scholarly journals Nexus between China-Pak Business Cycle Synchronization and Human Development in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol Volume 4 (Issue 3) ◽  
pp. 445-468
Author(s):  
Ali Abbas ◽  
Dr. Zahid Pervaiz
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Human Development ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Business Cycle Synchronization ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

This study has examined the potential impact of China-Pak business cycle synchronization on human development in Pakistan. Data covered the time span of 1975-2017. Other independent variables include inflation, GDP per capita, external debt and FDI. Results of unit root test showed that all variables were stationary with mixture of level and first difference. F-bounds test confirmed the presence of long run relationship among the variables. ARDL technique was applied to obtain long run coefficients. The study found that FDI and GDP per capita had positive and significant impact on human development while China-Pak business cycle synchronization, inflation and external debt had negative and significant relationship with human development in Pakistan. Results showed the value of error correction term -0.16 with 1 percent level of significance which confirmed the presence of short run equilibrium in the model. All independent variables had significant relationship with human development in the short run. CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests showed that parameters of the model were stable. The study suggested that government should focus critically China-Pak business cycle synchronization to uplift human development in Pakistan for which domestic production should be promoted to facilitate domestic producers that might be helpful to improve employment level which finally can raise human development. Control on inflation is significant for the sake of human development. Policy makers should take steps for improvement in GDP per capita and FDI to encourage human development in Pakistan.

The long run impact of immigration on labor market in an advanced economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 356-367
Author(s):  
Faridul Islam ◽  
Saleheen Khan
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Advanced Economy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamic relationship among immigration rate, GDP per capita, and and real wage rates in the USA. Design/methodology/approach – The paper implements the Johansen-Juselius (1990, 1992) cointegration technique to test for a long-run relationship; and for short-run dynamics the authors apply Granger causality tests under the vector error-correction model. Findings – The results show that the long-run causality runs from GDP per capita to immigration, not vice versa. Growing economy attracts immigrants. The authors also find that immigration flow depresses average weekly earnings of the natives in the long-run. Originality/value – The authors are not aware of any study on the USA addressing the impact of immigrants on labor market using a tripartite approach by explicitly incorporating economic growth. It is therefore important to pursue a theoretically justified empirical model in search of a relation to resolve on apparent immigration debate.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Government Debt and Social Welfare

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-134
Author(s):  
Muhammad Kivlan Reftreka Nugraha ◽  
Hefrizal Handra
Keyword(s):  
Social Welfare ◽  
Negative Correlation ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Poverty Level ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

This study aims to analyze the relationship between government debt and social welfare in Indonesia in 1980-2019. The data used in this research is secondary data using time series data. The analysis used is the Error Correction Model (ECM). The findings result from the first model show that in the short-run, additional debt-to-GDP was not significant to the poverty level and GDP per capita. Meanwhile, the long-run, additional debt-to-GDP is significant to the poverty level and GDP per capita. The results also find that in the long run additional debt-to-GDP is positively correlated with poverty levels in Indonesia, meaning that additional debt-to-GDP increases the poverty rate in Indonesia. For GDP per capita, additional debt-to-GDP has a negative correlation. The inflation, tax-to-GDP, and GDP are not significant to the poverty rate in the short-run. Meanwhile, the long run, the additional debt-to-GDP ratio and GDP variable is significant to the poverty rate, and has a positif and negative correlation. The findings from second model also indicate that population and inflation are significant and positively correlated with the poverty level, but tax-to-GDP ratio is not significant on GDP per capita in the short-run. Meanwhile, the long run, the population and tax-to-GDP are significant to GDP per capita. Total population has a positive correlation, while tax-to-GDP ratio has a negative correlation.

scholarly journals Evaluating the EKC Hypothesis for the BCIM-EC Member Countries under the Belt and Road Initiative

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1478 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arifur Rahman ◽  
S. M. Woahid Murad ◽  
Fayyaz Ahmad ◽  
Xiaowen Wang
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Ekc Hypothesis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

