scholarly journals Inadvertent escalation in the age of intelligence machines: A new model for nuclear risk in the digital age

Author(s):  
James Johnson

Abstract Will AI-enabled capabilities increase inadvertent escalation risk? This article revisits Cold War-era thinking about inadvertent escalation to consider how Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology (especially AI augmentation of advanced conventional weapons) through various mechanisms and pathways could affect inadvertent escalation risk between nuclear-armed adversaries during a conventional crisis or conflict. How might AI be incorporated into nuclear and conventional operations in ways that affect escalation risk? It unpacks the psychological and cognitive features of escalation theorising (the security dilemma, the ‘fog of war’, and military doctrine and strategy) to examine whether and how the characteristics of AI technology, against the backdrop of a broader political-societal dynamic of the digital information ecosystem, might increase inadvertent escalation risk. Are existing notions of inadvertent escalation still relevant in the digital age? The article speaks to the broader scholarship in International Relations – notably ‘bargaining theories of war’ – that argues that the impact of technology on the cause of war occurs through its political effects, rather than tactical or operational battlefield alterations. In this way, it addresses a gap in the literature about the strategic and theoretical implications of the AI-nuclear dilemma.

1998 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 81-106
Author(s):  
M. A. Muqtedar Khan

This paper seeks to understand the impact of current global politicaland socioeconomic conditions on the construction of identity. I advancean argument based on a two-step logic. First, I challenge the characterizationof current socioeconomic conditions as one of globalization bymarshaling arguments and evidence that strongly suggest that along withglobalization, there are simultaneous processes of localization proliferatingin the world today. I contend that current conditions are indicative ofthings far exceeding the scope of globalization and that they can bedescribed more accurately as ccglocalization.~H’2a ving established thisclaim, I show how the processes of glocalization affect the constructionof Muslim identity.Why do I explore the relationship between glocalization and identityconstruction? Because it is significant. Those conversant with current theoreticaldebates within the discipline of international relations’ are awarethat identity has emerged as a significant explanatory construct in internationalrelations theory in the post-Cold War era.4 In this article, I discussthe emergence of identity as an important concept in world politics.The contemporary field of international relations is defined by threephilosophically distinct research programs? rationalists: constructivists,’and interpretivists.’ The moot issue is essentially a search for the mostimportant variable that can help explain or understand the behavior ofinternational actors and subsequently explain the nature of world politicsin order to minimize war and maximize peace.Rationalists contend that actors are basically rational actors who seekthe maximization of their interests, interests being understood primarilyin material terms and often calculated by utility functions maximizinggiven preferences? Interpretivists include postmodernists, critical theorists,and feminists, all of whom argue that basically the extant worldpolitical praxis or discourses “constitute” international agents and therebydetermine their actions, even as they reproduce world politics by ...


2021 ◽  
Vol 35 (35) ◽  
pp. 65-80
Author(s):  
Stanisław Zarobny ◽  
Agnieszka Sałek-Imińska

Over the last thirty years, the importance and interest in cultural factors in international relations and in international security has increased. The links between culture and security, and in particular the impact of culture on security, are issues whose importance is growing and which are being increasingly studied. They are regarded as a multifaceted problem, as cultural differences have become the cause of conflicts and wars, and tendencies of cultural domination have led to the destruction of cultures and entire civilizations. It therefore seems interesting to reflect on the process of developing an independent strategic culture of the Russian Federation. The purpose of the article is to discuss the process of shaping the independent strategic culture of the Russian Federation and to address four basic research problems: the sources of Russian strategic culture; the indication which of them are primary and which are secondary ones; determining whether Russian strategic culture underwent evolution; and determining whether then Cold War influenced the shape of today’s strategic culture of the Russian Federation. To achieve the intended purpose of the article, critical analysis of literature is applied, which allowed to find answers to the research questions.


2019 ◽  
pp. 48-67
Author(s):  
Bukola Adeyemi Oyeniyi

This paper, using the case of Boko Haram in Nigeria, examines the impact of technology on future armed conflicts and violent extremism in Nigeria and West Africa. As Africa enters the new digital age, characterized by increasing access to mobile telephoning, internet penetration, 3D printing and the Internet of Things; networking between and among groups with similar ideologies will improve. Results from the author’s recent fieldwork in north-eastern Nigeria are used to shed light on Boko Haram’s activities across border communities in that region where Nigeria’s borders meet those of Niger and Cameroon. Those activities include tactical efforts like mobilizing crowds, disseminating ideologies, recruiting strategic assets, and sharing technical know-how, and have facilitated the transformation of Boko Haram from a dagger-wielding, arrow-shooting group into a deployer of mobile-phone-triggered IEDs, coordinating simultaneous attacks on multiple targets. Undoubtedly, the new digital age guarantees cultural cohesiveness and a more robust outside support that will serve in recruitment, financing, logistics and training. With mobile telephony and internet access providing (dangerous) information and resources to aspiring insurgents, what future awaits Nigeria, West Africa and Africa should Boko Haram gain access to remote controlled flying drones, quadcopters, and other ‘toys’ fitted with homemade bombs and IEDs? What new level of domestic terror would emerge if Boko Haram develops a capacity for cyberterrorism, especially since cyberterrorism affects data and cash, guarantees no risk of personal bodily harm, involves minimal resources commitment, and affords opportunities to inflict a higher level of damage? This study examines these issues and type of responses available to government in dealing with a technology-driven armed conflict and terrorism.


