scholarly journals Effectiveness modelling of digital contact-tracing solutions for tackling the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-34
Author(s):  
Viktoriia Shubina ◽  
Aleksandr Ometov ◽  
Anahid Basiri ◽  
Elena Simona Lohan

AbstractSince the beginning of the coronavirus (COVID-19) global pandemic, digital contact-tracing applications (apps) have been at the centre of attention as a digital tool to enable citizens to monitor their social distancing, which appears to be one of the leading practices for mitigating the spread of airborne infectious diseases. Many countries have been working towards developing suitable digital contact-tracing apps to allow the measurement of the physical distance between citizens and to alert them when contact with an infected individual has occurred. However, the adoption of digital contact-tracing apps has faced several challenges so far, including interoperability between mobile devices and users’ privacy concerns. There is a need to reach a trade-off between the achievable technical performance of new technology, false-positive rates, and social and behavioural factors. This paper reviews a wide range of factors and classifies them into three categories of technical, epidemiological and social ones, and incorporates these into a compact mathematical model. The paper evaluates the effectiveness of digital contact-tracing apps based on received signal strength measurements. The results highlight the limitations, potential and challenges of the adoption of digital contact-tracing apps.

Author(s):  
Amaury Lambert

AbstractIn our model of the COVID-19 epidemic, infected individuals can be of four types, according whether they are asymptomatic (A) or symptomatic (I), and use a contact tracing mobile phone app (Y) or not (N). We denote by f the fraction of A’s, by y the fraction of Y’s and by R0 the average number of secondary infections from a random infected individual.We investigate the effect of non-electronic interventions (voluntary isolation upon symptom onset, quarantining private contacts) and of electronic interventions (contact tracing thanks to the app), depending on the willingness to quarantine, parameterized by four cooperating probabilities.For a given ‘effective’ R0 obtained with non-electronic interventions, we use nonnegative matrix theory and stopping line techniques to characterize mathematically the minimal fraction y0 of app users needed to curb the epidemic. We show that under a wide range of scenarios, the threshold y0 as a function of R0 rises steeply from 0 at R0= 1 to prohibitively large values (of the order of 60 – 70% up) whenever R0 is above 1.3. Our results show that moderate rates of adoption of a contact tracing app can reduce R0 but are by no means sufficient to reduce it below 1 unless it is already very close to 1 thanks to non-electronic interventions.


Author(s):  
Ben Bradford ◽  
Julia A Yesberg ◽  
Jonathan Jackson ◽  
Paul Dawson

Abstract Facial recognition technology is just one of a suite of new digital tools police and other security providers around the world are adopting in an effort to function more safely and efficiently. This paper reports results from a major new London-based study exploring public responses to Live Facial Recognition (LFR): a technology that enables police to carry out real-time automated identity checks in public spaces. We find that public trust and legitimacy are important factors predicting the acceptance or rejection of LFR. Crucially, trust and, particularly, legitimacy seem to serve to alleviate privacy concerns about police use of this technology. In an era where police use of new technologies is only likely to increase, especially as the Covid-19 global pandemic develops, these findings have important implications for police–public relations and how the ‘public voice’ is fed into debates.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Damyanka Tsvyatkova ◽  
Manzar Abbas ◽  
Sarah Beecham ◽  
Jim Buckley ◽  
Muslim Chochlov ◽  
...  

