scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Apocheima cinerarius (Erschoff) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae)

Insects ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 59
Author(s):  
Weicheng Ding ◽  
Hongyu Li ◽  
Junbao Wen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Insect Pests ◽  
Growth Index ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Temperate Zone ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
And Control

Among the impacts of ongoing and projected climate change are shifts in the distribution and severity of insect pests. Projecting those impacts is necessary to ensure effective pest management in the future. Apocheima cinerarius (Erschoff) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) is an important polyphagous forest pest in China where causes huge economic and ecological losses in 20 provinces. Under historical climatic conditions, the suitable areas for A. cinerarius in China are mainly in the northern temperate zone (30–50° N) and the southern temperate zone (20–60° S). Using the CLIMEX model, the potential distribution of the pest in China and globally, both historically and under climate change, were estimated. Suitable habitats for A. cinerarius occur in parts of all continents. With climate change, its potential distribution extends northward in China and generally elsewhere in the northern hemisphere, although effects vary depending on latitude. In other areas of the world, some habitats become less suitable for the species. Based on the simulated growth index in CLIMEX, the onset of A. cinerarius would be earlier under climate change in some of its potential range, including Spain and Korea. Measures should anticipate the need for prevention and control of A. cinerarius in its potential extended range in China and globally.

scholarly journals The current and future potential geographical distribution of the oriental fruit fly,Bactrocera dorsalis(Diptera: Tephritidae)

2007 ◽  
Vol 97 (4) ◽  
pp. 369-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.E.A. Stephens ◽  
D.J. Kriticos ◽  
A. Leriche
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cold Stress ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Fruit Fly ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Bactrocera Dorsalis ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Oriental Fruit Fly ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe oriental fruit fly,Bactrocera dorsalis(Hendel), is a major pest throughout South East Asia and in a number of Pacific Islands. As a result of their widespread distribution, pest status, invasive ability and potential impact on market access,B. dorsalisand many other fruit fly species are considered major threats to many countries. CLIMEX™ was used to model the potential global distribution ofB. dorsalisunder current and future climate scenarios. Under current climatic conditions, its projected potential distribution includes much of the tropics and subtropics and extends into warm temperate areas such as southern Mediterranean Europe. The model projects optimal climatic conditions forB. dorsalisin the south-eastern USA, where the principle range-limiting factor is likely to be cold stress. As a result of climate change, the potential global range forB. dorsalisis projected to extend further polewards as cold stress boundaries recede. However, the potential range contracts in areas where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially. The significant increases in the potential distribution ofB. dorsalisprojected under the climate change scenarios suggest that the World Trade Organization should allow biosecurity authorities to consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. One of the most significant areas of uncertainty in climate change concerns the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results are provided that span the range of standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios. The impact on the projected distribution ofB. dorsalisis striking, but affects the relative abundance of the fly within the total suitable range more than the total area of climatically suitable habitat.

scholarly journals Modeling and mapping the habitat suitability and the potential distribution of Arboviruses vectors in Morocco

Parasite ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 28 ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Outammassine Abdelkrim ◽  
Boussaa Samia ◽  
Zouhair Said ◽  
Loqman Souad
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Vector Competence ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Vector Surveillance ◽  
Potential Vector ◽  
Potential Habitat ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
And Control

Mosquitoes transmit several agents of diseases and the presence of different species represents a threat to animal and public health. Aedes and Culex mosquitoes are of particular concern giving their potential vector competence for Arbovirus transmission. In Morocco, the lack of detailed information related to their spatial distribution raises major concerns and hampers effective vector surveillance and control. Using maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling, we generated prediction models for the potential distribution of Arboviruses vectors (Aedes aegypti, Ae. vexans, Ae. caspius, Ae. detritus, and Culex pipiens) in Morocco, under current climatic conditions. Also, we investigated the habitat suitability for the potential occurrence and establishment of Ae. albopictus and Ae. vittatus recorded only once in the country. Prediction models for these last two species were generated considering occurrence datasets from close countries of the Mediterranean Basin, where Ae. albopictus is well established, and from a worldwide database for the case of Ae. vittatus (model transferability). With the exception of Ae. vittatus, the results identify potential habitat suitability in Morocco for all mosquitos considered. Existing areas with maximum risk of establishment and high potential distribution were mainly located in the northwestern and central parts of Morocco. Our results essentially underline the assumption that Ae. albopictus, if not quickly controlled, might find suitable habitats and has the potential to become established, especially in the northwest of the country. These findings may help to better understand the potential distribution of each species and enhance surveillance efforts in areas identified as high risk.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts Assessment on Wine-Growing Bioclimatic Transition Areas

