scholarly journals Multidimensional penalized splines for incidence and mortality-trend analyses and validation of national cancer-incidence estimates

2020 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 1294-1306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zoé Uhry ◽  
Edouard Chatignoux ◽  
Emmanuelle Dantony ◽  
Marc Colonna ◽  
Laurent Roche ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Penalized Splines ◽  
Registry Data ◽  
Testis Cancer ◽  
Mortality Trend ◽  
Validation Process ◽  
Trend Analyses ◽  
Incidence Trends ◽  
Incidence And Mortality

Abstract Background Cancer-incidence and mortality-trend analyses require appropriate statistical modelling. In countries without a nationwide cancer registry, an additional issue is estimating national incidence from local-registry data. The objectives of this study were to (i) promote the use of multidimensional penalized splines (MPS) for trend analyses; (ii) estimate the national cancer-incidence trends, using MPS, from only local-registry data; and (iii) propose a validation process of these estimates. Methods We used an MPS model of age and year for trend analyses in France over 1990–2015 with a projection up to 2018. Validation was performed for 22 cancer sites and relied essentially on comparison with reference estimates that used the incidence/health-care ratio over the period 2011–2015. Alternative estimates that used the incidence/mortality ratio were also used to validate the trends. Results In the validation assessment, the relative differences of the incidence estimates (2011–2015) with the reference estimates were <5% except for testis cancer in men and < 7% except for larynx cancer in women. Trends could be correctly derived since 1990 despite incomplete histories in some registries. The proposed method was applied to estimate the incidence and mortality trends of female lung cancer and prostate cancer in France. Conclusions The validation process confirmed the validity of the national French estimates; it may be applied in other countries to help in choosing the most appropriate national estimation method according to country-specific contexts. MPS form a powerful statistical tool for trend analyses; they allow trends to vary smoothly with age and are suitable for modelling simple as well as complex trends thanks to penalization. Detailed trend analyses of lung and prostate cancers illustrated the suitability of MPS and the epidemiological interest of such analyses.

scholarly journals Trends in cancer incidence in Uruguay:2002 - 2015

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariela Garau ◽  
Carina Musetti ◽  
Rafael Alonso ◽  
Enrique Barrios
Keyword(s):  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Cancer Registry ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Medical Community ◽  
Screening Programs ◽  
National Cancer Registry ◽  
Incidence Trends ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Life Style Changes

Background: Uruguay is the southamerican country which has the highest cancer incidence and mortality rates. The National Cancer Registry collects data on cancer cases nationwide since 1989 and has reached high quality standards in the last decades. This is the first report on incidence trends. Methods: Data from the National Cancer Registry of all new cases of invasive cancer from twelve sites diagnosed in 2002-2015 was analyzed. Age-standardized rates were calculated. Trends of incidence rates were analyzed using joinpoint regression models. Results For both, men and women, incidence rates trends for all cancer sites, colo-rectal and bladder cancer remained stable. Esophageal and gastric cancers descend while Thyroid and kidney cancer incidence increased. In men lung cancer decreased; testicular cancer increased, and prostate cancer increased at the beginning of the period and decreased in the final years. In women; lung cancer increased, breast cancer remained stable and cervical cancer presented a significant decline from 2005 to 2010 and reached a plateau since then. Conclusion: Cancer incidence dynamics are complex and affected not only by Public Health policies such as tobacco control, vaccination and screening programs, but also by environmental and life style changes and the attitude of the medical community towards the application of diagnostic and therapeutic tools. The aim of this paper is to analyze cancer incidence time trends in the country and provide possible explanations to them.

scholarly journals A national observation study of cancer incidence and mortality risks in type 2 diabetes compared to the background population over time

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hulda Hrund Bjornsdottir ◽  
Araz Rawshani ◽  
Aidin Rawshani ◽  
Stefan Franzén ◽  
Ann-Marie Svensson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Type 2 Diabetes ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Colorectal Cancers ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Observation Study ◽  
Incidence Trends ◽  
Background Population ◽  
Incidence And Mortality

