scholarly journals Preferences for consensus and majoritarian democracy: long- and short-term influences

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Mónica Ferrín ◽  
Enrique Hernández
Keyword(s):  
European Social Survey ◽  
Ideal Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Social Survey ◽  
Consensus Democracy ◽  
Coalition Governments ◽  
Majoritarian Democracy ◽  
Institutional Learning ◽  
The Ideal

Abstract This article analyzes individuals’ preferences for a consensus or a majoritarian type of democracy. We theorize that variation in these preferences is a function of both institutional learning (long term) and individuals’ position as a political minority or majority (short term). First, as a result of institutional learning, we expect that individuals living in democracies characterized by coalition governments will favor consensus democracy. Conversely, those living in countries characterized by single-party executives will favor majoritarian democracy. Second, we expect that individuals’ position as an electoral minority or majority will affect these beliefs. Those who vote for small parties will favor a consensus democracy, while those who vote for large parties will support a majoritarian system. However, whether institutional learning or individuals’ position as a political minority or majority prevail in influencing these preferences about the ideal model of democracy will be a function of the democratic trajectory of each country. We test these arguments drawing on data from the European Social Survey.

scholarly journals Vitaindító javaslatok a román–magyar viszony rövid távú javítása és hosszú távú fejlesztése kapcsán: a kisebbségi törvény aktualitása és egyéb problémák

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 3-10
Author(s):  
Emőd Veress
Keyword(s):  
Language Use ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Ideal Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Discussion Paper ◽  
Consociational Democracy ◽  
Cultural Autonomy ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Ideal

The aim of the discussion paper is to assess the current state of Romanian−Hungarian relations in Transylvania, the causes of the problems and possible ways to improve interethnic links. The proposals include legal and non-legal solutions. From a Hungarian point of view, is not possible to circumvent the redesign of the dialogue; it is necessary to be able to explain why the goal is to achieve consociational democracy. In this context, it is also necessary to write a short programe document in Romanian outlining the ideal model of coexistence. The legal instrument for moving forward still seems to be the Minority Act provided for in the Constitution but never adopted. In this regard, Romania is in a situation of anti-constitutionality due to omission. Resolving the problem of language use in the judiciary is also a key issue. The establishment of training centres in Cluj-Napoca and Iași within the framework of the National Institute of Magistracy in the short term may be a step forward to tackle the under-representation in the judiciary, while consociational democracy is the solution in the long term for this issue as well. The topic of cultural autonomy, which already exists in certain elements, is also open and may lead to progress, and this must be resolved within the framework of the Minority Act.

Economic conditions and perceptions of immigrants as an economic threat in Europe: Temporal dynamics and mediating processes

2021 ◽  
pp. 002071522199352
Author(s):  
Boris Heizmann ◽  
Nora Huth
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
European Social Survey ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Conflict Theory ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Political Climate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Threat ◽  
Party Positions

This article addresses the extent to which economic downturns influence the perception of immigrants as an economic threat and through which channels this occurs. Our primary objective is an investigation of the specific mechanisms that connect economic conditions to the perception of immigrants as a threat. We therefore also contribute to theoretical discussions based on group threat and realistic group conflict theory by exposing the dominant source of competition relevant to these relationships. Furthermore, we investigate whether people react more sensitive to short-term economic dynamics within countries than to the long-term economic circumstances. Our database comprises all waves of the European Social Survey from 2002 to 2017. The macro-economic indicators we use include GDP per capita, unemployment, and national debt levels, covering the most salient economic dimensions. We furthermore control for the country’s migration situation and aggregate party positions toward cultural diversity. Our results show that the dynamic short-term developments of the economy and migration within countries are of greater relevance for perceived immigrant threat than the long-term situation. In contrast, the long-term political climate appears to be more important than short-term changes in the aggregate party positions. Further mediation analyses show that objective economic conditions influence anti-immigrant attitudes primarily through individual perceptions of the country’s economic performance and that unemployment rates are of primary importance.

scholarly journals INVEST ASI, EKSPOR DAN MASALAH DE-INDUSTRIALISASI DI INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 179
Author(s):  
Anton Agus Setyawan ◽  
Fatchurrohman Fatchurrohman
Keyword(s):  
Direct Investment ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Slow Growth ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Investment Rate ◽  
The Ideal

