scholarly journals Prediction of Financial Health of Business Entities of Selected Sector Using Balance Analysis II. by Rudolf Doucha and Verification of Its Predictive Ability through ROC

2021 ◽  
Vol 91 ◽  
pp. 01006
Author(s):  
Dusan Karpac ◽  
Viera Bartosova
Keyword(s):  
Financial Management ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Business Failure ◽  
Financial Health ◽  
Balance Analysis ◽  
Business Entities ◽  
The Given ◽  
A Company

Forecasting business failure is a worldwide known term, in a global notion, and there is a lot of prediction models constructed to compute financial health of a company and, by that, state whether a company inclines to financial boom or bankruptcy. A healthy financial management of a business entity is very important for the proper operation of the business, and it is therefore very important to know how to assess financial health and to anticipate possible problems that will be easier to eliminate in advance. Globalized prediction models compute financial health of companies, but the vast majority of models predicting business failure are constructed solely for the conditions of a particular country or even just for a specific sector of a national economy. Predictive models can indicate whether an entity tends to prosper or bankruptcy, and so we can assess the financial health of the business. This paper provides a description of the balance analysis II. by Rudolf Doucha, discusses its application to a sample of 266 Slovak subjects and points to its prediction in the given field. The verification of the ability to forecast bankruptcy or financial stability has been evaluated through ROC analysis.

scholarly journals The verification of prediction and classification ability of selected Slovak prediction models and their emplacement in forecasts of financial health of a company in aspect of globalization

2020 ◽  
Vol 74 ◽  
pp. 06010
Author(s):  
Dusan Karpac ◽  
Viera Bartosova
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
Roc Analysis ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Business Failure ◽  
Financial Health ◽  
Prediction Ability ◽  
Global World ◽  
A Company ◽  
International View

Predicting financial health of a company is in this global world necessary for each business entity, especially for the international ones, as it´s very important to know financial stability. Forecasting business failure is a worldwide known term, in a global notion, and there is a lot of prediction models constructed to compute financial health of a company and, by that, state whether a company inclines to financial boom or bankruptcy. Globalized prediction models compute financial health of companies, but the vast majority of models predicting business failure are constructed solely for the conditions of a particular country or even just for a specific sector of a national economy. Field of financial predictions regarding to international view consists of elementary used models, for example, such as Altman´s Z-score or Beerman´s index, which are globally know and used as basic of many other modificated models. Following article deals with selected Slovak prediction models designed to Slovak conditions, states how these models stand in this global world, what is their international connection to the worldwide economies, and also states verification of their prediction ability in a specific sector. The verification of predictive ability of the models is defined by ROC analysis and through results the paper demonstrates the most suitable prediction models to use in the selected sector.

scholarly journals The usage of economic profit and other forms of profit as a part of prediction models to forecast the financial stability of business entities in the context of globalization

2021 ◽  
Vol 92 ◽  
pp. 02025
Author(s):  
Dusan Karpac ◽  
Iveta Sedlakova
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Financial Health ◽  
Continuous Change ◽  
Economic Profit ◽  
Business Entities ◽  
Global World ◽  
A Company

Research background: Predicting financial health of a company is in this global world necessary for each business entity, especially for the international ones, as it´s very important to know financial stability. Forecasting business failure is a worldwide known term, in a global notion, and there is a lot of prediction models constructed to compute financial health of a company and, by that, state whether a company inclines to financial boom or bankruptcy. In the current global world of uncertainty and continuous change, it is in each business’s interest to improve its performance. Businesses have to adapt to changing market conditions and keep moving to maintain their, either local or global, market position. In the past, entities preferred to increase primary accounting profit forms. The global modern goal of enterprises, value creation, is achieved through the concept of economic profit. Purpose of the article: The aim of this article was to find out the connection between two very important terms for the global economy, namely prediction models and economic profit. Methods: We focused on the research of both areas and looked for a common connection through how often different forms of profit, and especially the form of economic profit, are used in individual prediction models among the examined sample. Findings & Value added: The output of the whole article is the finding the division of the use of economic and accounting profit in the sample of models and the importance of economic profit for mathematical constructions of prediction models.

scholarly journals Overview of Selected Bankruptcy Prediction Models Applied in V4 Countries

