Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election with the Fiscal Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 45 (04) ◽  
pp. 648-650 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfred G. Cuzán
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
President Obama ◽  
The Public ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Recent Estimate ◽  
One Year

In March 2009, at a time when President Obama was basking in the glow of the honeymoon with the public every new president enjoys, I asked, “Will Barack Obama be a one-term president?” What prompted me to pose so impertinent a question at so hopeful a time was that the Office of Management and Budget was projecting that that year the federal government would spend 28% of gross domestic product (GDP). This amounted to a 7% point increase compared to the previous year, the largest peacetime one-year jump since 1930. The most recent estimate for 2012 is that federal outlays will take up 24.3% of GDP, up 3.5% points since 2008. This is the second-largest peacetime increase from one election year to the next since 1880, edged out only by Franklin D. Roosevelt's first-term surge of 3.6% points.

ICT and Unemployment in Nigeria

2012 ◽  
pp. 51-59
Author(s):  
N.D. Oye ◽  
Inuwa Ibrahim ◽  
Muhammad Shakil Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Coming Out ◽  
Inverse Relationship ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Sector Reforms ◽  
Community Centre

A number of telecentres have been established in places like shops, schools, community centre, police stations and clinics. The population of Nigeria, according to the national population commission (NPC) figures stands at over 140, 000,000, and 60% of this number is made up of unemployed youths. With the institutions of learning in Nigeria churning out graduates of various levels and degrees on a yearly basis, a rising trend has seen these graduates coming out of the nation’s universities and polytechnics to join those who graduated ahead of them but without any means of livelihood for years. This chapter examines the role played by unemployment on the making of the Nigerian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for a period of nine years (2000 - 2008). The objectives of the study are to examine the effects of unemployment on the Nigerian GDP for the selected years, to observe the kind of association that existing between the unemployment and the makings of the Nigerian GDP. Data was collected and analyzed using the regression analysis. Findings showed that unemployment has an enormous effect (over 65%) on the making of the Nigerian GDP, and there exists an inverse relationship between the model (unemployment) and the GDP - increase in the model leads to decrease on the GDP and vice versa. The role of ICT on unemployment and GDP is reviewed. In addition ICT as a tool of combating unemployment corruption is discussed. Recommendations are proffered based on the study that unemployment can be combated through the public sector reforms and the use of ICT.

scholarly journals EFECTOS DEL GASTO PÚBLICO EN EL PIB EN LOS ESTADOS DE MÉXICO, 1999-2014

2018 ◽  
Vol 77 (305) ◽  
pp. 74
Author(s):  
Miguel Ángel Díaz Carreño ◽  
Pablo Mejía Reyes ◽  
Marlen R. Reyes Hernández ◽  
Ana Desiderio de la Cruz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
The Public ◽  
Sobre Todo

<p align="center"><strong>RESUMEN</strong></p><div>El objetivo de esta investigación es analizar el efecto del gasto público en el producto interno bruto (PIB) a nivel estatal en México. El periodo de estudio abarca de 1999 a 2014 y empleamos un modelo  de regresión cuantílica para explicar dichos efectos. Encontramos que el gasto público total ha sido relevante en la explicación del crecimiento económico estatal, sobre todo en aquellos estados más grandes del país. En estos casos el coeficiente resultó positivo y significativo. Por otra parte, el gasto público realizado en infraestructura resultó no significativo en la explicación del pib tanto en el caso de los estados grandes como en los pequeños.</div><div> </div><div><p align="center">EFFECTS OF PUBLIC SPENDING ON THE GDP IN THE STATES OF MEXICO, 1999-2014</p><p align="center"> <strong> </strong><strong>ABSTRACT</strong></p></div><p>The objective of this paper is to analyze the effects of public expenditure on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over the period 1999-2014 for the Mexican states. By using a quantile regression, it is found that total public expenditure has been relevant in the explanation of economic growth, mainly in the case of the largest states with positive and significant effects. On the contrary, the public expenditure associated to infrastructure seems to have not contributed to economic growth of the states of any size.</p><p> </p>