There are two constraints in the process of economic recovery in Indonesia. First, investment rate is decreasing in the last five years. This matter happens due to the bad investment climate in Indonesia. Second, slow growth of export rate in Indonesia. At the present, investment rate in Indonesia is only 22 percent of GDP, while the ideal rate is 30 percent of GDP. Another problem, which may be interrupting the economic recovery, is de-industrialization. The sign of de-industrialization occur by relocation phenomena of FDIfrom Indonesia. This research analyze the effects of direct investment and export to GDP. The tool of analyses of this research is econometric model known as Error Correc­tion Models. The results shows that in a long term and short term, export and direct investment do not have a significant effect to GDP. It shows that Indonesia do not have a clear policy about export and investment. The policy implications of this research are government should have a deregulation policy in the industry and recover investment climate.

Which Government’s Policy Style is More Conducive to Prevention?

2020 ◽  
pp. 64-86
Author(s):  
Paul Cairney ◽  
Emily St Denny
Keyword(s):  
Political Culture ◽  
Coalition Building ◽  
Political Systems ◽  
Prevention Policy ◽  
Consensus Democracy ◽  
Majoritarian Democracy ◽  
Policy Style ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Scottish Politics

We have demonstrated that many governments face the same ‘prevention puzzle’, caused partly by universal drivers associated with multi-centric policymaking. Further, they face contradictory pressures to share power for pragmatic reasons or centralize power to seem in control. However, what if policymakers in different political systems try to solve these dilemmas in fundamentally different ways? For example, are some systems more conducive to long-term planning and more likely to facilitate central governments trying to ‘let go’ and encourage localism? This question is often central to comparative political studies involving the UK. The UK’s Westminster model often represents the archetype of a ‘majoritarian’ democracy with a top-down policymaking style and adversarial political culture. Lijphart contrasts it with ‘consensus’ democracy characterized by coalition-building between parties and political culture built on ‘inclusiveness, bargaining and compromise’. In theory, this distinction could guide our analysis of UK and Scottish preventive policymaking, since some ‘architects of devolution’ envisaged ‘new Scottish politics’ as the antidote to ‘old Westminster’, to produce a consensus democracy with greater emphasis on pragmatic policymaking. However, their reputations are inaccurate caricatures that provide a misleading way to compare UK and Scottish prevention policy.

scholarly journals Is it All about the Economy? Government Fractionalization, Economic Performance and Satisfaction with Democracy across Europe, 2002−13

2015 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 100-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elina Kestilä-Kekkonen ◽  
Peter Söderlund
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
European Social Survey ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Political Systems ◽  
Social Survey ◽  
Satisfaction With Democracy ◽  
Dominant Party ◽  
Coalition Governments ◽  
Government Power

While previous research has generally shown that economic performance is an important predictor of satisfaction with democracy, differences between political systems on the majoritarian-consensual dimension have not been as marked as expected. What has been neglected in previous studies is how the interaction between economic performance and type of power-sharing arrangement co-produce democratic satisfaction. This study uses multiple rounds of data from the European Social Survey between 2002 and 2013 involving 31 countries. The results show that short-term changes in economic performance and government fractionalization interactively increase or decrease levels of political support. The effect of economic performance on satisfaction with democracy becomes weaker the more fractionalized a government is. Satisfaction with how democracy works in a country remains relatively high in systems with fractionalized coalition governments when the economy is performing poorly. But when the economy performs extraordinarily well, satisfaction with democracy is even higher in countries with a dominant party in charge of government power.

Het littekeneffect: de blijvende invloed van langdurige werkloosheid op welzijn

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter H. van der Meer ◽  
Nick Mulder
Keyword(s):  
Social Norms ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Self Esteem ◽  
European Social Survey ◽  
Multilevel Analyses ◽  
Subjective Well Being ◽  
Social Survey ◽  
Loss Of Self ◽  
The Unemployed

