Genetic prediction of complex traits with polygenic scores: a statistical review

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Ma ◽  
Xiang Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Complex Traits ◽  
Statistical Review ◽  
Genetic Prediction ◽  
Polygenic Scores

scholarly journals The impact of late-career job loss and genetic risk on body mass index: Evidence from variance polygenic scores

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauren L. Schmitz ◽  
Julia Goodwin ◽  
Jiacheng Miao ◽  
Qiongshi Lu ◽  
Dalton Conley
Keyword(s):  
Body Mass Index ◽  
Body Mass ◽  
Complex Traits ◽  
Job Loss ◽  
Past Research ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Polygenic Scores ◽  
Show Evidence ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

AbstractUnemployment shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic have reignited concerns over the long-term effects of job loss on population health. Past research has highlighted the corrosive effects of unemployment on health and health behaviors. This study examines whether the effects of job loss on changes in body mass index (BMI) are moderated by genetic predisposition using data from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study (HRS). To improve detection of gene-by-environment (G × E) interplay, we interacted layoffs from business closures—a plausibly exogenous environmental exposure—with whole-genome polygenic scores (PGSs) that capture genetic contributions to both the population mean (mPGS) and variance (vPGS) of BMI. Results show evidence of genetic moderation using a vPGS (as opposed to an mPGS) and indicate genome-wide summary measures of phenotypic plasticity may further our understanding of how environmental stimuli modify the distribution of complex traits in a population.

scholarly journals Comparing within- and between-family polygenic score prediction

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saskia Selzam ◽  
Stuart J. Ritchie ◽  
Jean-Baptiste Pingault ◽  
Chandra A. Reynolds ◽  
Paul F. O’Reilly ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Assortative Mating ◽  
Complex Traits ◽  
Population Stratification ◽  
Educational Achievement ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Life Outcomes ◽  
Polygenic Score ◽  
Family Effects ◽  
Polygenic Scores ◽  
Cognitive Traits

AbstractPolygenic scores are a popular tool for prediction of complex traits. However, prediction estimates in samples of unrelated participants can include effects of population stratification, assortative mating and environmentally mediated parental genetic effects, a form of genotype-environment correlation (rGE). Comparing genome-wide polygenic score (GPS) predictions in unrelated individuals with predictions between siblings in a within-family design is a powerful approach to identify these different sources of prediction. Here, we compared within- to between-family GPS predictions of eight life outcomes (anthropometric, cognitive, personality and health) for eight corresponding GPSs. The outcomes were assessed in up to 2,366 dizygotic (DZ) twin pairs from the Twins Early Development Study from age 12 to age 21. To account for family clustering, we used mixed-effects modelling, simultaneously estimating within- and between-family effects for target- and cross-trait GPS prediction of the outcomes. There were three main findings: (1) DZ twin GPS differences predicted DZ differences in height, BMI, intelligence, educational achievement and ADHD symptoms; (2) target and cross-trait analyses indicated that GPS prediction estimates for cognitive traits (intelligence and educational achievement) were on average 60% greater between families than within families, but this was not the case for non-cognitive traits; and (3) this within- and between-family difference for cognitive traits disappeared after controlling for family socio-economic status (SES), suggesting that SES is a source of between-family prediction through rGE mechanisms. These results provide novel insights into the patterns by which rGE contributes to GPS prediction, while ruling out confounding due to population stratification and assortative mating.

scholarly journals Genetic prediction of complex traits: integrating infinitesimal and marked genetic effects

Genetica ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (4-6) ◽  
pp. 239-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clément Carré ◽  
Fabrice Gamboa ◽  
David Cros ◽  
John Michael Hickey ◽  
Gregor Gorjanc ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Complex Traits ◽  
Genetic Effects ◽  
Genetic Prediction

scholarly journals Demographic history impacts stratification in polygenic scores

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arslan A. Zaidi ◽  
Iain Mathieson
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Effects ◽  
Principal Components ◽  
Complex Traits ◽  
Population Stratification ◽  
Association Studies ◽  
Demographic History ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Genome Wide Association Studies ◽  
Common Variants ◽  
Polygenic Scores