Agriculture ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 605
Author(s):  
Alba Piña-Rey ◽  
Estefanía González-Fernández ◽  
María Fernández-González ◽  
Mª. Nieves Lorenzo ◽  
Fco. Javier Rodríguez-Rajo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Cultural Practice ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Bioclimatic Indices ◽  
Northwestern Spain ◽  
The Mediterranean

Viticultural climatic indices were assessed for the evaluation of the meteorological variations in the requirements of wine cultivars. The applied bioclimatic indices have been widely used to provide an initial evaluation of climate change impacts on grapevine and to delineate wine regions and suitable areas for planting around the world. The study was carried out over a period of 16 years (from 2000 to 2015) in five Designation of Origin areas in Northwestern Spain located in the Eurosiberian region, the transition zone between the Eurosiberian and the Mediterranean areas, and in the Mediterranean area. In addition, the high-resolution meteorological dataset “Spain02” was applied to the bioclimatic indices for the period 1950–2095. To further assess the performance of “Spain02”, Taylor diagrams were elaborated for the different bioclimatic indices. A significant trend to an increase of the Winkler, Huglin, Night Cold Index and GSS Indices was detected in the North-western Spain, whereas slight negative trends for BBLI and GSP Indices were observed. To analyze future projections 2061–2095, data from the high-resolution dynamically downscaled daily climate simulations from EURO-CORDEX project were used. To further assess the performance of Spain02, Taylor diagrams were elaborated for the different bioclimatic indices. A trend to an increase of the Winkler, Huglin, Night Cold Index and GSP Indices was detected in Northwestern Spain, whereas slight negative trends for BBLI and GSP Indices were observed. Our results showed that climatic conditions in the study region could variate for the crop in the future, more for Mediterranean than Eurosiberian bioclimatic area. Due to an advance in the phenological events or the vintage data, more alcohol-fortified wines and variations in the acidity level of wines could be expected in Northwestern Spain, these processes being most noticeable in the Mediterranean area. The projections for the BBLI and GSP Indices will induce a decrease in the pressure of the mildew attacks incidence in the areas located at the Eurosiberian region and the nearest transition zones. Projections showed if the trend of temperature increase continues, some cultural practice variations should be conducted in order to preserve the grape cultivation suitability in the studied area.

Climate change impacts on the potential distribution of Eogystia hippophaecolus in China

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (1) ◽  
pp. 215-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xue Li ◽  
Xuezhen Ge ◽  
Linghong Chen ◽  
Linjing Zhang ◽  
Tao Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Impacts

scholarly journals Current and future suitable habitat areas for Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) in Colombia and Ecuador and analysis of its distribution across different land uses

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno ◽  
Patricia Gutiérrez-Salazar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Wildlife Conservation ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Niche Models

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.

scholarly journals SWAT BASED ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT IN THENPENNAI SUB-BASIN OF SOUTH INDIA

2018 ◽  
Vol XLII-5 ◽  
pp. 557-562
Author(s):  
K. Nivedita Priyadarshini ◽  
S. A. Rahaman ◽  
S. Nithesh Nirmal ◽  
R. Jegankumar ◽  
P. Masilamani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Soil And Water

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Climate change impacts on watershed ecosystems and hydrologic processes are complex. The key significant parameters responsible for balancing the watershed ecosystems are temperature and rainfall. Though these parameters are uncertain, they play a prime role in the projections of dimensional climate change studies. The impact of climate change is more dependent on temperature and precipitation which contributes at a larger magnitude for characterising global warming issues. This paper aims to forecast the variations of temperature and precipitation during the period of 2020&amp;ndash;2050 for the northern part of Thenpennar sub basin. This study is modelled using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) &amp;ndash; a scale model developed to predict the impact of changes that occurs in land, soil and water over a period of time. This study is validated using the base period from 1980&amp;ndash;2000 which shows the distribution of rainfall and temperature among 38 watersheds. The results from this study show that there is a decrease in the rainfall for a maximum of about 20% in the month of December during the predicted period of 2020 and 2050. This study assesses the possible adverse impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation of Thenpennai sub-basin. This kind of predictions will help the government agencies, rulers and decision makers in policy making and implementing the adaptation strategies for the changing climatic conditions.</p>

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on pest ecology and risks to pasture resilience

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Mansfield ◽  
Colin Ferguson ◽  
Philippa Gerard ◽  
David Hodges ◽  
John Kean ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Range Expansion ◽  
Insect Pests ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Pastoral Systems ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Levels ◽  
Farm System ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