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavol Kral ◽  
Lucia Svabova ◽  
Marek Durica
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Slovak Republic ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Bankruptcy Prediction ◽  
Financial Health ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Introductory Part ◽  
Business Entities ◽  
Corporate Practice

Bankruptcy prediction models are often an applied tool for detecting unfavourable development of the financial situation of the company. The prediction of financial health of business entities is the most important information because of dynamic development of the business environment. Many prediction models are known nowadays. They are different by their reliability (predictive ability), the composition of used variables, trade union orientation, the degree of consideration of domestic market conditions etc. It is clear from this that it is not possible to create a universal, unified prediction model that would be able reliably and with sufficient time to indicate unfavourable company financial development leading to bankruptcy applied in all sectors or regions. Introductory part of contribution is devoted to the literature review of issues and the definitions of the concept of bankruptcy based on the so-called non-prosperity indicators (profit, total liquidity and equity/liabilities ratio), that take into account the current legislation of this issue in the Slovak republic. Then the contribution discusses the role and significance of prediction models in corporate practice, compares the advantages and disadvantages of models containing accounting and market indicators. The authors also devoted the space to identifying restrictions on the usability of known foreign bankruptcy models in economic conditions of V4 countries and to define a set of the most frequently applied models taking into account specific economics conditions in these countries.

scholarly journals Financial Compass for Slovak Enterprises: Modeling Economic Stability of Agricultural Entities

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 92
Author(s):  
Katarina Valaskova ◽  
Pavol Durana ◽  
Peter Adamko ◽  
Jaroslav Jaros
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Confusion Matrix ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Bankruptcy Prediction ◽  
Financial Health ◽  
Prediction Ability

The risk of corporate financial distress negatively affects the operation of the enterprise itself and can change the financial performance of all other partners that come into close or wider contact. To identify these risks, business entities use early warning systems, prediction models, which help identify the level of corporate financial health. Despite the fact that the relevant financial analyses and financial health predictions are crucial to mitigate or eliminate the potential risks of bankruptcy, the modeling of financial health in emerging countries is mostly based on models which were developed in different economic sectors and countries. However, several prediction models have been introduced in emerging countries (also in Slovakia) in the last few years. Thus, the main purpose of the paper is to verify the predictive ability of the bankruptcy models formed in conditions of the Slovak economy in the sector of agriculture. To compare their predictive accuracy the confusion matrix (cross tables) and the receiver operating characteristic curve are used, which allow more detailed analysis than the mere proportion of correct classifications (predictive accuracy). The results indicate that the models developed in the specific economic sector highly outperform the prediction ability of other models either developed in the same country or abroad, usage of which is then questionable considering the issue of prediction accuracy. The research findings confirm that the highest predictive ability of the bankruptcy prediction models is achieved provided that they are used in the same economic conditions and industrial sector in which they were primarily developed.

scholarly journals Optimization of capital structure as a tool for managing the value of dairy enterprises

2021 ◽  
pp. 111-124
Author(s):  
O.M. Varchenko ◽  
I. Artіmonova ◽  
N. Kholodenko
Keyword(s):  
Capital Structure ◽  
Financial Management ◽  
Average Cost ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Business Entities ◽  
Retained Earnings ◽  
The Capital Structure

The article is devoted to the study of methodological and practical approaches to optimizing the capital structure as a tool for managing the value of dairy enterprises. It is established that the most common and suitable for research in the context of optimizing the capital structure are two theories: compromise and the theory of the hierarchy of funding sources. It is argued that compromise models are not designed to accurately determine the optimal capital structure of the enterprise, but allow that the owners from the standpoint of risk is most advantageous to rank sources of funding as follows: retained earnings; debt sources; equity instruments, shares. It is proved that only in the complex use of approaches of foreign theories of capital structure optimization and developments of domestic scientists taking into account the environment of business entities it is possible to develop effective tools for maximizing the market value of the enterprise, minimizing the average market value of capital and risk of financial stability. The calculation of the integrated indicator of financial stability is offered, which allows to determine the level of the financial stability reserve, which allows to take into account the industry specifics and to carry out current monitoring of financial stability at the enterprise. It is substantiated that one of the methods of quantitative assessment of capital structure and substantiation of its optimal structure is the method of capital expenditures. It is argued that the estimated weighted average cost of capital varies in a fairly narrow range, is one of the key factors in the value of business, and achieving a minimum level of such a barrier rate increases the company's ability to make effective investments. It is established that determining the optimal financial structure of capital is one of the most difficult problems of financial management of dairy enterprises. It was found that the management of the formation and use of capital of dairy enterprises is focused on meeting the needs of sources of financing of their economic activities, and to achieve a balanced structure of sources of financing of capital by economic entities is possible only on the basis of optimization criteria. It is proved that the calculation of the weighted average cost of capital based on the capital assets model (CAPM) should be used provided reliable information on intra-industry indicators, in a developed stock market and the turnover of shares in the securities market. Key words: capital structure. cost of capital, cost management, dairy enterprises.

