Is there a limit to the size of the state? The scope conditions of Wagner's law

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 217-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven M. Karceski ◽  
Edgar Kiser
Keyword(s):  
Rubber Band ◽  
The State ◽  
Recent Time ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Wagner’S Law ◽  
General Test ◽  
Wagner's Law ◽  
State Growth ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractWe investigate the relationship between economic development and the growth of the state by testing Wagner's Law. We begin with a general test, and find it does not hold in all cases: it breaks down at higher levels of development and in more recent time periods. This suggests that Wagner's law has specific scope conditions, beyond which states do not continue to grow as economies grow. We use a series of models to explore the temporal scope of Wagner's law and the point at which state growth may hit a ceiling. We conclude limits on the growth of the state are set by limits on the capacity of states to increase taxation. States can avoid this problem temporarily by running budget deficits, but eventually accumulated debt forces them to cut expenditures. Spending is tied to tax revenue like a rubber band, it can stretch only so far before being pulled back.

scholarly journals The Wagner’s law testing in the Visegrád Four countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 409-430
Author(s):  
Žaneta Tesařová
Keyword(s):  
Var Model ◽  
Capital Expenditures ◽  
Public Expenditures ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Wagner’S Law ◽  
Vec Model ◽  
Wagner's Law ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThis research paper analyses the relationship between gross domestic product and public expenditures in nominal terms. The analysis is being done by using the standard Peacock-Wiseman specification of the Wagner’s law and provides the results for the Visegrád Four countries, i.e. the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary. We aim to answer a question concerning the existence of a long and/or short-term relationship between the nominal GDP and nominal public expenditures, which consist of current and capital expenditures. To address this question, we employ the VAR model, the Johansen Cointegration test and the VEC model. We study a period between the first quarter of 1999 and the second quarter of 2019 and find out mixed results for the Visegrád Four countries.

PENGUJIAN WAGNER'S LAW VERSUS KEYNESIAN HYPOTHESIS: PENDEKATAN REGIONAL INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-193
Author(s):  
Esti Pasaribu ◽  
Septriani Septriani
Keyword(s):  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Empirical Theory ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Wagner’S Law ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Wagner's Law ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

In this paper, we tested the Wagner’s Law against the Keynesian Hypothesis for Indonesia using granger causality test. After conducting theoretical and empirical theory, this paper is analysing the relationship between government expenditure and GDP percapita. The long run parameters and causality test found valid Wagners’ Law in Indonesia not Keynesian Hypothesis. The results reveal a positive and statistically significant long run effect running from economic growth toward the government expenditure refer to Wagner’s Law in Indonesia. Further more, the growth of population is giving a positive effect for government expenditure also.

scholarly journals THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING: A CASE STUDY OF OIC COUNTRIES

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heri Sudarsono
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Wagner’S Law ◽  
The Public ◽  
Wagner's Law ◽  
The Relationship

This paper presents the results for testing for causal relationship between economic growth and goverment spending for OIC countries covering the time series data 1970~2006. There are usually two propositions regarding the relation between economic growth and government spending: Wagner’s Law states that as GDP grows, the public sector tends to grow; and the Keynesian framework postulates that public expenditure causes GDP to grow. The primary strength and originality of this paper is that we used aggregate data as well as disaggregate data for Granger causality test. By testing for causality between economic growth and government spending, we find that government spending does cause economic growth in Iran, Nigeria and Tunisia, which are compatible with Keynesian’s theory. However, the economic growth does cause the increase in goverment spending in Algeria, Burkina Faso, Benin, Indonesia, Libya Malaysia, Marocco, and Saudi, which are well-suited with Wagner’s law.

