Sensitivity of warm-sector heavy precipitation to the impact of anthropogenic heating in South China

AbstractThe contributions of divergent and rotational wind components to the kinetic energy budget during a record-breaking rainstorm on 7 May 2017 over South China are examined. This warm-sector extreme precipitation caused historical maximum of 382.6 mm accumulated rainfall in 3 h over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) regions in South China. Results show that there was a high low-level southerly wind-speed tongue stretching into the PRD regions from the northeast of the South China Sea (SCS) during this extreme precipitation. The velocity potential exhibited a low-value center as well as a low-level divergence-center over the SCS. The rotational components of the kinetic energy (KR)-related terms were the main contribution-terms of the kinetic energy budget. The main contribution-terms of KR and the divergent component of kinetic energy (KD) were the barotropical and baroclinic processes-related terms due to cross-contour flow and the vertical flux divergence.

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A 7-Year Climatology of Warm-Sector Heavy Rainfall over South China during the Pre-Summer Months

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12070914 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (7) ◽

pp. 914

Author(s):

Tao Chen ◽

Da-Lin Zhang

Keyword(s):

South China ◽

Heavy Rainfall ◽

Large Scale ◽

Convective Available Potential Energy ◽

Potential Temperature ◽

Vertical Wind Shear ◽

Precipitable Water ◽

Atmospheric Parameter ◽

Low Level ◽

Warm Sector

In view of the limited predictability of heavy rainfall (HR) events and the limited understanding of the physical mechanisms governing the initiation and organization of the associated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), a composite analysis of 58 HR events over the warm sector (i.e., far ahead of the surface cold front), referred to as WSHR events, over South China during the months of April to June 2008~2014 is performed in terms of precipitation, large-scale circulations, pre-storm environmental conditions, and MCS types. Results show that the large-scale circulations of the WSHR events can be categorized into pre-frontal, southwesterly warm and moist ascending airflow, and low-level vortex types, with higher frequency occurrences of the former two types. Their pre-storm environments are characterized by a deep moist layer with >50 mm column-integrated precipitable water, high convective available potential energy with the equivalent potential temperature of ≥340 K at 850 hPa, weak vertical wind shear below 400 hPa, and a low-level jet near 925 hPa with weak warm advection, based on atmospheric parameter composite. Three classes of the corresponding MCSs, exhibiting peak convective activity in the afternoon and the early morning hours, can be identified as linear-shaped, a leading convective line adjoined with trailing stratiform rainfall, and comma-shaped, respectively. It is found that many linear-shaped MCSs in coastal regions are triggered by local topography, enhanced by sea breezes, whereas the latter two classes of MCSs experience isentropic lifting in the southwesterly warm and moist flows. They all develop in large-scale environments with favorable quasi-geostrophic forcing, albeit weak. Conceptual models are finally developed to facilitate our understanding and prediction of the WSHR events over South China.

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Deepwater Steel Catenary Riser System Design for Lingshui 17-2 Project

10.1115/omae2021-63881 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ning He ◽

Hu Yang ◽

Fanli Xu ◽

Yongming Cheng

Keyword(s):

South China Sea ◽

System Design ◽

South China ◽

Oil And Gas ◽

Low Cost ◽

Northern South China Sea ◽

Steel Catenary Riser ◽

China Sea ◽

Scr System ◽

The Impact

Abstract A riser is a key component for transporting produced oil and gas from the subsea wells to the surface production vessel. Through nearly 30 years of design and implementation, Steel Catenary Risers (SCRs) have been found to have the advantages of relatively low cost and good adaptability to floating platform’s motion. This paper investigates deepwater SCR system design for the Lingshui 17-2 (termed LS17-2) project. This paper first introduces a SCR system for the LS17-2 project. The field for this project is located in the northern South China Sea, with water depth of 1220m to 1560m. LS17-2 consists of a subsea production system, a deep-draft semi-submersible (SEMI), and an export riser/pipeline. The platform was designed to have a large storage capacity with a variable draft during its operation. Based on deepwater SCR engineering experience, the key SCR design challenges are summarized from the engineering executive perspective. The challenges to the SCR system design for the LS17-2 project include harsh environment condition in South China Sea and the impact on fatigue design for the requirement of 30-years’ service life. They call for design optimization and innovative ideas. The engineering design and analysis are discussed together solutions. To demonstrate the deepwater SCR system design for LS17-2 project, examples are provided to illustrate the challenges and solutions. The experience learned from this paper should have significant relevance to future SCR design.

