VOTE TRAFFICKING IN LEBANON

2012 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 483-505 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Corstange
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
Vote Buying ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
Sensitive Questions ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Political Alliances ◽  
List Experiment ◽  
Original Survey

AbstractVote buying and vote selling are prominent features of electoral politics in Lebanon. This article investigates how vote trafficking works in Lebanese elections and examines how electoral rules and practices contribute to wide and lively vote markets. Using original survey data from the 2009 parliamentary elections, it studies vote selling with a list experiment, a question technique designed to elicit truthful answers to sensitive questions. The data show that over half of the Lebanese sold their votes in 2009. Moreover, once we come to grips with the sensitivity of the topic, the data show that members of all sectarian communities and political alliances sold their votes at similar rates.

scholarly journals Using the Predicted Responses from List Experiments as Explanatory Variables in Regression Models

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 180-196 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kosuke Imai ◽  
Bethany Park ◽  
Kenneth F. Greene
Keyword(s):  
Survey Methodology ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
Vote Buying ◽  
Sensitive Questions ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Empirical Performance ◽  
Regression Techniques ◽  
List Experiment

The list experiment, also known as the item count technique, is becoming increasingly popular as a survey methodology for eliciting truthful responses to sensitive questions. Recently, multivariate regression techniques have been developed to predict the unobserved response to sensitive questions using respondent characteristics. Nevertheless, no method exists for using this predicted response as an explanatory variable in another regression model. We address this gap by first improving the performance of a naive two-step estimator. Despite its simplicity, this improved two-step estimator can only be applied to linear models and is statistically inefficient. We therefore develop a maximum likelihood estimator that is fully efficient and applicable to a wide range of models. We use a simulation study to evaluate the empirical performance of the proposed methods. We also apply them to the Mexico 2012 Panel Study and examine whether vote-buying is associated with increased turnout and candidate approval. The proposed methods are implemented in open-source software.

Candidates in 2013 Italian general election: evidence from the Italian Candidate Survey

2015 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 317-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aldo Di Virgilio ◽  
Daniela Giannetti ◽  
Andrea Pedrazzani ◽  
Luca Pinto
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Political Representation ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
General Election ◽  
Political Elites ◽  
Potential Applications ◽  
Party Members ◽  
Party Cohesion ◽  
Original Survey

IntroduzioneChanges in electoral politics in contemporary democracies have contributed to shifting the focus of research from parties to individual candidates. The 2013 Italian Candidate Survey (ICS) has collected original survey data with the aim of gaining new insights into the role of political elites, looking in particular at the candidates running for office in the last Italian general election. Based on interviews with individual candidates, the ICS provides a tool for analysing party members; and for comparing them with voters in several ways. In this paper, we spell out the main features of our research that was conducted within the framework of a larger project that examined political representation in Italy between 2013 and 2015. Moreover, we offer three examples of potential applications of ICS data. First, we present a model of political representation favoured by Italian candidates that matches with a well-known typology of political representation. Second, we utilize our ICS data to estimate candidates’ policy preferences and to assess the level of congruence with their voters. Finally, by comparing the distribution of candidates’ self-placements and their own party mean position on the left-right scale, we show how our data can be used to explore intra-party cohesion.

scholarly journals Who gets targeted for vote-buying? Evidence from an augmented list experiment in Turkey

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 547-566 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alı Çarkoğlu ◽  
S. Erdem Aytaç
Keyword(s):  
Multivariate Analyses ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Urban Residents ◽  
Social Desirability Bias ◽  
Vote Buying ◽  
Efficient Manner ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Developing Democracies ◽  
List Experiment

