scholarly journals Volcanic Ash as a precursor for SARS-CoV-2 infection among susceptible populations in Ecuador: A satellite Imaging and excess mortality-based analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-37
Author(s):  
Theofilos Toulkeridis ◽  
Rachid Seqqat ◽  
Marbel Torres Arias ◽  
Rodolfo Salazar-Martinez ◽  
Esteban Ortiz-Prado ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Heart Diseases ◽  
Health Determinants ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Previous Exposure ◽  
Satellite Imaging ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Volcanic Ashes ◽  
Susceptible Populations

Abstract The global COVID-19 pandemic has altered entire nations and their health systems. The greatest impact of the pandemic has been seen among vulnerable populations such as those with comorbidities like heart diseases, kidney failure, obesity or those with worst health determinants like unemployment and poverty. In the current study, we are proposing previous exposure to fine-grained volcanic ashes as a risk factor for developing COVID-19. Based on several previous studies it has been known since the mid-eight-tees of the last century that volcanic ash is most likely an accelerating factor to suffer from different types of cancer including lung or thyroid cancer. Our study postulates, that people who are most likely to be infected during a SARS-CoV-2 widespread wave will be those with comorbidities that are related to previous exposure to volcanic ashes. We have explored 8,703 satellite images from the last 21 years of available data from the NOAA database and correlated them with the data from the national institute of health statistics in Ecuador. Additionally, we provide more realistic numbers of fatalities due to the virus based on excess mortality data of 2020-2021, when compared to previous years. This study would be a very first of its kind combining social and spatial distribution of COVID-19 infections and volcanic ash distribution. The results and implications of our study will also help countries to identify such aforementioned vulnerable parts of the society, if the given geodynamic and volcanic settings are similar.

scholarly journals How COVID-19 affects voting for incumbents: Evidence from local elections in France

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Morisi ◽  
Héloïse Cloléry ◽  
Guillaume Kon Kam King ◽  
Max Schaub
Keyword(s):  
Propensity Score ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Indirect Evidence ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Dependent Variables ◽  
Left And Right ◽  
Fear And Anxiety

How do voters react to an ongoing natural threat? We address this question by investigating voters’ reactions to the early spread of COVID-19 in the 2020 French municipal elections. Using a novel, fine-grained measure of the circulation of the virus based on excess-mortality data, we find that support for incumbents increased in the areas that were particularly hit by the virus. Incumbents from both left and right gained votes in areas more strongly affected by COVID-19. The results are robust to a placebo test and hold across different methods, including regressions with lagged dependent variables, a differences-in-differences approach and propensity score matching. We also provide indirect evidence for two mechanisms that can explain our findings: an emotional channel related to feelings of fear and anxiety, and a prospective-voting channel, related to the ability of incumbents to act more swiftly against the diffusion of the virus than challengers.

scholarly journals Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Augusto Cerqua ◽  
Roberta Di Stefano ◽  
Marco Letta ◽  
Sara Miccoli
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Supervised Machine Learning ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Official Method ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Mortality Estimates

AbstractEstimates of the real death toll of the COVID-19 pandemic have proven to be problematic in many countries, Italy being no exception. Mortality estimates at the local level are even more uncertain as they require stringent conditions, such as granularity and accuracy of the data at hand, which are rarely met. The “official” approach adopted by public institutions to estimate the “excess mortality” during the pandemic draws on a comparison between observed all-cause mortality data for 2020 and averages of mortality figures in the past years for the same period. In this paper, we apply the recently developed machine learning control method to build a more realistic counterfactual scenario of mortality in the absence of COVID-19. We demonstrate that supervised machine learning techniques outperform the official method by substantially improving the prediction accuracy of the local mortality in “ordinary” years, especially in small- and medium-sized municipalities. We then apply the best-performing algorithms to derive estimates of local excess mortality for the period between February and September 2020. Such estimates allow us to provide insights about the demographic evolution of the first wave of the pandemic throughout the country. To help improve diagnostic and monitoring efforts, our dataset is freely available to the research community.

scholarly journals The spatial epidemiology of alcohol-related mortality among the Czech adult population