AbstractLarge genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified many loci exhibiting small but statistically significant associations with complex traits and disease risk. However, control of population stratification continues to be a limiting factor, particularly when calculating polygenic scores where subtle biases can cumulatively lead to large errors. We simulated GWAS under realistic models of demographic history to study the effect of residual stratification in large GWAS. We show that when population structure is recent, it cannot be fully corrected using principal components based on common variants—the standard approach—because common variants are uninformative about recent demographic history. Consequently, polygenic scores calculated from such GWAS results are biased in that they recapitulate non-genetic environmental structure. Principal components calculated from rare variants or identity-by-descent segments largely correct for this structure if environmental effects are smooth. However, even these corrections are not effective for local or batch effects. While sibling-based association tests are immune to stratification, the hybrid approach of ascertaining variants in a standard GWAS and then re-estimating effect sizes in siblings reduces but does not eliminate bias. Finally, we show that rare variant burden tests are relatively robust to stratification. Our results demonstrate that the effect of population stratification on GWAS and polygenic scores depends not only on the frequencies of tested variants and the distribution of environmental effects but also on the demographic history of the population.

scholarly journals Genomic prediction of cognitive traits in childhood and adolescence

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.G. Allegrini ◽  
S. Selzam ◽  
K. Rimfeld ◽  
S. von Stumm ◽  
J.B. Pingault ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Educational Attainment ◽  
Complex Traits ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Educational Achievement ◽  
Association Studies ◽  
Occupational Status ◽  
Childhood And Adolescence ◽  
Genome Wide Association Studies ◽  
Polygenic Scores

AbstractRecent advances in genomics are producing powerful DNA predictors of complex traits, especially cognitive abilities. Here, we leveraged summary statistics from the most recent genome-wide association studies of intelligence and educational attainment to build prediction models of general cognitive ability and educational achievement. To this end, we compared the performances of multi-trait genomic and polygenic scoring methods. In a representative UK sample of 7,026 children at age 12 and 16, we show that we can now predict up to 11 percent of the variance in intelligence and 16 percent in educational achievement. We also show that predictive power increases from age 12 to age 16 and that genomic predictions do not differ for girls and boys. Multivariate genomic methods were effective in boosting predictive power and, even though prediction accuracy varied across polygenic scores approaches, results were similar using different multivariate and polygenic score methods. Polygenic scores for educational attainment and intelligence are the most powerful predictors in the behavioural sciences and exceed predictions that can be made from parental phenotypes such as educational attainment and occupational status.

scholarly journals Polygenic Prediction of Complex Traits with Iterative Screen Regression Models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meng Luo ◽  
Shiliang Gu
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Variants ◽  
Complex Traits ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Association Studies ◽  
Prediction Methods ◽  
Genome Wide Association Studies ◽  
Genotype Data ◽  
Genetic Prediction ◽  
Genome Wide ◽  
Genome Prediction

AbstractAlthough genome-wide association studies have successfully identified thousands of markers associated with various complex traits and diseases, our ability to predict such phenotypes remains limited. A perhaps ignored explanation lies in the limitations of the genetic models and statistical techniques commonly used in association studies. However, using genotype data for individuals to perform accurate genetic prediction of complex traits can promote genomic selection in animal and plant breeding and can lead to the development of personalized medicine in humans. Because most complex traits have a polygenic architecture, accurate genetic prediction often requires modeling genetic variants together via polygenic methods. Here, we also utilize our proposed polygenic methods, which refer to as the iterative screen regression model (ISR) for genome prediction. We compared ISR with several commonly used prediction methods with simulations. We further applied ISR to predicting 15 traits, including the five species of cattle, rice, wheat, maize, and mice. The results of the study indicate that the ISR method performs well than several commonly used polygenic methods and stability.

scholarly journals The future of genomics for developmentalists

2013 ◽  
Vol 25 (4pt2) ◽  
pp. 1263-1278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Plomin ◽  
Michael A. Simpson
Keyword(s):  
Complex Traits ◽  
Rare Variants ◽  
Behavioral Development ◽  
Genomic Research ◽  
Whole Genome Sequence ◽  
Whole Genome ◽  
Risk And Resilience ◽  
Polygenic Scores ◽  
Dna Variants ◽  
The Future