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An evaluation of the effect of future climate on runoff in the Dongjiang River basin, South China

Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences ◽

10.5194/piahs-368-257-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 368 ◽

pp. 257-262

Author(s):

K. Lin ◽

W. Zhai ◽

S. Huang ◽

Z. Liu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

South China ◽

Annual Runoff ◽

Future Climate ◽

Weather Data ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Dongjiang River ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Abstract. The impact of future climate change on the runoff for the Dongjiang River basin, South China, has been investigated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). First, the SWAT model was applied in the three sub-basins of the Dongjiang River basin, and calibrated for the period of 1970–1975, and validated for the period of 1976–1985. Then the hydrological response under climate change and land use scenario in the next 40 years (2011–2050) was studied. The future weather data was generated by using the weather generators of SWAT, based on the trend of the observed data series (1966–2005). The results showed that under the future climate change and LUCC scenario, the annual runoff of the three sub-basins all decreased. Its impacts on annual runoff were –6.87%, –6.54%, and –18.16% for the Shuntian, Lantang, and Yuecheng sub-basins respectively, compared with the baseline period 1966–2005. The results of this study could be a reference for regional water resources management since Dongjiang River provides crucial water supplies to Guangdong Province and the District of Hong Kong in China.

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Evaluating the Impact of the COSMIC RO Bending Angle Data on Predicting the Heavy Precipitation Episode on 16 June 2008 during SoWMEX-IOP8

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/mwr-d-13-00275.1 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 142 (11) ◽

pp. 4139-4163 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Shu-Chih Yang ◽

Shu-Hua Chen ◽

Shu-Ya Chen ◽

Ching-Yuang Huang ◽

Ching-Sen Chen

Keyword(s):

Lower Troposphere ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Southwest Monsoon ◽

Weather Research And Forecasting ◽

Heavy Rainfall Event ◽

Bending Angle ◽

Angle Data ◽

Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter ◽

The Impact ◽

Better Than

Abstract Global positioning system (GPS) radio occultation (RO) data have been broadly used in global and regional numerical weather predictions. Assimilation with the bending angle often performs better than refractivity, which is inverted from the bending angle under spherical assumption and is sometimes associated with negative biases at the lower troposphere; however, the bending angle operator also requires a higher model top as used in global models. This study furnishes the feasibility of bending-angle assimilation in the prediction of heavy precipitation systems with a regional model. The local RO operators for simulating bending angle and refractivity are implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)–local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) framework. The impacts of assimilating RO data from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) using both operators are evaluated on the prediction of a heavy precipitation episode during Southwest Monsoon Experiment intensive observing period 8 (SoWMEX-IOP8) in 2008. Results show that both the refractivity and bending angle provide a favorable condition for generating this heavy rainfall event. In comparison with the refractivity data, the advantage of assimilating the bending angle is identified in the midtroposphere for deepening of the moist layer that leads to a rainfall forecast closer to the observations.

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Changing dynamics in Philippines–China–US relations: the impact of the South China Sea disputes

New Dynamics in US-China Relations ◽

10.4324/9781315769035-27 ◽

2014 ◽

pp. 258-272

Keyword(s):

South China Sea ◽

South China ◽

The South China Sea ◽

The South ◽

China Sea ◽

The Impact

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Simulated coordinated impacts of the previous autumn North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and winter El Niño on winter aerosol concentrations over eastern China

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-19-10787-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 19 (16) ◽

pp. 10787-10800 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Juan Feng ◽

Jianping Li ◽

Hong Liao ◽

Jianlei Zhu

Keyword(s):

