scholarly journals Outdoor PM2.5 concentration and rate of change in COVID-19 infection in provincial capital cities in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Han ◽  
Jacqueline C. K. Lam ◽  
Victor O. K. Li ◽  
Jon Crowcroft ◽  
Jinqi Fu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interaction Analysis ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Model ◽  
Absolute Humidity ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Capital Cities ◽  
Lag Effects ◽  
Co Morbidity ◽  
Provincial Capital ◽  
The Individual

AbstractThis study investigates thoroughly whether acute exposure to outdoor PM2.5 concentration, P, modifies the rate of change in the daily number of COVID-19 infections (R) across 18 high infection provincial capitals in China, including Wuhan. A best-fit multiple linear regression model was constructed to model the relationship between P and R, from 1 January to 20 March 2020, after accounting for meteorology, net move-in mobility (NM), time trend (T), co-morbidity (CM), and the time-lag effects. Regression analysis shows that P (β = 0.4309, p < 0.001) is the most significant determinant of R. In addition, T (β = −0.3870, p < 0.001), absolute humidity (AH) (β = 0.2476, p = 0.002), P × AH (β = −0.2237, p < 0.001), and NM (β = 0.1383, p = 0.003) are more significant determinants of R, as compared to GDP per capita (β = 0.1115, p = 0.015) and CM (Asthma) (β = 0.1273, p = 0.005). A matching technique was adopted to demonstrate a possible causal relationship between P and R across 18 provincial capital cities. A 10 µg/m3 increase in P gives a 1.5% increase in R (p < 0.001). Interaction analysis also reveals that P × AH and R are negatively correlated (β = −0.2237, p < 0.001). Given that P exacerbates R, we recommend the installation of air purifiers and improved air ventilation to reduce the effect of P on R. Given the increasing observation that COVID-19 is airborne, measures that reduce P, plus mandatory masking that reduces the risks of COVID-19 associated with viral-particulate transmission, are strongly recommended. Our study is distinguished by the focus on the rate of change instead of the individual cases of COVID-19 when modelling the statistical relationship between R and P in China; causal instead of correlation analysis via the matching analysis, while taking into account the key confounders, and the individual plus the interaction effects of P and AH on R.

scholarly journals Outdoor PM2.5 Concentration and Rate of Change in COVID-19 Infection in 31 Provincial Capital Cities in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Han ◽  
Jacqueline C.K. Lam ◽  
Victor O.K. Li ◽  
Jon Crowcroft ◽  
Peiyang Guo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Interaction Analysis ◽  
Influenza Infection ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Model ◽  
Absolute Humidity ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Capital Cities ◽  
Air Ventilation ◽  
Provincial Capital ◽  
Effective Public Health

Background: Motivated by the findings that exposure to daily outdoor PM2.5 (P) may increase the risk of influenza infection, our study examines if immediate exposure to outdoor P will modify the rate of change in the daily number of COVID-19 infections (R), for (1) 31 Chinese provincial capital cities and (2) Wuhan, China, using regression modelling. Effective public health measures for reducing R are recommended. Method: A multiple linear regression model was constructed to model the statistical relationship between P and R in China and in Wuhan, from 1 January to 20 March 2020. We carefully accounted for potential key confounders and addressed collinearity. The causal relationship between P and R, and the interaction effect between key variables were investigated. Finding: A causal relationship between P and R across 31 provincial capital cities in China was established via matching. A higher P resulted in a higher R in China. A 10 μg/m3 increase in P gave a 0.9% increase in R (p < 0.05). An interaction analysis between P and absolute humidity (AH) showed a statistically significant positive relationship between P × AH and R (p < 0.01). When AH was ≤ 8.6 g/m3, higher P and AH gave a higher R (p < 0.01). Interpretation: Given that P can exacerbate R, we recommend the installation of air purifiers and improving air ventilation to reduce the effect of P on R. Given that an increasing AH that falls below 8.6 g/m3 exacerbated R, dehumidifiers can be used to reduce AH and R. Further, given the increasing discussions/observations that COVID-19 can be airborne, surgical masks should be used to protect one from contracting the virus via the viral-particulate transmission pathway.