Abstract We examined changing patterns in cancer incidence and deaths in diabetes compared to the background population. A total of 457,473 patients with type 2 diabetes, included between 1998 and 2014, were matched on age, sex, and county to five controls from the population. Incidence, trends in incidence and post-cancer mortality for cancer were estimated with Cox regression and standardised incidence rates. Causes of death were estimated using logistic regression. Relative importance of risk factors was estimated using Heller’s relative importance model. Type 2 diabetes had a higher risk for all cancer, HR 1.10 (95% CI 1.09–1.12), with highest HRs for liver (3.31), pancreas (2.19) and uterine cancer (1.78). There were lesser increases in risk for breast (1.05) and colorectal cancers (1.20). Type 2 diabetes patients experienced a higher HR 1.23 (1.21–1.25) of overall post-cancer mortality and mortality from prostate, breast, and colorectal cancers. By the year 2030 cancer could become the most common cause of death in type 2 diabetes. Persons with type 2 diabetes are at greater risk of developing cancer and lower chance of surviving it. Notably, hazards for specific cancers (e.g. liver, pancreas) in type 2 patients cannot be explained by obesity alone.

scholarly journals Thyroid cancer incidence and mortality in Latin America

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fábia Cheyenne Gomes de Morais Fernandes ◽  
Dyego Leandro Bezerra de Souza ◽  
Maria Paula Curado ◽  
Isabelle Ribeiro Barbosa
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Thyroid Cancer ◽  
Costa Rica ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
World Health ◽  
International Agency ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Incidence Trends ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Thyroid Cancer Incidence

This study analyzed trends in thyroid cancer incidence and mortality in countries of Latin America. Ecological study of time series, with incidence data extracted from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), in the 1990-2012 period and mortality data obtained from 16 countries of the World Health Organization (WHO), in the 1995-2013 period. The trend of incidence rate was analyzed by the Joinpoint regression. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) and the 95% confidence interval (CI 95%) were calculated for incidence and mortality. The average rate of thyroid cancer incidence was higher in Quito (Ecuador) between the ages of 40 to 59 years old, 42.2 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants, as well as mortality 4.8 deaths per 100,000 women inhabitants above 60 years old. There was an increase in thyroid cancer incidence trends in women, for all age groups, in Cali, Costa Rica and Quito and men in Costa Rica; there was stability above the age of 60 years old in Cali, Goiania, Quito and Valdivia in men, as well as women in Goiania and Valdivia. There was a trend of increasing mortality for females in three countries: Ecuador (AAPC= 3,28 CI 95% 1,36;5,24), Guatemala (AAPC= 6,14 CI 95% 2,81;9,58) and Mexico (AAPC= 0,67 CI 95% 0,16;1,18). Thyroid cancer in Latin America showed a high incidence, with increased incidence in women. Stability in mortality was observed for most countries of Latin America.

scholarly journals Cancer incidence and mortality trends in France over 1990–2018 for solid tumors: the sex gap is narrowing

BMC Cancer ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Defossez ◽  
Z. Uhry ◽  
P. Delafosse ◽  
E. Dantony ◽  
T. d’Almeida ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Solid Tumors ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Penalized Splines ◽  
Absolute Difference ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Female Rate ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
Male To Female

Abstract Objective To analyze trends in cancer incidence and mortality (France, 1990–2018), with a focus on men-women disparities. Methods Incidence data stemmed from cancer registries (FRANCIM) and mortality data from national statistics (CépiDc). Incidence and mortality rates were modelled using bidimensional penalized splines of age and year (at diagnosis and at death, respectively). Trends in age-standardized rates were summarized by the average annual percent changes (AAPC) for all-cancers combined, 19 solid tumors, and 8 subsites. Sex gaps were indicated using male-to-female rate ratios (relative difference) and male-to-female rate differences (absolute difference) in 1990 and 2018, for incidence and mortality, respectively. Results For all-cancers, the sex gap narrowed over 1990–2018 in incidence (1.6 to 1.2) and mortality (2.3 to 1.7). The largest decreases of the male-to-female incidence rate ratio were for cancers of the lung (9.5 to 2.2), lip - oral cavity - pharynx (10.9 to 3.1), esophagus (12.6 to 4.5) and larynx (17.1 to 7.1). Mixed trends emerged in lung and oesophageal cancers, probably explained by differing risk factors for the two main histological subtypes. Sex incidence gaps narrowed due to increasing trends in men and women for skin melanoma (0.7 to 1, due to initially higher rates in women), cancers of the liver (7.4 to 4.4) and pancreas (2.0 to 1.4). Sex incidence gaps narrowed for colon-rectum (1.7 to 1.4), urinary bladder (6.9 to 6.1) and stomach (2.7 to 2.4) driven by decreasing trends among men. Other cancers showed similar increasing incidence trends in both sexes leading to stable sex gaps: thyroid gland (0.3 to 0.3), kidney (2.2 to 2.4) and central nervous system (1.4 to 1.5). Conclusion In France in 2018, while men still had higher risks of developing or dying from most cancers, the sex gap was narrowing. Efforts should focus on avoiding risk factors (e.g., smoking) and developing etiological studies to understand currently unexplained increasing trends.

