Visual assessments of fuel loads are poorly related to destructively sampled fuel loads in eucalypt forests

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (11) ◽  
pp. 1193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liubov Volkova ◽  
Andrew L. Sullivan ◽  
Stephen H. Roxburgh ◽  
Christopher J. Weston

Fire managers around the world commonly use visual assessment of forest fuels to aid prediction of fire behaviour and plan for hazard reduction burning. In Australia, fuel hazard assessment guides also allow conversion of visual assessments to indicative fuel loads, which is essential for some rate of spread models and calculation of fireline intensity or emissions. The strength of correlation between fuel hazard and destructively sampled (directly measured) fuel load was tested using a comprehensive dataset of >500 points from across a range of eucalypt forests in Australia. Overall, there was poor correlation between the assigned fuel hazard rating and measured biomass for surface, near-surface and elevated fuel components, with a clear tendency for these systems to under-predict fuel load at low hazard ratings, and over-predict it at high hazard ratings. Visual assessment of surface fuels was not statistically different from a random allocation of hazard level. The considerable overlap in fuel load between hazard ratings at higher ranges suggests the need to reduce the number of hazard classes to provide clearer differentiation of fuel hazard. To accurately assess forest fuel condition, improvements in fuel hazard descriptions and calibration of visual assessment with destructively measured fuels is essential.

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 633 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin S. Crotteau ◽  
Christopher R. Keyes ◽  
Elaine K. Sutherland ◽  
David K. Wright ◽  
Joel M. Egan

Variable-retention harvesting in lodgepole pine offers an alternative to conventional, even-aged management. This harvesting technique promotes structural complexity and age-class diversity in residual stands and promotes resilience to disturbance. We examined fuel loads and potential fire behaviour 12 years after two modes of variable-retention harvesting (dispersed and aggregated retention patterns) crossed by post-harvest prescribed fire (burned or unburned) in central Montana. Results characterise 12-year post-treatment fuel loads. We found greater fuel load reduction in treated than untreated stands, namely in the 10- and 100-h classes (P = 0.002 and 0.049 respectively). Reductions in 1-h (P < 0.001), 10-h (P = 0.008) and 1000-h (P = 0.014) classes were greater in magnitude for unburned than burned treatments. Fire behaviour modelling incorporated the regenerating seedling cohort into the surface fuel complex. Our analysis indicates greater surface fireline intensity in treated than untreated stands (P < 0.001), and in unburned over burned stands (P = 0.001) in dry, windy weather. Although potential fire behaviour in treated stands is predicted to be more erratic, within-stand structural variability reduces probability of crown fire spread. Overall, results illustrate trade-offs between potential fire attributes that should be acknowledged with variable-retention harvesting.


2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
JS Gould ◽  
WL McCaw ◽  
NP Cheney ◽  
PF Ellis ◽  
S Matthews

An effective response to bushfires relies on accurate predictions of fire behaviour, particularly the rate of spread, intensity and ‘spotting’. This field guide has been developed to provide a systematic method for assessing fuel hazard and predicting potential fire behaviour in dry eucalypt forest. It will assist in making vital decisions that ensure the protection of fire crews and the community. This guide integrates Project Vesta research findings with the Victorian Overall Fuel Hazard Guide and is applicable to dry eucalypt forests throughout southern Australia. Fuel assessment is based on the hazard scoring system employed during Project Vesta which investigated the effects of fuel age and understorey vegetation structure on fire behaviour in these forests. Information provided in this guide can be used to: Define and identify different fuel layers and components of fuel structure and hazard; Determine the hazard score of surface and near-surface fuel layers and the height of the near-surface fuel for fire spread prediction; Determine elevated fuel height for flame height prediction; and determine surface fuel hazard score and bark hazard score for spotting distance prediction. The Field Guide provides tables to predict the potential rate of spread of a bushfire burning in dry eucalypt forest under summer conditions, and can also be used to predict flame height and maximum spotting distance. The guide also allows users to determine the moisture content of fine dead fuels throughout the day, and to account for the effect of slope on the rate of spread of a fire.