This paper attempts to examine the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for the BCIM-EC (Bangladesh–China–India–Myanmar economic corridor) member countries under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) of China. Both time series and panel data are covered, with respect to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, GDP per capita, energy use, and trade openness. For panel data analysis, GDP per capita and energy consumption have positive effects on CO2, while the effect of the quadratic term of GDP per capita is negative in the short-run. However, the short-run effects do not remain valid in the long-run, except for energy use. Therefore, the EKC hypothesis is only a short-run phenomenon in the case of the panel data framework. However, based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with and without structural breaks, the EKC hypothesis exists in India and China, while the EKC hypothesis holds in Bangladesh and Myanmar with regard to disregarding breaks within the short-run. The long-run estimates support the EKC hypothesis of considering and disregarding structural breaks for Bangladesh, China, and India. The findings of the Dumitrescu and Hurlin panel noncausality tests show that there is a unidirectional causality that runs from GDP per capita to carbon emission, squared GDP to carbon emission, and carbon emission to trade openness. Therefore, the BCIM-EC under the BRI should not only focus on connectivity and massive infrastructural development for securing consecutive economic growth among themselves, but also undertake a long-range policy to cope with environmental degradation and to ensure sustainable green infrastructure.

scholarly journals Determinants of External Debt in Jordan: An Empirical Study (1990–2014)

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torki M. Al-Fawwaz
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Study ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Per Capita

<p>This study aimed at investigating the major determinants influencing the external debt in Jordan during the period (1990-2014).</p><p>To achieve this goal, annual data has been used during the period study, through applying ARDL model which consist of the dependent (external debt) and independent variables (trade openness, term of trade, exchange rate, and gross domestic product per capita).</p><p>The study reviled that there is a positive statistically significant effect trade variable on the external debt in the long run, and a negative statistically significant effect for the gross domestic product per capita variable (GDPpc) on the external debt.</p><p>The study recommended that it is very important to depend on the available recourses in trading rather that depend on external debt.</p>

scholarly journals Determinants of Household Debt in Botswana: 1994-2012

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Faith M. Zimunya ◽  
Mpho Raboloko
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Household Debt ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

<p><em>The paper identifies the factors that are influential in determining the growth of household debt in Botswana. Understanding the relationship between household debt and other economic indicators is an important step towards formulating focused and effective policies that control the effects of household debt on the whole economy. Using quarterly data from the first quarter of 1994 to the second quarter of 2012,</em><em> </em><em>the paper employs the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to analyse the influence of </em><em>G</em><em>ross </em><em>D</em><em>omestic </em><em>P</em><em>roduct (GDP) per capita, interest rates, inflation, household consumption and money supply on household debt. The findings indicate that GDP per capita, interest rates and money supply determine changes in household debt in the long-run. Further analysis shows that lagged household debt, interest rates and money supply influence changes in household debt in the short-run.</em></p><p><em><br /></em></p>

scholarly journals An Investigation of the Effects of the Official Development Assistance on GDP Per Capita in Pakistan

2019 ◽  
Vol IV (I) ◽  
pp. 233-239
Author(s):  
Muhammad Tariq ◽  
Muhammad Jehangir ◽  
Hussain Ali
Keyword(s):  
Development Assistance ◽  
Official Development Assistance ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Correction Coefficient ◽  
Use Of Time ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Development Support ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Relationship Of

The paper investigates the influence of official development support on Pakistan GDP per capita making use of time series yearly data from 1991 to 1917. ADF has been used for examining the level of integration of the data. After that, ARDL has been used for discovering the short and long-run relationship of the official development assistance and the GDP per capita. The results uncover that official assistance relationship with GDP per capita became negative in the short run in addition to a long-run period. In similar manner inflation also became negatively significant in the short and long run. Additionally, lag GDP per capita is positively significant. Population growth turned positively significant in the long run. In addition, it has become negatively significant in the short-run period of time. Furthermore, the Error Correction coefficient is –0. 83% and remained significant

scholarly journals Exploring Economic Growth and Environment Nexus in Nine Southeastern European Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 253-268
Author(s):  
Petar Mitić ◽  
Slobodan Cvetanović
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Trading Scheme

Abstract This paper investigates the interdependence between environmental degradation (CO2 emissions) and economic growth (GDP per capita) in nine SEE countries over the period 1992 – 2016. The results of Granger causality testing indicate that in the short run there is a positive bidirectional causal relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP per capita, but in the long run, there is causality running just from GDP per capita to CO2 emissions, with the 2.0279% speed of adjustment. In pursuit of adequate policy measures, SEE countries need to work on inclusion of non-EU countries into European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme, further developing carbon taxation policies and using renewable energy sources on a larger scale.