AbstractThe momentum of genomic science will carry it far into the future and into the heart of research on typical and atypical behavioral development. The purpose of this paper is to focus on a few implications and applications of these advances for understanding behavioral development. Quantitative genetics is genomic and will chart the course for molecular genomic research now that these two worlds of genetics are merging in the search for many genes of small effect. Although current attempts to identify specific genes have had limited success, known as the missing heritability problem, whole-genome sequencing will improve this situation by identifying all DNA sequence variations, including rare variants. Because the heritability of complex traits is caused by many DNA variants of small effect in the population, polygenic scores that are composites of hundreds or thousands of DNA variants will be used by developmentalists to predict children's genetic risk and resilience. The most far-reaching advance will be the widespread availability of whole-genome sequence for children, which means that developmentalists would no longer need to obtain DNA or to genotype children in order to use genomic information in research or in the clinic.

Stressful Life Events and Self-Control: Testing Gene x Environment Interaction with a Polygenic Approach

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yayouk Willems ◽  
Jouke-Jan Hottenga ◽  
Lannie Ligthart ◽  
Gonneke WIllemsen ◽  
Dorret Boomsma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Complex Traits ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Self Control ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Life Stressors ◽  
Control Problems ◽  
Environment Interaction ◽  
Polygenic Risk ◽  
Polygenic Scores ◽  
Low Self Control

Background: Ill decisions and reckless behaviors due to low self-control are concurrently and longitudinally costly, and revealing possible factors contributing to individual differences in self-control is necessary. It is hypothesized that genetically sensitivity interacts with life stressors in the prediction of the development of low self-control (gene environment interaction), yet attempts to test this hypothesis mostly concern candidate gene studies yielding inconclusive results. The goal of this research was to bring findings from large scale gene identification studies into the developmental psychology framework, taking the polygenic nature of complex traits into account. Methods: Using data of a large population-based twin sample, we tested whether polygenic risk scores for self-control problems – based on the most recent ADHD GWAS – predict self-control problems in adults, and whether this polygenic risk scores interact with the presence of environmental stressors. Results: While polygenic scores and life stressors significantly predicted low self-control, we did not find a significant interaction effect. Conclusions: Empirically, finding statistical evidence for this hypothesis remains a challenge, and more research is needed to investigate how to better detect G x E.

scholarly journals Effect sizes of causal variants for gene expression and complex traits differ between populations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roshni A. Patel ◽  
Shaila A. Musharoff ◽  
Jeffrey P. Spence ◽  
Harold Pimentel ◽  
Catherine Tcheandjieu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gene Expression ◽  
Complex Traits ◽  
Association Studies ◽  
Causal Variant ◽  
Effect Sizes ◽  
European Ancestry ◽  
Genome Wide Association Studies ◽  
Polygenic Scores ◽  
Causal Variants ◽  
Variant Effect

Despite the growing number of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for complex traits, it remains unclear whether effect sizes of causal genetic variants differ between populations. In principle, effect sizes of causal variants could differ between populations due to gene-by-gene or gene-by-environment interactions. However, comparing causal variant effect sizes is challenging: it is difficult to know which variants are causal, and comparisons of variant effect sizes are confounded by differences in linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure between ancestries. Here, we develop a method to assess causal variant effect size differences that overcomes these limitations. Specifically, we leverage the fact that segments of European ancestry shared between European-American and admixed African-American individuals have similar LD structure, allowing for unbiased comparisons of variant effect sizes in European ancestry segments. We apply our method to two types of traits: gene expression and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). We find that causal variant effect sizes for gene expression are significantly different between European-Americans and African-Americans; for LDL-C, we observe a similar point estimate although this is not significant, likely due to lower statistical power. Cross-population differences in variant effect sizes highlight the role of genetic interactions in trait architecture and will contribute to the poor portability of polygenic scores across populations, reinforcing the importance of conducting GWAS on individuals of diverse ancestries and environments.

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