scholarly journals Calculation of LTC Premiums Based on Direct Estimates of Transition Probabilities

2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 455-469 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Helms ◽  
Claudia Czado ◽  
Susanne Gschlößl

In this paper we model the life-history of LTC-patients using a Markovian multi-state model in order to calculate premiums for a given LTC-plan. Instead of estimating the transition intensities in this model we use the approach suggested by Andersen et al. (2003) for a direct estimation of the transition probabilities. Based on the Aalen-Johansen estimator, an almost unbiased estimator for the transition matrix of a Markovian multi-state model, we calculate so-called pseudo-values, known from Jackknife methods. Further, we assume that the relationship between these pseudo-values and the covariates of our data are given by a GLM with the logit as link-function. Since the GLMs do not allow for correlation between successive observations we use instead the “Generalized Estimating Equations” (GEEs) to estimate the parameters of our regression model. The approach is illustrated using a representative sample from a German LTC portfolio.

2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (02) ◽  
pp. 455-469 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Helms ◽  
Claudia Czado ◽  
Susanne Gschlößl

In this paper we model the life-history of LTC-patients using a Markovian multi-state model in order to calculate premiums for a given LTC-plan. Instead of estimating the transition intensities in this model we use the approach suggested by Andersen et al. (2003) for a direct estimation of the transition probabilities. Based on the Aalen-Johansen estimator, an almost unbiased estimator for the transition matrix of a Markovian multi-state model, we calculate so-called pseudo-values, known from Jackknife methods. Further, we assume that the relationship between these pseudo-values and the covariates of our data are given by a GLM with the logit as link-function. Since the GLMs do not allow for correlation between successive observations we use instead the “Generalized Estimating Equations” (GEEs) to estimate the parameters of our regression model. The approach is illustrated using a representative sample from a German LTC portfolio.


2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 398-413
Author(s):  
Alexey Nicolaeyvich Varlamov

The article examines in detail the history of the relationship between A.P. Suslova and V.V. Rozanov in connection with the notion existing in the historical and literary science that Rozanovs marriage to Suslova was based on his deep interest in the work of F.M. Dostoevsky and his desire in such an unusual way to penetrate deeper into the secrets of the life and work of the author of The Idiot and The Brothers Karamazov. However, an appeal to various documentary evidence shows that Rozanovs marriage motives came from the warehouse of his nature and constituted a complex of rather complex reasons, among which the human, and not literary, research principle still dominates. The desire for a benevolently objective study of the life history of A.P. Suslova makes it possible to clarify at the modern scientific level the important facts of the biography of F.M. Dostoevsky and V.V. Rozanov, to free them from the stratifications of legends and myths.


PANALUNGTIK ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Laila Abdul Jalil ◽  
Nuralam

Hamzah Fansuri lived in the early era of the peak of the Aceh Darussalam kingdom. The Kingdom of Aceh Darussalam at that time visited by many traders from Arab, Parsi, Turkish, Bengal (India), Siamese, Portuguese, and Spain. Hamzah Fansuri is a Sufism scholar who developed Islamic teaching trough his poems. One of his poems is Syair Perahu. Syair Perahu besides containing Sufism also is related to the trade and wealth of Singkel sea. The discovery of foreign ceramics along the Singkel river is one proof of trade in the past. This research use method of manuscript study. The reason for choosing text studies is because Hamzah Fansuri produced many literary works in the form of poetry. The approach used in this study is historical archaeology to reveal the maritime culture of Singkel trough Syair Perahu by Hamzah Fansuri. Data collection is done trough literature study by collecting books, documents, and paper relating to the life history of Hamzah Fansuri and and literary works that he produces. The purpose of this reseach is to determine the relationship between Syair Perahu and maritime culture of Singkel. Based on a study of Syair Perahu, it is known that Hamzah Fansuri not only discusses the Sufism but also provides information about Singkel and trade in its time.


2019 ◽  
Vol 241 ◽  
pp. 107560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Romain M. Gloaguen ◽  
Annie Couch ◽  
Diane L. Rowland ◽  
Jerry Bennett ◽  
George Hochmuth ◽  
...  

2007 ◽  
Vol 85 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. de Boef ◽  
H.C.E. Larsson

Bone microstructure often preserves a temporal record of the life history of the animal to which it belongs. Previously used bone microstructure metrics to differentiate between primary bone types are reviewed and tested with a broad sample of bone types. Two new metrics, the radial index and the longitudinal index, are developed to quantitatively differentiate bone types based on bone vascular orientation in three dimensions. All previously used metrics described the bone microstructure in a nonlinear pattern and were unable to separate bone types satisfactorily. The radial index and longitudinal index effectively differentiated bone types and described bone microstructure within a linear continuum. The continuous nature of the range of vascular orientation in bone microstructure necessitates a quantitative approach rather than the commonly used qualitative classifications. The radial index and longitudinal index, which objectively detect small differences in vascular orientation in three dimensions, are therefore preferable to other metrics for inter- and intra-specific comparisons of bone microstructure. These metrics offer novel methods to facilitate examinations of the relationship between primary bone type and ontogeny, biomechanics, and phylogeny.


