scholarly journals PREDICTING THE PROBABILITY OF A RECESSION WITH NONLINEAR AUTOREGRESSIVE LEADING-INDICATOR MODELS

2001 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 482-505 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heather M. Anderson ◽  
Farshid Vahid
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Leading Indicators ◽  
Marginal Contribution ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Leading Indicator ◽  
Interest Rate Spread ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

We develop nonlinear leading-indicator models for GDP growth, with the interest-rate spread and growth in M2 as leading indicators. Since policy makers typically are interested in whether a recession is imminent, we evaluate these models according to their ability to predict the probability of a recession. Using data for the United States, we find that conditional on the spread, the marginal contribution of M2 growth in predicting recessions is negligible.

The Mechanism of Shifting From Direct Monetary Policies to Indirect Monetary Policies

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saad Khalaf ◽  
Abdul Rahman Abdul Ridha ◽  
Hussein Habeeb
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Main Tool ◽  
The United States ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The World ◽  
New Policies ◽  
The Interest Rate

After 2008, a new term appeared on monetary policies after the direct monetary policies failed to reach a solution to the economic deficit that occurred in the economies of many countries, especially after the mortgage crisis that plagued the financial markets in most countries of the world, as these countries tried to reduce the interest rate to Zero or close to it in order to move the economy, but it did not respond despite the fact that the interest rate is the main tool and is considered the control stick in direct monetary policies.  Thus, it became imperative for those countries to use new tools in order to get out of that crisis. Japan is considered the first to use these new policies and solutions before that period, and he is the first to call them indirect monetary policies. These tools were called by many names, including quantitative easing, credit facilitation and others. Many names, but it was the best solution by monetary policy makers for many countries, including the United States of America, the United Kingdom of Britain and the European Union, which represent the most powerful economies in the world,

The Role of Sex and Age on Pre-drinking: An Exploratory International Comparison of 27 Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (4) ◽  
pp. 378-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Ferris ◽  
Cheneal Puljević ◽  
Florian Labhart ◽  
Adam Winstock ◽  
Emmanuel Kuntsche
Keyword(s):  
Multilevel Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
Drinking Behaviour ◽  
Single Model ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Worldwide Phenomenon ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Multivariate Multilevel Models

Abstract Aims This exploratory study aims to model the impact of sex and age on the percentage of pre-drinking in 27 countries, presenting a single model of pre-drinking behaviour for all countries and then comparing the role of sex and age on pre-drinking behaviour between countries. Methods Using data from the Global Drug Survey, the percentages of pre-drinkers were estimated for 27 countries from 64,485 respondents. Bivariate and multivariate multilevel models were used to investigate and compare the percentage of pre-drinking by sex (male and female) and age (16–35 years) between countries. Results The estimated percentage of pre-drinkers per country ranged from 17.8% (Greece) to 85.6% (Ireland). The influence of sex and age on pre-drinking showed large variation between the 27 countries. With the exception of Canada and Denmark, higher percentages of males engaged in pre-drinking compared to females, at all ages. While we noted a decline in pre-drinking probability among respondents in all countries after 21 years of age, after the age of 30 this probability remained constant in some countries, or even increased in Brazil, Canada, England, Ireland, New Zealand and the United States. Conclusions Pre-drinking is a worldwide phenomenon, but varies substantially by sex and age between countries. These variations suggest that policy-makers would benefit from increased understanding of the particularities of pre-drinking in their own country to efficiently target harmful pre-drinking behaviours.

scholarly journals Legal Financial Obligations and Probation: Findings from the 1995 Survey of Adults on Probation

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 450
Author(s):  
Marshall L. White ◽  
William J. Sabol
Keyword(s):  
Economic Status ◽  
The United States ◽  
Community Supervision ◽  
Late 20Th Century ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Correctional Systems ◽  
Alternatives To Incarceration ◽  
Financial Obligations ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Violent Offenses