scholarly journals Trends in the incidence and mortality of kidney cancer in Lithuania from 1993 to 2012

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 151-160
Author(s):  
Aušvydas Patašius ◽  
Agnė Ulytė ◽  
Albertas Ulys ◽  
Giedrė Smailytė
Keyword(s):  
Kidney Cancer ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Direct Method ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Treatment Modalities ◽  
Joinpoint Regression ◽  
Mortality Trend ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Reduction Of Mortality

Background. The aim of this paper is to analyse trends of kidney cancer incidence and mortality in Lithuania during the period of 1993 to 2012 using joinpoint regression models with special attention to changes in the distribution of stages. Materials and methods. The study was based on all cases of kidney cancer reported to the Lithuanian Cancer Registry between 1993 and 2012. Age group-specific rates and standardized rates were calculated for each sex, using the direct method (world standard population). The joinpoint regression model was used to provide the estimated annual percentage change and to detect points in time where significant changes in the trends occur. Results. During the study period the age-standardized incidence rates increased from 16.89/100,000 in 1993 to 27.77/100,000 in 2012 in males, and from 7.95/100,000 to 13.44/100,000 in females. During this period, annual percentage changes in the age-standardized rates were 2.33% and 1.81% for males and females, respectively. The joinpoint analysis by stage of disease showed the highest increase in stage I kidney cancer, with statistically significant trend change in 2002 for males and in 2001 for females. During the study period, age-standardized mortality rates decreased from 10.42/100,000 in 1993 to 8.96/100,000 in 2012 in males, and from 4.54/100,000 to 3.9/100,000 in females. Conclusions. The kidney cancer incidence rate in Lithuania rose during the period of 1993 to 2012. The detailed analysis by stage showed the most significant increase in organ-confined incidence of kidney cancer. A stable mortality trend for males and a decreasing mortality trend for females along with increased incidence of early stage kidney cancer indicate that both earlier detection and modern treatment modalities may contribute to the reduction of mortality.

Gender disparities in anal cancer incidence and mortality: A long-term US population-based analysis.

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e16059-e16059
Author(s):  
Firas Baidoun ◽  
Anas M Saad ◽  
Mohamed Gad ◽  
Mohammad Maysara Asfari ◽  
Muhammad Talal Sarmini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Anal Cancer ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Trend ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Gastrointestinal Malignancies ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
The Us ◽  
Males And Females

e16059 Background: Anal cancer is an uncommon malignancy accounting for less than 3% of gastrointestinal malignancies in the US. In this large database study, we aimed to re-evaluate the difference in the incidence and mortality trend in both genders. Methods: We used SEER 18 database to study anal cancer cases in the US during 2000-2016. Incidence and mortality rates of anal cancer were calculated by gender and were expressed by 1,000,000 person-years. Annual percent change (APC) was calculated using join point regression software. Results: We reviewed 25,418 patients with anal cancer, of which 61.4% were females. Incidence of anal cancers was 14.375 and 19.427 per 1,000,000 person-years, in males and females, respectively. Incidence rates of anal cancer significantly increased over the study period, but this increase was sharper in females (APC = 2.220%, 95%CI [1.924-2.517], P < .001) when compared to males (APC = 0.915%, 95%CI [0.303-1.531], P = .006). Mortality rates from anal cancer over the study period were 7.425 and 7.532 per 1,000,000 person-years, in males and females, respectively. Overall anal cancer mortality rates did not change between 2000-2009 but started to decrease starting from 2010 and this decrease became sharpest between 2014-2016; APC = -44.905%, 95%CI [-57.572- -28.457], P = .001). Mortality rates followed the same trend in both genders. Conclusions: Anal cancer incidence is increasing with significant increase in the incidence trend is noticed in females compared to males which is a change from the previous trend that was seen from 1973-2000. On the other hand, anal cancer mortality has started to decrease for the first time starting from 2010 with no difference in the mortality trend between males and females. This improvement in mortality rate can be explained by the improvement in early detection rate and possibly improvement in the treatment approach for these high-risk patients.

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