BACKGROUND The silent transmission of COVID-19 has led to an exponential growth of fatal infections. With over 3 million deaths world-wide, the need to control and stem transmission has never been more critical. New COVID-19 vaccines offer hope. However, administration timelines, long-term protection, and effectiveness against variants are still unknown. In this context, Contact Tracing, and digital Contact Tracing Apps (CTAs) continue to offer a mechanism to help contain transmission, keep people safe, and help kickstart economies. However, CTAs must address a wide range of often conflicting concerns which make their development/evolution complex: for example, the app must preserve citizens’ privacy whilst gleaning their close contacts and as much epidemiological information as possible. OBJECTIVE In this paper, we derive a compare-and-contrast evaluative framework for CTAs that captures best-of-breed development and evolution concerns for CTAs organized into seven pillars. As our goal is to integrate and expand on existing work in this domain, with a particular focus on citizen adoption, we call this framework the Citizen-Focused Compare-and-Contrast Evaluation Framework (C3EF) for CTAs. METHODS The framework has been derived through mixed methods. First, we reviewed the related literature on CTAs and mHealth app evaluations, from which we derived a preliminary set of attributes and organizing pillars. These attributes were validated, augmented, and refined by applying the provisional framework against a selection of CTAs. At this point, questions to probe each attribute of the framework were formulated and iteratively tested on selected CTAs. Each framework pillar was then subjected to internal cross-team scrutiny where domain experts responsible for developing a pillar defended its sufficiency, relevancy, specificity, and non-redundancy. The consolidated framework was further validated on the selected CTAs to create a refined version of C3EF for CTAs. RESULTS The final framework presents seven pillars exploring issues related to CTA’s design, adoption, and use: (General) Characteristics, Usability, Data Protection, Effectiveness, Transparency, Technical Performance, and Citizen Autonomy. The pillars encompass attributes, sub-attributes, and a set of illustrative questions (with associated example answers) to support app design, evaluation, and evolution. An online version of the framework has been made available to developers, health authorities, and others interested in assessing CTAs. CONCLUSIONS Our CTA evaluation-concerns framework provides a holistic compare-and-contrast tool that supports the work of decision-makers in the development and evolution of CTAs for citizens. This framework supports reflection on design decisions to better understand and optimize the design compromises in play when evolving current CTAs for increased public adoption. We intend it to act as a foundation for other researchers to build on and extend, as the technology matures and new CTAs become available.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 53
Author(s):  
Amaury Lambert

In our model of the COVID-19 epidemic, infected individuals can be of four types, according whether they are asymptomatic (A) or symptomatic (I), and use a contact tracing mobile phone application (Y ) or not (N). We denote by R0 the average number of secondary infections from a random infected individual. We investigate the effect of non-digital interventions (voluntary isolation upon symptom onset, quarantining private contacts) and of digital interventions (contact tracing thanks to the app), depending on the willingness to quarantine, parameterized by four cooperating probabilities. For a given ‘effective’ R0 obtained with non-digital interventions, we use non-negative matrix theory and stopping line techniques to characterize mathematically the minimal fraction y0 of app users needed to curb the epidemic, i.e., for the epidemic to die out with probability 1. We show that under a wide range of scenarios, the threshold y0 as a function of R0 rises steeply from 0 at R0 = 1 to prohibitively large values (of the order of 60−70% up) whenever R0 is above 1.3. Our results show that moderate rates of adoption of a contact tracing app can reduce R0 but are by no means sufficient to reduce it below 1 unless it is already very close to 1 thanks to non-digital interventions.


Author(s):  
E.D. Wolf

Most microelectronics devices and circuits operate faster, consume less power, execute more functions and cost less per circuit function when the feature-sizes internal to the devices and circuits are made smaller. This is part of the stimulus for the Very High-Speed Integrated Circuits (VHSIC) program. There is also a need for smaller, more sensitive sensors in a wide range of disciplines that includes electrochemistry, neurophysiology and ultra-high pressure solid state research. There is often fundamental new science (and sometimes new technology) to be revealed (and used) when a basic parameter such as size is extended to new dimensions, as is evident at the two extremes of smallness and largeness, high energy particle physics and cosmology, respectively. However, there is also a very important intermediate domain of size that spans from the diameter of a small cluster of atoms up to near one micrometer which may also have just as profound effects on society as “big” physics.


2019 ◽  
pp. 5-22
Author(s):  
Szymon Buczyński

Recent technological revolutions in data and communication systemsenable us to generate and share data much faster than ever before. Sophisticated data tools aim to improve knowledge and boost confdence. That technological tools will only get better and user-friendlier over the years, big datacan be considered an important tool for the arts and culture sector. Statistical analysis, econometric methods or data mining techniques could pave theway towards better understanding of the mechanisms occurring on the artmarket. Moreover crime reduction and prevention challenges in today’sworld are becoming increasingly complex and are in need of a new techniquethat can handle the vast amount of information that is being generated. Thisarticle provides an examination of a wide range of new technological innovations (IT) that have applications in the areas of culture preservation andheritage protection. The author provides a description of recent technological innovations, summarize the available research on the extent of adoptionon selected examples, and then review the available research on the eachform of new technology. Furthermore the aim of this paper is to explore anddiscuss how big data analytics affect innovation and value creation in cultural organizations and shape consumer behavior in cultural heritage, arts andcultural industries. This paper discusses also the likely impact of big dataanalytics on criminological research and theory. Digital criminology supports huge data base in opposition to conventional data processing techniques which are not only in suffcient but also out dated. This paper aims atclosing a gap in the academic literature showing the contribution of a bigdata approach in cultural economics, policy and management both froma theoretical and practice-based perspective. This work is also a startingpoint for further research.