During the late 20th century, imprisonment rates in the United States saw unprecedented growth, leading correctional systems across the country to face widespread overcrowding and underfunding. Subsequently, policy makers sought out alternatives to incarceration for certain categories of offenses. Community supervision, such as probation, emerged as a popular solution to both reduce prison and jail populations as well as to generate revenue to fund the rapidly expanding legal system. With the rise in community supervision came increases in the number of people on probation for lower-level and non-violent offenses. The expansion of legal financial obligations (LFO) placed additional burdens on these persons, who disproportionately sit in lower socio-economic status brackets. Using data from the 1995 Survey of Adults on Probation (SAP), the current study adds to the literature on probation and LFOs in an important way. The SAP data contain information on the amount, frequency, and type of LFO. Thus, this paper examines the distinct types of LFOs to determine the differential burden that each type of LFO has on people on probation. This paper finds that of all types of fees, those associated with victim restitution are most likely to lead to missed payments, while those that generate revenues do not contribute significantly to missed payments. This paper discusses the implications of this for procedural justice and fairness.

scholarly journals IDENTIFYING THE BOTTOM LINE AFTER A STOCK MARKET CRASH

2000 ◽  
Vol 11 (01) ◽  
pp. 91-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. M. ROEHNER
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Operational Definition ◽  
Bottom Line ◽  
Strong Negative Correlation ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Interest Rate Spread ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Definition Of

In this empirical paper we show that in the months following a crash there is a distinct connection between the fall of stock prices and the increase in the range of interest rates for a sample of bonds. This variable, which is often referred to as the interest rate spread variable, can be considered as a statistical measure for the disparity in lenders' opinions about the future; in other words, it provides an operational definition of the uncertainty faced by economic agents. The observation that there is a strong negative correlation between stock prices and the spread variable relies on the examination of eight major crashes in the United States between 1857 and 1987. That relationship which has remained valid for one and a half century in spite of important changes in the organization of financial markets can be of interest in the perspective of Monte Carlo simulations of stock markets.

scholarly journals INFLUENCE OF INTEREST RATE ON THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF AGRICULTURAL FIRMS LISTED AT THE NAIROBI SECURITIES EXCHANGE

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Dr. Samuel Kanga Odalo ◽  
Dr. George Achoki ◽  
Dr. Amos Njuguna
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Multivariate Regression Model ◽  
Interest Rate Spread ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Interest Rate

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to establish to establish the influence of interest rate on the financial performance of agricultural firms listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange.Methodology: The research design adopted was descriptive and causal (explanatory). A census approach was adopted and all the seven listed agricultural companies were taken as the population. The respondents’ sample was from finance departments at all levels and 220 questionnaires were administered. Primary data was collected using questionnaires while the secondary data was collected using data collection sheets from the firms as well as from the Nairobi Securities Exchange and CMA records. The particular inferential statistic was regression and correlation analysis. Panel data methodology was employed using a multivariate regression model to test the hypotheses and link the variables.Results: The findings revealed that interest rate has a positive and significant relationship with ROA, ROE and EPS. In addition, the findings from the interaction of the independent variables and the interest rate revealed that interest rate moderate the effect of financial performance of agricultural firms listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange.Unique contribution to theory, practice and policy: The study recommends that financial institutions and banks in Kenya should assess their clients which include agricultural firms listed in NSE while setting up interest rates policies, as ineffective interest rate policies can increase the level of interest rates and consequently cost of borrowing and negate financial performance of the borrowing firms. The study also recommends that the Central Bank should apply stringent regulations on interest rates charged by financial institutions so as to regulate their interest rate spread.

A Policy Approach to Overcome Pre-Immigration Barriers to Participation in the Latinx Immigrant Community

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 455-475
Author(s):  
Javier M. Rodríguez ◽  
Rafael A. Jimeno ◽  
Carlos A. Echeverría-Estrada ◽  
Sandra P. García
Keyword(s):  
Political Participation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Logit Analysis ◽  
Immigrant Community ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

Policies to encourage socio-political participation of Latinx immigrants in the United States heavily rely on the primacy of assimilation processes resulting from immigrants’ exposure to the American political system alone. However, this approach overlooks the potential layers of complexity fostered by pre-immigration factors and how these interact with immigrants’ experiences in the U.S. We conduct a multinomial logit analysis using data from the 2006 Latino National Survey and emergent research on the impact of pre-immigration experiences to determine what factors can both activate participation and be influenced by institutions and policy makers in the U.S. Though we find that low levels of socio-political participation among Latinx immigrants strongly correlate with low levels of pre-immigration participation, for the outlier cases we analyze what factors contribute to increase participation once in the U.S. Results demonstrate the need for political parties and organizations to increase the long-term investment in young Latinx immigrants.