scholarly journals MANAGEMENT OF THE COMPANY'S FINANCES WITH THE OBJECTIVE OF ESTABLISHING SUSTAINABLE CONTINUOUS LIQUIDITY AND FINANCIAL STABILITY UNDER GLOBAL PROCESSES

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (28) ◽  
Author(s):  
Slobodan Subotić ◽  
Goran Mitrović ◽  
Vitomir Starčević
Keyword(s):  
Financial Management ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Successful Management ◽  
Current Form ◽  
Financial Position ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
A Company ◽  
Adequate Management

Globalization, in its current form, represents a new dynamic complex, especially when it comes to its implications for the economy and business of economic entities. It manifests its implications not only through competition, but also through economic growth and development. A modern company should provide adequate management that is able to create and develop comparative advantages that will enable it to be actively involved in global market flows. Global changes have conditioned a new way of doing business, and thus a significant turn in the approach to financial management. This has led to changes in the basic economic settings and criteria for successful management and business. The financial position of a company is one of the indicators of the company's success to function in a global and turbulent market environment. Starting from this fact, a practical treatment of this problem and analytical indicators of the financial position of the three dependent production companies operating within the MH Elektroprivreda Republike Srpske will be done. The aim of the research is to show the extent to which the management of these companies has accepted the requirements of global economic processes and adapted their business to them. That is, whether financial management provides a satisfactory level of liquidity and financial stability of these three companies.

scholarly journals FACTORS ENSURING ENTERPRISE FINANCIAL STABILITY IN TIMES OF CRISIS

2020 ◽  
Vol 139 (5) ◽  
pp. 121-129
Author(s):  
Iryna M. Miahkykh ◽  
Mariana S. Shkoda ◽  
Andrii О. Radchenko
Keyword(s):  
Financial Management ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Company Performance ◽  
Internal Environment ◽  
Working Capital ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Financial Position ◽  
A Company

The insufficiency or lack of available diagnostic instruments to predict the probability of a company bankruptcy is associated with the absence of practices to capture downturn trends in financial and business performances which translates into a dangerous process of latent transition from the company temporary local inability into the total failure to meet its obligations, that is, to a loss of financial stability. The fundamental premises of this study is to identify the factors that ensure financial stability of an enterprise. To attain the research objectives, the method of statistical analysis and logical generalization has been employed to consider a pull of enterprises that are losing their solvency and are on the verge of bankruptcy; a substrate approach was implemented to justify and group a range of internal and external factors affecting the enterprise financial stability. This article argues that a critical indicator in evaluation of a company performance is assessing its financial position which affects its competitiveness, and guarantees to all parties and business participants (both the enterprise and partners) that the realization of common economic interests will be effective. The company financial and economic position when its solvency remains constant over time together with an optimal ratio of equity to debt capital is a certain indicator of a company financial stability. Most analytical studies on enterprise financial stability view the amount, allocation and use of working capital as the most significant indicators, their accounting provides further opportunities to evaluate financial stability and financial position of an enterprise, as well as to identify potential problems and concerns that will lay the basis for choosing a relevant crisis management strategy aimed at designing and implementing effective pathways to respond to crisis. Undoubtedly, it is advisable to obtain an aggregated index that takes into account all the enterprise activities. Such index should include the following indicators: working capital availability; return on capital; independence on external financing. Thus, the essential factors in enhancing the enterprise financial management in a market environment are continuous planned analysis and timely diagnosis of changes and trends in the enterprise external and internal environment, as well as timely and maximum effective response to such changes to ensure financial stability and solvency of the enterprise. In the current business realia, characterized by a high level of economic uncertainty, achieving strategic financial goals and ensuring long-term financial stability of an enterprise is impossible without building an effective strategic financial management framework, the integral elements of which are the mechanisms and systems of risk management to prevent a drop in financial stability and mitigate shocks from external and internal environment negative effects on enterprise activity, as well as creating favourable environment for efficient decision making and planned actions to promote enterprise development.