Author(s):  
Alyssa T Brooks ◽  
Hannah K Allen ◽  
Louise Thornton ◽  
Tracy Trevorrow

Abstract Health behavior researchers should refocus and retool as it becomes increasingly clear that the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic surpass the direct effects of COVID-19 and include unique, drastic, and ubiquitous consequences for health behavior. The circumstances of the pandemic have created a natural experiment, allowing researchers focusing on a wide range of health behaviors and populations with the opportunity to use previously collected and future data to study: (a) changes in health behavior prepandemic and postpandemic, (b) health behavior prevalence and needs amidst the pandemic, and (c) the effects of the pandemic on short- and long-term health behavior. Our field is particularly challenged as we attempt to consider biopsychosocial, political, and environmental factors that affect health and health behavior. These realities, while daunting, should call us to action to refocus and retool our research, prevention, and intervention efforts


Informatics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 48
Author(s):  
My Villius Zetterholm ◽  
Yanqing Lin ◽  
Päivi Jokela

Digital contact tracing applications (CTAs) have been one of the most widely discussed technical methods of controlling the COVID-19 outbreak. The effectiveness of this technology and its ethical justification depend highly on public acceptance and adoption. This study aims to describe the current knowledge about public acceptance of CTAs and identify individual perspectives, which are essential to consider concerning CTA acceptance and adoption. In this scoping review, 25 studies from four continents across the globe are compiled, and critical topics are identified and discussed. The results show that public acceptance varies across national cultures and sociodemographic strata. Lower acceptance among people who are mistrusting, socially disadvantaged, or those with low technical skills suggest a risk that CTAs may amplify existing inequities. Regarding determinants of acceptance, eight themes emerged, covering both attitudes and behavioral perspectives that can influence acceptance, including trust, privacy concerns, social responsibility, perceived health threat, experience of and access to technologies, performance expectancy and perceived benefits, and understanding. Furthermore, widespread misconceptions about the CTA function are a topic in need of immediate attention to ensure the safe use of CTAs. The intention-action gap is another topic in need of more research.


Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 608
Author(s):  
Danielle Burton ◽  
Suzanne Lenhart ◽  
Christina J. Edholm ◽  
Benjamin Levy ◽  
Michael L. Washington ◽  
...  

The 2014–2016 West African outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) was the largest and most deadly to date. Contact tracing, following up those who may have been infected through contact with an infected individual to prevent secondary spread, plays a vital role in controlling such outbreaks. Our aim in this work was to mechanistically represent the contact tracing process to illustrate potential areas of improvement in managing contact tracing efforts. We also explored the role contact tracing played in eventually ending the outbreak. We present a system of ordinary differential equations to model contact tracing in Sierra Leonne during the outbreak. Using data on cumulative cases and deaths, we estimate most of the parameters in our model. We include the novel features of counting the total number of people being traced and tying this directly to the number of tracers doing this work. Our work highlights the importance of incorporating changing behavior into one’s model as needed when indicated by the data and reported trends. Our results show that a larger contact tracing program would have reduced the death toll of the outbreak. Counting the total number of people being traced and including changes in behavior in our model led to better understanding of disease management.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Cencetti ◽  
G. Santin ◽  
A. Longa ◽  
E. Pigani ◽  
A. Barrat ◽  
...  

AbstractDigital contact tracing is a relevant tool to control infectious disease outbreaks, including the COVID-19 epidemic. Early work evaluating digital contact tracing omitted important features and heterogeneities of real-world contact patterns influencing contagion dynamics. We fill this gap with a modeling framework informed by empirical high-resolution contact data to analyze the impact of digital contact tracing in the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate how well contact tracing apps, coupled with the quarantine of identified contacts, can mitigate the spread in real environments. We find that restrictive policies are more effective in containing the epidemic but come at the cost of unnecessary large-scale quarantines. Policy evaluation through their efficiency and cost results in optimized solutions which only consider contacts longer than 15–20 minutes and closer than 2–3 meters to be at risk. Our results show that isolation and tracing can help control re-emerging outbreaks when some conditions are met: (i) a reduction of the reproductive number through masks and physical distance; (ii) a low-delay isolation of infected individuals; (iii) a high compliance. Finally, we observe the inefficacy of a less privacy-preserving tracing involving second order contacts. Our results may inform digital contact tracing efforts currently being implemented across several countries worldwide.


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