Understanding the impact of relapses in the overall course of MS; refinement of the 2 stage natural history model

Carlisle Museum's Natural History Record Bureau, Britain's first local environmental records centre, collected and collated records, mainly of birds but including also mammals and fishes, from amateur naturalists. It initially covered an area of 80 kilometres around Carlisle, and later from Cumberland, Westmorland and the detached portion of Lancashire north of Morecambe Bay: in effect the modern-day county of Cumbria. At the end of each year, those records which had been accepted were logged in a special “Record Book”, and a summary published. For the first eight years of its ten-year existence (1902–1912), these were printed in the local newspaper, The Carlisle Journal, but from 1908 they also appeared in The Zoologist. Alongside the Record Bureau, the Museum undertook a number of other activities, including a short-lived attempt to establish a bird-ringing project, an investigation into the impact of black-headed gulls ( Chroicocephalus ridibundus) on farming and fisheries interests (an early example of economic ornithology), the setting up of Kingmoor Nature Reserve and the protection of nesting peregrines ( Falco peregrinus), buzzards ( Buteo buteo) and ravens ( Corvus corax). The effectiveness of the Natural History Record Bureau and the reasons for its demise are briefly discussed.

Download Full-text

From Silent Spring to The Frog of War

10.1093/oso/9780198808978.003.0013 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

David K. Skelly

Keyword(s):

Natural History ◽

Laboratory Experiments ◽

Wild Populations ◽

Rachel Carson ◽

Chemical Agents ◽

Silent Spring ◽

The World ◽

History Information ◽

Wildlife Populations ◽

The Impact

This chapter presents two examples to demonstrate that natural history is the necessary basis of any reliable understanding of the world. More than a half century ago, Rachel Carson revolutionized the public’s view of pesticides. The foundation of her success was the careful use of natural history data, collated from across North America. The examples she assembled left little doubt that DDT and other pesticides were causing a widespread decline in birds. More recently, the case for the impact of atrazine on wildlife was based on laboratory experiments, without the advantage of natural history observations. For atrazine, natural history observations now suggest that other chemical agents are more likely to be responsible for feminization of wildlife populations. Developing expectations for scientists to collect natural history information can help to avoid over-extrapolating lab results to wild populations, a tendency often seen when those lab results conform to preconceptions about chemicals in the environment.

Download Full-text

Natural History of NAFLD

Journal of Clinical Medicine ◽

10.3390/jcm10061161 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (6) ◽

pp. 1161

Author(s):

Raluca Pais ◽

Thomas Maurel

Keyword(s):

Liver Disease ◽

Natural History ◽

Disease Progression ◽

Specific Treatment ◽

Alcoholic Fatty Liver ◽

Individual Level ◽

Close Relationship ◽

History Of ◽

The Individual ◽

The Impact

The epidemiology and the current burden of chronic liver disease are changing globally, with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) becoming the most frequent cause of liver disease in close relationship with the global epidemics of obesity, type 2 diabetes and metabolic syndrome. The clinical phenotypes of NAFLD are very heterogeneous in relationship with multiple pathways involved in the disease progression. In the absence of a specific treatment for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), it is important to understand the natural history of the disease, to identify and to optimize the control of factors that are involved in disease progression. In this paper we propose a critical analysis of factors that are involved in the progression of the liver damage and the occurrence of extra-hepatic complications (cardiovascular diseases, extra hepatic cancer) in patients with NAFLD. We also briefly discuss the impact of the heterogeneity of the clinical phenotype of NAFLD on the clinical practice globally and at the individual level.

Download Full-text

S19 The impact of clotting abnormalities on the natural history of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: an extended follow up of a population based cohort

Thorax ◽

10.1136/thoraxjnl-2016-209333.25 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 71 (Suppl 3) ◽

pp. A13.1-A13

Author(s):

V Navaratnam ◽

AW Fogarty ◽

T McKeever ◽

N Thompson ◽

G Jenkins ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Natural History ◽

Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis ◽

Pulmonary Fibrosis ◽

Population Based ◽

History Of ◽

The Impact

Download Full-text

Modelling the HIV-Associated TB Epidemic and the Impact of Interventions Aimed at Epidemic Control

HIV and Tuberculosis ◽

10.1007/978-3-030-29108-2_3 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 25-55

Author(s):

P. J. Dodd ◽

C. Pretorius ◽

B. G. Williams

Keyword(s):

Natural History ◽

Mathematical Models ◽

Population Level ◽

Explicit Representation ◽

Epidemic Control ◽

Future Directions ◽

Individual Level ◽

Tuberculosis Epidemiology ◽

History Of ◽

The Impact

Abstract In this chapter, we focus on mathematical models of tuberculosis epidemiology (TB) that include interactions with HIV and an explicit representation of transmission. We review the natural history of TB and illustrate how its features are simplified and incorporated in mathematical models. We then review the ways HIV influences the natural history of TB, the interventions that have been considered in models, and the way these individual-level effects are represented in models. We then go on to consider population-level effects, reviewing the TB/HIV modelling literature. We first review studies whose focus was on purely epidemiological modelling, and then studies whose focus was on modelling the impact of interventions. We conclude with a summary of the uses and achievements of TB/HIV modelling and some suggested future directions.