Author(s):  
Dale Copeland

Drawing from theories that examine security-dilemma spiraling and the dynamics of relative decline, the chapter shows that established theories of major war can be made relevant to the nuclear age—once they have incorporated the importance of Cold War spiraling and inadvertent war.The chapter argues that any theory of international relations that seeks to explain changes in the likelihood of nuclear war must incorporate into its causal logic the willingness of states to take actions that risk an inadvertent slide into war. While it may not be rational to initiate a nuclear war against another great power, it may indeed be rational, under certain circumstances, for leaders to switch to hard-line actions that raise the probability of a war neither side would have actively desired prior to the onset of a crisis.


Author(s):  
Hooi Kun Lee ◽  
Abdul Rafiez Abdul Raziff

The value of play has mainly stayed consistent throughout time. Playing is, without a doubt, one of the essential things we can do. Playing in addition to supporting motor, neurological, and social development improves adaptation by encouraging people to explore diverse perspectives on the world and assisting them in developing methods for dealing with problems in a safe setting. The way we play and what we play with have been heavily affected by the quickly evolving technology shaping our daily lives. Artificial intelligence (A.I.) is now found in many products, including vehicles, phones, and vacuum cleaners. This extends to children's items, with the creation of an "Internet of Toys." Many learning, remote control, and app-integrated toys include innovative playthings that employ speech recognition and machine learning to communicate with users. This study examines the impact of technology adoption on the success and failure of two toys industry – Hasbro, Inc and Toys R Us, Inc. The research methodology of this study is based on case studies where the comparison of the two industries was made from a few areas. The finding of the study determines that corporations that evolved consistently with the change of technology will continue to grow in the market. In contrast, the corporation that failed to adopt digital transformation will be a force out of the market.


Cold War II ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 203-222
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Cobb

The chapter claims that it is uncertain whether Hollywood will address the Trump era’s ideological unorthodoxies. The Shape of Water’s magical realist narrative avoids critique of the Realpolitik central to Trump’s statecraft. It instead adopts a stance of anti-McCarthy liberalism by embracing the Russian other, averting the liberal antipathy towards modern Russia lampooned by the pro-Trump “Alt Right.” Red Sparrow also declines to interrogate the recent changes wrought to East-West relations. The film avoids invoking the current state of U.S.-Russia relations and even refuses to reference Vladimir Putin. Evaluating these two disparately received films, the chapter argues that the ideal cinematic representation of Cold War II has yet to arrive, and is precluded from doing so because of bewildering new ideological reconfigurations. Concluding with a reflection on the impact of Black Panther (2018), the chapter posits that allegory might be the most probable method of addressing new International Relations dynamics.


2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 464-481
Author(s):  
Rodger A Payne

Abstract Dr. Strangelove continues to be viewed as one of the most acclaimed films of all-time. Likewise, international relations (IR) experts commonly list the film among the most essential IR-themed movies. The IR scholars who discuss Dr. Strangelove as a text or recommend it for courses generally claim that it can be used to explain nuclear deterrence, the security dilemma, mutually assured destruction, Cold War competition, and various other traditional serious concerns of the field. They also recognize that the satirical film is critical of nuclear strategy. This article considers Dr. Strangelove’s sexual subtext, involving important metaphors and symbols that IR scholars characteristically ignore. Yet, for decades, film critics and scholars from other disciplines have identified and emphasized the importance of the film's comedic “sexual framework” and concluding “wargasm.” Director Stanley Kubrick even acknowledged these key elements in private correspondence. The film suggests that the national security establishment's masculine view of the utility of nuclear weapons and deterrence are comparable to absurd male sexual fantasies. Feminist IR scholars frequently note that mainstream scholars largely ignore their critique of masculine views of the discipline and nuclear strategy. The article concludes that scholars in the field should both prioritize Dr. Strangelove’s sexual subtext and rely upon feminist contributions to help understand those elements.


2019 ◽  
Vol 101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivia Greatbatch ◽  
Alice Garrett ◽  
Katie Snape

Abstract Artificial intelligence (AI) is one of the most significant fields of development in the current digital age. Rapid advancements have raised speculation as to its potential benefits in a wide range of fields, with healthcare often at the forefront. However, amidst this optimism, apprehension and opposition continue to strongly persist. Oft-cited concerns include the threat of unemployment, harm to the doctor–patient relationship and questions of safety and accuracy. In this article, we review both the current and future medical applications of AI within the sub-speciality of cancer genomics.


1994 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Ned Lebow

Three of the more important international developments of the last half century are the “long peace” between the superpowers, the Soviet Union's renunciation of its empire and leading role as a superpower, and the post-cold war transformation of the international system. Realist theories at the international level address the first and third of these developments, and realist theories at the unit level have made an ex post facto attempt to account for the second. The conceptual and empirical weaknesses of these explanations raise serious problems for existing realist theories. Realists contend that the anarchy of the international system shapes interstate behavior. Postwar international relations indicates that international structure is not determining. Fear of anarchy and its consequences encouraged key international actors to modify their behavior with the avowed goal of changing that structure. The pluralist security community that has developed among the democratic industrial powers is in part the result of this process. This community and the end of the cold war provide evidence that states can escape from the security dilemma.


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