scholarly journals Stochastic simulation of the cost of home-produced feeds for ruminant livestock systems

2011 ◽  
Vol 150 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. FINNERAN ◽  
P. CROSSON ◽  
P. O'KIELY ◽  
L. SHALLOO ◽  
D. FORRISTAL ◽  
...  

SUMMARYAn agro-economic simulation model was developed to facilitate comparison of the impact of management, market and biological factors on the cost of providing ruminant livestock with feed grown on the farm (home produced feed). Unpredictable year-to-year variation in crop yields and input prices were identified as quantifiable measures of risk affecting feed cost. Stochastic analysis was used to study the impact of yield and input price risk on the variability of feed cost for eight feeds grown in Ireland over a 10-year period. Intensively grazed perennial ryegrass was found to be the lowest cost feed in the current analysis (mean cost €74/1000 Unité Fourragère Viande (UFV)). Yield risk was identified as the greatest single factor affecting feed cost variability. At mean prices and yields, purchased rolled barley was found to be 3% less costly than home-produced spring-sown barley. However, home-produced spring barley was marginally less risky than purchased barley (coefficient of variation (CV) 0·063 v. 0·064). Feed crops incurring the greatest proportion of fixed costs and area-dependent variable costs, including bunker grass silage, were the most sensitive to yield fluctuations. The most energy input-intensive feed crops, such as grass silage, both baled and bunker ensiled, were deemed most susceptible to input price fluctuations. Maize silage was the most risky feed crop (CV 0·195), with potential to be both the cheapest and the most expensive conserved feed.

Author(s):  
M. Ward ◽  
P.D. Forristal ◽  
K. McDonnell

The reduction in cereal crop yields on field headlands has previously been examined in other geographical regions, with research focusing on the relationship between yield and the distance from the crop edge. Headlands are subject to greater machinery trafficking than the centre of the field and the level of traffic imposed depends on the machine size and adopted turning practice. The aim of this work was to examine the impact of turning headlands on crop performance in a survey of 40 field sites in Irish conditions. The headland was categorised into three distinct zones: the area next to the field edge subject to moderate traffic intensities (field edge); the main headland area of greatest turning traffic (turning) and a transition zone (transition). An in-field zone (in-field) in which no machinery turns occur was also included. The 2-year survey included sites from three regions, four soil texture classes and had crops established with plough-based systems. Crop measurements, including plant densities, shoot counts and light interception, and yields were recorded at each site and included winter barley (WB), spring barley (SB) and winter wheat (WW) crops. The yield response of each crop type varied with sample zone, region and soil texture. There were significant (P < 0.001) yield differences recorded between the turning area and in-field zone for all three crops. Winter barley yields were reduced by 1.3 t/ha in the turning zone compared with the in-field section, while SB and WW had yield reductions of 2.08 and 4.04 t/ha, respectively, between these two field zones.


1971 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-57
Author(s):  
Leroy Quance ◽  
Luther Tweeten

A 1964 survey of 500 wheat producers in Oklahoma and Kansas revealed that the cost-price squeeze is most commonly viewed by farmers as the major cause of chronically low farm income.The cost side of the squeeze is widely attributed to the wage-price spiral caused by cycles of wage and input price increases negotiated between labor unions and imperfectly competitive firms, and to rising taxes and interest rates.


BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. e035389
Author(s):  
Erin Roman ◽  
Brecht Cardoen ◽  
Jan Decloedt ◽  
Filip Roodhooft