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
L Kazmer ◽  
I Kulhanova ◽  
M Lustigova
Keyword(s):  
Local Community ◽  
Spatial Epidemiology ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Health Determinants ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Inequalities In Health ◽  
Related Mortality

Abstract Background In Czechia, alcohol-induced deaths account for a significant portion of preventable mortality. As inequalities in health are both socially and spatially determined, the paper aims at the detailed examination of socio-geographic inequalities of this phenomenon. Methods The 2011-2015 annual data on both ICD-10 cause-specific deaths (K70; F10; X45/64; Y15) and mid-year population were obtained from the official Czech registries - the data were cross-classified by gender, 5-year age-groups, and permanent residence (N = 6,302 small area spatial units). The selected socio-demographic indicators (education, unemployment, religious population) from the Czech 2011 Census were spatially merged to the mortality dataset. From the data on education and unemployment, composite deprivation index (DI) was derived. In the adult population aged 25+, the age-standardised mortality ratios (SMR) were computed for each of the spatial units, separately by genders. The SMRs were spatially modelled by the Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) autoregressive approach, applying a fully bayesian framework integrated within the INLA R-package. The study applied cross-sectional design and employed ecological regression conducted on observational data. Results Compared to the Czech average, the highest SMRs were located in the historical regions of Moravia [SMR=1.15; 95%CI: 1.11-1.19] and Silesia [SMR=1.59; 95%CI: 1.52-1.66]. The SMRs were significantly correlated with DI among males [Rel.Risk=1.15; 95%CI: 1.11-1.19], and with religiousness rate among females [Rel.Risk=0.83; 95%CI: 0.77-0.90]. Conclusions Significant socio-geographic inequalities were detected, particularly with respect to the Czech historical regions. Among males, higher mortality was associated with a structural deprivation. Among females, protective effect of religiousness rate was found to be significant. The results highlight an importance of both socially and spatially integrated efforts for public health promotion. Key messages The inequalities in health are both socially and spatially contextualised. The paper presents robust empirical evidence in favour of the proposition, as examined on alcohol-related mortality data. The health determinants may be gender sensitive. Males might be more responsive to a structural disadvantage. Among females, cultural factors related to a local community might be more relevant.

Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Philadelphia

2021 ◽  
pp. e1-e6
Author(s):  
Megan Todd ◽  
Meagan Pharis ◽  
Sam P. Gulino ◽  
Jessica M. Robbins ◽  
Cheryl Bettigole
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Poisson Model ◽  
People Of Color ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Registration System ◽  
Vital Registration System ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Race Ethnicity ◽  
Excess Deaths

Objectives. To estimate excess all-cause mortality in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, during the COVID-19 pandemic and understand the distribution of excess mortality in the population. Methods. With a Poisson model trained on recent historical data from the Pennsylvania vital registration system, we estimated expected weekly mortality in 2020. We compared these estimates with observed mortality to estimate excess mortality. We further examined the distribution of excess mortality by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Results. There were an estimated 3550 excess deaths between March 22, 2020, and January 2, 2021, a 32% increase above expectations. Only 77% of excess deaths (n=2725) were attributed to COVID-19 on the death certificate. Excess mortality was disproportionately high among older adults and people of color. Sex differences varied by race/ethnicity. Conclusions. Excess deaths during the pandemic were not fully explained by COVID-19 mortality; official counts significantly undercount the true death toll. Far from being a great equalizer, the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated preexisting disparities in mortality by race/ethnicity. Public Health Implications. Mortality data must be disaggregated by age, sex, and race/ethnicity to accurately understand disparities among groups. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print June 10, 2021: e1–e6. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306285 )

Geochemical and Petrological Characterization of Ash Samples from Cascade Range Volcanoes

1971 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 261-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith Randle ◽  
Gordon G. Goles ◽  
Laurence R. Kittleman
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Volcanic Ash ◽  
Cascade Range ◽  
Crystalline Material ◽  
Refractive Indices ◽  
Crystalline Materials ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Volcanic Ashes ◽  
Different Sources