The Twittering Presidents

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Wignell ◽  
Sabine Tan ◽  
Kay L. O’Halloran ◽  
Kevin Chai
Keyword(s):  
Text Analysis ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Social Harmony ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
President Obama ◽  
The Public ◽  
Multimodal Discourse Analysis ◽  
Multimodal Discourse ◽  
Manual Analysis ◽  
Automated Text Analysis

Abstract This paper uses a Systemic Functional Multimodal Discourse Analysis (SF-MDA) approach to analyse tweets from the Twitter accounts of Presidents Barack Obama (@Barack Obama) and Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump). The tweets were posted during the last nine months of President Obama’s effective presidency and the first nine months of President Trump’s presidency. The tweets are analysed using automated text analysis which is interpreted through an SF-MDA lens, supplemented by manual analysis. The analysis examines ideational and interpersonal emphasis in the tweets with the aim of showing how the composition and content construct a view of how each president and his presidency are presented to the public. The findings suggest marked contrasts in presidential style with President Trump foregrounding the interpersonal while President Obama foregrounds the ideational. Where President Trump presents as self-promoting, autocratic, opinionated and igniting discord in his tweets, President Obama presents as democratic, moderate, restrained and seeking social harmony.

scholarly journals Public debt influence to the agriculture sector in Tanzania

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 295-314
Author(s):  
NUHU A. SANSA
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
The Public ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Average Change

Recent literature evidence shows that the Tanzania Public Debt is rapidly growing and the Tanzania Government is using 40% of its domestic revenue to service the public debt at a time when substantially more funding is required for keeping the Tanzania agriculture sector, economic development activities and most important the sustainable development goals attainable. The present study is undertaken to evaluate the influence of the public debt to the agriculture sector in Tanzania.  The study firstly assesses the marginal change of the annual average public debt influence to the agriculture gross domestic product and secondly the study evaluated the correlation between the public debt and the agriculture gross domestic product during the period from 1996 to 2018 in Tanzania. With that regard the study applied the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method to analyze the average annual growth rates of the public debt and the agriculture sector gross domestic product during the period from 1996 to 2018 in Tanzania.Public debt and agriculture sector gross domestic product time series data were collected from the World Bank and the Bank Of Tanzania annual reports during the period from 1996 to 2018 for Tanzania.To assess the marginal annual average change for the public debt and the agriculture sector gross domestic product the annual average growth rate for the sub periods of 1996-2000, 2001-2005, 2006-2010, 2011-2015 and for the presidential term 1996-2005 (Third President Term), 2006-2015 (Fourth Presidential Term), and 2016-2018( Three Years Of The Fifth Presidential Term) were evaluated. While to evaluate the influence of the public debt to the agriculture sector gross domestic product, the correlation between the public debt and the agriculture sector gross domestic product were investigated during the period from 1996 to 2018 in Tanzania. The findings of the study in actual fact catching up the attention. The study findings revealed that the  public debt and the agriculture sector gross domestic product marginal annual average change is positive while the correlation between the public debt and the agriculture sector gross domestic product is negative and insignificant during the period from 1996 to 2018 in Tanzania.

scholarly journals Dynamic Budgetary Consequences of the 1991 NFC Award

1994 ◽  
Vol 33 (4II) ◽  
pp. 627-645
Author(s):  
A. F. Aisha Ghaus ◽  
Hafiz A. Pasha
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
The Current Account

The National Finance Commission (NFC) award of 1991 has been acclaimed to be a historic achievement of the previous elected government. It has come after a gap of many years (due since 1979) and some abortive attempts earlier.! Meanwhile, the provinces had run into large, chronic deficits on the current account, indicating the growing inadequacy of divisible pool transfers as per the provisions of the 1974 award. Consequently, as an ad hoc provision, deficit grants and other subventions had been used increasingly to support the on-going operations of the provinces. At their peak in 1987-88, these grants were Rs 17 billion (see Table 1), equivalent to about 2 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and financed over one-fourths of the provincial current expenditure. Also, the federal government took over the responsibility of provision of some provincial responsibilities as contained in the Concurrent List of the Constitution like SCARPS, flood control, fertiliser subsidy, universities, etc.