ObjectivesUsing a standardised diagnostic and generic treatment path for breast cancer, and the molecular subtype perspective, we aim to measure the impact of several patient and disease characteristics on the overall treatment cost for patients. Additionally, we aim to generate insights into the drivers of cost variability within one medical domain.Design, setting and participantsWe conducted a retrospective study at a breast clinic in Belgium. We used 14 anonymous patient files for conducting our analysis.ResultsSignificant cost variations within each molecular subtype and across molecular subtypes were found. For the luminal A classification, the cost differential amounts to roughly 166%, with the greatest treatment cost amounting to US$29 780 relative to US$11 208 for a patient requiring fewer medical activities. The major driver for these cost variations relates to disease characteristics. For the luminal B classification, a cost difference of roughly 242% exists due to both disease-related and patient-related factors. The average treatment cost for triple negative patients amounted to US$26 923, this is considered to be a more aggressive type of cancer. The overall cost for HER2-enriched is driven by the inclusion of Herceptin, thus this subtype is impacted by disease characteristics. Cost variability across molecular classifications is impacted by the severity of the disease, thus disease-related factors are the major drivers of cost.ConclusionsGiven the cost challenge in healthcare, the need for greater cost transparency has become imperative. Through our analysis, we generate initial insights into the drivers of cost variability for breast cancer. We found evidence that disease characteristics such as severity and more aggressive cancer forms such as HER2-enriched and triple negative have a significant impact on treatment cost across the different subtypes. Similarly, patient factors such as age and presence of gene mutation contribute to differences in treatment cost variability within molecular subtypes.


Geosciences ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 420 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Hood-Nowotny ◽  
Andrea Watzinger ◽  
Anna Wawra ◽  
Gerhard Soja

Field studies of biochar addition to soil and nutrient cycling using 15N fertilizers in temperate agriculture are scant. These data are required in order to make evidence based assessments. This study was conducted to test the hypothesis that biochar application can increase crop yields through improving the nitrogen uptake and utilization of added inorganic fertilizer, whilst sequestering significant quantities of carbon. Results showed that although biochar addition led to significant spring barley grain yield increases in the first year of biochar application, an unusually dry year; this was possibly not solely the result of improved nitrogen uptake, as total crop N was similar in both treatments. Results suggested it was improved water utilization, indicated by the crop carbon isotope values and soil moisture characteristics. In the second year, there were no significant effects of the previous year’s biochar addition on the sunflower yield, N status, fertilizer recovery or any signs of improved water utilization. These data add to a growing body of evidence, suggesting that biochar addition has only slightly positive or neutral effects on crop growth and fertilizer retention but has the potential to sequester vast amounts of carbon in the soil with minimal yield losses in temperate agriculture.


Author(s):  
Aldona Skarżyńska ◽  
Łukasz Pietrych

The aim of the study was to determine the predicted impact of the rate of yield change and product prices as well as prices of inputs for agricultural production on the profitability of winter wheat, winter rye, spring barley and winter oilseed rape in the perspective of 2022. Classic models of development tendency were used to make the projection. In order to define expected changes in revenues and costs by 2022, the average product performance for 2013-2015 was taken as the starting point for the projection. Due to the variability in crop yields and product sales prices, projection variants were also made. The research shows that the production profitability (the ratio of production value to total costs, i.e. direct and indirect costs) of wheat, rye and oilseed rape will increase in 2022 by 7.8-17.6 % compared to projection base years, whereas the economic efficiency of barley production will decrease (by 0.8%). The results indicate a much greater variability in price than in yield over the years. The impact of price on the production profitability will be greater as well. It was found that oilseed race and barley are characterized by relatively high sensitivity to variability in yield and price (greater than in the case of wheat and rye).


Ekonomika ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 98 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-111
Author(s):  
Rimas Butkevičius