Twenty-nine samples of volcanic ash from the Pacific Northwest were analyzed by instrumental neutron activation techniques, with the aim of distinguishing among ashes from different sources. Preliminary results of petrographic studies of 42 ash or pumice samples are also reported. Geochemical characteristics of Mazama ash are defined, and problems induced by winnowing of crystalline material during transport and by weathering are discussed. Contents of La, Th, and Co, and La/Yb ratios are shown to be good discriminants. Data on refractive indices and on proportions of crystalline materials also aid in distinguishing among the various volcanic ashes studied. Ash and pumice found in archaeological contexts at Fort Rock Cave, Paisley Cave, Wildcat Canyon, and Hobo Cave are all from Mount Mazama, presumably from the culminating cruption of 7000 years ago.

scholarly journals Excess mortality in Guadeloupe and Martinique, islands of the French West Indies, during the chikungunya epidemic of 2014

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (16) ◽  
pp. 2059-2065 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. R. R. Freitas ◽  
P. M. Alarcón-Elbal ◽  
M. R. Donalisio
Keyword(s):  
Strong Correlation ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Excess Deaths

AbstractIn some chikungunya epidemics, deaths are not completely captured by traditional surveillance systems, which record case and death reports. We evaluated excess deaths associated with the 2014 chikungunya virus (CHIKV) epidemic in Guadeloupe and Martinique, Antilles. Population (784 097 inhabitants) and mortality data, estimated by sex and age, were accessed from the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques in France. Epidemiological data, cases, hospitalisations and deaths on CHIKV were obtained from the official epidemiological reports of the Cellule de Institut de Veille Sanitaire in France. Excess deaths were calculated as the difference between the expected and observed deaths for all age groups for each month in 2014 and 2015, considering the upper limit of 99% confidence interval. The Pearson correlation coefficient showed a strong correlation between monthly excess deaths and reported cases of chikungunya (R= 0.81,p< 0.005) and with a 1-month lag (R= 0.87,p< 0.001); and a strong correlation was also observed between monthly rates of hospitalisation for CHIKV and excess deaths with a delay of 1 month (R= 0.87,p< 0.0005). The peak of the epidemic occurred in the month with the highest mortality, returning to normal soon after the end of the CHIKV epidemic. There were excess deaths in almost all age groups, and excess mortality rate was higher among the elderly but was similar between male and female individuals. The overall mortality estimated in the current study (639 deaths) was about four times greater than that obtained through death declarations (160 deaths). Although the aetiological diagnosis of all deaths associated with CHIKV infection is not always possible, already well-known statistical tools can contribute to the evaluation of the impact of CHIKV on mortality and morbidity in the different age groups.

scholarly journals Validity of coronary heart diseases and heart failure based on hospital discharge and mortality data in the Netherlands using the cardiovascular registry Maastricht cohort study

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 237-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Audrey H. H. Merry ◽  
Jolanda M. A. Boer ◽  
Leo J. Schouten ◽  
Edith J. M. Feskens ◽  
W. M. Monique Verschuren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Hospital Discharge ◽  
Heart Diseases ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Coronary Heart Diseases

scholarly journals An Exploration of Temperature Metrics for Further Developing the Heat-Health Weather Warning System in Hong Kong

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cho Kwong Charlie Lam ◽  
Margaret Loughnan ◽  
Nigel Tapper
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Critical Thresholds ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
Heat And Cold Stress

Background. The current weather warning system aims to reduce mortality from heat and cold stress but still has room to be improved in terms of incorporating other temperature metrics. The aim of this study is to determine how extreme temperature affects mortality in Hong Kong. Methods. An ecological study was used; daily weather data were subdivided into seven temperature metrics. Daily detrended mortality data were stratified by disease groups and analysed using seven different metrics for temperature. The temperature metrics were then compared. Results. A diurnal temperature range (DTR) of ≥8°C leading to an increase in median mortality of up to 16% and a mean temperature change between neighbouring days of ≥4°C leading to an increase in median mortality of up to 6% were the critical thresholds for excess mortality in Hong Kong. Conclusions. This study reveals that mean net effective temperature, DTR, and temperature change between neighbouring days are effective to predict excess mortality in Hong Kong.

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