Understanding the dynamics of vote-buying is essential for improving accountability in elections in developing democracies. While list experiments are useful for attenuating social desirability bias associated with measuring vote-buying, they are not conducive to multivariate analyses, and the question of what types of individuals are targeted is left inadequately explored. We overcome this limitation by combining a population-based list experiment with an estimator (LISTIT) that allows for multivariate analyses in an efficient manner. Our analysis suggests that in the 2011 parliamentary elections in Turkey over one-third of the electorate was targeted for vote-buying, which is more than double the proportion willing to admit when asked directly. Additionally, we find that strong partisans of the ruling Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi), less-educated individuals, and urban residents are significantly more likely to be targeted for vote-buying. We present compelling evidence for the hypotheses that parties target their core supporters and socio-economically vulnerable individuals. The strength of our evidence derives from the use of original data on vote-buying that has been collected in an unobtrusive manner and analyzed at the level of individuals.

scholarly journals Corruption, Campaigning, and Novelty: The 2020 Parliamentary Elections and the Evolving Patterns of Party Politics in Slovakia

2021 ◽  
pp. 088832542110127
Author(s):  
Tim Haughton ◽  
Marek Rybář ◽  
Kevin Deegan-Krause
Keyword(s):  
Central And Eastern Europe ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Political Competition ◽  
General Trend ◽  
Party Politics ◽  
Ordinary People ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
Forward Movement ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
The Impact

Party politics across Central and Eastern Europe has become less structured. Many of the divides that anchored political competition have waned in recent years, weakening the attachment of voters to the existing palette of parties and making them more likely to be attracted to new and non-traditional electoral vehicles. But for such parties to succeed at the ballot box, they need to be able to frame elections and campaign effectively. Drawing on data from a specially commissioned survey, we find that the success of Ordinary People and Independent Personalities (OĽaNO) led by Igor Matovič in the 2020 parliamentary elections in Slovakia owed much to the crafting of an anti-corruption appeal combined with an effective campaign. Both mobilization and conversion of voters, particularly through television and the leaders’ debates, in the months leading up to election day ensured OĽaNO won a quarter of the vote. OĽaNO stands in stark contrast to other parties whose leaders failed to craft as effective a message, miscalculated the impact of electoral rules and in some cases were unable to distance themselves enough from their past actions. The success of OĽaNO underlines that themes related to anti-corruption and good governance have become central to party politics and political contestation. More broadly, the election and its aftermath continued a general trend of forward movement of voters from old parties to new to newer still, indicating the churn of party politics in Slovakia is likely to continue.

How Voters Respond to Currency Crises: Evidence From Turkey

2021 ◽  
pp. 001041402110602
Author(s):  
David A. Steinberg
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
Political Attitudes ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Financial Shocks ◽  
The Government ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
And Migration

A burgeoning literature shows that international trade and migration shocks influence individuals’ political attitudes, but relatively little is known about how international financial shocks impact public opinion. This study examines how one prevalent type of international financial shock—currency crises—shapes mass political attitudes. I argue that currency crises reduce average citizens’ support for incumbent governments. I also expect voters’ concerns about their own pocketbooks to influence their response to currency crises. Original survey data from Turkey support these arguments. Exploiting exogenous variation in the currency’s value during the survey window, I show that currency depreciations strongly reduce support for the government. This effect is stronger among individuals that are more negatively affected by depreciation, and it is moderated by individuals’ perceptions of their personal economic situation. This evidence suggests that international financial shocks can strongly influence the opinions of average voters, and it provides further support for pocketbook theories.

Racial Order, Racialized Responses: Interminority Politics in a Diverse Nation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Efrén O. Pérez ◽  
E. Enya Kuo
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Racial Diversity ◽  
Two Dimensions ◽  
People Of Color ◽  
Racial Groups ◽  
Demographic Changes ◽  
Unified Framework ◽  
Political Responses ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
Parallel Growth

America's racial sands are quickly shifting, with parallel growth in theories to explain how varied groups respond, politically, to demographic changes. This Element develops a unified framework to predict when, why, and how racial groups react defensively toward others. America's racial groups can be arrayed along two dimensions: how American and how superior are they considered? This Element claims that location along these axes motivates political reactions to outgroups. Using original survey data and experiments, this Element reveals the acute sensitivity that people of color have to their social station and how it animates political responses to racial diversity.