Consequential (or indirect) losses in the form of lost profits are usually suffered and claimed in civil cases of breaches of supply or service contracts, unfair competition, bankruptcy cases, and other instances where a defendant’s wrongful actions cause lost profits to the plaintiff’s performance.In litigation practice, we see a quite different approach, when the lost profits are calculated as gross margin less income tax, and in others – by multiplying the lost revenues by the company’s net profit ratio.Methods of indirect loss calculation applied do not consider the cost structure of the plaintiff and the impact of the variation of variable and fixed costs to the lost profit calculation before and after the wrongful action of the defendant. In case lost revenues would have been received, fixed costs would remain the same, while variable (incremental) costs, which were avoided, would be generated to receive lost revenues.Based on the international experience and practices, this article provides for a Universal Model of lost profits calculation as well as a mathematical formula of the method.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Miethke-Morais ◽  
Alex Cassenote ◽  
Heloísa Piva ◽  
Eric Tokunaga ◽  
Vilson Cobello ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTIntroductionAlthough patients’ clinical conditions were previously shown to be associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity and outcomes, their impact on hospital costs is not known. The economic evaluation of COVID-19 admissions allows the assessment of hospital costs associated with the treatment of these patients, including the main cost components and costs driven by demographic and clinical conditions. The aim of this study was to determine the COVID-19 hospitalization-related costs and their association with clinical conditions.MethodsProspective observational cohort study of the hospitalization costs of patients with COVID-19 admitted between March 30 and June 30, 2020, who were followed until discharge, death, or external transfer, using micro-costing methodology. The study was carried out in the Central Institute of the Hospital das Clinicas, affiliated with the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Sao Paulo, Brazil, which is the largest hospital complex in Latin America and was designated to exclusively admit COVID-19 patients during the pandemic response.ResultsThe average cost of the 3,254 admissions (51.7% of which involved intensive care unit (ICU) stays) was US$12,637.42. Overhead cost was the main cost component, followed by daily fixed costs and drugs. Sex, age and underlying hypertension (US$14,746.77), diabetes (US$15,002.12), obesity (US$18,941.55), cancer (US$10,315.06), chronic renal failure (US$15,377.84), and rheumatic (US$17,764.61), hematologic (US$15,908.25) and neurologic diseases (US$15,257.95) were significantly associated with higher costs. Age >69 years, RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19, comorbidities, the use of mechanical ventilation, dialysis, or surgery, and poor outcomes remained significantly associated with higher costs after model adjustment.ConclusionKnowledge of COVID-19-associated hospital costs and their impact across different populations can aid in the development of a generalizable and comprehensive approach to hospital preparedness, decision-making and planning for future risk management. Determining the disease-associated costs is the first step in evaluating the cost-effectiveness of treatments and vaccination programs.SUMMARY BOXQuestionWhat are the COVID-19 hospitalization-related costs?FindingsIn this prospective cohort that was carried out in a single reference quaternary center designated for the treatment of severe cases of COVID-19, more than three thousand patients were included, and their costs of hospitalization were found to be directly related to the age and comorbidities. The costs were more than 50% higher in older patients, 10-24% higher in patients with comorbidities, and 24-200% higher when additional therapeutic procedures were required.MeaningDetermining the disease-associated costs is the first step in conducting future evaluations of the cost-effectiveness of treatments and vaccination programs, supporting their implementation with a comprehensive population-based approach.


Author(s):  
Fatos Krasniqi ◽  
Muhamet Kamberi ◽  
Enkelejda Emiri-Sallaku ◽  
Ragip Kastrati ◽  
Myqerem Tafaj

One-year investigation is carried out aimed at evaluating all incomes and costs with a specific focus on the impact of feeding factors in 12 Holstein dairy farms (in total 284 cows) in Kosovo. The cost of on-farm produced feeds; the price of purchased feeds and the price of milk were used for the analysis. All costs created during this period are duly registered and considered in the analysis. Economic analysis showed that prices of on-farm produced feed were much lower (30 €/ton for silages and for hay). Average daily feed cost was 2.33 €/cow/day, while milk income was only 4.9 €/d. Individual feed groups contributed to total milk cost as follows: silages with 0.04 €/kg, dry roughages with 0.02 €/kg, and concentrates with 0.10 €/kg, while all other factors taken 0.13 €/kg of milk price. This study showed that feed was the largest farm expense making 68% of total farm costs.


Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1107
Author(s):  
Julio Berbel ◽  
Javier Martínez-Dalmau

Farmers in the developed world tend to over-apply fertilizer, and we explore a model for decision-making under uncertainty in yields. This article proposes an agro-economic model for farmer decision-making based on subjective expected yield and crop response to fertilization. The model explores subjective yield probability distributions that are both better suited to subjective crop yields than the previously proposed probability distribution and is easier to extract from farmers. The model allows the analysis of the impact of changes in fertilizer price and variance of expected yields. The model result is consistent with observed farmer behavior based on the rule of “fertilizing for the good years” that appears, according to our model, as rational and consistent with expected profit maximization under yield uncertainty since the cost of over-application is lower than that of the opportunity cost of under-application. The goal of increasing the efficiency of nitrogen use requires both technical innovation and an expansion of the knowledge on the socioeconomic factors underlying excessive crop fertilization that must be improved both to meet future food demands and to prevent environmental degradation and climate change.


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