scholarly journals Transmissibility of epidemic diseases caused by delay with local proportional fractional derivative

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullah Khamis Alzahrani ◽  
Oyoon Abdul Razzaq ◽  
Najeeb Alam Khan ◽  
Ali Saleh Alshomrani ◽  
Malik Zaka Ullah
Keyword(s):  
Biological Sciences ◽  
Fractional Derivative ◽  
Dynamic Assessment ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Contagious Diseases ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Special Case ◽  
Epidemic Diseases

AbstractEpidemiological models have been playing a vital role in different areas of biological sciences for the analysis of various contagious diseases. Transmissibility of virulent diseases is being portrayed in the literature through different compartments such as susceptible, infected, recovered (SIR), susceptible, infected, recovered, susceptible (SIRS) or susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR), etc. The novelty in this endeavor is the addition of compartments of latency and treatment with vaccination, so the system is designated as susceptible, vaccinated, exposed, latent, infected, treatment, and recovered (SVELITR). The contact of a susceptible individual to an infective individual firstly makes the individual exposed, latent, and then completely infection carrier. Innovatively, the assumption that exposed, latent, and infected individuals enter the treatment compartment at different rates after a time lag is also deliberated through the existence of time delay. The rate of change and constant solutions of each compartment are studied with incorporation of a special case of proportional fractional derivative (PFD). In addition, existence and uniqueness of the system are also comprehensively elaborated. Moreover, novel dynamic assessment of the system is carried out in context with the fractional order index. Succinctly, the manuscript accomplishes cyclic epidemiological behavior of the infectious disease due to the delay in treatment of the infected individuals.

Comprehensive assessment of the citizen wellbeing in the territory of residence: taking into account the changing influence of indicators economic security

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 491-502
Author(s):  
Alexsandr Kuklin ◽  
Sergey Okhotnikov
Keyword(s):  
Spiritual Development ◽  
Diagnostic Technique ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Degree Of Satisfaction ◽  
Current Assessment ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Individual

The article considers a generalizing characteristic of the citizen's wellbeing in the territory of residence, assesses indicators based on statistical data, and makes adjustments due to safety indicators. The author's diagnostic technique was used, which includes corrective indicators. For this purpose, the method of express diagnostics was applied, which made it possible to select the 8 most significant from 12 modules and 43 indicators of economic security. The rate of change of each of the 8 indicators was taken into account, which made it possible to determine the changes in these indicators and the predisposition to one degree or another of the socio-economic crisis. A change in the trend of an indicator can lead to the opposite effect at the expense of other main influencing indexes. This takes into account the borderline state of the indicator, namely, its rate of growth or decline and predisposition to a particular crisis zone. The turning zones of the trend of changes in indicators have been determined. The object of the research is the well-being of the individual in the territory of residence for each subject of the Ural Federal District. The authors made an attempt to consider in the analysis not just the population of the subject (the number of people), but also to assess the personality from the standpoint of moral development, the level of education, the available opportunities for spiritual development, the provision of benefits necessary to maintain life and the degree of satisfaction of the needs of the population. This will allow to carry out the current analysis of the state, but also to consider the forecast dynamics of change for the next 2 to 3 years. The results obtained can be used in the current assessment of the socio-economic situation in the regions of Russia, as well as in planning and forecasting individual indicators of individual citizen wellbeing in the territory of residence

scholarly journals Technospherization and Digitalization of the Urban Habitat as the Most Urgent Factor in the Relevancy of Social Pedagogy Modernization

2021 ◽  
Vol 93 ◽  
pp. 05012
Author(s):  
Taisiya Kolesnik ◽  
Elena Dergacheva
Keyword(s):  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Urban Habitat ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Socialization Process ◽  
Education Development ◽  
Natural Approach ◽  
Social Pedagogy ◽  
Other Information ◽  
Mechanisms Of Adaptation ◽  
The Individual