scholarly journals The validity of Wagner’s law in Egypt from 1960–2018

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Noha Hesham Ghazy ◽  
Hebatallah Ghoneim ◽  
Dimitrios Paparas
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Wagner’S Law ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Wagner's Law ◽  
German Economist ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose One of the main theories regarding the relationship between government expenditure and gross domestic product (GDP) is Wagner’s law. This law was developed in the late-19th century by Adolph Wagner (1835–1917), a prominent German economist, and depicts that an increase in government expenditure is a feature often associated with progressive states. This paper aims to examine the validity of Wagner’s law in Egypt for 1960–2018. The relationship between real government expenditure and real GDP is tested using three versions of Wagner’s law. Design/methodology/approach To test the validity of Wagner in Egypt, law time-series analysis is used. The methodology used in this paper is: unit-root tests for stationarity, Johansen cointegration approach, error-correction model and Granger causality. Findings The results provide strong evidence of long-term relationship between GDP and government expenditure. Moreover, the causal relationship is found to be bi-directional. Hence, this study provides support for Wagner’s law in the examined context. Research limitations/implications It should be noted, however, that there are some limitations to this study. For instance, in this paper, the government’s size was measured through government consumption expenditure rather than government expenditure due to data availability, which does not fully capture the government size. Moreover, the data available was limited and does not fully cover the earliest stages of industrialization and urbanization for Egypt. Furthermore, although time-series analysis provides a more contextualized results and conclusions, the obtained conclusions suffer from their limited generalizability. Originality/value This paper aims to specifically make a contribution to the empirical literature for Wagner’s law, by testing the Egyptian data using time-series econometric techniques for the longest time period examined so far, which is 1960–2018.

Testing Wagner’s Law for Germany: An Exercise in Applied Time Series Analysis / Gilt das Wagner’sehe Gesetz für Deutschland? Eine Übung in angewandter Zeitreihenanalyse

1996 ◽  
Vol 215 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernd Hayo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Single Equation ◽  
The State ◽  
State Sector ◽  
Wagner’S Law ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Cointegrating Vector ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Wagner's Law

SummaryThis paper tests for Wagner’s Law in Germany over the period 1960 to 1993, using quarterly data. The hypothesis is specified as the elasticity of the share of the state sector in GNP with respect to real GNP per capita. After testing for integration and cointegration, the elasticity has been estimated alternatively under the assumption of stationarity (ADL-model) and nonstationarity (single equation and system methods for estimating the cointegrating vector) of the series. The elasticity appears to be significantly greater than zero, its size being between 0.35 and 1.57, with some indication that it is around unity. Thus, this study shows evidence of Wagner’s Law for Germany over the investigated period.

Emotion Appraisals Predict Neuroticism and Extraversion

2015 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Andrew Comensoli ◽  
Carolyn MacCann
Keyword(s):  
University Students ◽  
The State ◽  
The Relationship

The current study proposes and refines the Appraisals in Personality (AIP) model in a multilevel investigation of whether appraisal dimensions of emotion predict differences in state neuroticism and extraversion. University students (N = 151) completed a five-factor measure of trait personality, and retrospectively reported seven situations from the previous week, giving state personality and appraisal ratings for each situation. Results indicated that: (a) trait neuroticism and extraversion predicted average levels of state neuroticism and extraversion respectively, and (b) five of the examined appraisal dimensions predicted one, or both of the state neuroticism and extraversion personality domains. However, trait personality did not moderate the relationship between appraisals and state personality. It is concluded that appraisal dimensions of emotion may provide a useful taxonomy for quantifying and comparing situations, and predicting state personality.

GAGASAN PEMIKIRAN DAN GERAKAN DAKWAH M. NATSIR DI INDONESIA

1970 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 284-295
Author(s):  
Muridan Muridan
Keyword(s):  
Boarding School ◽  
Religious Discourse ◽  
The State ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Islamic Values

M. Natsir was one of the most prominent figures in religious discourse and movement in Indonesia. He was ada’wa reformer as well as a politician and a statesman.His most well known ideas were about the relationship between Islamand state, Islam and Pancasila, and his idea on da’wa. He stated that a country would be Islamic because of neither itsformal name as an Islamic state nor its Islamic state principles. The principles of the state could be generally formulated aslong as they referred to the Islamic values. Natsir also stated that the essence of Pancasila didn’t contradict with Islam; evensome parts of it went after the goals of Islam. However, it didn’t mean that Pancasila was identical with Islam. In relation toda’wa, he stated that it should be the responsibility of all Muslims, not only the responsibility of kiai or ulama. To make a da’wamovement successful, he suggested that it needed three integrated components; masjid, Islamic boarding school, andcampus.

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