scholarly journals Key Assessment Indicators of Infrastructure for the Sustainability of Economic Development: An Empirical Investigation of Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hina Ali ◽  
Nazia Nasir ◽  
Tahira Qasim Bano ◽  
Aiman Javaid
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Fixed Capital ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
The Public ◽  
Fixed Capital Formation

This study addresses the linkage between the gross domestic product and infrastructure in Pakistan. The time frame taken for this study is from 1977-2019. The information utilized in this study is taken from reliable sources; World Bank. ARDL method is utilized in this study with the assistance of E-VIEWS 10 programming. To consider the effect of infrastructure on GDP; the factors are utilized, for example, gross fixed capital formation, health expenditures, total generation age of power, life expectancy, and government expenditure on education. These factors are utilized as the intermediary of the framework. Gross Domestic Product is taken as the dependent variable while net fixed capital arrangement, health consumption, complete age of power, future, and government uses on schooling are taken as autonomous factors in this paper. The consequences of this study show that the gross fixed capital formation, wellbeing consumption, and workforce have a positive connection to GDP. Then again, the total generation of electricity and government expenditures on schooling adversely affect the economy of Pakistan. The infrastructure is one of the principals and fundamental variables for the improvement of the economy of Pakistan. The helpless state of infrastructure in Pakistan is probably the greatest deterrent in the advancement of the country. The public authority should zero in on the upgrading of the approaches in regards to the infrastructure area, for instance; enhancements in the health sector, progression in the energy area, abilities advancement preparing places for the workforce, and upgrades in the schooling area. All the previously mentioned steps can assist with improving economic development through infrastructural improvement.

Barking Up the Wrong Tree: Why Bo Didn't Fetch Many Votes for Barack Obama in 2012

2013 ◽  
Vol 46 (01) ◽  
pp. 49-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew L. Jacobsmeier ◽  
Daniel C. Lewis
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
President Obama ◽  
2008 Presidential Election ◽  
Dog Ownership ◽  
Key Variables ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Attitudes And Behavior ◽  
Levels Of Support

AbstractIn “The Dog that Didn't Bark: The Role of Canines in the 2008 Campaign,” Diana Mutz (2010) argues that dog ownership made voters significantly less likely to vote for Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential election. We examine this claim further. Although President Obama has owned a dog since shortly after his 2008 election, we argue that Bo's presence most likely did little to improve his owner's chances of being reelected in 2012. Rather, the apparent significance of dog ownership uncovered by Mutz is due largely to key variables being omitted from the analysis. Using the same data, we show that Obama didn't so much have trouble with dog owners in 2008 as he had trouble with conservative, rural, Southern whites, who, for reasons we examine, are more likely than other Americans to own dogs. Accordingly, we suspect that Bo failed to boost Obama's vote tally in 2012. While we recognize the tongue-in-jowl tone of portions of Mutz's article, this tale is an important one, and is consistent with recent research linking racial attitudes to levels of support for Barack Obama. We also argue that while scholars are often wise to include control variables such as “South” in studies of political attitudes and behavior, it is important to consider the variety of politically relevant characteristics that such variables may be capturing.

