scholarly journals Potential range shifts and climatic refugia of rupicolous reptiles in a biodiversity hotspot of South Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 264-273
Author(s):  
Melissa Anne Petford ◽  
Graham John Alexander
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Ecological Niche Models ◽  
Reptile Species ◽  
Limited Dispersal ◽  
High Conservation

SummaryClimate change is causing the geographical ranges of some species to track suitable conditions. Habitat specialists, range-restricted species and species with limited dispersal abilities may be unable to track changing conditions, increasing their extinction risk. In response to changing conditions and species movement patterns, there is a need to account for the effects of climate change when designing protected areas and identifying potential climate refugia. We used ecological niche models projected into future climates to identify potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of 11 rupicolous reptile species in the Soutpansberg Mountains, South Africa. Lygodactylus incognitus, Lygodactylus soutpansbergensis, Platysaurus relictus and Vhembelacerta rupicola were identified as being vulnerable to climate change due to substantial reductions in suitable habitat and low spatial overlap between current and future niche envelopes. We identified areas of high conservation importance for the persistence of these species under present-day and projected future conditions. The western Soutpansberg was identified as an area of high conservation priority as it is a potential refuge under future projections. Projecting distributions of vulnerable species into future climate predictions can guide future research and identify potential refugia that will best conserve species with restricted ranges in a world with climate change.

scholarly journals Effects of Climatic Change on the Potential Distribution of Lycoriella Species (Diptera: Sciaridae) of Economic Importance

Insects ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 831
Author(s):  
Roberta Marques ◽  
Juliano Lessa Pinto Duarte ◽  
Adriane da Fonseca Duarte ◽  
Rodrigo Ferreira Krüger ◽  
Uemmerson Silva da Cunha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Range Expansion ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Niche Models ◽  
Greenhouse Production ◽  
Production Areas

Lycoriella species (Sciaridae) are responsible for significant economic losses in greenhouse production (e.g., mushrooms, strawberries, and nurseries). The current distributions of species in the genus are restricted to cold-climate countries. Three species of Lycoriella are of particular economic concern in view of their ability to invade areas in countries across the Northern Hemisphere. We used ecological niche models to determine the potential for range expansion under future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in the distribution of these three species of Lycoriella. Stable environmental suitability under climate change was a dominant theme in these species; however, potential range increases were noted in key countries (e.g., USA, Brazil, and China). Our results illustrate the potential for range expansion in these species in the Southern Hemisphere, including some of the highest greenhouse production areas in the world.

scholarly journals Current and future suitable habitat areas for Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) in Colombia and Ecuador and analysis of its distribution across different land uses

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno ◽  
Patricia Gutiérrez-Salazar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Wildlife Conservation ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Niche Models

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.

scholarly journals Overfishing and Climate Change Elevate Extinction Risk of Endemic Sharks and Rays in the Southwest Indian Ocean Hotspot

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Riley Pollom ◽  
Jessica Cheok ◽  
Nathan Pacoureau ◽  
Katie S. Gledhill ◽  
Peter M. Kyne ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Critically Endangered ◽  
Southwest Indian Ocean ◽  
Bycatch Reduction ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Data Deficient ◽  
Distributional Shifts

Abstract The southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) is a hotspot of endemic and evolutionarily distinct sharks and rays. We summarise the extinction risk of the sharks and rays endemic to coastal, shelf, and slope waters of the SWIO (Namibia to Kenya, including SWIO islands). Thirteen of 70 species (19%) are threatened: one is Critically Endangered, five are Endangered, and seven are Vulnerable. A further seven (10%) are Near Threatened, 33 (47.1%) are Least Concern, and 17 (24.2%) are Data Deficient. While the primary threat is overfishing, there are the first signs that climate change is contributing to elevated extinction risk through habitat reduction and inshore distributional shifts. By backcasting their status, few species were threatened in 1980, but this changed soon after the emergence of targeted shark and ray fisheries. South Africa has the highest national conservation responsibility, followed by Mozambique and Madagascar. Yet, while fisheries management and enforcement have improved in South Africa over recent decades, drastic improvements are urgently needed elsewhere. To avoid extinction and ensure robust populations and future food security, there is an urgent need for the strict protection of Critically Endangered and Endangered species and sustainable management of all species, underpinned by species-level data collection and bycatch reduction.

scholarly journals Bioclimatic Modelling Identifies Suitable Habitat for the Establishment of the Invasive European Paper Wasp (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) across the Southern Hemisphere

Insects ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 784
Author(s):  
Matthew W. F. Howse ◽  
John Haywood ◽  
Philip J. Lester
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
South America ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Range Expansion ◽  
Paper Wasp ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Distribution Models