The processes of socialization of the individual in the conditions of substitution of the biosphere by the technosphere are analyzed. It is concluded that the rapid rate of change is aligned with the evolutionarily developed mechanisms of adaptation. This causes deterioration of human health and results in the inability of people to protect themselves from the negative effects of the anthropogenic world. At this conjuncture, the correction of the processes of socialization and adaptation, as well as the development of a system of values that provides for preserving of the biosphere world and life, become the fundamental tasks of education. The results of the analysis show that modern education is losing traction in the process of mindset formation, delegating these functions to other information spheres, virtual reality, and spontaneous areas of Masscult. As a result, the traditional socialization process is broken. Humane correction of the current trends requires a change in the philosophical strategy of education development. As a basis for such a strategy, we propose social pedagogy that directly studies the processes of socialization of individuals. The concept of this discipline allows using the socio-natural approach as the basis for analyzing the processes, taking place in the world and in life.

scholarly journals Doppler Shift of Radio Signals Transmitted between Orbiting Satellites

1982 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 155 ◽  
Author(s):  
PL Dyson ◽  
JA Bennett
Keyword(s):  
Electron Concentration ◽  
Doppler Shift ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Line Of Sight ◽  
Concentration Gradients ◽  
Mean Velocity ◽  
Radio Signals ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Individual

A general expression, applicable at VHF and above, is derived for the Doppler shift of radio signals transmitted between two satellites embedded in the ionosphere. The Doppler shift is made up of several contributions which depend on (a) the rate of change of the free space path between the satellites, (b) the components, perpendicular to the line of sight between the satellites, of both the mean velocity of the satellites and the electron concentration gradients, (c) the moment of the perpendicular electron concentration gradients and the deviations from the mean of the individual satellite perpendicular velocities, (d) the velocity components along the line of sight between the satellites, and the electron concentration values at each satellite, and (e) changes occurring in the ionosphere with time.

scholarly journals Attitude towards Immigrants in Russia: Regional Aspect

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 133-155
Author(s):  
Olga Demidova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Income Level ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Place Of Residence ◽  
World Value Survey ◽  
Capital Cities ◽  
Regional Aspect ◽  
Local Residents ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Regional Product

The paper examines the issues related to the identifying factors that influence the attitude of Russian people towards immigrants. As such factors, we selected the individual characteristics of the respondents (gender, age, educational level, marital status, income level, etc.), as well as indicators characterizing the respondent’s place of residence (region, type of settlement) and the economic situation in the corresponding region. (gross regional product per capita, unemployment rate, share of industries in which migrants are most employed, etc.). The analysis was based on the data of the 7th World Value Survey for Russia in 2017, containing information on 1,810 respondents from 61 Russian regions. With the help of linear regression models and geographically weighted regression was shown that the best attitude towards immigrants demonstrated young people and older generation, respondents with higher education and with average or high-income level. However, attitudes towards immigrants are varying sufficiently and greatly depend on the place of residence. The best attitude towards immigrants demonstrate residents of non-capital cities, as well as residents of the Samara and Saratov regions, the worst – residents of the most poor and most rich regions.Attitude towards immigrants is also improving with an increase in the share of construction and trade in the economy of the region (these industries employ the most immigrants). Local residents are gradually getting used to immigrants, the higher the proportion of migrants who came from abroad, the better the residents of the respective region relate to immigrants

Change of Phototropic and Geotropic Signs in Daphnia Induced by Changes of Light Intensity

1930 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 109-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. L. CLARKE
Keyword(s):  
Light Intensity ◽  
Latent Period ◽  
Daphnia Pulex ◽  
Great Majority ◽  
Absolute Intensity ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Secondary Signs

