Numerical Modeling of Climate (on Yakutia example)

Abstract Numerical modeling of time series of observations of Yakutsk meteorological station was used for the first time to construct a model of heat and moisture climate variability over the course of a century cycle of solar activity (SA). The lag of precipitation relative to temperature for ¼ of the rhythmic wave was revealed. Consecutive change of climatic phases: cold-wet (CW) warm-wet (WW), cold-dry (CD) and warm-dry (WD) has been established. The nonlinearity of the solar-tropospheric relations at level of intra- and secular oscillations is confirmed. The trends and anomalies of climate changes and permafrost response for the next decades and the current century as a whole are determined.

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Impacts of Increased Climate Variability on the Profitability of Midwest Agriculture

Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics ◽

10.1017/s1074070800008828 ◽

1999 ◽

Vol 31 (3) ◽

pp. 537-549 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Bruce L. Dixon ◽

Kathleen Segerson

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Climate Variability ◽

Climate Changes ◽

County Level ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Level Data ◽

Profit Functions ◽

Negative Impacts ◽

The Impact

AbstractApproximate profit functions are estimated using time-series, cross-sectional, county level data for 12 midwest states. Measures of climate variability are included in the profit functions. Simulated impacts of climate changes on profits are derived. Results show that inclusion of measures of climate variation are important for measuring the impact of changes in mean temperature and precipitation levels. Failure to account for the impact of differences in variability leads to an overestimate of damages. If global warming increases diurnal variation, such increases would have negative impacts on the profitability of midwest agriculture.

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Influence of solar activity on climate : Poles to Tropics

MAUSAM ◽

10.54302/mausam.v62i4.390 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 62 (4) ◽

pp. 653-658

Author(s):

NELOY KHARE

Keyword(s):

Solar Activity ◽

Climate Variability ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Climate Dynamics ◽

Geographical Region ◽

Proxy Data ◽

Tropical Regions ◽

Time Control ◽

Solar Influence

Solar activities are directly or indirectly responsible for climate variability around the globe. Evidences of such correspondences between solar activities and palaeoclimatic proxy data have been reported from polar as well as tropical regions, suggesting solar influence over climate dynamics. However, these findings need to be further strengthened by covering vast geographical region for generating palaeoclimatic data and corresponding variations in solar activities. A better time control on proxy data is essential to arrive at conclusive understanding and plausible causal linkages between solar activity and climate changes from poles to tropics.

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Climate bones of contention: How climate variability influences territorial, maritime, and river interstate conflicts

Journal of Peace Research ◽

10.1177/0022343320973738 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 58 (1) ◽

pp. 132-150

Author(s):

Cody J Schmidt ◽

Bomi K Lee ◽

Sara McLaughlin Mitchell

Keyword(s):

Climate Variability ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Heat Waves ◽

World Politics ◽

Western Hemisphere ◽

Intrastate Conflict ◽

Short Term ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Interstate Conflicts ◽

The Relationship

Many scholars examine the relationship between climate variability and intrastate conflict onset. While empirical findings in this literature are mixed, we know less about how climate changes increase the risks for conflicts between countries. This article studies climate variability using the issue approach to world politics. We examine whether climate variability influences the onset and militarization of interstate diplomatic conflicts and whether these effects are similar across issues that involve sovereignty claims for land (territory) or water (maritime, river). We focus on two theoretical mechanisms: scarcity ( abundance) and uncertainty. We measure these concepts empirically through climate deviation (e.g. droughts/floods, heat waves/cold spells) and climate volatility (greater short-term variance in precipitation/temperature). Analyses of issue claims in the Western Hemisphere and Europe (1901–2001) show that greater deviations and volatility in climate conditions increase risks for new diplomatic conflicts and militarization of ongoing issues and that climate change acts as a trigger for revisionist states.

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CHANGES IN THE HYDROTHERMAL COEFFICIENT AND IN THE FREQUENCY OF EXTREME HUMIDIFICATION CONDITIONS ON THE TERRITORY OF BELARUS DURING CLIMATE WARMING

Nature Management ◽

10.47612/2079-3928-2020-2-5-18 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 5-18

Author(s):

Yuliya A. Brovka ◽

Ivan V. Buyakov

Keyword(s):