Species distribution models (SDMs) are tools used by ecologists to help predict the spread of invasive species. Information provided by these models can help direct conservation and biosecurity efforts by highlighting areas likely to contain species of interest. In this study, two models were created to investigate the potential range expansion of Polistes dominula Christ (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) in the southern hemisphere. This palearctic species has spread to invade North and South America, South Africa, Australia, and more recently New Zealand. Using the BIOCLIM and MAXENT modelling methods, regions that were suitable for P. dominula were identified based on climate data across four regions in the southern hemisphere. In South America areas of central Chile, eastern Argentina, parts of Uruguay, and southern Brazil were identified as climatically suitable for the establishment of P. dominula. Similarly, southern parts of South Africa and Australia were identified by the model to be suitable as well as much of the North Island and east of the South Island of New Zealand. Based on outputs from both models, significant range expansion by P. dominula is possible across its more southern invaded ranges.

scholarly journals Thermal niches of planktonic foraminifera are static throughout glacial–interglacial climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (18) ◽  
pp. e2017105118
Author(s):  
Gwen S. Antell ◽  
Isabel S. Fenton ◽  
Paul J. Valdes ◽  
Erin E. Saupe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Planktonic Foraminifera ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Evolutionary Relatedness

Abiotic niche lability reduces extinction risk by allowing species to adapt to changing environmental conditions in situ. In contrast, species with static niches must keep pace with the velocity of climate change as they track suitable habitat. The rate and frequency of niche lability have been studied on human timescales (months to decades) and geological timescales (millions of years), but lability on intermediate timescales (millennia) remains largely uninvestigated. Here, we quantified abiotic niche lability at 8-ka resolution across the last 700 ka of glacial–interglacial climate fluctuations, using the exceptionally well-known fossil record of planktonic foraminifera coupled with Atmosphere–Ocean Global Climate Model reconstructions of paleoclimate. We tracked foraminiferal niches through time along the univariate axis of mean annual temperature, measured both at the sea surface and at species’ depth habitats. Species’ temperature preferences were uncoupled from the global temperature regime, undermining a hypothesis of local adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, intraspecific niches were equally similar through time, regardless of climate change magnitude on short timescales (8 ka) and across contrasts of glacial and interglacial extremes. Evolutionary trait models fitted to time series of occupied temperature values supported widespread niche stasis above randomly wandering or directional change. Ecotype explained little variation in species-level differences in niche lability after accounting for evolutionary relatedness. Together, these results suggest that warming and ocean acidification over the next hundreds to thousands of years could redistribute and reduce populations of foraminifera and other calcifying plankton, which are primary components of marine food webs and biogeochemical cycles.

scholarly journals A Review of the Effects of Climate Change on Chelonians

Diversity ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher J. Butler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Careful Consideration ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Proactive Management ◽  
Limited Dispersal ◽  
Management Recommendations

Climate change is occurring at an unprecedented rate and has begun to modify the distribution and phenology of organisms worldwide. Chelonians are expected to be particularly vulnerable due to limited dispersal capabilities as well as widespread temperature-dependent sex determination. The number of papers published about the effects of climate change on turtles has increased exponentially over the last decade; here, I review the data from peer-reviewed publications to assess the likely impacts of climate change on individuals, populations, and communities. Based upon these studies future research should focus on: (1) Individual responses to climate change, particularly with respect to thermal biology, phenology, and microhabitat selection; (2) improving species distribution models by incorporating fine-scale environmental variables as well as physiological processes; (3) identifying the consequences of skewed sex ratios; and (4) assessments of community resilience and the development of methods to mitigate climate change impacts. Although detailed management recommendations are not possible at this point, careful consideration should be given regarding how to manage low vagility species as habitats shift poleward. In the worst-case scenario, proactive management may be required in order to ensure that widespread losses do not occur.

scholarly journals Demogenetic simulations reveal fragmenting effects of climate change on insular lizard populations

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen E. Rice ◽  
Rulon W. Clark
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Population Genetic ◽  
Life Histories ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Island Population ◽  
Santa Barbara ◽  
Population Demographic

ABSTRACTThe extinction risk of insular species with sessile life histories is expected to increase as they may be unable to track habitat in response to global climate change. Demogenetic simulations can couple population demography and niche modeling to produce spatially-explicit genetic and demographic information for all simulated individuals and provide insight into the effects of climate change at demographic and population genetic levels. We used CDMETAPOP to simulate a population of island night lizards (Xantusia riversiana) on Santa Barbara Island to evaluate its sensitivity to climate change to the year 2100 across 8 scenarios based on 2 climate models, 2 emissions pathways, and 2 connectivity models. We found that 1) X. riversiana is sensitive to climate change with SDMs predicting a loss of suitable habitat of 93%-98% by 2038, 2) population genetic structure is expected to increase drastically to 0.209-0.673 from approximately 0.0346, and 3) estimated minimum abundance is expected to declined sharply over the 2007 to 2038 period and reached values of 0-1% of the 2007 population size in all scenarios by 2100. Climate change is expected to decrease census population size and result in extant habitat patches that are isolated from one another with very high levels of genetic divergence over short periods of time. These patterns may drive the Santa Barbara Island population to extinction under certain scenarios. Management plans should address methods to improve connectivity on the island and attempt to create refugial patches. Contingency plans, such as translocation, may be required to prevent population extirpation. This study highlights the utility of demogenetic simulations in evaluating population demographic and genetic patterns under climate change with suggestions on workflows for running simulations in a high-throughput manner.

