Long range forecasts of the numbers of Helicoverpa punctigera and H. armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Australia using the Southern Oscillation Index and the Sea Surface Temperature

2000 ◽  
Vol 90 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
D.A. Maelzer ◽  
M.P. Zalucki
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Pest Management ◽  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Multiple Regressions ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Trap Catches

The use of long-term forecasts of pest pressure is central to better pest management. We relate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to long-term light-trap catches of the two key moth pests of Australian agriculture, Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hübner), at Narrabri, New South Wales over 11 years, and for H. punctigera only at Turretfield, South Australia over 22 years. At Narrabri, the size of the first spring generation of both species was significantly correlated with the SOI in certain months, sometimes up to 15 months before the date of trapping. Differences in the SOI and SST between significant months were used to build composite variables in multiple regressions which gave fitted values of the trap catches to less than 25% of the observed values. The regressions suggested that useful forecasts of both species could be made 6–15 months ahead. The influence of the two weather variables on trap catches of H. punctigera at Turretfield were not as strong as at Narrabri, probably because the SOI was not as strongly related to rainfall in southern Australia as it is in eastern Australia. The best fits were again given by multiple regressions with SOI plus SST variables, to within 40% of the observed values. The reliability of both variables as predictors of moth numbers may be limited by the lack of stability in the SOI-rainfall correlation over the historical record. As no other data set is available to test the regressions, they can only be tested by future use. The use of long-term forecasts in pest management is discussed, and preliminary analyses of other long sets of insect numbers suggest that the Southern Oscillation Index may be a useful predictor of insect numbers in other parts of the world.

scholarly journals Model Vector Autoregressive Exogenous dan Aplikasinya pada Curah Hujan Kota Makassar

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 108
Author(s):  
S. Sukarna ◽  
Wahidah Sanusi ◽  
Serly Diliyanti Restu Ningsih
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Dipole Mode ◽  
Rainfall Forecasting ◽  
Dipole Mode Index ◽  
Mode Index

Jenis penelitian ini adalah penelitian terapan yang bertujuan untuk meramalkan curah hujan di Kota Makassar dengan menggunakan model VARX. Model VARX dikembangkan dari model VAR dengan menambahkan faktor eksogen yang mempengaruhi curah hujan seperti Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Nino 3.4, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), dan Dipole Mode Index (DMI). Data curah hujan yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah data curah hujan bulanan di Kota Makassar dari tahun 1987-2016 di tiga stasiun yaitu Panaikang, Paotere, dan Biring Romang sebagai faktor endogen. Data ini diperoleh dari Balai Besar Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BBMKG) Wilayah IV Makassar. Pembentukan model VARX melalui beberapa tahap yaitu: uji stasioneritas, penentuan panjang lag optimal, uji kausalitas, diagnostik model, pembentukan model VARX dan peramalan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa rata-rata puncak curah hujan di Kota Makassar terjadi di bulan Maret kemudian turun secara eksponensial. Pada bulan Mei peluang terjadinya hujan sangat sedikit. Model yang didapat pada penelitian ini layak digunakan untuk meramalkan curah hujan pada periode berikutnya.Kata Kunci: Model VARX, model VAR, curah hujan, peramalan.This type of research is applied research that aims to predict rainfall in Makassar city VARX model using. The model was developed from the VARX model VAR by adding exogenous factors that influence the precipitation like Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Nino 3.4, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Dipole Mode Index (DMI). Rainfall data used in this researrchis the monthly rainfall data in Makassar city from 1987-2016 year on three stations, namely Panaikang, Paotere, and Biring Romang as endogenous factors. This data is retrieved from the Great Hall the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Region IV Makassar. VARX model formation through several stages, namely : test stasioneritas, the determination of the optimal lag length, test causality, diagnostic models, the establishment of the model of forecasting and VARX. The result showed that the average peak rainfall in Makassar city occurred in March and then come down exponentially. In May the chance of occurrence of very little rain.The model obtained in this study deserves to be used to predict rainfall in the next period.Keywords: Model VARX, model VAR, rainfall, forecasting

scholarly journals Analisis Spasial Pengaruh Dinamika Suhu Muka Laut Terhadap Distribusi Curah Hujan di Sulawesi Utara

Jurnal MIPA ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Febriany Florence Rey ◽  
Seni H. J. Tongkukut ◽  
Wandayantolis .
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Correlation Method ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
North Sulawesi ◽  
Rain Gauge Network

