scholarly journals Mathematical modeling of traffic volume in the suburban area based on the time series decomposition

2021 ◽  
Vol 2131 (4) ◽  
pp. 042007
Author(s):  
E V Pechatnova ◽  
V N Kuznetsov
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Relative Error ◽  
Traffic Volume ◽  
Suburban Area ◽  
Average Relative Error ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
The Road ◽  
Road Section ◽  
Time Series Decomposition

Abstract This study aims to the development of mathematical modeling methods based on time series decomposition. This method is used to describe various consistency or recurrence processes. Such a process is the distribution of traffic volume throughout the year. Its modeling is one of the leading research tasks in the transport sector. One of the urgent tasks is the assessment and forecasting of the traffic volume in the suburban areas. The study is carried out on the road section P-256 Chuysky Trakt (Novosibirsk - Barnaul - Biysk - Gorno-Altaisk -state border with Mongolia) near Biysk. Traffic data is obtained for 2019. Python is used in modelling. The statmodels module is used to decompose the time series. The multiplicative model is chosen. The adequacy of the model is checked on two groups of data. The first is the traffic volume data on the same road section for 2020. The average relative error was 5%. The second is the road section A-322 Barnaul - Rubtsovsk - the state border with the Republic of Kazakhstan in the suburban area of Aleysk. The average relative error was 6%. The results confirm the adequacy and versatility of the model.

scholarly journals PENGARUH KEMACETAN DI SIMPANG SABILILLAH TERHADAP IMPLEMENTASI CITRA LALU LINTAS DI SIMPANG PROGRESIF

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 114
Author(s):  
Supiyono, Dwi Ratnaningsih, Rudy Ariyanto
Keyword(s):  
Road Traffic ◽  
Flame Length ◽  
Traffic Volume ◽  
Signalized Intersections ◽  
Degree Of Saturation ◽  
The Road ◽  
Road Section ◽  
On The Road ◽  
High Traffic Volume

Progress of a country in line with the progress of traffic (transport). Fluency in traffic is determined by the smoothness of traffic on the road. Problems often arise on the highway is congestion at the intersection. Neither was signalized intersections and signalized intersections. Problems at the intersection is less accuracy green flame at the intersection with the number of vehicles in a segment. A road with high traffic volume vehicle green flame low while other road traffic volume small green flame length. So in a long queue roads, while other roads are deserted while still green flame.     This study aims to minimize the occurrence of conflic at the intersection of green flame. Research will make iterations in the intersection, where a road section which will be nominated densely green flame, the flame of the green according to the volume of traffic on these roads. Each road will be a green flame in accordance with the volume of traffic, without having to change any program there is a change in traffic volume.The degree of saturation of the calculation obtained by ....Keywords: roads, hight traffic, progressive intersection, degree saturation

scholarly journals STUDI PERENCANAAN TEBAL PERKERASAN KONSTRUKSI JALAN RAYA (MENGGUNAKAN METODE BINA MARGA) PADA RUAS JALAN UMASUKAER DI KABUPATEN MALAKA

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 75
Author(s):  
Philipus Resato Nahak ◽  
Yosef Cahyo ◽  
Sigit Winarto
Keyword(s):  
Road Construction ◽  
Traffic Volume ◽  
Traffic Density ◽  
The Road ◽  
Technical Requirements ◽  
Road Section ◽  
Road Capacity ◽  
Data Survey ◽  
Pavement Thickness

The increase in traffic volume will cause a decrease in service due to decreased road capacity due to an increase in side constraints and due to the increase in traffic volume itself, which will ultimately cause the level of road saturation to increase. The situation occurred in the Umasukaer road section of the Malacca Regency. Therefore it is necessary to address improvements in the quality of the road in order to meet the feasibility of transportation facilities by taking into account the existing technical requirements. The results of planning found that through the 2015 LHR survey data with a prediction of an increase in traffic density of 6% per year, the LHR was obtained with a planned age of 7 years = 2540.7 vehicles/day/department and a 20-year plan life LHR = 5419.1 ked/day / major. The results of a gradual construction planning pavement study can be concluded that the planning model that has been designed is effective in strengthening road construction in accordance with existing technical requirements and efficient in terms of financing. The final results of gradual construction pavement thickness results are: Ashburton thickness (MS 744) = 8 cm, Ashburton (MS 744) = 13 cm, broken stone (CBR 100) = 20 cm, Sirtu (CBR 50) = 10 cm and CBR subgrade 5%. Pertambahan volume lalu lintas akan menyebabkan penurunan layanan diakibatkan menurunnya kapasitas jalan karena adanya peningkatan hambatan samping maupun karena beratambahnya volume lalu lintas itu sendiri yang pada akhirnya akan meyebabkan tingkat kejenuhan jalan meningkat. Keadaan tersebut terjadi ruas jalan Umasukaer Kabupaten Malaka, oleh karena itu perlu adanya penanganan perbaikan kualitas jalan agar memenuhi segi kelayakan sarana transportasi dengan memperhatikan syarat-syarat teknik yang ada. Hasil perencanaan didapatkan bahwa melalui data survey LHR tahun 2015 dengan prediksi peningkatan kepadatan lalu lintas sebesar 6% pertahun maka didapatkan LHR dengan umur rencana 7 tahun = 2540,7 kend/hr/jurusan dan LHR umur rencana 20 tahun = 5419,1 ked/hr/jurusan. Hasil studi perencanaan perkerasan konstruksi bertahap dapat diambil kesimpulan bahwa model perencaaan yang telah dirancang efektif dalam memperkerasa konstruksi jalan sesuai dengan syarat teknis yang ada serta efisien dalam hal pembiayaan. Hasil akhir tebal perkerasan konstruksi bertahap diperoleh hasil: Ketebalan Asbuton (MS 744) = 8 cm, Asbuton (MS 744) = 13 cm, batu pecah (CBR 100) = 20 cm, Sirtu (CBR 50) = 10 cm dan CBR tanah dasar 5%.