scholarly journals Climatic niche shift and possible future spread of the invasive South African Orchid Disa bracteata in Australia and adjacent areas

PeerJ ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. e6107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamil Konowalik ◽  
Marta Kolanowska
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Ecological Niche Modeling ◽  
South Australia ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Niche Shift ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Significant Difference

Orchids are generally regarded as plants with an insignificant invasive potential and so far only one species has proved to be harmful for native flora. However, previous studies on Epipactis helleborine and Arundina graminifolia indicate that the ecological aspects of range extension in their non-native geographical range are not the same for all species of orchids. Disa bracteata in its native range, South Africa, is categorized as of little concern in terms of conservation whereas in Australia it is naturalized and considered to be an environmental weed. The aim of this research was to determine the ecological preferences enabling the spread of Disa bracteata in Western and South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania and to evaluate the effect of future climate change on its potential range. The ecological niche modeling approach indicates that most of the accessible areas are already occupied by this species but future expansion will continue based on four climate change scenarios (rcp26, rcp45, rcp60, rcp85). Further expansion is predicted especially in eastern Australia and eastern Tasmania. Moreover, there are some unpopulated but suitable habitats in New Zealand, which according to climate change scenarios will become even more suitable in the future. The most striking result of this study is the significant difference between the environmental conditions recorded in the areas which D. bracteata naturally inhabits and invasive sites—that indicates a possible niche shift. In Australia the studied species continues to populate a new niche or exploit habitats that are only moderately represented in South Africa.

scholarly journals Effects of climatic change on the potential distribution of Lycoriella species (Diptera: Sciaridae) of economic importance

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberta Marques ◽  
Juliano Lessa Duarte ◽  
Adriane da Fonseca ◽  
Rodrigo F Krüger ◽  
Uemmerson Silva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Range Expansion ◽  
Economic Importance ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Ecological Niche Models ◽  
Greenhouse Production ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Production Areas

Lycoriella species (Sciaridae) are responsible for significant economic losses in greenhouse production (e.g. mushrooms, strawberry, and nurseries). Current distributions of species in the genus are restricted to cold-climate countries. Three species of Lycoriella are of particular economic concern in view of their ability to invade across the Northern Hemisphere. We used ecological niche models to determine the potential for range expansion under climate change future scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in distributions of these species of Lycoriella. Stable suitability under climate change was a dominant theme in these species; however, potential range increases were noted for key countries (e.g. USA, Brazil, and China). Our results illustrate the potential for range expansion in these species in the Southern Hemisphere, including some of the highest greenhouse production areas in the world.

scholarly journals Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential habitat of an endangered Brazilian endemic coral: discussion about deep sea refugia

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Umberto Diego Rodrigues de Oliveira ◽  
Gislaine Vanessa de Lima ◽  
Paula Braga Gomes ◽  
Ralf Tarciso Silva Cordeiro ◽  
Carlos Daniel Pérez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Deep Sea ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Marine Conservation ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Ecological Niche Models ◽  
Potential Habitat ◽  
Niche Models ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractClimate and environmental changes are determinant for coral distribution and their very existence. Effects of such changes on distribution can be predicted through ecological niche models, anticipating suitable habitats for subsistence of species. Mussismilia harttii is one of the most widespread Brazilian endemic reef building corals, and in increasing risk of extinction. The ecological niche models were used through the maximal entropy approach to determine the potential present and future habitats for M. harttii, estimating suitable habitat losses and gains at the end of the 21st century. For this purpose, records published in the last 20 years and current and future environmental variables were correlated. The models were evaluated through the Area Under the Operational Curve of the Receiver, using the AUC values and additionally AUCratio, a new approach using independent occurrence data. Both approaches showed that the models performed satisfactorily in predicting areas of potential habitat for the species. The results showed that the area to the south of the São Francisco River is the most suitable for the current habitat of the species, and that nitrate was the most influential variable for the models. Simultaneously, the salinity and temperature exerted greater influence for the models in future scenarios, in which current northernmost and southernmost limits of the potential habitats shifted towards deeper regions, so these deeper sites may serve as a refugia for the species in global warming scenarios. Coral communities at such depths would be less susceptible to the impacts of climate change on temperature and salinity. However, deep sea is not free from human impacts and measures to protect deeper ecosystems should be prioritized in environmental policy for Brazilian marine conservation.

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