scholarly journals Limitation of Financial Health Prediction in Companies from Post-Communist Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adriana Csikosova ◽  
Maria Janoskova ◽  
Katarina Culkova
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Financial Health ◽  
Practical Application ◽  
Economic Interests ◽  
Prediction Ability ◽  
Expert Estimation ◽  
High Prediction ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Communist Countries ◽  
A Company

The financial health of a company can be seen as the ability to maintain a balance against changing conditions in the environment and at the same time in relation to everyone participating in the business. In the evaluation of financial health and prediction of financial problems of the companies, various indexes are used that can serve as input for expert estimation or creation of various models using, for example, multi-dimensional statistical methods. The practical application of the proper method for evaluation of financial health has been analysed in post-communist countries, since they have common historic experiences and economic interests. During the research we followed up the following indexes: Altman model, Taffler model, Springate model, and the index IN, based on multi-dimensional discrimination analysis. From the research results there is obvious a necessity to combine available methods in post-communist countries and at least to eliminate their disadvantages partially. Experiences from prediction models have proved their relatively high prediction ability, but only in perfect conditions, which cannot be affirmed in post-communist countries. The task remains to modify existing indexes to concrete situations and problems of the individual industries in the chosen countries, which have unique conditions for business making.

Does intellectual capital help predict bankruptcy?

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 321-337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Velia Gabriella Cenciarelli ◽  
Giulio Greco ◽  
Marco Allegrini
Keyword(s):  
Performance Measures ◽  
Intellectual Capital ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Bankruptcy Prediction ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Content Type

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore whether intellectual capital affects the probability that a particular firm will default. The authors also test whether including intellectual capital performance in bankruptcy prediction models improves their predictive ability. Design/methodology/approach Using a sample of US public companies from the period stretching from 1985 to 2015, the authors test whether intellectual capital performance reduces the probability of bankruptcy. The authors use the VAIC as an aggregate measure of corporate intellectual capital performance. Findings The findings show that the intellectual capital performance is negatively associated with the probability of default. The findings also indicate that the bankruptcy prediction models that include intellectual capital have a superior predictive ability over the standard models. Research limitations/implications This paper contributes to prior research on intellectual capital and firm performance. To the best of the knowledge, this is the first study to show that the benefits of intellectual capital extend from superior performance to long-term financial stability. The research can also contribute to bankruptcy studies. By using a time frame covering decades, the findings suggest that intellectual capital performance measures can be included in bankruptcy prediction models and can effectively complement traditional performance measures. Originality/value This paper highlights that intellectual capital is associated with long-term financial stability and a lower bankruptcy risk. Firms realising the potential of their intellectual capital can produce a virtuous circle between higher performance and greater financial stability.

scholarly journals Assessment of Financial Health of Selected Transport Companies Conducting Business in the Public Line Transport

2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 225-232
Author(s):  
Martin Telecky ◽  
Jiri Cejka
Keyword(s):  
Financial Management ◽  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Comparison Method ◽  
Diagnostic Methods ◽  
Classification Models ◽  
Financial Health ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Values ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Given

As a part of their business, the transport companies provide the traffic services in the given region. For the needs of efficient managerial or financial management, it is necessary to know the detail financial analysis upon which the financial health of the company can be determined. The financial analysis utilizes the diagnostic methods which evaluates the company´s management from the viewpoint of the past, the presence and the expected future. Based on the financial health values, we can avoid future problems. The managers are warned against the possible bankruptcy in time. By selecting the appropriate classification models applied to the Czech environment, the financial situations of the carriers can be found out. Then, the intercompany comparison method is applied to assess the economic situation of selected carriers. The results achieved after applying the classification models and the intercompany comparison method serve as the key outcome of verification of credibility of selected classification models.

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