Terrorist Signalling and the Value of Intelligence

2007 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 573-586 ◽  
Author(s):  
DANIEL G. ARCE ◽  
TODD SANDLER
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Finding ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Intertemporal Substitution ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Government Response ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Security Hardening ◽  
The Government

This article presents a model of terrorist attacks as signals where the government is uncertain as to whether it is facing a group that is politically motivated or militant. Pooling equilibriums result with two types of ex post regret: P-regret, where the government concedes to political types that would not subsequently attack; and M-regret, where the government does not concede to militant types that subsequently attack at greater levels. Avoidance of such regret defines a measure of the value of intelligence. Counter-terrorism policy can then be characterized in terms of whether a government should focus on increased intelligence versus increased security (hardening targets). The recommended use of asset freezing is also evaluated in terms of the resources required by terrorists to achieve the various equilibriums. Finally, this article supports the empirical finding of intertemporal substitution of resources by terrorists, concerned with the level of government response to their attacks.

scholarly journals Measuring the Effect of Government Response on COVID-19 Pandemic: Empirical Evidence from Japan

COVID ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 276-287
Author(s):  
Rui Wang
Keyword(s):  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Empirical Finding ◽  
Japanese Government ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Multiple Series ◽  
Government Response ◽  
Varying Coefficients ◽  
Flexible Least Squares ◽  
The Government ◽  
Time Varying Coefficients

The basic approach of this research is to use an estimated series of effective reproduction number Rt and multiple series of index from Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) to measure the effect of Japanese government’s response on COVID-19 epidemic by running a time-varying regression with flexible least squares method. Then, we use estimated series of time-varying coefficients obtained from the previous step as proxy variables for the government response’s effect and run stepwise regressions with policy indicators of OxCGRT to identify which specific policy can mitigate the spreading of the COVID-19 epidemic in Japan. The main finding is that the response of Japanese government on COVID-19 epidemic is basically effective. However, the effect of Japanese government’ policy is gradually weakening. Under our identification scheme, we find that policies of quarantine and movement restrictions are still most effective, but policies of public health system do not show much effectiveness in the regression analysis. Another important empirical finding is that policies of economic support are effective in reducing the spread of COVID-19. Within the framework of empirical strategy proposed in this paper, the conclusion should be explained in the context of the socio-political and health situation in Japan, but the methodology is assumed to be applicable to other countries and regions in the analysis of government performance of response to COVID-19.

Deterrence and Democracy

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard A. Falkenrath
Keyword(s):  
War On Terror ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Global War On Terror ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Liberal Democratic ◽  
The Us ◽  
Democratic Societies ◽  
Global War ◽  
Taking Action ◽  
The Given

This chapter examines strategy and deterrence and traces the shift from deterrence by ‘punishment’ to deterrence by ‘denial’ in Washington’s conduct of the Global War on Terror. The former rested on an assumption that the consequences of an action would serve as deterrents. The latter may carry messages of possible consequences, but these are delivered by taking action that removes the capabilities available to opponents – in the given context, the Islamist terrorists challenging the US. Both approaches rest on credibility, but are more complex in the realm of counter-terrorism, where the US authorities have no obvious ‘return to sender’ address and threats to punish have questionable credibility. In this context, denial offers a more realistic way of preventing terrorist attacks. Yet, the advanced means available to the US are deeply ethically problematic in liberal democratic societies. However, there would likely be even bigger questions if governments failed to act.

scholarly journals Educational Level and Tax Compliance: Empirical Evidence From Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 160
Author(s):  
Stanley Ogoun ◽  
Godspower Anthony Ekpulu
Keyword(s):  
Educational Level ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Tax Compliance ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Education Expenditure ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
National Priority ◽  
Ex Post Facto ◽  
The Government

The study interrogates the relationship between educational level and tax compliance in Nigeria. The study employs the ex post facto research design to ascertain how government investment in education enhances tax compliance. The study covers 17 years (2002-2018) for both tax revenue (a surrogate for tax compliance) and education expenditure (a surrogate for educational level). From the empirical results, the study concludes that there is a positive nexus between government expenditure on education and tax revenue. The study, therefore, recommends that as a matter of necessity, the government should invest more in the overall educational demand of her citizens not only from tax revenues but from other oil and non-oil sources. The governments, from the federal and state levels, should act as a matter national priority endeavour to meet up with the international budgetary benchmark allocation for education, as recommended by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) in its Education for All (EFA) document 2000-2015. This will give Nigerians more access to quality education that would result in moving up the global ranking in HDI with its resultant benefits.