1. A method is described for studying the responses of Daphnia to changes of light intensity with special attention to the behaviour of the individual and to the avoidance of "shock" effects. The types of apparatus used provide for rigid control of the temperature, for illumination from any direction, and for an adjustable rate of change of the light intensity by means of a chemical rheostat. 2. The great majority of Daphnia magna and Daphnia pulex were found to be primarily negatively phototropic and positively geotropic. That is, they always exhibited those tropistic signs under constant conditions of illumination. 3. A reduction of the light intensity causes a temporary reversal of the tropism signs. The secondary signs thus produced are positive phototropism and negative geotropism. 4. The presence of both phototropic and geotropic forces is proved by experiments in which illumination is (1) from one side, (2) from beneath, and (3) from two opposing sides or from above and below simultaneously. In these tests and in others in which very slow and very fast rates of dimming are used the phototropic and geotropic forces are resolved, antagonised, and neutralised in succession. The responses of the Daphnia indicate that there are two types of animals which exhibit exactly the same tropisms, but in one type phototropism is the stronger while in the other geotropism is the stronger. 5. In this material it was found that the temporary secondary tropistic signs persisted only a few minutes while the primary signs persisted for hours, although this effect was somewhat less marked in weak light or in darkness. 6. The difference between "time-change" and "place-change" of light in tensity is pointed out. Daphnia is stimulated by both types of change if the rate of change is sufficiently great. 7. That photosensitive animals are stimulated to respond to changes in the intensity of light only and are merely orientated by the direction of the light is shown in the work of previous, investigators as well as in this paper. The rigidity of this mechanism is indicated by experiments in which the light is graded in intensity at right angles to its direction and in which the light is rendered converging and diverging by a lens. 8. Evidence is given for believing that there is no "absolute optimum" light intensity for Daphnia but that a "relative optimum" exists which is the intensity to which the animals are adapted at the moment. 9. The interval between the inception of the reduction of the light intensity and the beginning of swimming movements in response is called the latent period. The faster the rate of dimming, the shorter is the duration of the latent period. A minimum, amount of intensity change is required to produce any response, at any speed, but beyond that the slower the rate of dimming, the greater is the amount of change required and hence the lower is the absolute intensity at which the response takes place. Ordinarily, the response is maximal in respect to both rate and magnitude. 10. Fatigue will interfere with experimentation unless guarded against. 11. Specimens of Daphinia with reversed primary signs gain temporary secondary signs following an increase of light intensity; otherwise they behave like the more usual forms. 12. The possibility that the processes of adaptation in Daphnia may account for the photic responses observed is discussed. Support for this theory is derived from the fact that it is possible to dim the light over a given range at such a slow rate that no response is produced.

Wavelet and cross correlation analysis on some climatology parameters of Nepal

BIBECHANA ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-116
Author(s):  
Babu Ram Tiwari ◽  
Jiyao Xu ◽  
Binod Adhikari ◽  
Narayan Prasad Chapagain
Keyword(s):  
Wavelet Transform ◽  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Spectral Characteristics ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sunspot Numbers ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Convective Motions

This study has been performed to understand the relationship between sunspot numbers (SSN) with climatology related parameters like temperature and rainfall from 1901 to 2016. The spectral characteristics of sunspot numbers, temperature and rainfall have been observed using continuous wavelet transform. Cross-correlation analyses were also performed to find any relation among temperature, rainfall, and sunspot numbers. The 9–11 year periodicity of sunspot numbers confirmed by wavelet transform in annual scale. The periodicity of high-frequency signals is identified between 4 to 11 years whereas the low frequencies signal is found throughout the periods of observation for temperature. Similarly, it is clear that there is more concentration of power between 8–16 years for rainfall. Cross-correlation analysis shows that the sunspot numbers is highly correlated with rainfall and temperature (correlation coefficient ~ 0.8054). The time lag relationship resulted in the almost simultaneous linear relationship between the temperature, rainfall, and the SSN tendency. The development of convective motions over the subtropics might be affected by the time rate of change of SSN combined with the surface temperature changes of diverse time scales. The convective motions were mostly controlled by the available amount of water vapor and the stability of the atmosphere that had a strong connection with the heat capacity of the concerned region. To produce more authentic findings for policy implications, further comprehensive and appropriate research can be undertaken and implemented in this very important field. BIBECHANA 18 (2) (2021) 105-115

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