When More Information is Bad Information: Maximizer Involvement and Decision Outcomes

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Olson ◽  
Rohini Ahluwalia
Keyword(s):  
Decision Outcomes

scholarly journals Chameleonic knowledge: a study of ex ante analysis in large infrastructure policy processes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars Dorren ◽  
Wouter Van Dooren
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
Knowledge Use ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Substantive Content ◽  
Infrastructure Policy ◽  
Decision Outcomes ◽  
Ex Ante

AbstractUsing ex ante analysis to predict policy outcomes is common practice in the world of infrastructure planning. However, accounts of its uses and merits vary widely. Advisory agencies and government think tanks advocate this practice to prevent cost overruns, short-term decision-making and suboptimal choices. Academic studies on knowledge use, on the other hand, are critical of how knowledge can be used in decision making. Research has found that analyses often have no impact at all on decision outcomes or are mainly conducted to provide decision makers with the confidence to decide rather than with objective facts. In this paper, we use an ethnographic research design to understand how it is possible that the use of ex ante analysis can be depicted in such contradictory ways. We suggest that the substantive content of ex ante analysis plays a limited role in understanding its depictions and uses. Instead, it is the process of conducting an ex ante analysis itself that unfolds in such a manner that the analysis can be interpreted and used in many different and seemingly contradictory ways. In policy processes, ex ante analysis is like a chameleon, figuratively changing its appearance based on its environment.

scholarly journals Learning about water resource sharing through game play

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 4079-4091 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tracy Ewen ◽  
Jan Seibert
Keyword(s):  
Water Resource ◽  
Time Management ◽  
Resource Sharing ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Sustainable Use ◽  
Team Work ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Decision Outcomes ◽  
Masters Students ◽  
Resource Decision

Abstract. Games are an optimal way to teach about water resource sharing, as they allow real-world scenarios to be enacted. Both students and professionals learning about water resource management can benefit from playing games, through the process of understanding both the complexity of sharing of resources between different groups and decision outcomes. Here we address how games can be used to teach about water resource sharing, through both playing and developing water games. An evaluation of using the web-based game Irrigania in the classroom setting, supported by feedback from several educators who have used Irrigania to teach about the sustainable use of water resources, and decision making, at university and high school levels, finds Irrigania to be an effective and easy tool to incorporate into a curriculum. The development of two water games in a course for masters students in geography is also presented as a way to teach and communicate about water resource sharing. Through game development, students learned soft skills, including critical thinking, problem solving, team work, and time management, and overall the process was found to be an effective way to learn about water resource decision outcomes. This paper concludes with a discussion of learning outcomes from both playing and developing water games.

scholarly journals Lay beliefs in physiognomy explain overreliance on facial impressions

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bastian Jaeger ◽  
Anthony M Evans ◽  
Marielle Stel ◽  
Ilja van Beest
Keyword(s):  
Representative Sample ◽  
Diagnostic Information ◽  
Facial Features ◽  
Facial Appearance ◽  
Dutch Population ◽  
Judgment Accuracy ◽  
Lay Beliefs ◽  
Decision Outcomes ◽  
Accuracy Study

People often rely on a person’s facial appearance when judging their character, even when more diagnostic information is available. This can lead to worse decision outcomes and appearance-based discrimination. What explains this overreliance on facial impressions? In three studies, we examine the role of lay beliefs in physiognomy—the idea that facial features are indicative of a person’s character. We find widespread endorsement of physiognomic beliefs in a representative sample of the Dutch population (Study 1, n = 2,624). Crucially, people with stronger physiognomic belief rely more on facial impressions when making trust decisions (Study 2, n = 224). They are also more confident in their ability to detect corrupt politicians based on facial photographs, but this increased confidence is not associated with superior judgment accuracy (Study 3, n = 406). In sum, our studies show that physiognomic beliefs are widespread and related to overreliance on facial impressions.