Parasitology ◽  
1965 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 427-437 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. R. Kennedy

The development of Archigetes limnodrili in species of Limnodrilus is described. There is no free-living larva and eggs are ingested by the tubificids. Growth and development is completed within the body cavity of the annelid, and egg liberation is accomplished by release of the parasite and decay of its body.Breeding of A. limnodrili takes place throughout the year. In the localities investigated there was no evidence that a fish host was required in the life-cycle. Progenesis was the only type of development encountered in Britain.A. limnodrili exhibits an unusual degree of host specificity, being found only in species of Limnodrilus. It is suggested that this is due to differences in the composition of the coelom or intestine of Limnodrilus compared to other genera.The degree of infection in all localities is very low, and shows no regular seasonal variation. There is no similarity in the seasonal changes in different localities.The relationship between the host and parasite is a stable one, and there is little mutual damage. Factors contributing to this stability are discussed.The development of A. limnodrili is compared with that of other species of Archigetes, and the life-history discussed with particular reference to the phenomenon of progenesis.I wish to thank Professor R. J. Pumphrey in whose Department this work was carried out, and Dr J. C. Chubb for his constant advice and criticism. I also wish to thank Dr K. H. Mann and the University of Reading for provision of specimens and permitting me the use of their facilities. The work was carried out during the tenure of a Nature Conservancy Research Studentship.


1986 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 135-141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elie Moussalli ◽  
Ray Hilborn

If the life history of a population consists of a sequence of density-dependent stages linked by density-independent survival rates, and if the density-dependent stages take the form of the Beverton–Holt stock and recruitment curve, then a single Beverton–Holt curve will describe the entire life history. The relationship between the parameters of any stage in the life history and the optimal harvest rate and optimal stock size is analyzed. Increasing survival rates will always increase the optimal harvest rate, but may increase or decrease the optimal stock size. Increasing the habitat capacity will increase the optimal stock size and leave the optimal harvest rate unaffected. An example of changing freshwater survival rates by Salmonid Enhancement is shown, as is an example of changing ocean survival rate. As we acquire a better understanding of the determinants of survival and habitat capacity, we should adjust harvest rates and stock size as the environment changes.


2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 455
Author(s):  
Munawar Aziz

The discourse on Islam Nusantara is a strategic study inside of relation Islam and politic in the international level. The problem of Arabic Country among Islam and politic is an example on this study. This is a challenge to reformulate the style of Islam which is responsive on democracy and civilizations. Islam in Indonesia (or Islam Nusantara) reflecting the concept of dialogue between Islam, politics and cultural values. This is what makes Islam Nusantara teach the values of peace and humanity. From this study, the book 'Arsyul Muwahiddin noted by Sheikh Ahmad Mutamakkin (1645-1740) on the bridge between the Islamic concept of sharia, Sufism and cultural values. The history of Syekh Ahmad Mutamakkin, in the relation with Javanese Empire, spread the views of relations among ulama, power and cultural ideas. This research, focused on several key questions: (1) how values contained in the book Sufism ‘Arsyul Muwahiddin? (2) How the Islamic identity of the archipelago, which is excerpted from the book and thehistory of ‘Arsyul Muwahiddin by Sheikh Ahmad Mutamakkin? The key questions that this research underlines the Islamic identity of the country, about the relationship between Islam, Sufism and local values to promote the concept of civilization in this country. Sheikh Ahmad Mutamakkin’s life history and values contained in the book ‘Arsyul Muwahiddin is a reflectionto map the face of Islam Nusantara. Thus, an alternative view to contribute on Islamic model in the international sphere.


1959 ◽  
Vol 91 (10) ◽  
pp. 633-638 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Lafrance ◽  
J. P. Perron

This is a report on field observations and experiments on the life-history of the onion maggot, Hylemya antiqua (Meig.), conducted from 1955 to 1958 in sandy and organic soils of southwestern Quebec. The dates of emergence of adults, the number of generations, the percentage of pupae entering diapause in each generation, and the relationship between diapause, air temperature, and precipitation were recorded.


Author(s):  
Natalia Popovich

Helena is the main character of this play and she is the author’s porte parole.This character develops stereotype of „a proud Polish woman” and continues the19th century plot in Russian literature (the relationship of a strong woman and a weakman). The main character’s features are: sacrifice, ability to love and forgive, will to fight for personal matters. In Warsaw melody we can see that love and social themes are bound together — the conflict is not between person, but a man and the country. A Polish woman is a symbol of higher culture, she wants to overcome fear of what happens tomorrow, that is induced by her WWII life history, and gains life experience due to herpossibility to analyze and summarize. In the text we can find the author’s allusionsto the tragic history of Poland during WWII.


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