Fire Ecology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel E. Nation ◽  
Heather D. Alexander ◽  
Geoff Denny ◽  
Jennifer K. McDaniel ◽  
Alison K. Paulson

Abstract Background Prescribed fire is increasingly used to restore and maintain upland oak (Quercus L. spp.) ecosystems in the central and eastern US. However, little is known about how prescribed fire affects recently fallen acorns under different fine fuel loads, which can vary with stand composition and basal area, burn season, and fire frequency. We conducted plot-level (1 m2) burns in an upland oak stand in northern Mississippi, USA, during December 2018, using single (i.e., ambient), double, and triple fine fuel loads, representative of those in nearby unburned and recently fire-treated, closed-canopy stands. Pre burn, we placed 30 acorns each of white oak (Quercus alba L.) and Shumard oak (Quercus shumardii Buckley) ~1 cm below the litter surface in five plots of each fuel treatment. Immediately post burn, we planted unburned and burned acorns in a greenhouse. After ~50% of each species’ unburned acorns germinated, we measured percent germination and height, basal diameter, and leaf number of germinating seedlings weekly for 11 weeks. Then, we harvested seedlings to determine above- and belowground biomass. Results The single fuel treatment reduced acorn germination rates of both species to ~40% compared to ~88% in unburned acorns. When burned in double and triple fuel loads, acorns of both species had a <5% germination rate. There was no difference in basal diameter, leaf number, or biomass of seedlings from burned versus unburned acorns for either species. However, seedlings originating from burned acorns of both species were ~11% shorter than those from unburned acorns. Thus, both species responded similarly to fuel load treatments. Conclusions Acorns of both species exhibited greater survival with lower fine fuel loads, and consequently lower percent fuel consumption. Acorns germinating post fire generally produced seedlings with growth patterns similar to seedlings originating from unburned acorns. These findings indicate that regular, repeated prescribed fires or canopy reductions that limit fine fuel accumulation and create heterogeneous fuel beds are likely to increase acorn germination rates relative to unburned sites or those with recently introduced fire.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 261
Author(s):  
Francisco Mauro ◽  
Andrew T. Hudak ◽  
Patrick A. Fekety ◽  
Bryce Frank ◽  
Hailemariam Temesgen ◽  
...  

Airborne laser scanning (ALS) acquisitions provide piecemeal coverage across the western US, as collections are organized by local managers of individual project areas. In this study, we analyze different factors that can contribute to developing a regional strategy to use information from completed ALS data acquisitions and develop maps of multiple forest attributes in new ALS project areas in a rapid manner. This study is located in Oregon, USA, and analyzes six forest structural attributes for differences between: (1) synthetic (i.e., not-calibrated), and calibrated predictions, (2) parametric linear and semiparametric models, and (3) models developed with predictors computed for point clouds enclosed in the areas where field measurements were taken, i.e., “point-cloud predictors”, and models developed using predictors extracted from pre-rasterized layers, i.e., “rasterized predictors”. Forest structural attributes under consideration are aboveground biomass, downed woody biomass, canopy bulk density, canopy height, canopy base height, and canopy fuel load. Results from our study indicate that semiparametric models perform better than parametric models if no calibration is performed. However, the effect of the calibration is substantial in reducing the bias of parametric models but minimal for the semiparametric models and, once calibrations are performed, differences between parametric and semiparametric models become negligible for all responses. In addition, minimal differences between models using point-cloud predictors and models using rasterized predictors were found. We conclude that the approach that applies semiparametric models and rasterized predictors, which represents the easiest workflow and leads to the most rapid results, is justified with little loss in accuracy or precision even if no calibration is performed.


1986 ◽  
Vol 106 (2) ◽  
pp. 223-237 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. J. Kempster ◽  
J. P. Chadwick ◽  
D. D. Charles