scholarly journals Are Policy Analogies Persuasive? The Household Budget Analogy and Public Support for Austerity

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Lucy Barnes ◽  
Timothy Hicks
Keyword(s):  
Analogical Reasoning ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Cognitive Problem ◽  
Government Deficits ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
The Government ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
Household Borrowing

Abstract Public opinion on complex policy questions is shaped by the ways in which elites simplify the issues. Given the prevalence of metaphor and analogy as tools for cognitive problem solving, the deployment of analogies is often proposed as a tool for this kind of influence. For instance, a prominent explanation for the acceptance of austerity is that voters understand government deficits through an analogy to household borrowing. Indeed, there are theoretical reasons to think the household finance analogy represents a most likely case for the causal influence of analogical reasoning on policy preferences. This article examines this best-case scenario using original survey data from the United Kingdom. It reports observational and experimental analyses that find no evidence of causation running from the household analogy to preferences over the government budget. Rather, endorsement of the analogy is invoked ex post to justify support for fiscal consolidation.

scholarly journals Public governance, agility and pandemics: a case study of the UK response to COVID-19

2021 ◽  
pp. 002085232098340
Author(s):  
Paul Joyce
Keyword(s):  
Leadership Role ◽  
Public Confidence ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Public Governance ◽  
Local Initiative ◽  
Government Response ◽  
Local Resources ◽  
The Government ◽  
The One ◽  
The Uk

The UK government’s leaders initially believed that it was among the best-prepared governments for a pandemic. By June 2020, the outcome of the collision between the government’s initial confidence, on the one hand, and the aggressiveness and virulence of COVID-19, on the other, was evident. The UK had one of the worst COVID-19 mortality rates in the world. This article explores the UK government’s response to COVID-19 from a public administration and governance perspective. Using factual information and statistical data, it considers the government’s preparedness and strategic decisions, the delivery of the government response, and public confidence in the government. Points for practitioners Possible lessons for testing through application include: Use the precautionary principle to set planning assumptions in government strategies to create the possibility of government agility during a pandemic. Use central government’s leadership role to facilitate and enable local initiative and operational responses, as well as to take advantage of local resources and assets. Choose smart government responses that address tensions between the goal of saving lives and other government goals, and beware choices that are unsatisfactory compromises.

Terrorism-Related Chemical, Biological, Radiation, and Nuclear Attacks: A Historical Global Comparison Influencing the Emergence of Counter-Terrorism Medicine

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Derrick Tin ◽  
Fredrik Granholm ◽  
Alexander Hart ◽  
Gregory R. Ciottone
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Disaster Medicine ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Fecal Matter ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Global Comparison ◽  
State Terrorism ◽  
Fatal Injuries

Abstract Background: Terrorist attacks are growing in complexity, increasing concerns around the use of chemical, biological, radiation, and nuclear (CBRN) agents. This has led to increasing interest in Counter-Terrorism Medicine (CTM) as a Disaster Medicine (DM) sub-specialty. This study aims to provide the epidemiology of CBRN use in terrorism, to detail specific agents used, and to develop training programs for responders. Methods: The open-source Global Terrorism Database (GTD) was searched for all CBRN attacks from January 1, 1970 through December 31, 2018. Attacks were included if they fulfilled the terrorism-related criteria as set by the GTD’s Codebook. Ambiguous events or those meeting only partial criteria were excluded. The database does not include acts of state terrorism. Results: There were 390 total CBRN incidents, causing 930 total fatal injuries (FI) and 14,167 total non-fatal injuries (NFI). A total of 347 chemical attacks (88.9% of total) caused 921 FI (99.0%) and 13,361 NFI (94.3%). Thirty-one biological attacks (8.0%) caused nine FI (1.0%) and 806 NFI (5.7%). Twelve radiation attacks (3.1%) caused zero FI and zero NFI. There were no nuclear attacks. The use of CBRN accounted for less than 0.3% of all terrorist attacks and is a high-risk, low-frequency attack methodology. The Taliban was implicated in 40 of the 347 chemical events, utilizing a mixture of agents including unconfirmed chemical gases (grey literature suggests white phosphorous and chlorine), contaminating water sources with pesticides, and the use of corrosive acid. The Sarin gas attack in Tokyo contributed to 5,500 NFI. Biological attacks accounted for 8.0% of CBRN attacks. Anthrax was used or suspected in 20 of the 31 events, followed by salmonella (5), ricin (3), fecal matter (1), botulinum toxin (1), and HIV (1). Radiation attacks accounted for 3.1% of CBRN attacks. Monazite was used in 10 of the 12 events, followed by iodine 131 (1) and undetermined irradiated plates (1). Conclusion: Currently, CBRN are low-frequency, high-impact attack modalities and remain a concern given the rising rate of terrorist events. Counter-Terrorism Medicine is a developing DM sub-specialty focusing on the mitigation of health care risks from such events. First responders and health care workers should be aware of historic use of CBRN weapons regionally and globally, and should train and prepare to respond appropriately.