Climate Warming ◽

Growing Season ◽

Northern Region ◽

Meteorological Station ◽

Spatial Change ◽

Hydrothermal Coefficient ◽

Arid Conditions ◽

Moisture Supply ◽

Moisture Conditions ◽

Heat And Moisture

It is important to study the heat and moisture supply of the territory under climate warming conditions in Belarus since 1989, as well as changes in the occurrence frequency of extreme moisture conditions. The features of the spatial change in the averaged hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) for the period of climate warming (1989–2019) and the colder period preceding it (1960–1988) in the months of the growing season were revealed based on the maps constructed by interpolation. A decrease in the aridity of conditions in May and September in the southeast and east of the country, an increase in aridity in June and August (especially in the southern regions), an increase in the area with excessive moisture in July and its decrease in September were defined. The article shows the features of changes in the frequency of droughts (HTC ≤ 0,7), less arid conditions (HTC = 0,71–1,0) and excessive moisture (HTC > 1,6) from May to September in 1989–2019, according to compared with the period 1960–1988. It was found that during the period of climate warming from May to September, there is a significant increase in the droughts frequency at meteorological stations in various regions of Belarus. A decrease in the number of years with drought in May and June is observed at several eastern and southern meteorological stations, in August – at the Zhitkovichi meteorological station, in September – at the Kostyukovichi meteorological station. The frequency of arid conditions in May, July and September decreases at many meteorological stations, and its changes are characterized by territorial heterogeneity. An increase in the number of years with less arid conditions is observed in most of Belarus in June and August. A significant increase in the frequency of excessive moisture was noted in July in most of the territory of Belarus, in May – in some regions. A decrease in the frequency of excessive moisture is observed at many meteorological stations in June and August; the number of years with excessive moisture increases only in the northern region. Spatial heterogeneity and less pronounced changes in the frequency of excessive moisture are noted in September.

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Solar-type periodicities in the climate variability of Northern Fennoscandia during the last three centuries: Real influence of solar activity or natural instability in the climate system

The Holocene ◽

10.1177/09596836211060487 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 095968362110604

Author(s):

Maxim Ogurtsov ◽

Samuli Helama ◽

Risto Jalkanen ◽

Högne Jungner ◽

Markus Lindholm ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Solar Activity ◽

Climate Variability ◽

Western Siberia ◽

Climate System ◽

Solar Cycles ◽

Activity Data ◽

The Past ◽

Proxy Records ◽

Northern Fennoscandia ◽

Solar Type

Fifteen proxy records of summer temperature in Fennoscandia, Northern Europe and in Yamal and Taymir Peninsulas (Western Siberia) were analyzed for the AD 1700–2000 period. Century-long (70–100 year) and quasi bi-decadal periodicities were found from proxy records representing different parts of Fennoscandia. Decadal variation was revealed in a smaller number of records. Statistically significant correlations were revealed between the timescale-dependent components of temperature variability and solar cycles of Schwabe (~11 year), Hale (~22 year), and Gleissberg (сentury-long) as recorded in solar activity data. Combining the results from our correlation analysis with the evidence of solar-climatic linkages over the Northern Fennoscandia obtained over the past 20 years suggest that there are two possible explanations for the obtained solar-proxy relations: (a) the Sun’s activity actually influences the climate variability in Northern Fennoscandia and in some regions of the Northern Hemisphere albeit the mechanism of such solar-climatic linkages are yet to be detailed; (b) the revealed solar-type periodicities result from natural instability of climate system and, in such a case, the correlations may appear purely by chance. Multiple lines of evidence support the first assumption but we note that the second one cannot be yet rejected. Guidelines for further research to elucidate this question are proposed including the Fisher’s combined probability test in the presence of solar signal in multiple proxy records.

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Detailed Stress Analysis of a Spherical Acrylic Submersible by 3-D Finite Element Modeling

10.1115/imece1999-0626 ◽

1999 ◽

Author(s):

Partha S. Das

Keyword(s):

Finite Element ◽

Numerical Modeling ◽

Dissimilar Materials ◽

Analysis Model ◽

Element Analysis ◽

Finite Element Analysis Model ◽

New Model ◽

Ocean Exploration ◽

Near Future ◽

First Time

Abstract Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institution (HBOI) designed, built and has operated two JOHNSON-SEA-LINK (JSL) manned submersibles for the past 25 years. The JSL submersibles each incorporate a 66–68 in. (1.6764–1.7272 m) OD, 4–5.25 in. (0.1016–0.13335 m) thick acrylic two-man sphere as a Pressure Vessel for Human Occupancy (PVHO). This type of spherical acrylic sphere or submersible was first introduced in around 1970 and is known as Naval Experimental Manned Observatory (NEMO) submersibles. As the demand increases for ocean exploration to 3000 ft. (914.4 m) depth to collect samples, to study the ocean surfaces, the problem of developing cracks at the interface of these manned acrylic submersibles following few hundred dives have become a common phenomena. This has drawn considerable attentions for reinvestigation of the spherical acrylic submersible in order to overcome this crack generation problem at the interface. Therefore, a new full-scale 3-D nonlinear FEA (Finite Element Analysis) model, similar to the spherical acrylic submersible that HBOI uses for ocean exploration, has been developed for the first time in order to simulate the structural behavior at the interface and throughout the sphere, for better understanding of the mechanical behavior. Variation of the stiffness between dissimilar materials at the interface, lower nylon gasket thickness, over designed aluminum hatch are seemed to be few of the causes for higher stresses within acrylic sphere at the nylon gasket/acrylic interface. Following the basic understanding of the stresses and relative displacements at the interface and within different parts of the submersible, various models have been developed on the basis of different shapes and thickness of nylon gaskets, openings of the acrylic sphere, hatch geometry and its materials, specifically to study their effect on the overall performance of the acrylic submersible. Finally, the new model for acrylic submersible has been developed by redesigning the top aluminum hatch and hatch ring, the sphere openings at both top and bottom, as well as the nylon gasket inserts. Altogether this new design indicates a significant improvement over the existing spherical acrylic submersible by reducing the stresses at the top gasket/acrylic interface considerably. Redesigning of the bottom penetrator plate, at present, is underway. In this paper, results from numerical modeling only are reported in details. Correlation between experimental-numerical modeling results for the new model will be reported in the near future.