North Atlantic Oscillation ◽

South China ◽

North Atlantic ◽

El Niño ◽

El Nino ◽

Eastern China ◽

Central China ◽

Boreal Winter ◽

The Impact ◽

Previous Autumn

Abstract. The high aerosol concentration (AC) over eastern China has attracted attention from both science and society. Based on the simulations of a chemical transport model using a fixed emissions level, the possible impact of the previous autumn North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) combined with the simultaneous El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the boreal winter AC over eastern China is investigated. We find that the NAO only manifests its negative impacts on the AC during its negative phase over central China, and a significant positive influence on the distribution of AC is observed over south China only during the warm events of ENSO. The impact of the previous NAO on the AC occurs via an anomalous sea surface temperature tripole pattern by which a teleconnection wave train is induced that results in anomalous convergence over central China. In contrast, the occurrence of ENSO events may induce an anomalous shift in the western Pacific subtropical high and result in anomalous southwesterlies over south China. The anomalous circulations associated with a negative NAO and El Niño are not favorable for the transport of AC and correspond to worsening air conditions over central and south China. The results highlight the fact that the combined effects of tropical and extratropical systems play a considerable role in affecting the boreal winter AC over eastern China.

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The impact of the planetary β-effect on the tilting vertical structure of a mesoscale eddy

10.5194/os-2018-39 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Shengmu Yang ◽

Jiuxing Xing ◽

Shengli Chen ◽

Jiwei Tian ◽

Daoyi Chen

Keyword(s):

South China Sea ◽

South China ◽

General Circulation ◽

Vertical Structure ◽

Mesoscale Eddy ◽

Maximum Velocity ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Mesoscale Eddies ◽

China Sea ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Tilting mesoscale eddies in the South China Sea have been reported recently from observed field data. The mechanism of the dynamic process of the tilt, however, is not well understood. In this study, the influence of planetary β on the vertical structure of mesoscale eddies and its mechanism is investigated using theoretical analysis and numerical model experiments based on the MIT General Circulation Model (MITgcm). The results of the both approaches show that vertical motion due to the planetary β effect and nonlinear dynamics causes a pressure anomaly in the horizontal domain which triggers the tilt of the eddy axis. The tilting distance extends to be the radius of the eddy maximum velocity. In addition, the vertical stratification is another key factor in controlling the tilt of a mesoscale eddy. External forcings such as wind and inflow current are not considered in this study, and topography is included only in a realistic South China Sea model. Therefore, mesoscale eddies with large vertical depth should have the similar axis tilt character in open oceans under the β-effect.

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Impact of multiple radar reflectivity data assimilation on the numerical simulation of a flash flood event during the HyMeX campaign

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-21-5459-2017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 21 (11) ◽

pp. 5459-5476 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Ida Maiello ◽

Sabrina Gentile ◽

Rossella Ferretti ◽

Luca Baldini ◽

Nicoletta Roberto ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Initial Conditions ◽

Flash Flood ◽

Central Italy ◽

Heavy Precipitation ◽

Radar Reflectivity ◽

Precipitation Event ◽

Italian Regions ◽

Reflectivity Data ◽

The Impact

Abstract. An analysis to evaluate the impact of multiple radar reflectivity data with a three-dimensional variational (3-D-Var) assimilation system on a heavy precipitation event is presented. The main goal is to build a regionally tuned numerical prediction model and a decision-support system for environmental civil protection services and demonstrate it in the central Italian regions, distinguishing which type of observations, conventional and not (or a combination of them), is more effective in improving the accuracy of the forecasted rainfall. In that respect, during the first special observation period (SOP1) of HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) campaign several intensive observing periods (IOPs) were launched and nine of which occurred in Italy. Among them, IOP4 is chosen for this study because of its low predictability regarding the exact location and amount of precipitation. This event hit central Italy on 14 September 2012 producing heavy precipitation and causing several cases of damage to buildings, infrastructure, and roads. Reflectivity data taken from three C-band Doppler radars running operationally during the event are assimilated using the 3-D-Var technique to improve high-resolution initial conditions. In order to evaluate the impact of the assimilation procedure at different horizontal resolutions and to assess the impact of assimilating reflectivity data from multiple radars, several experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are performed. Finally, traditional verification scores such as accuracy, equitable threat score, false alarm ratio, and frequency bias – interpreted by analysing their uncertainty through bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) – are used to objectively compare the experiments, using rain gauge data as a benchmark.

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