SUMMARYCarcass data for 1053 steers from the Meat and Livestock Commission's beef breed evaluation programme were used to examine the relative precision of alternative fatness assessments for predicting carcass lean percentage. The data were from four trials and comprised both dairy-bred and suckler-bred cattle by a wide range of sire breeds.A visual assessment of carcass subcutaneous fat content to the nearest percentage unit (SFe) was the single most precise predictor both overall (residual S.d. = 2·28) and within breed (residual S.d. = 2·05). Precision was improved by the addition in multiple regression of the percentage perinephric and retroperitoneal fat (KKCF) in carcass, a visual score of the degree of marbling in the m. longissimus and selected fat thickness measurements taken by calipers on cut surfaces (residual S.d. = 2·11 (overall) and 1·90 (within breed)).When the best overall equation was applied to the breed means, there was substantial bias (predicted – actual carcass lean percentage). Biases ranged from +2·5 (purebred Canadian Holstein and Luing) to – 1·3 (Limousin crosses).Breeds differed significantly in carcass lean content when compared at equal levels of fatness measurements. The differences depended both on the precision with which the measurements predicted carcass lean content and the observed differences in carcass composition that existed before adjustments to equal fatness were made.The robustness of prediction equations was examined by applying them to independent sets of data (a total of 334 carcasses) from four other trials involving steers, heifers, cows and young bulls. Equations were stable for cattle of the same breed, sex and similar levels of fatness but important bias was found between more extreme types of cattle.


2015 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 723 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian J. Viner ◽  
Tim Jannik ◽  
Daniel Stone ◽  
Allan Hepworth ◽  
Luke Naeher ◽  
...  

Firefighters responding to wildland fires where surface litter and vegetation contain radiological contamination will receive a radiological dose by inhaling resuspended radioactive material in the smoke. This may increase their lifetime risk of contracting certain types of cancer. Using published data, we modelled hypothetical radionuclide emissions, dispersion and dose for 70th and 97th percentile environmental conditions and for average and high fuel loads at the Savannah River Site. We predicted downwind concentration and potential dose to firefighters for radionuclides of interest (137Cs, 238Pu, 90Sr and 210Po). Predicted concentrations exceeded dose guidelines in the base case scenario emissions of 1.0 × 107 Bq ha–1 for 238Pu at 70th percentile environmental conditions and average fuel load levels for both 4- and 14-h shifts. Under 97th percentile environmental conditions and high fuel loads, dose guidelines were exceeded for several reported cases for 90Sr, 238Pu and 210Po. The potential for exceeding dose guidelines was mitigated by including plume rise (>2 m s–1) or moving a small distance from the fire owing to large concentration gradients near the edge of the fire. This approach can quickly estimate potential dose from airborne radionuclides in wildland fire and assist decision-making to reduce firefighter exposure.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalie A. Kelsey ◽  
Ommo Hüppop ◽  
Franz Bairlein

Abstract Background Crossing open water instead of following the coast(line) is one way for landbirds to continue migration. However, depending on prevailing weather and the birds’ physiological conditions, it is also a risky choice. To date, the question remains as to which interplay between environmental and physiological conditions force landbirds to stop on remote islands. We hypothesise that unfavourable winds affect lean birds with low energy resources, while poor visibility affects all birds regardless of their fuel loads. Methods To test this hypothesis, we caught 1312 common blackbirds Turdus merula stopping over on Helgoland during autumn and spring migration. Arrival fuel load was measured using quantitative magnetic resonance technology. Weather parameters (wind and relative humidity as a proxy for visibility) were interpolated for the night before arrival. Further, we calculated whether caught individuals would have successfully crossed the North Sea instead of landing on Helgoland, depending on wind conditions. Results Both wind and relative humidity the night before arrival were correlated with arrival fuel load. After nights with strong headwinds, birds caught the following day were mostly lean, most of which would not have managed to cross the sea if they had not stopped on Helgoland. In contrast, fat birds that could have successfully travelled on were caught mainly after nights with high relative humidity (≥ 80%). Furthermore, the rate of presumably successful flights was lower due to wind: although only 9% of all blackbirds captured on Helgoland had insufficient fuel loads to allow safe onward migration in still air, real wind conditions would have prevented 30% of birds from successfully crossing the sea during autumn and 21% during spring migration. Conclusions We were able to decipher how physiological condition, wind and relative humidity partially force blackbirds to stop on a remote island. Adverse winds tend to affect lean birds with low energy resources, while poor visibility can affect blackbirds, regardless of whether the arrival fuel load was sufficient for onward flight. Our findings will help to understand different migratory strategies and explain further questions like migration timing.


2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (16) ◽  
pp. 4305-4320 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. T. Klosterman ◽  
K. Hufkens ◽  
J. M. Gray ◽  
E. Melaas ◽  
O. Sonnentag ◽  
...  

