scholarly journals Assessing the relationship between epidemic growth scaling and epidemic size: The 2014–16 Ebola epidemic in West Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tapiwa Ganyani ◽  
Kimberlyn Roosa ◽  
Christel Faes ◽  
Niel Hens ◽  
Gerardo Chowell
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Growth Parameters ◽  
Growth Parameter ◽  
Epidemic Outbreak ◽  
Epidemic Size ◽  
Scaling Parameters ◽  
Growth Scaling ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractWe assess the relationship between epidemic size and the scaling of epidemic growth of Ebola epidemics at the level of administrative areas during the 2014–16 Ebola epidemic in West Africa. For this purpose, we quantify growth scaling parameters from the ascending phase of Ebola outbreaks comprising at least 7 weeks of epidemic growth. We then study how these parameters are associated with observed epidemic sizes. For validation purposes, we also analyse two historic Ebola outbreaks. We find a high monotonic association between the scaling of epidemic growth parameter and the observed epidemic size. For example, scaling of growth parameters around 0.3–0.4, 0.4–0.6 and 0.6 are associated with epidemic sizes on the order of 350–460, 460–840 and 840–2500 cases, respectively. These results are not explained by differences in epidemic onset across affected areas. We also find the relationship between the scaling of epidemic growth parameter and the observed epidemic size to be consistent for two past Ebola outbreaks in Congo (1976) and Uganda (2000). Signature features of epidemic growth could become useful to assess the risk of observing a major epidemic outbreak, generate improved diseases forecasts and enhance the predictive power of epidemic models. Our results indicate that the epidemic growth scaling parameter is a useful indicator of epidemic size, which may have significant implications to guide control of Ebola outbreaks and possibly other infectious diseases.

scholarly journals Aging and growth parameter from the Piaractus mesopotamicus (pacu) from the Cuiabá river, Mato Grosso, Brazil

2014 ◽  
Vol 104 (4) ◽  
pp. 413-417 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela M. Ambrosio ◽  
Thiago J. Balbi ◽  
Talitha M. Francisco ◽  
Luiz C. Gomes ◽  
Marina S. Zuliani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Growth Parameters ◽  
Growth Parameter ◽  
Age And Growth ◽  
Von Bertalanffy ◽  
Commercial Fishery ◽  
Mato Grosso ◽  
Piaractus Mesopotamicus ◽  
Marginal Increment ◽  
The Relationship

This study has aims to determine the age and to estimate the growth parameters using scales of the species. Individuals of Piaractus mesopotamicus (Holmberg, 1887) used in this study were captured in the commercial fishery conducted in the region, along the year 2006. The model selected to express the growth of the species was the von Bertalanffy Sl= Sl∞*[1-exp-k(t-to)]. To determine if scales are suitable for studying the growth of pacu, we analyzed the relation between standard length (Sl) and the radius of the scales through linear regression. The period of annuli formation was determined analyzing the variations in the marginal increment and evaluating the consistency of the readings through the analysis of the coefficient of variations (CVs) for the average standard lengths of each age (number of rings) observed in the scales. The relationship between Ls of the fish and the radius of the scales showed that scales can be used to study the age and growth of P. mesopotamicus (R= 0.79). CVs were always below 20%, demonstrating the consistency of the readings. Annuli formation occurred in February, probably related to trophic migration that occurs in this month in the region. Equations that represents the growth in length obtained for P. mesopotamicus are Sl=50.00*[1-exp-0.18(t-(-3.00)] for males and Sl=59.23*[1-exp-0.14(t-(-3.36)] for females. The growth parameters obtained in this study were lower compared to other studies previously conducted for the same species and can related to overexploitation that species is submitted by fishing in the region. These values show also that females of pacu attain greater asymptotic length than males that growth faster.