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Information-based analysis of the coupling between brain and heart reactions to olfactory stimulation

Technology and Health Care ◽

10.3233/thc-213136 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-11

Author(s):

Najmeh Pakniyat ◽

Mohammad Hossein Babini ◽

Vladimir V. Kulish ◽

Hamidreza Namazi

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Biomedical Science ◽

Strongly Correlated ◽

Eeg Signals ◽

Ecg Signals ◽

Olfactory Stimuli ◽

Electrocardiogram Ecg ◽

First Time ◽

Electroencephalogram Eeg ◽

The Brain

BACKGROUND: Analysis of the heart activity is one of the important areas of research in biomedical science and engineering. For this purpose, scientists analyze the activity of the heart in various conditions. Since the brain controls the heart’s activity, a relationship should exist among their activities. OBJECTIVE: In this research, for the first time the coupling between heart and brain activities was analyzed by information-based analysis. METHODS: Considering Shannon entropy as the indicator of the information of a system, we recorded electroencephalogram (EEG) and electrocardiogram (ECG) signals of 13 participants (7 M, 6 F, 18–22 years old) in different external stimulations (using pineapple, banana, vanilla, and lemon flavors as olfactory stimuli) and evaluated how the information of EEG signals and R-R time series (as heart rate variability (HRV)) are linked. RESULTS: The results indicate that the changes in the information of the R-R time series and EEG signals are strongly correlated (ρ=-0.9566). CONCLUSION: We conclude that heart and brain activities are related.

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Recurrence time distribution and temporal clustering properties of a cellular automaton modelling landslide events

Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ◽

10.5194/npg-20-1071-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 20 (6) ◽

pp. 1071-1078 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

E. Piegari ◽

R. Di Maio ◽

A. Avella

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Probability Distribution ◽

Cellular Automaton ◽

Time Window ◽

Fano Factor ◽

Recent Analysis ◽

Recurrence Time ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Reasonable Prediction ◽

First Time

Abstract. Reasonable prediction of landslide occurrences in a given area requires the choice of an appropriate probability distribution of recurrence time intervals. Although landslides are widespread and frequent in many parts of the world, complete databases of landslide occurrences over large periods are missing and often such natural disasters are treated as processes uncorrelated in time and, therefore, Poisson distributed. In this paper, we examine the recurrence time statistics of landslide events simulated by a cellular automaton model that reproduces well the actual frequency-size statistics of landslide catalogues. The complex time series are analysed by varying both the threshold above which the time between events is recorded and the values of the key model parameters. The synthetic recurrence time probability distribution is shown to be strongly dependent on the rate at which instability is approached, providing a smooth crossover from a power-law regime to a Weibull regime. Moreover, a Fano factor analysis shows a clear indication of different degrees of correlation in landslide time series. Such a finding supports, at least in part, a recent analysis performed for the first time of an historical landslide time series over a time window of fifty years.

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Numerical Modeling for Heat and Moisture Transfer through Firefighting Protective Clothing

Firefighters’ Clothing and Equipment ◽

10.1201/9780429444876-12 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 329-347

Author(s):

Yun Su ◽

Guowen Song

Keyword(s):

Numerical Modeling ◽

Protective Clothing ◽

Moisture Transfer ◽

Heat And Moisture Transfer ◽

Heat And Moisture

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Determination of the complex frequencies for the normal modes below 1mHz after the 2010 Maule and 2011 Tohoku earthquakes

Annals of Geophysics ◽

10.4401/ag-6400 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 56 (5) ◽

Author(s):

Hao Ding ◽

Wen-Bin Shen

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Normal Modes ◽

Power Spectra ◽

Tohoku Earthquake ◽

Superconducting Gravimeter ◽

Width Ratio ◽

Maule Earthquake ◽

Attenuation Models ◽

First Time

Based upon SG (superconducting gravimeter) records, the autoregressive method proposed by Chao and Gilbert [1980] is used to determine the frequencies of the singlets of seven spheroidal modes (0S2, 2S1, 0S3, 0S4, 1S2, 0S0, and 3S1) and the degenerate frequencies of three toroidal modes (0T2, 0T3, and 0T4) below 1 mHz after two recent huge earthquakes, the 2010 Mw8.8 Maule earthquake and the 2011 Mw9.1 Tohoku earthquake. The corresponding quality factor Qs are also determined for those modes, of which the Qs of the five singlets of 1S2 and the five singlets (m=0, m=±2, and m=±3) of 0S4 are estimated for the first time using the SG observations. The singlet m=0 of 3S1 is clearly observed from the power spectra of the SG time series without using other special spectral analysis methods or special time series from pole station records. In addition, the splitting width ratio R of 3S1 is 0.99, and consequently we conclude that 3S1 is normally split. The frequencies and Qs of the modes below 1mHz may contribute to refining the 3D density and attenuation models of the Earth.

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