The resolution and potential value of Australian seasonal rainfall forecasts based on the five phases of the Southern Oscillation Index

2009 ◽  
Vol 60 (3) ◽  
pp. 230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew L. Vizard ◽  
Garry A. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Expected Value ◽  
Variance Ratio ◽  
Large Shift ◽  
Potential Value ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Cape York

We assess the resolution of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) seasonal rainfall forecasting system and calculate the loss in potential value of the forecasting system using a cost/loss model. Forecasts of the probability of a ‘dry’ autumn, winter, spring, and summer were obtained for 226 towns across Australia, based on the 5 phases of the SOI. For every town the variance ratio, the observed forecast variance as a proportion of the variance of a perfect forecasting system, was calculated for each season. Value score curves, showing the expected value of the forecasts as a proportion of the expected value of perfect information, were calculated for every town for each season. Maps of variance ratio and maps of mean value scores across Australia were produced by ordinary kriging. In all seasons and regions the SOI forecasting system had a variance ratio of less than 0.20, indicating that resolution and skill were never high. Variance ratios greater than 0.10 only occurred in parts of south-eastern Australia and the Cape York region during spring and in the Townsville region during summer. The variance ratio was less than 0.05 for the majority of Australia during autumn, winter, and summer. The mean value scores for actions that are only triggered by a large shift in the forecast from climatology were uniformly close to zero in all seasons and regions, indicating that little or no value can be derived in such cases. Actions triggered by a moderate shift of the forecast were also generally associated with low value scores. Mean value scores above 0.20 were limited to actions with a decision threshold close to climatology and only occurred in parts of south-eastern Australia and the Cape York region during spring and in the Townsville region during summer. We conclude that the imperfect resolution of the SOI forecasting system has a substantial effect on potential value. The forecasting system can potentially deliver value to users with actions that are triggered by a small shift in the forecast from climatology, especially in eastern Australia during spring, but not to users with actions that are only triggered by a large shift of the forecasts from climatology.

The Southern Oscillation Index as a predictor of seasonal rainfall in the arable areas of the inland Australian subtropics

1993 ◽  
Vol 44 (6) ◽  
pp. 1337 ◽  
Author(s):  
JS Russell ◽  
IM McLeod ◽  
MB Dale ◽  
TR Valentine
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
Seasonal Rainfall ◽  
Four Seasons ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Australian Continent ◽  
Ace Algorithm ◽  
Linear Trends

A detailed study has been carried out in four regions in the subtropics of Eastern Australia to determine the relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and subsequent seasonal rainfall. The period studied was from 1915 to 1991 for 3-monthly periods of spring (SON), summer (DJF), autumn (MAM) and winter (JJA). The 3-monthly prior SOI values were plotted against seasonal rainfall of the four regions and four seasons. These data were widely scattered but with a linear trend showing increased seasonal rainfall as the SOI increased. Linear trends were plotted for each season and region. Comparisons were made between the use of the ACE algorithm, which transforms the SOI and rainfall data, and the use of linear trends. Polynomials were used to calculate equations for each region and season, but only spring and summer produced satisfactory ACE functions. Estimates were made of spring and summer rainfall relative to prior SOI values for each region. While the SOI as a predictor of rainfall broadly estimates spring and summer rainfall, this variable has limited usefulness on its own. One of the options available with the ACE program is that additional independent variables can be added as required. Current research suggests that sea surface temperature data from specific ocean areas surrounding the Australian continent is the most useful additional variable at present. However the complexity of such an analysis is greatly increased.

Relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index and Australian sugarcane yields

1994 ◽  
Vol 45 (7) ◽  
pp. 1557 ◽  
Author(s):  
I Kuhnel
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Significance Testing ◽  
The Past ◽  
Northern Areas ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
Sugarcane Yield ◽  
The Relationship

This study examines the relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index and the sugarcane yield anomalies at 27 mills in north-eastern Australia (Queensland) for the period 1950-1989. The major results of this work indicate that the SO1 alone seems to have only a limited value as predictor of total sugarcane yields over large areas (i.e. the whole of Queensland). However, on a smaller scale, the SO1 appears to be a useful indicator of yields for the northern sugarcane districts. In these northern areas, the highest correlations with the SO1 are reached during the southern hemisphere spring and summer months 6 to 11 months prior to the harvest. They are negative and explain about 40% of the total variance. They also suggest that a positive SO1 during the spring and summer months tends to be followed by lower-than-normal yields at the following harvest and vice versa. This signal is rather robust and withstands rigorous significance testing. Moreover, it appears that the relationship between the SO1 and the sugarcane yields has been relatively strong and stable for the past 40 years, but weakened substantially during the 1930-1940 period.

scholarly journals Forecasting rainfall based on the Southern Oscillation Index phases at longer lead-times in Australia