Telah dilakukan analisis terhadap distribusi curah hujan yang dipengaruhi oleh dinamika suhu muka laut untuk mengetahui hubungan distribusi curah hujan dan dinamika suhu muka laut di Sulawesi Utara, serta telah dibuat peta spasial hubungan distribusi curah hujan dengan dinamika suhu muka laut menggunakan ArcMap 9.3. Analisis yang dilakukan menggunakan data curah hujan bulanan selama 10 tahun dari 5 stasiun BMKG dan 10 pos hujan kerjasama di Sulawesi Utara, dan data dinamika suhu muka laut berdasarkan nilai Indeks Osilasi Selatan dengan metode korelasi. Hasil penelitian diperoleh nilai korelasi positif antara 0,50 hingga 0,90 terjadi pada periode tiga bulanan yaitu Agustus-September-Oktober pada seluruh wilayah pengamatan.Analysis of the precipitation that caused by the dynamics of sea surface temperature has been made to find the correlation between the precipitation and the dynamics of sea surface temperature, with its spatial map of the correlation between precipitation and the dynamics of sea surface temperature using ArcMap 9.3. The analysis use the monthly rainfall data for 10 years from 5 BMKG Stations and 10 rain-gauge network in North Sulawesi, and Southern Oscillation Index monthly value using correlation method. The result of this research is the positive correlation between 1,50 to 0,90 occur in the period of August-September-October.

scholarly journals ANALISIS KEJADIAN EL NINO DAN PENGARUHNYA TERHADAP INTENSITAS CURAH HUJAN DI WILAYAH JABODETABEK (Studi Kasus : Periode Puncak Musim Hujan Tahun 2015/2016)

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 65
Author(s):  
Ardila Yananto ◽  
Rini Mariana Sibarani
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

IntisariBeberapa lembaga riset dunia dan badan-badan meteorologi beberapa negara di dunia menyatakan adanya kejadian El Nino Tahun 2015 terus berlanjut hingga tahun 2016. Adanya kejadian El Nino tersebut secara umum akan mempengarui intensitas curah hujan di sebagian besar wilayah Indonesia termasuk wilayah Jabodetabek. Analisis kejadian El Nino Tahun 2015/2016 dilakukan dengan menganalisis nilai NINO 3.4 SST Index, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), pola sebaran suhu permukaan laut (Sea Surface Temperature) dan juga gradient wind di Samudra Pasifik Tropis. Sedangkan Analisis Curah Hujan dilakukan dengan menggunakan data TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission). Dari penelitian ini dapat diketahui bahwa berdasarkan parameter NINO 3.4 SST Index dan Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) pada pertengahan Tahun 2015 hingga awal Tahun 2016 telah terjadi fenomana El Nino pada level kuat, adanya peningkatan suhu permukaan laut di sebagian besar wilayah Indonesia sejak Bulan November 2015 yang diikuti dengan penurunan indeks Dipole Mode hingga menjadi bernilai negatif (-) sejak awal Tahun 2016 serta dengan adanya peralihan Angin Muson Timur ke Angin Muson Barat di wilayah Indonesia telah menyebabkan peningkatan curah hujan yang cukup signifikan dalam batas normal di wilayah Jabodetabek pada puncak musim hujan Tahun 2015/2016 (November 2015 - Februari 2016) walaupun pada Bulan November 2015 hingga Februari 2016 tersebut masih berada pada level El Nino kuat.   AbstractVarious research institutions in the world that work in the field of Meteorology and Climatology predicted an El Nino events in 2015 continued into 2016. The El Nino events phenomenon in general will affect to intensity of the rainfall in most parts of Indonesia, including the Greater Jakarta area. El Nino events phenomenon Analysis by Nino 3.4 SST index, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and gradient wind in the Tropical Pacific Ocean. While rainfall intensity analysis using TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) data. From this research it is known that based on the parameters NINO 3.4 SST index and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), it is known that there was a strong El Nino event occurred in mid-2015 to early 2016, the increase of sea surface temperature in most parts of Indonesia since November 2015 followed by declines Dipole Mode Index to be negative (-) since the beginning 2016 as well as the shift East monsoon to West monsoon in Indonesia has led to significant rainfall increased within normal limits in the Greater Jakarta area at the peak period of the rainy season 2015/2016 (November 2015 - February 2016) although in November 2015 until February 2016 El Nino event is still at the strong level.  

scholarly journals Global wave number-4 pattern in the southern subtropical sea surface temperature

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Balaji Senapati ◽  
Mihir K. Dash ◽  
Swadhin K. Behera
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Wave Number ◽  
The South ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Zonal Wavenumber ◽  
Sst Anomaly