Protection of Juveniles in Germany – A Report on the New Legislation

2003 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 541-557
Author(s):  
Marc Liesching ◽  
Christoph J.M. Safferling
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Computer Games ◽  
The Public ◽  
Federal States ◽  
Legal Documents ◽  
Radio Broadcasting ◽  
German Federal States ◽  
Broadcasting Industry ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Individual

In April, 2002, a 19 year-old pupil ran amok in a high school in Erfurt, killing several teachers and fellow pupils. The young man was reported to have played computer games, in particular games known as “ego-shooter,” quite excessively. These tragic events fueled the plans of the German government and the Federal states to reform the law for the protection of children and young persons. The legislative machinery issued new legislation at a rather impressive pace. Only one year after the tragedy in Erfurt, on 1 April 2003, two major legal documents entered into force: the Jugendschutzgesetz (JuSchG – Juvenile Protection Act) of the Federal government and the Jugendmedienschutz-Staatsvertrag (JMStV – Agreement of the German Federal States regarding the Protection of Human Dignity and Juveniles in Radio and Televised Media). This complicated two-fold structure stems from the federal nature of the German state where the competence to legislate is divided between the Federal Government and the individual Laender (Federal States). The latter, in order to achieve uniformity among themselves and reaching the breadth of the Germany territory, must cooperate and legislate in the form of an interstate agreement. The JuSchG regulates mainly the protection of juveniles in the public and limits the distribution of items, which have been determined to be dangerous, like printed material, videos, DVDs or CD-Roms. In contrast thereto the JMStV pertains to the protection of juveniles in the radio broadcasting industry and in the so called “Telemedia,” in particular the internet. In the following, we will give a short overview of the developments wrought by these new laws.

scholarly journals LONG-TERM MODEL AND MONTE CARLO SIMULATION OF THE PUBLIC HEALTH EXPENDITURE IN BULGARIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 3911-3918
Author(s):  
Nikolay Atanasov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Health Expenditure ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Public Health Expenditure ◽  
The Public ◽  
Term Model

Purpose: The aim of the study is to build a long-term model and conduct a Monte Carlo simulation of the public health expenditure (PHE) of Bulgaria with the gross domestic product (GDP) as an independent variable. Material/Methods: Statistical models are used for modeling the long-term dependence between the macroeconomic dynamic rows, testing of hypotheses of stationarity (Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests), for serial autocorrelation and others. Results: There is a well-defined, statistically significant long-term relationship between public health expenditure and gross domestic product. The long-term model of health expenditure has an estimate of the cointegration constant of 1.023 (p-value < 0.05). Monte Carlo simulations are presented with 1 000, 2 000 and 3 000 experiments, generated based on the normal distribution of the input variable. Conclusions: In the period after the year 1990, a well-defined long-term relationship between public health expenditure and GDP exists. The Monte Carlo simulation can be regarded as a reliable instrument for studying the most likely fluctuations in health expenditure caused by the GDP.

scholarly journals EFFECT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, INFLATION, INTEREST RATE, PROFITABILITY AND CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIO TO NON PERFORMING LOAN ON MIXED BANKS IN 2012-2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Ekayana Nurnaningtyas ◽  
Purwohandoko Purwohandoko
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Institution ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
The Public ◽  
Capital Adequacy Ratio ◽  
Negative Effect

Bank is a financial institution with the purpose of providing loans and services. Credit is the provision of money or product that is equated with money to make an agreement between the bank and the borrower where the borrower is obliged to fulfill its obligations within the period specified by the interest paid first. But in the process of lending to the public, the banks have problems such as credit risk, where the borrower is unable to repay the loan as agreed. So this raises the problem loans or bad credit. This study aims to determine the effect of economic factors, which uses variable Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, and interest rates, as well as the internal bank uses variable profitability by proxy Return on Assets (ROA), and the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR ) against non-performing loans (NPLs). Data used in this study is taken from mixed banks year period 2012-2015. The analytical method used in this study is the linear multiple regression analysis. Variabel interest in this study is removed from the model because it does not pass the classic assumptions test. The research results are variable GDP negative effect on NPLs, the economy will increase the value of NPLs. CAR negative effect on NPLs, increasing the bank's capital will reduce the level of NPLs. ROA and inflation does not affect the NPL, any changes in these two variables do not affect the value of the NPL.

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