Clientelism and Vote-Maximizing in Indigenous Latin America

2020 ◽  
pp. 178-199
Author(s):  
Karleen Jones West
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Vote Buying

The analysis presented in this chapter indicates that indigenous voters are disproportionately targeted as clients in vote-buying schemes, which is why the distribution of patronage has become a necessary vote-maximizing strategy for ethnic-party candidates to utilize to earn votes. This finding gives further credence to the argument that ethnic-party candidates must compete using the tactics employed by mainstream candidates to win votes. As such, it was unfair to expect that ethnic-party candidates could ever be more consistently policy-focused, given the expectations of patronage that indigenous constituents have during campaign season. To demonstrate the power of clientelism as a technique to attract indigenous supporters, this chapter analyzes AmericasBarometer survey data from fifteen countries across Latin America. The results show that not only are indigenous voters more likely to be targeted for clientelism, but ethnic-party supporters specifically are also more likely to be approached to sell their votes. These findings therefore provide evidence of the generalizability of the argument that ethnic-party candidates face strong incentives to engage in the clientelist behavior of mainstream parties in order to win votes across Latin America.

scholarly journals Do Unto Others? Individual-Level Mechanisms of Political Altruism

2019 ◽  
Vol 63 (4) ◽  
pp. 430-443
Author(s):  
Marco Giugni ◽  
Maria T. Grasso
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Asylum Seekers ◽  
Social Groups ◽  
Altruistic Behavior ◽  
Unemployed People ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Social Structural ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Refugees And Asylum Seekers

Starting from a definition of altruism as situations in which a given actor sustains harm while another actor gains benefits, we compare the behaviors of respondents in relation to the members of three main groups of beneficiaries—refugees and asylum seekers, unemployed people, and people with disabilities—through the analysis of original survey data collected in eight European countries ( N ~ 16,000) in the TransSOL project. We investigate in particular the reasons why people act on behalf of each of these three groups without being a member of any of them or having close ties with any individuals in these groups. These respondents are compared with respondents who are members of these groups and/or have close ties with people within them so as to isolate the factors underlying individual-level altruistic behavior. Our results show that political altruism emerges out of a complex combination of factors and is not simply reducible to social structural positions, subjective feelings of attachment or resources, but is the result of the interaction of these influences and that these vary when looking at support for different social groups.

scholarly journals Analyzing Indonesia’s Populist Electorate

Asian Survey ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (5) ◽  
pp. 769-794 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Fossati ◽  
Marcus Mietzner
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
Demographic Patterns

Using original survey data, we test the level, distribution, and demographic patterns of populist attitudes in Indonesia. Populist attitudes are widely spread across the political spectrum; disproportionately high in the middle and upper classes; and particularly robust when coupled with other primary ideologies, such as Islamism and secularism.

scholarly journals Referenda as commitment devices – an experimental approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 205316802094341
Author(s):  
Florian Justwan ◽  
Sarah K. Fisher ◽  
Ashley Kerr ◽  
Jeffrey D. Berejikian
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Majority Vote ◽  
Territorial Dispute ◽  
Political Event ◽  
Political Issues ◽  
Research Perspective ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
International Court ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
Commitment Devices

This research note evaluates the claim that referenda can serve as useful commitment devices in international negotiations. More specifically, we relied on individual-level survey data to test the claim that governments can successfully “tie their hands” to policy choices by calling referenda on political issues. Our empirical analysis relied on original survey data collected in April 2019 in Belize. In so doing, we took advantage of an unusual political event. On 8 May (shortly after our survey), Belizean citizens participated in a countrywide plebiscite. During this vote, they decided to send their country’s territorial dispute with Guatemala for adjudication to the International Court of Justice. From a research perspective, this event allowed us to assess the effect of disregarded referendum results in a highly salient political environment. Our experimental analysis suggested that individuals do reprimand their governments for failing to implement a majority vote (a) even if this choice precipitates a person’s favored substantive outcome, and (b) irrespective of an individual’s preferred party.

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