2013 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 373 ◽  
Author(s):  
David H. Cobon ◽  
Nathan R. Toombs
Keyword(s):  
Key Management ◽  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Phase System ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Operational Forecasts ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Forecast Quality

Under the extensive grazing conditions experienced in Australia, pastoralists would benefit from a long lead-time seasonal forecast issued for the austral warm season (November–March). Currently operational forecasts are issued publicly for rolling 3-month periods at lead-times of 0 or 1 month, usually without an indication of forecast quality. The short lag between the predictor and predictand limits use of forecasts because pastoralists operating large properties have insufficient time to implement key management decisions. The ability to forecast rainfall based on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) phase system was examined at 0–5-month lead-times for Australian rainfall. The SOI phase system provided a shift of adequate magnitude in the rainfall probabilities (–40 to +30%) and forecast quality for the 5-month austral warm season at lead-times >0 months. When data used to build the forecast system were used in verification, >20% of locations had a significant linear error in probability space (LEPS) and Kruskal–Wallis (KW) test for lead-times of 0–2 months. The majority of locations showing forecast quality were in northern Australia (north of 25°S), predominately in north-eastern Australia (north of 25°S, east of 140°E). Pastoralists in these areas can now apply key management decisions with more confidence up to 2 months before the November–March period. Useful lead-times of ≥3 months were not found.

Long range forecasts of the numbers of Helicoverpa punctigera and H. armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Australia using the Southern Oscillation Index and the Sea Surface Temperature

2000 ◽  
Vol 90 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
D.A. Maelzer ◽  
M.P. Zalucki
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Pest Management ◽  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Multiple Regressions ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Trap Catches

The use of long-term forecasts of pest pressure is central to better pest management. We relate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to long-term light-trap catches of the two key moth pests of Australian agriculture, Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hübner), at Narrabri, New South Wales over 11 years, and for H. punctigera only at Turretfield, South Australia over 22 years. At Narrabri, the size of the first spring generation of both species was significantly correlated with the SOI in certain months, sometimes up to 15 months before the date of trapping. Differences in the SOI and SST between significant months were used to build composite variables in multiple regressions which gave fitted values of the trap catches to less than 25% of the observed values. The regressions suggested that useful forecasts of both species could be made 6–15 months ahead. The influence of the two weather variables on trap catches of H. punctigera at Turretfield were not as strong as at Narrabri, probably because the SOI was not as strongly related to rainfall in southern Australia as it is in eastern Australia. The best fits were again given by multiple regressions with SOI plus SST variables, to within 40% of the observed values. The reliability of both variables as predictors of moth numbers may be limited by the lack of stability in the SOI-rainfall correlation over the historical record. As no other data set is available to test the regressions, they can only be tested by future use. The use of long-term forecasts in pest management is discussed, and preliminary analyses of other long sets of insect numbers suggest that the Southern Oscillation Index may be a useful predictor of insect numbers in other parts of the world.

scholarly journals A first shallow firn-core record from Glaciar La Ollada, Cerro Mercedario, central Argentine Andes

2006 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. 14-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Bolius ◽  
Margit Schwikowski ◽  
Theo Jenk ◽  
Heinz W. Gäggeler ◽  
Gino Casassa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Time Span ◽  
Paleoclimate Reconstruction ◽  
Central Chile ◽  
Annual Layer ◽  
Firn Core

AbstractIn January 2003, shallow firn cores were recovered from Glaciar Esmeralda on Cerro del Plomo (33°14’S, 70°13’W; 5300 ma.s.l.), central Chile, and from Glaciar La Ollada on Cerro Mercedario (31°58’S, 70°07’W; 6070 ma.s.l.), Argentina, in order to find a suitable archive for paleoclimate reconstruction in a region strongly influenced by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. In the area between 28°S and 35°S, the amount of winter precipitation is significantly correlated to the Southern Oscillation Index, with higher values during El Nino years. Glaciochemical analysis indicates that the paleo-record at Glaciar La Ollada is well preserved, whereas at Glaciar Esmeralda the record is strongly influenced by meltwater formation and percolation. A preliminary dating of the Mercedario core by annual-layer counting results in a time-span of 17 years (1986-2002), yielding an average annual net accumulation of 0.45 m w.e.

scholarly journals Climatology of Heavy Orographic Rainfall Induced by Tropical Cyclones over Madagascar: From Synoptic to Mesoscale Perspectives

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatiana A. Arivelo ◽  
Yuh-Lang Lin
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Eastern Coast ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Trade Winds ◽  
Southwest Indian Ocean ◽  
The North ◽  
Orographic Rainfall