Girl Interrupted

2011 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 463-480 ◽  
Author(s):  
Máiréad Enright
Keyword(s):  
Public Sphere ◽  
Government Response ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Government

This article discusses the case of Shekinah Egan, an Irish Muslim girl who asked to be allowed to wear the hijab to school. It traces the media and government response to her demand, and frames that demand as a citizenship claim. It focuses in particular on a peculiarity of the Irish response; that the government was disinclined to legislate for the headscarf in the classroom. It argues that – perhaps counter-intuitively – the refusal to make law around the hijab operated to silence the citizenship claims at the heart of the Egan case. To this extent, it was a very particular instance of a broader and ongoing pattern of exclusion of the children of migrants from the Irish public sphere.

scholarly journals The Case for the Stateless Society: Law

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 103-118
Author(s):  
Antón Chamberlin ◽  
Walter E. Block
Keyword(s):  
Sharp Contrast ◽  
Mutual Gain ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Stateless Society ◽  
The Government

AbstractWhat is the argument against government? There are several. For one thing, there is automatic exit for failure: businesses that do not earn a profit go bankrupt, and their resources tend to migrate to other, more effective, managers. For another, entrepreneurs operate with their own funds, or those voluntarily entrusted to them. This does not apply to bureaucrats and politicians, in sharp contrast. Perhaps most important, in the case of each and every commercial interaction in the market, buying, selling, renting, lending, borrowing, there is mutual gain at least in the ex ante sense of anticipations, and usually ex post, after the trade, as well. This rarely occurs under statism, at least not with regard to its source of funds, taxation, since it is not voluntary. An exception would be the relatively unimportant cases in which a consumer purchases something from the government, such as a ticket to cross a bridge, or a producer sells something to this organization, such as an airplane. The present paper is an attempt to elaborate upon this considerations.

The Korean 3T practice: A New Biosurveillance Model utilizing New IT and Digital Tools (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
HyunJung Kim
Keyword(s):  
Population Control ◽  
Digital Tools ◽  
Big Brother ◽  
Self Help ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
The Social ◽  
Epidemic Intelligence ◽  
Pandemic Response ◽  
The Government ◽  
Event Based

UNSTRUCTURED South Korea COVID-19 pandemic responses, namely the 3T (testing, tracing, and treating) strategy, come to the fore as a new biosurveillance regime utilizing new IT and digital tools actively. The 3T biosurveillance system is a developed version of the traditional biosurveillance systems (indicator-based or event-based systems), which can provide epidemic intelligence capabilities for both ex ante prevention/preparedness or ex post response/recovery missions. Epidemiological investigation efforts exploiting the use of new digital and IT tools are the ground of the Korean 3T system practicing test, trace, and treatment mission, which can be referred to as ‘contact-based biosurveillance system.’ However, critics argue that the Korea’s 3T strategy may violate individuals’ privacy and human rights in addressing that the Korean biosurveillance system would strengthen the social surveillance and population control by the government as a “digital big brother” in the cyber age. However, closer scrutiny reveals that the Korea’s digital-based biosurveillance system for pandemic response has evolved since the experience of the 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak, by citizen’s requests and self-help behaviors

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