An extended WASPAS approach for teaching quality evaluation based on pythagorean fuzzy reducible weighted Maclaurin symmetric mean

2022 ◽  
pp. 1-32
Author(s):  
Dongmei Wei ◽  
Yuan Rong ◽  
Harish Garg
Keyword(s):  
Quality Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Teaching Quality ◽  
Teaching Management ◽  
Maclaurin Symmetric Mean ◽  
School Teaching ◽  
Decision Outcomes ◽  
Multiple Input ◽  
Product Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Assessment

Teaching quality evaluation (TQE) can not only improve teachers’ teaching skills, but also provide an important reference for school teaching management departments to formulate teaching reform measures and strengthen teaching management. TQE is a process of grading and ranking a given teachers based on the comprehensive consideration of multiple evaluation criteria by expert. The Maclaurin symmetric mean (MSM), as a powerful aggregation function, can capture the correlation among multiple input data more efficient. Although multitude weighted MSM operators have been developed to handle the Pythagorean fuzzy decision issues, these above operators do not possess the idempotency and reducibility during the procedure of information fusion. To conquer these defects, we present the Pythagorean fuzzy reducible weighted MSM (PFRWMSM) operator and Pythagorean fuzzy reducible weighted geometric MSM (PFRWGMSM) operator to fuse Pythagorean fuzzy assessment information. Meanwhile, several worthwhile properties and especial cases of the developed operators are explored at length. Afterwards, we develop a novel Pythagorean fuzzy entropy based upon knowledge measure to ascertain the weights of attribute. Furthermore, an extended weighted aggregated sum product assessment (WASPAS) method is developed by combining the PFRWMSM operator, PFRWGMSM operator and entropy to settle the decision problems of unknown weight information. The efficiency of the proffered method is demonstrated by a teaching quality evaluation issue, as well as the discussion of sensitivity analysis for decision outcomes. Consequently, a comparative study of the presented method with the extant Pythagorean fuzzy approaches is conducted to display the superiority of the propounded approach.

Agents, Availability Awareness, and Decision Making

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 53-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Russell ◽  
Victoria Y. Yoon
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Decision Support System ◽  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Support System ◽  
Resource Availability ◽  
Implementation Framework ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Decision Outcomes

Despite the importance of resource availability, the inclusion of availability awareness in current agent-based systems is limited, particularly in decision support settings. This article discusses issues related to availability awareness in agent-based systems and proposes that knowledge of resources’ online status and readiness in these systems can improve decision outcomes. A conceptual model for incorporating availability and presence awareness in an agent-based system is presented, and an implementation framework operationalizing the conceptual model using JADE is proposed. Finally, the framework is developed as an agent-based decision support system (DSS) and evaluated in a decision making simulation.

scholarly journals Physician Review of Workers' Compensation Case Files: Can It Affect Decision Outcomes?

2012 ◽  
Vol 177 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark E. Hammett ◽  
Christopher Jankosky ◽  
John Muller ◽  
Elizabeth Hughes ◽  
Francesca Litow
Keyword(s):  
Workers Compensation ◽  
Physician Review ◽  
Decision Outcomes ◽  
Case Files

scholarly journals Rational time investment during collective decision making in Temnothorax ants

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. 20190542 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takao Sasaki ◽  
Benjamin Stott ◽  
Stephen C. Pratt
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Collective Decision ◽  
Collective Decision Making ◽  
Ant Colonies ◽  
Temnothorax Albipennis ◽  
Time Investment ◽  
Decision Outcomes ◽  
Nest Site Choice ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms

The study of rational choice in humans and other animals typically focuses on decision outcomes, but rationality also applies to decision latencies, especially when time is scarce and valuable. For example, the smaller the difference in quality between two options, the faster a rational actor should decide between them. This is because the consequences of choosing the inferior option are less severe if the options are similar. Experiments have shown, however, that humans irrationally spend more time choosing between similar options. In this study, we assessed the rationality of time investment during nest-site choice by the rock ant, Temnothorax albipennis . Previous studies have shown that collective decision-making allows ant colonies to avoid certain irrational errors. Here we show that the same is true for time investment. Individual ants, like humans, irrationally took more time to complete an emigration when choosing between two similar nests than when choosing between two less similar nests. Whole colonies, by contrast, rationally made faster decisions when the options were more similar. We discuss the underlying mechanisms of decision-making in individuals and colonies and how they lead to irrational and rational time investment, respectively.

scholarly journals Data-driven decision support under concept drift in streamed big data

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 157-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Lu ◽  
Anjin Liu ◽  
Yiliao Song ◽  
Guangquan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Concept Drift ◽  
High Volume ◽  
Streaming Data ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Research Directions ◽  
Decision Outcomes ◽  
Past Data

Abstract Data-driven decision-making ($$\mathrm {D^3}$$D3M) is often confronted by the problem of uncertainty or unknown dynamics in streaming data. To provide real-time accurate decision solutions, the systems have to promptly address changes in data distribution in streaming data—a phenomenon known as concept drift. Past data patterns may not be relevant to new data when a data stream experiences significant drift, thus to continue using models based on past data will lead to poor prediction and poor decision outcomes. This position paper discusses the basic framework and prevailing techniques in streaming type big data and concept drift for $$\mathrm {D^3}$$D3M. The study first establishes a technical framework for real-time $$\mathrm {D^3}$$D3M under concept drift and details the characteristics of high-volume streaming data. The main methodologies and approaches for detecting concept drift and supporting $$\mathrm {D^3}$$D3M are highlighted and presented. Lastly, further research directions, related methods and procedures for using streaming data to support decision-making in concept drift environments are identified. We hope the observations in this paper could support researchers and professionals to better understand the fundamentals and research directions of $$\mathrm {D^3}$$D3M in streamed big data environments.

Strategic decision-making

2018 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satyanarayana Parayitam ◽  
Chris Papenhausen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Conflict Management ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Strategic Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Decision Outcomes ◽  
Seeking Behavior ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the effect of cooperative conflict management on agreement-seeking behavior, agreement-seeking behavior on decision outcomes, moderating role of competence-based trust on the relationship between agreement-seeking behavior and decision outcomes, and mediating role of agreement-seeking behavior between cooperative conflict management and decision outcomes. Design/methodology/approach Using a structured survey instrument, this paper gathered data from 348 students enrolled in a strategic management capstone course that features strategic decision-making in a simulated business strategy game. The data from 94 teams were collected from the student population using a carefully administered instrument. The data were aggregated after running the inter-rater agreement test and the analyzed to test the hypotheses. Findings The results from the hierarchical regression of the complex moderated mediation model reveal that cooperative conflict management is positively related to agreement-seeking behavior, and agreement-seeking behavior mediates the relationship between cooperative conflict management and decision outcomes. The results also suggest that competence-based trust acts as a moderator in the relationship between agreement-seeking behavior and decision quality; agreement-seeking behavior and team effectiveness, and agreement-seeking behavior and decision commitment. Results also support mediation of agreement-seeking behavior between cooperative conflict management and decision outcomes. Research limitations/implications The present research is based on self-report measures, and hence, the limitations of social desirability bias and common method bias are inherent. However, adequate care is taken to minimize these limitations. The research has implications for the strategic decision-making process literature. Practical implications In addition to the strategic management literature, this study contributes to practicing managers. The study suggests that competence-based trust plays a vital role in decision effectiveness. Administrators need to select the members in the decision-making process who have competence-based trust on one another and engage in agreement-seeking behavior. Social implications The findings from the study help in creating a fruitful social environment in organizations. Originality/value This study provides new insights about the previously unknown effects of cooperative conflict management and agreement-seeking behavior in strategic decision-making process.

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