Variability of and generation mechanisms for Madagascar rainfall are studied by conducting climatological, synoptic and mesoscale analyses. It is found the rainfall variability is highly sensitive to seasons with high variability in summer (Nov-Apr). The rainfall in summer is controlled by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and orographic rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs), while the rainfall in winter (May-Oct) is controlled by trade winds and local orographic rainfall along the eastern coast. Synoptic analysis reveals that major climate variations in summer are associated with ITCZ position, which is closely related to TC genesis locations and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Linkages between El-Niño Southern Oscillation Index (ENSO) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) are identified as the cause of inconsistent dry or wet summers. Mesoscale analysis depicts the importance of the orographic effects on prevailing wind, which are controlled by the orography in both seasons. In winter, the prevailing trade winds over the Southwest Indian Ocean are from the east and are split to the north and south when it impinges on Malagasy Mountains. On the other hand, in summer the prevailing easterlies are weaker leading to the production of lee vortices, in addition to the flow splitting upstream of the mountain. Thus, the flow is classified into two regimes: (a) flow-over regime with no lee vortices under high Froude number (Fr=1.2-1.8) flow, and (b) flow-around regime with lee vortices under low Fr (=0.88-1.16) flow. A case study of TC Domoina (1984) indicates that the long-lasting heavy rainfall was induced by the strong orographic blocking of Madagascar. The shorter-term (e.g., 2 days) heavy orographic precipitation is characterized by large VH ∙Ñh which is composed by two common ingredients, namely a strong low-level wind normal to the mountain (VH) and a steep mountain slope (∇h).

Naïve rainforest frogs on Cape York, Australia, are at risk of the introduction of amphibian chytridiomycosis disease

2018 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 174
Author(s):  
Conrad J. Hoskin ◽  
Harry B. Hines ◽  
Rebecca J. Webb ◽  
Lee F. Skerratt ◽  
Lee Berger
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Emergency Procedure ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Risk Of Disease ◽  
Cape York

Amphibian chytridiomycosis disease has caused widespread declines and extinctions of frogs in cool, wet habitats in eastern Australia. Screening suggests that the disease does not yet occupy all areas modelled to be environmentally suitable, including rainforests on Cape York Peninsula. Cape Melville is an area of rainforest with several endemic frogs, including the stream-associated Melville Range treefrog (Litoria andiirrmalin), which is deemed at particular risk of disease impacts. We tested 40 L. andiirrmalin for chytrid infection by PCR and found them all to be negative. In conjunction with previous testing at another high-risk location, McIlwraith Range, this suggests that endemic rainforest frogs on Cape York have been spared the introduction of chytridiomycosis. We discuss how the disease could get to these areas, what can be done to reduce the risk, and suggest an emergency procedure should it be introduced.

scholarly journals KAJIAN STATISTIK UKURAN BESAR BUTIR SEDIMEN DAN KAITANNYA DENGAN VARIABILITAS IKLIM MUSIMAN DAN TAHUNAN DI MUARA GEMBONG, TELUK JAKARTA

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 683-695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taufik R. Syachputra ◽  
Ivonne M. Radjawane ◽  
Rina Zuraida
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Dipole Mode ◽  
Australian Monsoon ◽  
Dipole Mode Index ◽  
Monsoon Index ◽  
Mode Index

Variabilitas iklim dapat mempengaruhi sifat sedimen yang terendapkan di dasar laut. Salah satu sifat sedimen yang dipengaruhi oleh iklim adalah besar butir. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji hubungan antara besar butir dengan variabilitas iklim menggunakan sampel core GM01-2010-TJ22 dari Muara Gembong, Teluk Jakarta, muara sungai Citarum. Sampel core diambil pada tahun 2010 dengan menggunakan Kapal Riset Geomarin I oleh Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan Geologi Kelautan (P3GL). Pengukuran besar butir dilakukan dengan menggunakan Mastersizer 2000. Hasil pengukuran ditampilkan dalam seri waktu dari tahun 2001 sampai 2010. Hasil analisis besar butir sampel sedimen dikorelasikan secara statistik dengan fenomena musiman (monsun), tahunan dan antar tahun (El Niño/La Niña dan Dipole Mode). Verifikasi data dilakukan dengan menggunakan data sekunder temperatur permukaan laut dari citra satelit di sekitar lokasi sampel dan data curah hujan di Bekasi. Hasil verifikasi menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan curah hujan di sekitar daerah hilir Sungai Citarum diikuti dengan penurunan temperatur permukaan laut dan peningkatan ukuran rata-rata besar butir. Hasil yang didapat dalam uji statistika menunjukkan bahwa perubahan ukuran besar butir sampel sedimen di Muara Gembong memiliki korelasi signifikan dengan Multivariate ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) Index (MEI), Ocean Niño Index (ONI), Dipole Mode Index (DMI) dan Australian Monsoon Index (AUSMI). Hasil tersebut menunjukkan bahwa besar butir sedimen dasar laut potensial digunakan untuk mengetahui variabilitas iklim di sekitar Teluk Jakarta.

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