Download Full-text

Considering the impact of pregnancy on the natural history of hidradenitis suppurativa

British Journal of Dermatology ◽

10.1111/bjd.15735 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 178 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

P. Perng ◽

J.G. Zampella ◽

G.A. Okoye

Keyword(s):

Natural History ◽

Hidradenitis Suppurativa ◽

History Of ◽

The Impact

Download Full-text

Epidemiology

10.1093/med/9780199668847.003.0008 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Nigel Arden ◽

Michael C. Nevitt

Keyword(s):

Magnetic Resonance Imaging ◽

Risk Factors ◽

Magnetic Resonance ◽

Natural History ◽

Health Service ◽

Resonance Imaging ◽

Combined Structure ◽

The Impact

Despite the impact of osteoarthritis (OA) on patients and the health service, OA remains an elusive condition to define and treat. Traditionally, OA has been diagnosed using radiographs and more recently magnetic resonance imaging; however, the last 20 years of research have changed our thinking about the disease and its treatment. We know today that OA takes up to 10–15 years to develop, has a range of risk factors, and that there is a considerable discordance between symptoms and structural signs, such that new classifications and definitions are moving away from structural criteria to combined structure and pain definitions. This chapter reviews the definition and classification of OA and its prevalence, incidence, and natural history.

Download Full-text

Does infection with Chlamydia trachomatis induce long-lasting partial immunity? Insights from mathematical modelling

Sexually Transmitted Infections ◽

10.1136/sextrans-2018-053543 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 95 (2) ◽

pp. 115-121 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Ryosuke Omori ◽

Hiam Chemaitelly ◽

Christian L Althaus ◽

Laith J Abu-Raddad

Keyword(s):

Chlamydia Trachomatis ◽

Natural History ◽

Sexual Risk ◽

Vaccine Development ◽

Sensitivity Analyses ◽

Infectious Period ◽

Model Structure ◽

Uncertainty Interval ◽

The Impact ◽

Partial Immunity

ObjectivesTo explore whether existence of long-lasting partial immunity against reinfection with Chlamydia trachomatis is necessary to explain C. trachomatis prevalence patterns by age and sexual risk, and to provide a plausible estimate for the effect size, defined here as a reduction in susceptibility to reinfection.MethodsA population-based mathematical model was constructed to describe C. trachomatis natural history and transmission dynamics by age and sexual risk. The model was parameterised using natural history, and epidemiological and sexual behaviour data, and applied for UK and US data. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of predictions to variations in model structure and to examine the impact of alternative assumptions for the mechanism underlying partial immunity.ResultsPartial immunity against reinfection was found necessary to explain observed C. trachomatis prevalence patterns by age and sexual risk. The reduction in susceptibility to reinfection was estimated at 93% using UK data (95% uncertainty interval (UI)=88%–97%) and at 67% using US data (95% UI=24%–88%). The model-structure sensitivity analyses affirmed model predictions. The immunity-mechanism sensitivity analyses suggested a mechanism of susceptibility reduction against reinfection or a mechanism of infectious-period duration reduction upon reinfection.ConclusionsA strong long-lasting partial immunity against C. trachomatis reinfection should be present to explain observed prevalence patterns. The mechanism of immunity could be either a reduction in susceptibility to reinfection or a reduction in duration of infection on reinfection. C. trachomatis infection appears to naturally elicit a strong long-lasting immune response, supporting the concept of vaccine development.

Download Full-text

P286 Rate of colectomy in ulcerative colitis: Results from a Spanish cohort with 15 years of follow-up

Journal of Crohn s and Colitis ◽

10.1093/ecco-jcc/jjz203.415 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 14 (Supplement_1) ◽

pp. S295-S296

Author(s):

C Rodriguez Gutiérrez ◽

A Elosua Gonzalez ◽

C Prieto Martínez ◽

S Rubio Iturria ◽

M A Vicuña ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ulcerative Colitis ◽

Natural History ◽

Therapeutic Strategies ◽

Definitive Diagnosis ◽

Biological Drugs ◽

History Of ◽

Incident Cohort ◽

The Impact ◽

Spanish Cohort

Abstract Background Knowing the natural history of ulcerative colitis (UC) is essential to understand the evolution of the disease, assess the impact of different therapeutic strategies, identify poor prognostic factors and provide patients with understandable information who help them in decision making. It has been suggested that biological drugs could modify natural history of UC and therefore decrease the rates of colectomy. In Spain, infliximab is approved for CU since 2005. Methods We performed a retrospective study that includes all patients with a definitive diagnosis (DD) of UC or Unclassifiable Colitis (UC) in the Navarra Incident Cohort (which includes all patients diagnosed between 2001 and 2003 in Navarra, Spain). Our objectives were to analyse the Colectomy Incidence Rate (CIR) from diagnosis to the end of follow-up (12-31-2017) and identify predictive factors of colectomy. Results We included 174 patients with DD of UC (42.5% E2 - 26.8% E3) and 5 of IC: 44.1 women, median age 39.2 years (7–88), median follow-up of 15.7 years. At the end of the follow-up, 8 patients underwent colectomy (CIR 3 surgeries per 100000patients-year). Timing of colectomy was: 3 at the initial diagnosis (<1 month), 2 in the first 2 years, 2 at 5 years and 1 at 12 years from diagnosis. All had previously received steroids, 5 immunomodulators and 2 biological agents. In 7 (87%) the surgery was urgent and the indication, megacolon in 3 (37.5%), severe outbreak in 3 (37.5%) and failure to medical treatment in 2 (25%). In 5 cases (62.5%), an ileoanal reservoir was made and in 3 definitive ileostomy. Conclusion In our cohort, global colectomy rates are lower than those reported in other series and occur mostly in the first 5 years of evolution.

Download Full-text