On the comparative importance of fire danger rating indices and their integration with spatial and temporal variables for predicting daily human-caused fire occurrences in Spain

Human-caused forest fires are common in Mediterranean countries. Forest fire management agencies customarily estimate daily fire loads by using meteorological fire danger rating indices, based on variables registered daily by weather stations. This paper is focussed on the evaluation of the relative performance of a comprehensive set of commonly used fire weather indices by developing holistic daily fire occurrence models in Spain involving also other topographic, fuel and human-related geographic factors. The data consisted of historical records of daily fire occurrences, daily weather data and geographic characteristics for the peninsular territory of Spain in a 10-km-spatial resolution grid, for the period from 2002 to 2005. The prediction units were 10 × 10-km-grid cells but in order to take into account the spatial variation in relationships between explanatory variables and historical occurrences, Spain was divided into 53 ecoregions and a logistic regression model was developed for each one of these regions. The explanatory variables included in the models illustrated which weather and geographic factors primarily affected daily human-caused fires in the ecoregions. The validation of the estimated ignition probabilities with the fire occurrences registered during 2005, reserved for independently testing the model’s predictive capability, resulted in values of total percentage correctly predicted varying from 47.4 to 82.6%.

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Midterm Fire Danger Prediction Using Satellite Imagery and Auxiliary Thematic Layers

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs11232786 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (23) ◽

pp. 2786 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Alexandra Stefanidou ◽

Ioannis Z. Gitas ◽

Dimitris Stavrakoudis ◽

Georgios Eftychidis

Keyword(s):

Time Series Data ◽

Fire Danger ◽

Series Data ◽

Prevention Measures ◽

Imaging Spectrometer ◽

Effective Prevention ◽

Response Planning ◽

Forest Fire Management ◽

Mediterranean Countries ◽

Fire Ignition

Wildfires constitute a significant environmental pressure in Europe, particularly in the Mediterranean countries. The prediction of fire danger is essential for sustainable forest fire management since it provides critical information for designing effective prevention measures and for facilitating response planning to potential fire events. This study presents a new midterm fire danger index (MFDI) using satellite and auxiliary geographic data. The proposed methodology is based on estimations of a dry fuel connectivity measure calculated from the Moderate Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) time-series data, which are combined with biophysical and topological variables to obtain accurate fire ignition danger predictions for the following eight days. The index’s accuracy was assessed using historical fire data from four large wildfires in Greece. The results showcase that the index predicted high fire danger (≥3 on a scale within [ 1 , 4 ] ) within the identified fire ignition areas, proving its strong potential for deriving reliable estimations of fire danger, despite the fact that no meteorological measurements or forecasts are used for its calculation.

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INFLUENCE OF THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ON FOREST FIRES OCCURRENCES IN LICHINGA DISTRICT, NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE

FLORESTA ◽

10.5380/rf.v45i3.33742 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 45 (3) ◽

pp. 577 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Aires Afonso Mbanze ◽

Antonio Carlos Batista ◽

Alexandre França Tetto ◽

Henrique Soares Koehler ◽

Jose Bernardo Manteiga

Keyword(s):

Forest Fires ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Great Influence ◽