scholarly journals Fertility and Household Welfare in Nigeria: A Time Series Econometric Approach

2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Ovikuomagbe Oyedele
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Household Welfare ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

This study examines the effect of fertility levels on household welfare in Nigeria during the period from 1980 to 2020. Using data from the World Development Indicators for 2021, the estimation process began with a unit root test for the stationarity of the variables. A bounds cointegration test showed the presence of a long-run relationship between household consumption expenditure and fertility, but the result was inconclusive when real GDP per capita was used as a welfare proxy. The ARDL model was employed and the results showed that fertility had a negative, significant effect on household consumption per capita only in the short run. The effect was from previous years thereby showing a lagged effect. However, when welfare is measured using real GDP per capita, there were both short-run and long-run effects, such that Kuznets’ hypothesis of an inverted U-shaped relationship was obtained in the short run. In the long run, however, the relationship becomes U-shaped, implying that there is the possibility of a demographic dividend in the long run. Fertility policies must endeavor to control for the immediate or short-run negative effects of rising fertility rates and make deliberate plans to engage the future large working population in order to reap the possible demographic dividend.

scholarly journals The Effects of Primary Budget Deficits on Economic Growth: Evidence from Kenya

2021 ◽  
pp. 36-52
Author(s):  
Patrick Mugendi Mugo ◽  
Wafula Masai ◽  
Kennedy Osoro
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Golden Rule ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Fixed Capital Formation ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

Aims: The paper attempts to examine the effects of primary budget deficits on economic growth. It reviews the nature and direction of causality between primary budget deficit and economic growth. In the recent years, these have been debated both in developed and developing countries. In contributing to this ongoing debate, the study analyzes the case for Kenya from 1980 to 2016. The evidence is intended to provide policy insights for macroeconomic stability and sustained  economic growth for shared prosperity in Kenya. Study Design: The study employs quantitative time-series research design by utilizing Stata econometrics software. Place and Duration of Study: Sample: Evidence from Kenya, from 1980 to 2016. Methodology: The study employs unit root tests, Johansen cointegration analysis, a dynamic vector error correction model and a multivariate Toda-Yamamoto Granger-causality representation. Results: The findings establish that the primary budget deficit, gross fixed capital formation, real interest rate, terms of trade, inflation growth and financial innovation have significant effects on GDP per capita growth in Kenya. Primary budget deficit has a strong and significant effect on GDP per capita growth both in short-run and long run. In the short-run, the results revealed that the primary budget deficit had a positive effect on economic growth which turned negative in the long-run. There was a unidirectional causality running from primary budget deficit to economic growth.  Conclusion: The study concludes that both in the short run and long run, primary budget deficit has strong and significant causal effects on economic growth in Kenya. The evidence underscores the need for the authorities to reduce high primary budget deficits, interest payments and domestic borrowings and strictly apply the golden rule of public finances to boost long term inclusive growth, in Kenya. 

scholarly journals Personal remittances, banking sector development and economic growth in Israel: A trivariate causality test

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 1014-1027
Author(s):  
Kunofiwa Tsaurai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Banking Sector Development ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Per Capita

The current study investigates the causal relationship between personal remittances and economic growth using Israel time series data from 1975 to 2011. In a bid to contain the omission-of-variable bias not addressed in many past studies on this topic, this study included banking sector development as a third variable in the relationship between personal remittances and economic growth to create a tri-variate causality framework. Personal remittances as a ratio of GDP, domestic credit to private sector by banks as a ratio of GDP and GDP per capita were used as proxies for personal remittances, banking sector development and economic growth respectively for the purposes of this study. It used the Johansen co-integration test to examine the existence of the long run relationship and vector error correction model (VECM) to determine the direction of causality between personal remittances, banking sector development and economic growth both in the long and short run. The findings reveal that: (1) there is a significant long run causality relationship running from GDP per capita and banking sector development towards personal remittances, (2) there is an insignificant long run causality relationship running from personal remittances and GDP per capita towards banking sector development, (3) there is no long run causality relationship running from personal remittances and banking sector development towards GDP per capita and there is no short run causality relationship between the three variables that were under study in Israel. The author therefore recommends the authorities of Israel to speed up the implementation of banking sector development and economic growth programmes in order to increase the quantity of personal remittances inflows

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