The scarring effect: the lasting impact of long-term unemployment on wellbeing In this article we answer the question whether the scarring effect of unemployment lasts into retirement. This is an interesting question because the answer provides insights into the explanation of this scarring effect. If pensioners are scarred by unemployment than this suggests that the scar is caused by a loss of self-esteem. If pensioners don't have the scar than this suggests that the scar among employed is explained by either a scaring effect or by not abiding social norms. Our multilevel analyses of data for 25 countries that participated in the European Social Survey showed that pensioners do have such a scar. Pensioners who have been unemployed for at least three months have a lower level of subjective well-being than pensioners who were never unemployed. This shows that unemployment coincides with a loss of self-esteem. It is an additional argument why governments should give a higher level of priority in combatting unemployment to avoid social losses, not only for the unemployed but for the pensioners as well.

scholarly journals The Effects of the Frequency and Implementation Lag of Basket Updates on the Canadian CPI

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 979-1004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ning Huang ◽  
Waruna Wimalaratne ◽  
Brent Pollard
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Subsequent Increase ◽  
Canadian Data ◽  
Price Trends ◽  
Marginal Returns ◽  
Implementation Lag ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Ideal

AbstractIn this article, we examine the effects of different frequencies and implementation months of basket updates on the fixed-basket price index – the Lowe index, through theoretical analysis and empirical simulation using Canadian data from 2000 to 2013. We find that both an increased frequency of basket updates and a faster implementation of these new baskets will reduce substitution bias in the CPI. However, we also find that improvements to the method of accelerating frequency has diminishing marginal returns in practice – as each subsequent increase in the frequency with which the CPI basket is updated has a less pronounced effect; and the ideal link-month when a new basket is implemented is unpredictable, since the impact of the implementation lag depends upon the consistency between short-term price movements and long-term price trends.

scholarly journals Exogenous shocks and citizens’ satisfaction with governmental policies: can empirical evidence from the 2008 financial crisis help us understand better the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takis Venetoklis
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
European Social Survey ◽  
Term Effect ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Exogenous Shocks ◽  
The 2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
The Government ◽  
Term Performance

AbstractI examine to what extend the financial crisis of 2008 affected levels of individual satisfaction with governments in general and three policy areas in particular; the economy, health services and education. I use data from the European Social Survey (9 rounds, 2002-2018, 14 countries, approx.195000 observations). Running Interrupted Time Series regressions I find that, on aggregate, there was a decrease of satisfaction with the government and the economy immediately after the crisis, but an increase for health and educational services. Longer term, satisfaction gradually increased for all the four indicators examined. In separate regressions for each country, a consistent pattern of behavior emerges. Where the short-term effect on satisfaction was negative, the long-term effect was positive, and vice versa. The switch, from short-term negative to long-term positive effect, could be attributed to the successful efforts of governments to correct the immediate adverse effects of the crisis. On the contrary, some individuals seeing the problems other countries faced, applauded their own government’s short term performance in handling the crisis. With the passing of time however, they gradually became more critical. The COVID-19 pandemic has forced governments to implement policies reviving the economy and improving services in health and the education sectors, amongst others. Results of this study may be used when measuring and evaluating the effects of the current pandemic.

scholarly journals Modeling the Evolution of Ideological Landscapes through Opinion Dynamics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Lorenz
Keyword(s):  
Classical Model ◽  
Opinion Dynamics ◽  
European Social Survey ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Stylized Facts ◽  
Social Survey ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Bounded Confidence ◽  
Bounded Confidence Model

This paper explores the possibilities to explain the stylized facts of empirically observed ideological landscapes through the bounded confidence model of opinion dynamics. Empirically, left-right self-placements are often not normally distributed but have multiple peaks (e.g. extreme-left-center-right-extreme). Some stylized facts are extracted from histograms from the European Social Survey. In the bounded confidence model, agents repeatedly adjust their ideological position in their ideological neighborhood. As an extension of the classical model, agents sometimes completely reassesses their opinion depending on their ideological openness and their propensity for reassessment, respectively. Simulations show that this leads to the emergence of clustered ideological landscapes similar to the ones observed empirically. However, not all stylized facts of real world ideological landscapes can be reproduced with the model. Changes in the model parameters show that the ideological landscapes are susceptible to interesting slow and abrupt changes.A long term goal is to integrate models of opinion dynamics into the classical spatial model of electoral competition as a dynamic element taking into account that voters themselves shape the political landscape by adjusting their positions and preferences through interaction.

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