THOUGHTS ON THE WESTERN SAVANNAH AND SAHEL

2020 ◽  
Vol 61 (3) ◽  
pp. 319-326
Author(s):  
Michael A. Gomez
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Race And Gender ◽  
Spatial Frame ◽  
And Gender ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractA recent revival of interest in the empires of the medieval western Savannah and Sahel has generated new insights into slavery, ethnicity, race, and gender in precolonial West Africa. New histories of medieval West Africa also expand the spatial frame through which the relationship between the region's polities and the broader world can be understood. This essay offers a survey of that literature.

scholarly journals Trust Mediating Reliability–Reliance Relationship in Supervisory Control of Human–Swarm Interactions

2019 ◽  
Vol 62 (8) ◽  
pp. 1237-1248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aya Hussein ◽  
Sondoss Elsawah ◽  
Hussein A. Abbass
Keyword(s):  
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles ◽  
Mediation Analysis ◽  
Supervisory Control ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Behavioral Responses ◽  
Mediating Role ◽  
Aerial Vehicles ◽  
Trust In Automation ◽  
The Relationship

Objective This work aims to further test the theory that trust mediates the interdependency between automation reliability and the rate of human reliance on automation. Background Human trust in automation has been the focus of many research studies. Theoretically, trust has been proposed to impact human reliance on automation by mediating the relationship between automation reliability and the rate of human reliance. Experimentally, however, the results are contradicting as some confirm the mediating role of trust, whereas others deny it. Hence, it is important to experimentally reinvestigate this role of trust and understand how the results should be interpreted in the light of existing theory. Method Thirty-two subjects supervised a swarm of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in foraging missions in which the swarm provided recommendations on whether or not to collect potential targets, based on the information sensed by the UAVs. By manipulating the reliability of the recommendations, we observed changes in participants’ trust and their behavioral responses. Results A within-subject mediation analysis revealed a significant mediation role of trust in the relationship between swarm reliability and reliance rate. High swarm reliability increased the rate of correct acceptances, but decreased the rate of correct rejections. No significant effect of reliability was found on response time. Conclusion Trust is not a mere by-product of the interaction; it possesses a predictive power to estimate the level of reliance on automation. Application The mediation role of trust confirms the significance of trust calibration in determining the appropriate level of reliance on swarm automation.

scholarly journals THE RELATIONSHIP OF VITAMIN A SUPPLEMENTATION, GIVING IMMUNIZATION, AND HISTORY OF INFECTION DISEASE WITH THE STUNTING OF CHILDREN AGED 24-59 MONTHS IN PUSKESMAS MULYOREJO, SURABAYA

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 72
Author(s):  
Melvanda Gisela Putri ◽  
Roedi Irawan ◽  
Indri Safitri Mukono
Keyword(s):  
Vitamin A ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Vitamin A Supplementation ◽  
Chi Square Test ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Relationship