Abstract. Plant phenology regulates ecosystem services at local and global scales and is a sensitive indicator of global change. Estimates of phenophase transition dates, such as the start of spring or end of fall, can be derived from sensor-based time series, but must be interpreted in terms of biologically relevant events. We use the PhenoCam archive of digital repeat photography to implement a consistent protocol for visual assessment of canopy phenology at 13 temperate deciduous forest sites throughout eastern North America, and to perform digital image analysis for time-series-based estimation of phenophase transition dates. We then compare these results to remote sensing metrics of phenophase transition dates derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors. We present a new type of curve fit that uses a generalized sigmoid function to estimate phenology dates, and we quantify the statistical uncertainty of phenophase transition dates estimated using this method. Results show that the generalized sigmoid provides estimates of dates with less statistical uncertainty than other curve-fitting methods. Additionally, we find that dates derived from analysis of high-frequency PhenoCam imagery have smaller uncertainties than satellite remote sensing metrics of phenology, and that dates derived from the remotely sensed enhanced vegetation index (EVI) have smaller uncertainty than those derived from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Near-surface time-series estimates for the start of spring are found to closely match estimates derived from visual assessment of leaf-out, as well as satellite remote-sensing-derived estimates of the start of spring. However late spring and fall phenology metrics exhibit larger differences between near-surface and remote scales. Differences in late spring phenology between near-surface and remote scales are found to correlate with a landscape metric of deciduous forest cover. These results quantify the effect of landscape heterogeneity when aggregating to the coarser spatial scales of remote sensing, and demonstrate the importance of accurate curve fitting and vegetation index selection when analyzing and interpreting phenology time series.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (22) ◽  
pp. 3704
Author(s):  
Cecilia Alonso-Rego ◽  
Stéfano Arellano-Pérez ◽  
Carlos Cabo ◽  
Celestino Ordoñez ◽  
Juan Gabriel Álvarez-González ◽  
...  

Forest fuel loads and structural characteristics strongly affect fire behavior, regulating the rate of spread, fireline intensity, and flame length. Accurate fuel characterization, including disaggregation of the fuel load by size classes, is therefore essential to obtain reliable predictions from fire behavior simulators and to support decision-making in fuel management and fire hazard prediction. A total of 55 sample plots of four of the main non-tree covered shrub communities in NW Spain were non-destructively sampled to estimate litter depth and shrub cover and height for species. Fuel loads were estimated from species-specific equations. Moreover, a single terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) scan was collected in each sample plot and features related to the vertical and horizontal distribution of the cloud points were calculated. Two alternative approaches for estimating size-disaggregated fuel loads and live/dead fractions from TLS data were compared: (i) a two-steps indirect estimation approach (IE) based on fitting three equations to estimate shrub height and cover and litter depth from TLS data and then use those estimates as inputs of the existing species-specific fuel load equations by size fractions based on these three variables; and (ii) a direct estimation approach (DE), consisting of fitting seven equations, one for each fuel fraction, to relate the fuel load estimates to TLS data. Overall, the direct approach produced more balanced goodness-of-fit statistics for the seven fractions considered jointly, suggesting that it performed better than the indirect approach, with equations explaining more than 80% of the observed variability for all species and fractions, except the litter loads.


1984 ◽  
Vol 138 ◽  
pp. 185-196 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. A. Thorpe

Experiments are made in which a stratified shear flow, accelerating from rest and containing a level where the direction of flow reverses, is generated over a rough floor. The roughness elements consist of parallel square bars set at regular intervals normal to the direction of flow. Radiating internal gravity waves are generated in the early stages of flow, whilst flow separation behind the bars produces turbulent mixing regions which eventually amalgamate and entirely cover the floor. This turbulent layer spreads vertically less rapidly than the internal waves. Observed features of the waves are compared with those predicted by a model in which the floor is assumed to be sinusoidal, and fair agreement is found for the amplitude, phase and vertical wavenumber of the waves, even when the latter becomes large.The rate of spread of the turbulent layer depends on the separation of the bars. Some interaction between the turbulence and the internal waves occurs near the edge of the turbulent layer. Wave-breaking is prevalent and the vertical scale of the waves is affected by turbulent eddies. The radiating internal waves are suppressed by replacing the bars by an array of square cubes, but there is continued evidence of features resembling internal waves near the boundary of the turbulent region. Structures are observed which bear some similarities to those found at the foot of the near-surface mixing layer in a lake.


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