It is well understood that damage by insect pests can have serious consequences for pasture resilience. However, the impacts of climate change on pastoral systems, the responses of insect pests, and implications for pest impact mitigation are unclear. This paper reviews pest responses to climate change, including direct impacts such as temperature and carbon dioxide levels, geographic range expansion, sleeper pests, and outbreaks resulting from disturbance such as drought and farm system changes. The paper concludes with a plea for transdisciplinary research into pasture resilience under climate change that has insect pests as an integral component – not as an afterthought.

scholarly journals Predicting the Potential Global Geographical Distribution of Two Icerya Species under Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 684
Author(s):  
Yang Liu ◽  
Juan Shi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South America ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Scientific Management ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Invasive Pests ◽  
Suitable Habitats

Climate change is predicted to alter the geographic distribution of a wide variety of taxa, including insects. Icerya aegyptiaca (Douglas) and I. purchasi Maskell are two polyphagous and invasive pests in the genus Icerya Signoret (Hemiptera: Monophlebidae) and cause serious damage to many landscape and economic trees. However, the global habitats suitable for these two Icerya species are unclear. The purpose of this study is to determine the potentially suitable habitats of these two species, then to provide scientific management strategies. Using MaxEnt software, the potential risk maps of I. aegyptiaca and I. purchasi were created based on their occurrence data under different climatic conditions and topology factors. The results suggested that under current climate conditions, the potentially habitable area of I. aegyptiaca would be much larger than the current distribution and there would be small changes for I. purchasi. In the future climate change scenarios, the suitable habitats of these two insect species will display an increasing trend. Africa, South America and Asia would be more suitable for I. aegyptiaca. South America, Asia and Europe would be more suitable for I. purchasi. Moreover, most of the highly habitat suitability areas of I. aegyptiaca will become concentrated in Southern Asia. The results also suggested that “min temperature of coldest month” was the most important environmental factor affecting the prediction models of these two insects. This research provides a theoretical reference framework for developing policies to manage and control these two invasive pests of the genus Icerya.

scholarly journals Modeling the Potential Global Distribution of Phenacoccus madeirensis Green under Various Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 773 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiufeng Wei ◽  
Xiaozhou Li ◽  
Yunyun Lu ◽  
Ling Zhao ◽  
Hufang Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Invasive Pest ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Phenacoccus Madeirensis ◽  
Control And Management

The Madeira mealybug, Phenacoccus madeirensis Green, is a serious invasive pest that does significant damage to more than 120 genera of host plants from 51 families in more than 81 countries. However, the potential distribution range of this pest is unclear, which could hamper control and eradication efforts. In the current study, MaxEnt models were developed to forecast the current and future distribution of the Madeira mealybug around the world. Moreover, the future potential distribution of this invasive species was projected for the 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (HADGEM2-AO, GFDL-CM3, and MIROC5) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP-2.6 and RCP-8.5). The final model indicates that the Madeira mealybug has a highly suitable range for the continents of Asia, Europe, and Africa, as well as South America and North America, where this species has already been recorded. Potential expansions or reductions in distribution were also simulated under different future climatic conditions. Our study also suggested that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor and explained 46.9% of the distribution model. The distribution model from the current and future predictions can enhance the strategic planning of agricultural and forestry organization by identifying regions that will need to develop integrated pest management programs to manage Madeira mealybug, especially for some highly suitable areas, such as South Asia and Europe. Moreover, the results of this research will help governments to optimize investment in the control and management of the Madeira mealybug by identifying regions that are or will become suitable for infestations.

Modelling climatic impacts on ice-jam floods: a review of current models, modelling capabilities, challenges, and future prospects.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Apurba Das ◽  
Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
River Ice ◽  
Ice Jams ◽  
Ice Jam ◽  
Northern Latitudes ◽  
Climatic Impacts ◽  
Current Modelling

River ice is an important hydraulic and hydrological component of many rivers in the high northern latitudes of the world. It controls the hydraulic characteristics of streamflow, affects the geomorphology of channels, and can cause flooding due to ice-jam formation during ice-cover freeze-up and breakup periods. In recent decades, climate change has considerably altered ice regimes, affecting the severity of ice-jam flooding. Although many approaches have been developed to model river ice regimes and the severity of ice jam flooding, appropriate methods that account for impacts of the future climate on ice-jam flooding have not been well established. Therefore, the main goals of this study are to review the current knowledge of climate change impacts on river ice processes and to assess the current modelling capabilities to determine the severity of ice jams under future climatic conditions. Finally, a conceptual river ice-jam modelling approach is presented for incorporating climate change impacts on ice jams.

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