ABSTRAKLatar Belakang: Stunting merupakan suatu istilah yang menggambarkan kondisi pertumbuhan tinggi badan kurang berdasarkan umur disesuaikan dengan Z-Score (<-2SD). Stunting pada balita dapat diakibatkan oleh kurangnya asupan zat gizi yang diperlukan bagi pertumbuhan anak. Penelitian dilakukan untuk mengetahui hubungan suplementasi vitamin A, pemberian imunisasi dan riwayat penyakit infeksi yakni diare dan ISPA terhadap kejadian stunting.Tujuan: Mengetahui hubungan suplementasi vitamin A, pemberian imunisasi, dan penyakit infeksi terhadap stunting pada anak usia 24-59 bulan di Puskesmas Mulyorejo, Surabaya.Metode: Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian analitik observasional dengan metode cross sectional. Besar sampel adalah 107 anak usia 24-59 bulan di Puskesmas Mulyorejo, Surabaya. terdiri dari 25 anak kelompok stunting dan 82 anak kelompok non- stunting. Cara pengambilan data melalui data sekunder posyandu dan wawancara langsung orang tua anak dengan pengisian kuisioner. Data dianalisis menggunakan uji Chi-Square, Fisher Exact, dan Mann Whitney.Hasil: Penelitian ini menunjukkan hasil terdapat hubungan suplementasi vitamin A dengan stunting (p=0,000), tidak ada hubungan antara pemberian imunisasi terhadap stunting (p=0,332). Dalam riwayat penyakit infeksi, frekuensi diare dan ISPA ditemukan tidak ada hubungan dengan  stunting (p=0,053 dan p=0,082), begitu pula pada lama diare dan lama ISPA tidak berhubungan dengan stunting (p= 0,614 dan p=0,918).Kesimpulan: Suplementasi vitamin A berhubungan signifikan dengan stunting yang diamati pada anak usia 24-59 bulan di Puskesmas Mulyorejo, Surabaya. Kata kunci: kejadian stunting, vitamin A, imunisasi, penyakit infeksi, anak usia 24-59 bulanABSTRACTBackground: Stunting is a term that describes condition of lower height-for-age Z-Score (<-2SD). Stunting among children can be caused by a lack of nutrients needed for children's growth. This study was conducted to determine the relationship between vitamin A supplementation, immunization and a history of infectious diseases, namely diarrhea and ARI to the incidence of stunting.Objectives: To determine the relationship between vitamin A supplementation, immunization, and history of infectious disease with the incidence of stunting in children aged 24-59 months at Puskesmas Mulyorejo, Surabaya.Methods: This study was an observational analytic study with cross sectional method. The sample size was 107 children aged 24-59 months at Puskesmas Mulyorejo, Surabaya. This study consisted of 25 children in the stunting group and 82 children in the non-stunting group. The method of data collection was through secondary data from posyandu and direct interviews with parents by filling out questionnaires. Data were analyzed using the chi-square test, fisher exact, and Mann Whitney.Results: The results of this study indicated that there was a relationship between vitamin A supplementation and with stunting (p = 0.000). There was no relationship between immunization and stunting (p = 0.332). In the history of infectious diseases, the frequency of diarrhea and ARI was found to have no relationship with stunting (p = 0.053 and p = 0.082), as well as the duration of diarrhea and duration of ARI there was no association with the stunting (p = 0.614 and p = 0.918).Conclusion: Vitamin A supplementation has significant relationship with stunting in children aged 24-59 months at Puskesmas Mulyorejo, Surabaya.

scholarly journals Is It All a Conspiracy? Conspiracy Theories and People’s Attitude to COVID-19 Vaccination

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1051 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zheng Yang ◽  
Xi Luo ◽  
Hepeng Jia
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Health Behaviors ◽  
Large Body ◽  
Pharmaceutical Companies ◽  
Conspiracy Theories ◽  
Conspiracy Beliefs ◽  
Quota Sampling ◽  
To Receive ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Vaccination Hesitancy

A large body of research has found that people’s beliefs in conspiracy theories about infectious diseases negatively impacts their health behaviors concerning vaccination. Conspiracy belief-based vaccination hesitancy has become more rampant after the global outbreak of COVID-19. However, some important questions remain unanswered. For instance, do different versions of conspiracy theories—particularly conspiracy theories about the origin of the epidemic (e.g., that the SARS-CoV-2 leaked from a Wuhan virology laboratory or that the virus was of foreign origin) and the general theories about vaccine conspiracies (e.g., pharmaceutical companies covered up the danger of vaccines or people are being deceived about the effectiveness of vaccines)—have the same effect on vaccination intentions? Through a national survey adopting quota sampling in China, the current study tested the relationship between people’s conspiracy beliefs and their intention to receive the COVID-19 vaccination. The findings show that people’s embrace of conspiracy theories did indeed affect their intention to take COVID-19 shots. However, only conspiracy theories related to vaccines had a significant impact, while belief in more general theories about COVID-19 did not significantly affect vaccination intentions. People’s knowledge of vaccines (vaccine literacy) played an important role in this relationship. People with lower beliefs in vaccines conspiracy theories and higher levels of vaccine literacy were more likely to receive the COVID-19 vaccination.

scholarly journals Relative Deprivation, Identity Politics and the Neo-Biafran Movement in Nigeria: Critical Issues of Nation-Building in a Postcolonial African State