AbstractExploratory analysis using empirical orthogonal function revealed the presence of a stationary zonal wavenumber-4 (W4) pattern in the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the southern subtropics (20°S–55°S). The signal over the Southern subtropics is seasonally phase-locked to the austral summer and persists up to mid-autumn. Thermodynamic coupling of atmosphere and the upper ocean helps in generating the W4 pattern, which later terminates due to the breaking of that coupled feedback. It is found that the presence of anomalous SST due to W4 mode in the surrounding of Australia affects the rainfall over the continent by modulating the local atmospheric circulation. During positive phase of W4 event, the presence of cold SST anomaly over the south-eastern and -western side of Australia creates an anomalous divergence circulation. This favours the moisture transport towards south-eastern Australia, resulting in more rainfall in February. The scenario reverses in case of a negative W4 event. There is also a difference of one month between the occurrence of positive and negative W4 peaks. This asymmetry seems to be responsible for the weak SST signal to the South of Australia. Correlation analysis suggests that the W4 pattern in SST is independent of other natural variabilities such as Southern Annular Mode, and Indian Ocean Dipole as well as a rather weak relationship with El Niño/Southern Oscillation.

scholarly journals Interannual Variability and Trends in Sea Surface Temperature, Lower and Middle Atmosphere Temperature at Different Latitudes for 1980–2019

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 454
Author(s):  
Andrew R. Jakovlev ◽  
Sergei P. Smyshlyaev ◽  
Vener Y. Galin
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The Impact

The influence of sea-surface temperature (SST) on the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere temperature in the tropical, middle, and polar latitudes is studied for 1980–2019 based on the MERRA2, ERA5, and Met Office reanalysis data, and numerical modeling with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) of the lower and middle atmosphere. The variability of SST is analyzed according to Met Office and ERA5 data, while the variability of atmospheric temperature is investigated according to MERRA2 and ERA5 data. Analysis of sea surface temperature trends based on reanalysis data revealed that a significant positive SST trend of about 0.1 degrees per decade is observed over the globe. In the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, the trend (about 0.2 degrees per decade) is 2 times higher than the global average, and 5 times higher than in the Southern Hemisphere (about 0.04 degrees per decade). At polar latitudes, opposite SST trends are observed in the Arctic (positive) and Antarctic (negative). The impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon on the temperature of the lower and middle atmosphere in the middle and polar latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres is discussed. To assess the relative influence of SST, CO2, and other greenhouse gases’ variability on the temperature of the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere, numerical calculations with a CCM were performed for several scenarios of accounting for the SST and carbon dioxide variability. The results of numerical experiments with a CCM demonstrated that the influence of SST prevails in the troposphere, while for the stratosphere, an increase in the CO2 content plays the most important role.

Humboldt penguins outmanoeuvring El Nino

2000 ◽  
Vol 203 (15) ◽  
pp. 2311-2322 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Culik ◽  
J. Hennicke ◽  
T. Martin
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Chlorophyll A ◽  
Wind Direction ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Dive Duration ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Day Length

We satellite-tracked five Humboldt penguins during the strong 1997/98 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from their breeding island Pan de Azucar (26 degrees 09′S, 70 degrees 40′W) in Northern Chile and related their activities at sea to satellite-derived information on sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), wind direction and speed, chlorophyll a concentrations and statistical data on fishery landings. We found that Humboldt penguins migrated by up to 895 km as marine productivity decreased. The total daily dive duration was highly correlated with SSTA, ranging from 3.1 to 12.5 h when the water was at its warmest (+4 degrees C). Birds travelled between 2 and 116 km every day, travelling further when SSTA was highest. Diving depths (maximum 54 m), however, were not increased with respect to previous years. Two penguins migrated south and, independently of each other, located an area of high chlorophyll a concentration 150 km off the coast. Humboldt penguins seem to use day length, temperature gradients, wind direction and olfaction to adapt to changing environmental conditions and to find suitable feeding grounds. This makes Humboldt penguins biological in situ detectors of highly productive marine areas, with a potential use in the verification of trends detected by remote sensors on board satellites.

scholarly journals Long term trends in the sea surface temperature of the Black Sea

Ocean Science ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 491-501 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. I. Shapiro ◽  
D. L. Aleynik ◽  
L. D. Mee
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
The North ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Cooling Trend

Abstract. There is growing understanding that recent deterioration of the Black Sea ecosystem was partly due to changes in the marine physical environment. This study uses high resolution 0.25° climatology to analyze sea surface temperature variability over the 20th century in two contrasting regions of the sea. Results show that the deep Black Sea was cooling during the first three quarters of the century and was warming in the last 15–20 years; on aggregate there was a statistically significant cooling trend. The SST variability over the Western shelf was more volatile and it does not show statistically significant trends. The cooling of the deep Black Sea is at variance with the general trend in the North Atlantic and may be related to the decrease of westerly winds over the Black Sea, and a greater influence of the Siberian anticyclone. The timing of the changeover from cooling to warming coincides with the regime shift in the Black Sea ecosystem.

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