Meteorological Conditions ◽

Meteorological Station ◽

Weather Data ◽

Monitoring And Control ◽

Tukey Test ◽

Daily Weather Data ◽

And Control

AbstractThe aim of this study was to assess the influence of meteorological conditions on the fire occurrences in forest stands of Lichinga district, in the period from 2010 to 2012. Data about fire occurrences records of the district of Lichinga and two others close districts (Lago and Sanga) were provided by the Center for Monitoring and Control of Forest Fires (CCMIF) of the company Chikweti. Daily weather data: temperature, rainfall and relative humidity of the same period, recorded at 13:00 PM, by the meteorological station of the Institute of Agronomic Research of Mozambique (IIAM) in Lichinga district were also provided to this work. Meteorological data were submitted to regression analysis and Tukey test. The results showed a significant variation in temperature and humidity on both tests. The overlapping of fire occurrences and meteorological variables, suggested a great influence of the meteorological conditions in the occurrence of fires, mainly due to the very long dry periods. In 2010 there was a delay in the occurrence of fires; this was related to the rainy season which was slightly longer. September and October was the months that recorded the highest number of fire occurrences throughout the studied period.ResumoInfluência das condições meteorológicas na ocorrência dos incêndios florestais no distrito de Lichinga, norte de Moçambique. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a influência das variáveis meteorológicas na ocorrência de incêndios em povoamentos florestais no distrito de Lichinga, no período de 2010 a 2012. Para tal, foram analisados os registros de ocorrências de incêndios do distrito de Lichinga e de outros dois distritos vizinhos (Lago e Sanga), disponibilizados pelo Centro de Controle e Monitoramento de Incêndios Florestais (CCMIF) da empresa Chikweti Forest of Niassa, e dados meteorológicos diários de temperatura (máxima e mínima), precipitação e umidade relativa, do mesmo período, registrados às 13 horas, pela estação meteorológica do Instituto de Investigação Agronômica de Moçambique em Lichinga (IIAM-Lichinga). Os dados meteorológicos foram submetidos ao teste de análise de regressão e ao teste de Tukey, tendo sido observado uma variação significativa da temperatura e umidade em ambos os testes. A sobreposição das ocorrências dos incêndios com as variáveis meteorológicas demostrou uma grande influênca dessas variáveis na ocorrência dos incêndios, principalmente devido aos períodos secos prolongados. No ano 2010 observou-se um atraso na ocorrência dos incêndios, devido ao período chuvoso que foi ligeiramente mais longo. Os meses que registraram maior número de ocorrências em todo o período foram setembro e outubro.Palavras-chave: Povoamentos florestais; variáveis meteorológicas; prevenção de incêndios florestais.

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Prototipe Sistem Peringatan Dini Kebakaran Hutan Berbasis Parameter Cuaca

Wahana Fisika ◽

10.17509/wafi.v2i2.9375 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

pp. 65

Author(s):

Hapsoro Agung Nugroho ◽

Chinthya Margaretta S

Keyword(s):

Wind Speed ◽

Early Warning ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Fire Danger ◽

World Meteorological Organization ◽

Rating System ◽

Weather Data ◽

Fuel Moisture ◽

Fire Danger Rating System ◽

Sd Card

Sistem peringatan dini kebakaran hutan memiliki peranan penting untuk mengendalikan secara dini kerusakan hutan. Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika mempunyai tugas pokok, salah satunya yaitu memberikan peringatan dini kebakaran hutan menggunakan metode Fire Danger Rating System (FDRS) dimana data parameter cuaca sebagai masukan, masih terbatas pada lokasi tertentu. Penelitian ini merancang dan membangun prototipe yang menghasilkan skala Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) sebagai tingkat kemudahan terjadinya kebakaran di suatu lokasi. Perancangan prototipe ini menggunakan mikrokontroler ATMega328, sensor suhu dan kelembaban udara DHT22, penakar hujan jenis tipping bucket, sensor arah dan kecepatan angin JL_FS2, dan micro SD Card sebagai penyimpan data. Hasil kalibrasi sensor menunjukkan adanya selisih nilai sensor yang telah memenuhi nilai toleransi dari World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Pengujian setiap sensor menghasilkan nilai standar deviasi kurang dari 2.5 dengan rata- rata selisih pada sensor suhu +0.5oC, kelembaban relatif +6%, dan kecepatan angin +2 m/s. Setiap data yang diolah dapat ditampilkan dan disimpan secara otomatis oleh sistem. Sistem menampilkan secara realtime dan memberikan informasi peringatan dini kebakaran hutan. Kata Kunci : Kebakaran Hutan; FDRS; FFMC; Tipping BucketForest fire early warning system has an important role for the control of early damage to the forest. Indonesia Agency of Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics had a duty, one that is giving early warning forest fires using the method of Fire Danger Rating System (FDRS) where weather data as the input parameters, are still limited on site certain. The study design and build a prototype that generates scale Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) as the level of ease the onset of fire in any given location. This prototype design using the ATMega328 microcontroller, sensor temperature and humidity DHT22, tipping bucket type of rain gauge, direction and wind speed sensor JL_FS2, and micro SD Card as the data storage. The results showed a difference in sensor calibration value of sensor meets the tolerance values of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Test each sensor shows a value less than 2.5 standard deviation by the average difference in temperature sensors + 0.5 oC, + 6% relative humidity, and wind speed + 2 m/s. Data can be displayed and stored automatically by the system. The system displays in realtime and provide early warning information forest fires. Keywords : Forest Fire; FDRS; FFMC; Tipping Bucket

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Lightning and fire weather in eastern coastal fynbos shrublands: seasonality and long-term trends