2016 ◽  
Vol 66 ◽  
pp. 73-80
Author(s):  
Remi Chukwudi Okeke
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Identity Politics ◽  
Relative Deprivation ◽  
African State ◽  
Nation Building ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Postcolonial State ◽  
Critical Issues ◽  
The Relationship

This study examines the linkages between relative deprivation and identity politics in a postcolonial state. It further investigates the relationship among these variables and nation-building challenges in the postcolony. It is a case study of the Nigerian state in West Africa, which typically harbours the attributes of postcoloniality and indeed, large measures of relative deprivation in her sociopolitical and economic affairs. The study is also an interrogation of the neo-Biafran agitations in Nigeria. It has been attempted in the study to offer distinctive explanations over the problematique of nation-building in the postcolonial African state of Nigeria, using relative deprivation, identity politics and the neo-Biafran movement as variables. In framing the study’s theoretical trajectories and in historicizing the background of the research, ample resort has been made to a significant range of qualitative secondary sources. A particularly salient position of the study is that it will actually be difficult to locate on the planet, any group of people whose subsequent generations (in perpetuity) would wear defeat on the war front, as part of their essential identity. Hence, relative deprivation was found to be more fundamental than identity politics in the neo-Biafran agitations in Nigeria. However, the compelling issues were found to squarely border on nation-building complications in the postcolony.

scholarly journals Predictor Variables of Childbearing Motivations in Brazilian Women and Men

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giuliana Violeta Vasquez Varas ◽  
Juliane Callegaro Borsa
Keyword(s):  
Family Of Origin ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Predictor Variables ◽  
Partner Relationship ◽  
Difference Analysis ◽  
Multiple Regressions ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract This study aimed to analyze the relationships between positive (PCM), negative (NCM) childbearing motivations and psychological, sociodemographic, family of origin and partner relationship variables in a sample of 1969 Brazilians (83.6% female), aged 18 to 50 years (M = 29.27; SD = 5.97). Spearman correlations, Mann-Whitney and Kruskal Wallis U-tests, and multiple regressions were performed. The results of the correlations and multiple regressions verified the relationship between both motivations and the various variables postulated. It was also verified that religiosity was the variable with greater predictive power for PCM and having or not having children was the variable with greater predictive power for NCM. In the group difference analysis, significant differences were found for PCM according to occupation, type of relationship, and presence/absence of a partner. As for the NCM, significant differences were found according to sex.

scholarly journals Empirical examination of decision making core technology adoption theory to explain youth preferences for HIV preventive actions

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Njabulo Samson Melusi Shongwe
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Information System ◽  
Technology Adoption ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Core Model ◽  
Adoption Theory ◽  
Preventive Actions ◽  
Core Technology ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Action Intention

This study reports on the application of decision making core technology adoption theory to empirically examine youth preferences for Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) preventive actions. In order to contribute to the open discourse on whether technology adoption rate is higher for male or female, goal desire, goal intention, action desire and action intention elements of decision making core theory were tested. A mobile health information system was implemented as an HIV information disseminating tool and used for experimentation to determine adoption by youths. A dataset of 118 pupils from two high schools was used for pilot investigation. A dataset of 292 undergraduate youths aged 10-24 years from two universities in South Africa was generated to validate the research model. The Partial Least Square (PLS) analytic modelling technique was used to determine the predictive power of decision making core model from the input dataset. Results of experimentation show that regardless of the gender youth accepts to use mobile information system to access HIV information. The predictive power of the decision making core model was found to be independent of gender factor, which was also not found to moderate the relationship between Perceived Behavioural Control (PBC) and action intention. In addition, gender was not found to moderate the order of importance in factors that predict youth preferences for HIV preventive action. PBC, action desire and goal desire were selected as the most important predictors of HIV preventive actions. The factor of action desire was found to mediate the relationship between PBC and action intention such that the mediation effect was stronger for male youth (68%) than for female youth (19%). Finally, the decision making core model better predicted youth preferences for HIV preventive actions as compared to two models based on Theory of Reason Action (TRA) and Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB)

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