forecast calculation. Lee-Carter and Azbel Model for mortality trend calculation are used in this paper. In order to evaluate the results, data sets with the mortality in the Republic of Macedonia are used.

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THE CHANGING TREND OF MORTALITY CAUSED BY GASTROINTESTINAL CANCERS IN IRAN DURING THE YEARS 2006-2010

Arquivos de Gastroenterologia ◽

10.1590/s0004-2803.201800000-60 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 55 (3) ◽

pp. 237-241 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Fatemeh SALEHI ◽

Ali AHMADI ◽

Seyede Soghra AHMADI SOODEJANI ◽

Milad SHAHINI SHAMS ABADI

Keyword(s):

Causes Of Death ◽

Age Groups ◽

Mortality Data ◽

Gastrointestinal Cancers ◽

Mortality Trend ◽

Pancreatic Cancers ◽

Incidence And Mortality ◽

High Incidence ◽

Increasing Trend ◽

Changing Trend

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Cancers are one of the most important causes of death in the world. According to their high incidence and mortality, gastrointestinal cancers have particular importance among other cancers. OBJECTIVE: Therefore, this study was conducted to investigate the mortality change trends of gastrointestinal cancers in Iran. METHODS: This study was performed by analyzing the reported mortality data in 29 provinces of Iran in 2006-2010. Mortality trend of gastrointestinal cancers was drawn for both sexes in the study years and disaggregated by age groups and their frequency distribution. The WinPepi software was used for analysis. RESULTS: In the years 2006-2010, the mortality rate of, gastric, colorectal, liver and pancreatic cancers, has significantly increased. Totally, gastrointestinal mortality is higher in men than women. Also, the results showed that by increasing age, death from these cancers also increased. CONCLUSION: The most important causes of death from gastrointestinal cancers were gastric, liver and colorectal cancers in Iran and because of their increasing trend in the country, performing preventive interventions for the cancers’ risk factors is necessary.

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Multidimensional penalized splines for incidence and mortality-trend analyses and validation of national cancer-incidence estimates

International Journal of Epidemiology ◽

10.1093/ije/dyaa078 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 49 (4) ◽

pp. 1294-1306 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Zoé Uhry ◽

Edouard Chatignoux ◽

Emmanuelle Dantony ◽

Marc Colonna ◽

Laurent Roche ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cancer Incidence ◽

Estimation Method ◽

Penalized Splines ◽

Registry Data ◽

Testis Cancer ◽

Mortality Trend ◽

Validation Process ◽

Trend Analyses ◽

Incidence Trends ◽

Incidence And Mortality

Abstract Background Cancer-incidence and mortality-trend analyses require appropriate statistical modelling. In countries without a nationwide cancer registry, an additional issue is estimating national incidence from local-registry data. The objectives of this study were to (i) promote the use of multidimensional penalized splines (MPS) for trend analyses; (ii) estimate the national cancer-incidence trends, using MPS, from only local-registry data; and (iii) propose a validation process of these estimates. Methods We used an MPS model of age and year for trend analyses in France over 1990–2015 with a projection up to 2018. Validation was performed for 22 cancer sites and relied essentially on comparison with reference estimates that used the incidence/health-care ratio over the period 2011–2015. Alternative estimates that used the incidence/mortality ratio were also used to validate the trends. Results In the validation assessment, the relative differences of the incidence estimates (2011–2015) with the reference estimates were <5% except for testis cancer in men and < 7% except for larynx cancer in women. Trends could be correctly derived since 1990 despite incomplete histories in some registries. The proposed method was applied to estimate the incidence and mortality trends of female lung cancer and prostate cancer in France. Conclusions The validation process confirmed the validity of the national French estimates; it may be applied in other countries to help in choosing the most appropriate national estimation method according to country-specific contexts. MPS form a powerful statistical tool for trend analyses; they allow trends to vary smoothly with age and are suitable for modelling simple as well as complex trends thanks to penalization. Detailed trend analyses of lung and prostate cancers illustrated the suitability of MPS and the epidemiological interest of such analyses.

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