International Journal of Wildland Fire ◽

10.1071/wf11167 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 22 (3) ◽

pp. 288 ◽

Cited By ~ 21

Author(s):

Tineke Kraaij ◽

Richard M. Cowling ◽

Brian W. van Wilgen

Keyword(s):

Fire Regime ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Fire Danger ◽

Weather Data ◽

Lightning Strike ◽

The South ◽

South Eastern ◽

Daily Weather Data ◽

Cloud To Ground Lightning ◽

Season Of Burn

Daily weather data (since 1939) from four localities in the south-eastern, coastal part of the Cape Floral Kingdom (‘south-eastern-CFK’) were used to calculate daily fire danger indices (FDIs). Cloud-to-ground lightning strike distributions (2006–10) were explored for geographical and temporal trends. Low or moderate fire danger conditions were the norm year round, and even large fires occurred under these conditions. Lightning occurred throughout the landscape at fairly low densities (mean = 0.4 strikes km–2 year–1) and in all seasons, increasing somewhat during summer. Lightning presence increased with increasing rainfall, relative humidity, temperature and wind speed. Lightning seasonality in the south-eastern-CFK did not differ from that in the south-western-CFK. Our results provide evidence of a largely aseasonal fire regime in eastern coastal fynbos shrublands: FDIs peaked in winter (due to low rainfall and hot, dry katabatic winds) but were not associated with a winter fire regime; lightning and the co-occurrence of lightning and elevated FDIs were aseasonal and were correlated with the incidence of lightning-ignited fires throughout the year. The implication for management is that season of burn is largely unimportant. Mean annual FDI increased significantly over the study period, a trend which is likely to manifest in increased frequency and severity of fire, some of which has already been observed.

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An Analysis to Predict Forest Fire Danger and Fire Spread

Heat Transfer: Volume 2 ◽

10.1115/ht2003-47357 ◽

2003 ◽

Author(s):

Kohyu Satoh ◽

Shiro Kitamura ◽

Kunio Kuwahara ◽

K. T. Yang

Keyword(s):

Forest Fire ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Intelligent System ◽

Fire Spread ◽

Fire Danger ◽

Weather Data ◽

Fire Weather ◽

The Us ◽

Weather Stations ◽

Forest Fire Danger

Forest fires are of common occurrence all over the world, causing severe damages to valuable natural environment and loss of human lives. In order to reduce the damages by forest fires, it is useful to utilize a system, which can predict the occurrence of forest fires and the spread of fires. Well known is a system in USA, called NFDRS to predict forest fire occurrence and FARSITE to predict fire growth, based on the fire weather information taken from a network, combined with forest fuel conditions and land topography data, and processed by an algorithm to generate the various fire danger indices. In Japan the number of forest fires is roughly 3,000 per year, which is 1/30 times compared with USA, and there are very few fires exceeding 1000 ha burnt area, hence there has existed scant demand for this type of intelligent system. Although recently there is an increasing demand for such a system in Japan, the US system for forest-fire prediction is however not applicable to Japan, since the forest topology and weather conditions between Japan and USA are far different. Moreover, many fire weather stations have been installed in the US forests, but in Japan no such fire weather stations are installed in forests. Thus, as a first step to develop an intelligent system for Japan, we have analyzed the fundamentals of forest fire danger rating and the fire spread, based on the weather data and other information on forest fires. The objective of this study is to examine how the fundamentals, based on analyzing the past fire occurrences and CFD simulations particularly on “Katunuma Fire”, can predict the occurrence of forest fires and the spread of forest fires.

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Distribution and incidence of viruses in Irish seed potato crops

Irish Journal of Agricultural and Food Research ◽

10.1515/ijafr-2015-0011 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 54 (2) ◽

pp. 98-106 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

F. Hutton ◽

J.H. Spink ◽

D. Griffin ◽

S. Kildea ◽

D. Bonner ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Potato Virus ◽

Significant Proportion ◽

Potato Production ◽

Weather Data ◽

Management Approach ◽

Potato Seed ◽

Virus Diseases ◽

Aphid Control ◽

Daily Weather Data ◽

Potato Crops

Abstract Virus diseases are of key importance in potato production and in particular for the production of disease-free potato seed. However, there is little known about the frequency and distribution of potato virus diseases in Ireland. Despite a large number of samples being tested each year, the data has never been collated either within or across years. Information from all known potato virus testing carried out in the years 2006–2012 by the Department of Agriculture Food and Marine was collated to give an indication of the distribution and incidence of potato virus in Ireland. It was found that there was significant variation between regions, varieties, years and seed classes. A definition of daily weather data suitable for aphid flight was developed, which accounted for a significant proportion of the variation in virus incidence between years. This use of weather data to predict virus risk could be developed to form the basis of an integrated pest management approach for aphid control in Irish potato crops.