Migration and the Internet

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 331-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas John Cooke ◽  
Ian Shuttleworth
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Information And Communication Technologies ◽  
Unobserved Heterogeneity ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
The United States ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Information And Communication ◽  
Using Data ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Dynamics Models

It is widely presumed that information and communication technologies, or ICTs, enable migration in several ways; primarily by reducing the costs of migration. However, a reconsideration of the relationship between ICTs and migration suggests that ICTs may just as well hinder migration; primarily by reducing the costs of not moving.  Using data from the US Panel Study of Income Dynamics, models that control for sources of observed and unobserved heterogeneity indicate a strong negative effect of ICT use on inter-state migration within the United States. These results help to explain the long-term decline in internal migration within the United States.

Water Resources Management in the Semi-Arid Central Valley of California

1987 ◽  
Vol 19 (9) ◽  
pp. 97-106
Author(s):  
J. J. Vasconcelos
Keyword(s):  
Resource Management ◽  
Ground Water ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Arid Regions ◽  
Central Valley ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Ground Water Resource ◽  
Semi Arid

Hater resource managers in semi-arid regions are faced with some unique problems. The wide variations in precipitation and stream flows in semi-arid regions increase man's dependence on the ground water resource for an ample and reliable supply of water. Proper management of the ground water resource is absolutely essential to the economic well being of semi-arid regions. Historians have discovered the remains of vanished advanced civilizations based on irrigated agriculture which were ignorant of the importance of proper ground water resource management. In the United States a great deal of effort is presently being expended in the study and control of toxic discharges to the ground water resource. What many public policy makers fail to understand is that the potential loss to society resulting from the mineralization of the ground water resource is potentially much greater than the loss caused by toxic wastes discharges, particularly in developing countries. Appropriations for ground water resource management studies in developed countries such as the United States are presently much less than those for toxic wastes management and should be increased. It is the reponsibility of the water resource professional to emphasize to public policy makers the importance of ground water resource management. Applications of ground water resource management models in the semi-arid Central Valley of California are presented. The results demonstrate the need for proper ground water resource management practices in semi-arid regions and the use of ground water management models as a valuable tool for the water resource manager.

scholarly journals Small firms and the COVID-19 insolvency gap

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian Oliver Dörr ◽  
Georg Licht ◽  
Simona Murmann
Keyword(s):  
Financial Distress ◽  
Small Firms ◽  
English Summary ◽  
Policy Support ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Special Role ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Large Wave ◽  
Using Data

AbstractCOVID-19 placed a special role on fiscal policy in rescuing companies short of liquidity from insolvency. In the first months of the crisis, SMEs as the backbone of Germany’s economy benefited from large and mainly indiscriminate aid measures. Avoiding business failures in a whatever-it-takes fashion contrasts, however, with the cleansing mechanism of economic crises: a mechanism which forces unviable firms out of the market, thereby reallocating resources efficiently. By focusing on firms’ pre-crisis financial standing, we estimate the extent to which the policy response induced an insolvency gap and analyze whether the gap is characterized by firms which were already struggling before the pandemic. With the policy measures being focused on smaller firms, we also examine whether this insolvency gap differs with respect to firm size. Our results show that the COVID-19 policy response in Germany has triggered a backlog of insolvencies that is particularly pronounced among financially weak, small firms, having potential long-term implications on entrepreneurship and economic recovery.Plain English Summary This study analyzes the extent to which the strong policy support to companies in the early phase of the COVID-19 crisis has prevented a large wave of corporate insolvencies. Using data of about 1.5 million German companies, it is shown that it was mainly smaller firms that experienced strong financial distress and would have gone bankrupt without policy assistance. In times of crises, insolvencies usually allow for a reallocation of employees and capital to more efficient firms. However, the analysis reveals that this ‘cleansing effect’ is hampered in the current crisis as the largely indiscriminate granting of liquidity subsidies and the temporary suspension of the duty to file for insolvency have caused an insolvency gap that is driven by firms which were already in a weak financial position before the crisis. Overall, the insolvency gap is estimated to affect around 25,000 companies, a substantial number compared to the around 16,300 actual insolvencies in 2020. In the ongoing crisis, policy makers should prefer instruments favoring entrepreneurs who respond innovatively to the pandemic instead of prolonging the survival of near-insolvent firms.

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