scholarly journals A Mathematical Model of Contact Tracing during the 2014–2016 West African Ebola Outbreak

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 608
Author(s):  
Danielle Burton ◽  
Suzanne Lenhart ◽  
Christina J. Edholm ◽  
Benjamin Levy ◽  
Michael L. Washington ◽  
...  

The 2014–2016 West African outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) was the largest and most deadly to date. Contact tracing, following up those who may have been infected through contact with an infected individual to prevent secondary spread, plays a vital role in controlling such outbreaks. Our aim in this work was to mechanistically represent the contact tracing process to illustrate potential areas of improvement in managing contact tracing efforts. We also explored the role contact tracing played in eventually ending the outbreak. We present a system of ordinary differential equations to model contact tracing in Sierra Leonne during the outbreak. Using data on cumulative cases and deaths, we estimate most of the parameters in our model. We include the novel features of counting the total number of people being traced and tying this directly to the number of tracers doing this work. Our work highlights the importance of incorporating changing behavior into one’s model as needed when indicated by the data and reported trends. Our results show that a larger contact tracing program would have reduced the death toll of the outbreak. Counting the total number of people being traced and including changes in behavior in our model led to better understanding of disease management.

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 608
Author(s):  
Ayoung Suh ◽  
Mengjun Li

This study explores how people appraise the use of contact tracing apps during the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in South Korea. Despite increasing attention paid to digital tracing for health disasters, few studies have empirically examined user appraisal, emotion, and their continuance intention to use contact tracing apps for disaster management during an infectious disease outbreak. A mixed-method approach combining qualitative and quantitative inquiries was employed. In the qualitative study, by conducting interviews with 25 people who have used mobile apps for contact tracing, the way users appraise contact tracing apps for COVID-19 was explored. In the quantitative study, using data collected from 506 users of the apps, the interplay among cognitive appraisal (threats and opportunities) and its association with user emotion, and continuance intention was examined. The findings indicate that once users experience loss emotions, such as anger, frustration, and disgust, they are not willing to continue using the apps. App designers should consider providing technological affordances that enable users to have a sense of control over the technology so that they do not experience loss emotions. Public policymakers should also consider developing measures that can balance public health and personal privacy.


2018 ◽  
Vol 93 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hualei Wang ◽  
Gary Wong ◽  
Wenjun Zhu ◽  
Shihua He ◽  
Yongkun Zhao ◽  
...  

ABSTRACT Ebola virus (EBOV) infections result in aggressive hemorrhagic fever in humans, with fatality rates reaching 90% and with no licensed specific therapeutics to treat ill patients. Advances over the past 5 years have firmly established monoclonal antibody (MAb)-based products as the most promising therapeutics for treating EBOV infections, but production is costly and quantities are limited; therefore, MAbs are not the best candidates for mass use in the case of an epidemic. To address this need, we generated EBOV-specific polyclonal F(ab′)2 fragments from horses hyperimmunized with an EBOV vaccine. The F(ab′)2 was found to potently neutralize West African and Central African EBOV in vitro. Treatment of nonhuman primates (NHPs) with seven doses of 100 mg/kg F(ab′)2 beginning 3 or 5 days postinfection (dpi) resulted in a 100% survival rate. Notably, NHPs for which treatment was initiated at 5 dpi were already highly viremic, with observable signs of EBOV disease, which demonstrated that F(ab′)2 was still effective as a therapeutic agent even in symptomatic subjects. These results show that F(ab′)2 should be advanced for clinical testing in preparation for future EBOV outbreaks and epidemics. IMPORTANCE EBOV is one of the deadliest viruses to humans. It has been over 40 years since EBOV was first reported, but no cure is available. Research breakthroughs over the past 5 years have shown that MAbs constitute an effective therapy for EBOV infections. However, MAbs are expensive and difficult to produce in large amounts and therefore may only play a limited role during an epidemic. A cheaper alternative is required, especially since EBOV is endemic in several third world countries with limited medical resources. Here, we used a standard protocol to produce large amounts of antiserum F(ab′)2 fragments from horses vaccinated with an EBOV vaccine, and we tested the protectiveness in monkeys. We showed that F(ab′)2 was effective in 100% of monkeys even after the animals were visibly ill with EBOV disease. Thus, F(ab′)2 could be a very good option for large-scale treatments of patients and should be advanced to clinical testing.


Author(s):  
Elizabeth S. Higgs ◽  
Sheri A. Dubey ◽  
Beth A. G. Coller ◽  
Jakub K. Simon ◽  
Laura Bollinger ◽  
...  

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Bainga Kangbai ◽  
Ahmed Alameldeen

Abstract Background In Early August 2014, the World Health Organisation declared an Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in the region of West Africa. The West African EVD outbreak was the largest, most severe, and complex in the nearly four-decade history of this disease. The management of EVD cases in Liberia was similar to the other affected West African countries. Methods We reviewed the method and strategies used by some of the international humanitarian organisations in handling the 2013-2016 Ebola outbreak in Liberia. This report is a collection of personal field experiences in Liberia as well as personal interviews of healthcare personnel working for some of these international organisations working on the Ebola emergency in Liberia. Findings Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) was the first humanitarian NGO to deploy medical staff to the field in Liberia during the 2013-2016 EVD outbreak. MSF staffs were already operating in Liberia even before the declaration of the outbreak in August 2014.Conclusions The slow response by the international humanitarian organisations to lend their support in bringing the EVD outbreak to and exhibited the fear the international community have for deadly infectious diseases more than armed conflicts.Recommendations We recommend regularly training in public health emergency preparedness for third world countries that are highly susceptible to health emergencies such as Ebola outbreak to help prepared them ahead of such outbreak.


2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 268-298
Author(s):  
Gloria C. Nwafor ◽  
Anthony O. Nwafor

The recent outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease (evd) in the West African sub-region sprung challenges on the healthcare providers in the observance of their ethical rules in dealing with their patients and the State in fulfilling its obligations to ensure that the rights of patients are respected in times of public health emergency. The ethical rules of medical practice demand that the healthcare providers prefer the interests of their patients to the preservation of self. The State is by law under obligation to protect and respect the rights of the patients in all situations. The paper argues that the responses by the healthcare providers and the States in the West African sub region in the wake of the public health emergency fell short of the demands of the ethical rules of the medical profession and the obligation to ensure that the rights of the patients are respected.


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