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A method for simulating risk profiles of wheat yield in data-sparse conditions

The Journal of Agricultural Science ◽

10.1017/s0021859621000253 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-12

Author(s):

G. Bracho-Mujica ◽

P.T. Hayman ◽

V.O. Sadras ◽

B. Ostendorf

Keyword(s):

Reference Site ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Weather Data ◽

Climate Data ◽

High Quality ◽

Risk Profiles ◽

Record Length ◽

Daily Weather Data ◽

Study Sites

Abstract Process-based crop models are a robust approach to assess climate impacts on crop productivity and long-term viability of cropping systems. However, these models require high-quality climate data that cannot always be met. To overcome this issue, the current research tested a simple method for scaling daily data and extrapolating long-term risk profiles of modelled crop yields. An extreme situation was tested, in which high-quality weather data was only available at one single location (reference site: Snowtown, South Australia, 33.78°S, 138.21°E), and limited weather data was available for 49 study sites within the Australian grain belt (spanning from 26.67 to 38.02°S of latitude, and 115.44 to 151.85°E of longitude). Daily weather data were perturbed with a delta factor calculated as the difference between averaged climate data from the reference site and the study sites. Risk profiles were built using a step-wise combination of adjustments from the most simple (adjusted series of precipitation only) to the most detailed (adjusted series of precipitation, temperatures and solar radiation), and a variable record length (from 10 to 100 years). The simplest adjustment and shortest record length produced bias of modelled yield grain risk profiles between −10 and 10% in 41% of the sites, which increased to 86% of the study sites with the most detailed adjustment and longest record (100 years). Results indicate that the quality of the extrapolation of risk profiles was more sensitive to the number of adjustments applied rather than the record length per se.

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Impact of Extreme Weather on Healthcare Utilization by People with HIV in Metropolitan Miami

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18052442 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (5) ◽

pp. 2442

Author(s):

Daniel Samano ◽

Shubhayu Saha ◽

Taylor Corbin Kot ◽

JoNell E. Potter ◽

Lunthita M. Duthely

Keyword(s):

Relative Risk ◽

The United States ◽

Extreme Weather ◽

South Florida ◽

Heat Index ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Weather Data ◽

Steady Increase ◽

Daily Weather Data ◽

The Impact

Extreme weather events (EWE) are expected to increase as climate change intensifies, leaving coastal regions exposed to higher risks. South Florida has the highest HIV infection rate in the United States, and disruptions in clinic utilization due to extreme weather conditions could affect adherence to treatment and increase community transmission. The objective of this study was to identify the association between EWE and HIV-clinic attendance rates at a large academic medical system serving the Miami-Dade communities. The following methods were utilized: (1) Extreme heat index (EHI) and extreme precipitation (EP) were identified using daily observations from 1990–2019 that were collected at the Miami International Airport weather station located 3.6 miles from the studied HIV clinics. Data on hurricanes, coastal storms and flooding were collected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storms Database (NOAA) for Miami-Dade County. (2) An all-HIV clinic registry identified scheduled daily visits during the study period (hurricane seasons from 2017–2019). (3) Daily weather data were linked to the all-HIV clinic registry, where patients’ ‘no-show’ status was the variable of interest. (4) A time-stratified, case crossover model was used to estimate the relative risk of no-show on days with a high heat index, precipitation, and/or an extreme natural event. A total of 26,444 scheduled visits were analyzed during the 383-day study period. A steady increase in the relative risk of ‘no-show’ was observed in successive categories, with a 14% increase observed on days when the heat index was extreme compared to days with a relatively low EHI, 13% on days with EP compared to days with no EP, and 10% higher on days with a reported extreme weather event compared to days without such incident. This study represents a novel approach to improving local understanding of the impacts of EWE on the HIV-population’s utilization of healthcare, particularly when the frequency and intensity of EWE is expected to increase and disproportionately affect vulnerable populations. More studies are needed to understand the impact of EWE on routine outpatient settings.

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