scholarly journals On Street Parking Effect To Performance Of The Imam Bonjol Street In Palu City

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 58
Author(s):  
Nita Ayu Lestari ◽  
Rahmatang Rahman ◽  
Anas Tahir
Keyword(s):  
Survey Methods ◽  
Traffic Volume ◽  
Level Of Service ◽  
Traffic Jam ◽  
The Road ◽  
Public Facilities ◽  
Road Section ◽  
On The Road ◽  
Road Data ◽  
Parking Facilities

Traffic jam caused by a lots of vehicles which parked on the road has always been a problem on urban roads. The lack of parking facilities out of the road and a lot of generation due to public facilities such as bank, restaurants, pharmacies, shops, and health center, will have an impact on traffic jam on the Imam Bonjol road section. This research aim for determine the magnitude effect of parking on street to the road performance of the Imam Bonjol street. The data needed includes, highway geometric, collecting data obtained from the results of the surveys is data on traffic volume, side barriers, parking on the road data and speed data. The parking survey methods using plat number methods and the data was analysed using the MKJI 1997 calculation method. The results of this research indicate that parking on the road is affected the performance of the imam bonjol street. the amount of traffic volume on saturday at 20.00 - 21.00 WITA is 3034 vehicles/hour. Side barriers values obtained is 560.7 friction/hour with high conditions typical is commercial areas, high activities on the road side, so the value of capacity dropped from 4576 smp/hour before parking, to 2533 smp/hour after parking on the road. The value average speed of light vehicle on Saturdays for the west to east is 24,42 km/hour, while the east to west is 23,94 km/hour. In 2018 the DS value is 0.65 with the level of service C. Whereas in 2023 the performance increased to DS = 1,23 with the level of service F.

scholarly journals ANALISIS KINERJA LALU LINTAS DI JALAN SEKITAR HYPERMART JL.VETERAN,PENANGGUNGAN, KLOJEN, MALANG

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 277
Author(s):  
Savira Anggraeni ◽  
Yosef Cahyo Setianto Poernomo ◽  
Sigit Winarto
Keyword(s):  
Direct Observation ◽  
Traffic Volume ◽  
Degree Of Saturation ◽  
Shopping Center ◽  
Real Situation ◽  
The Road ◽  
Road Section ◽  
Road Capacity ◽  
Library Research ◽  
Traffic Performance

This research was conducted to determine the peak traffic volume, road capacity, degree of saturation, analyze traffic performance, find out the prediction of the next 5 years, and to evaluate the traffic performance around the Hypermart shopping center that occurs in the real situation. The method used is by library research, looking for references from previous research and direct observation. The peak traffic volume is 1469 SMP / hour for the first location and 1104.4 SMP / hour for the second location. The capacity of the road section is 4699.73 SMP / hour. For the analysis of the degree of saturation of the first location of 0.31 SMP / hour and 0.23 SMP / hour in the second location. For the next 5 years prediction in that region, it is predicted to increase by 8.93% so that the volume of vehicles will rise to 2124.76 SMP / hour, and for the degree of saturation of 0.45, which means that the traffic service in this region is included in class C in 2024.Penelitian ini dilaksanakan untuk mengetahui volume puncak lalu lintas, kapasitas jalan,derajat kejenuhan,  menganalisis kinerja lalu lintas, mengetahui prediksi 5 tahun ke depan serta untuk mengevaluasi kinerja lalu lintas di sekitar pusat perbelanjaan Hypermart yang terjadi disituasi rill. Metode yang digunakan adalah dengan cara studi pustaka, mencari referensi dari penelitian terdahulu serta melakukan observasi langsung. Volume puncak lalu lintas didapatkan nilai 1469 smp/jam untuk lokasi pertama dan 1104.4 smp/jam untuk lokasi kedua.Kapasitas ruas jalan sebesar 4699.73 smp/jam.Untuk analisa derajat kejenuhan lokasi pertama sebesar 0.31 smp/jam dan 0.23 smp/jam pada lokasi kedua.Untuk prediksi 5 tahun kedepan pada wilayah tersebut diprediksi akan mengalami kenaikan sebesar 8.93% sehingga volume kendaraan akan naik menjadi 2124.76 smp/jam, dan untuk nilai derajat kejenuhan sebesar 0.45 yang artinya pelayanan lalu lintas wilayah ini termasuk ke dalam kelas C pada tahun 2024.

scholarly journals ANALISIS KINERJA JALAN PADA RUAS JALAN LINTAS MEULABOH – TAPAK TUAN KABUPATEN NAGAN RAYA

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hilma Erliana ◽  
Cut Liliza Yusra ◽  
Farzi Rizka
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Good Condition ◽  
Service Level ◽  
Traffic Volume ◽  
Degree Of Saturation ◽  
The Road ◽  
Road Section ◽  
Access Road ◽  
Road Performance ◽  
On The Road

Abstract The Meulaboh - Tapak Tuan road is the main access road linking several districts, Aceh Barat, Aceh Barat Daya, Aceh Selatan, and Aceh Tengah. After the earthquake and tsunami hit Aceh, its economies experienced rapid growth. This greatly influences the distribution of traffic volume on specific road segments, including the increasingly congested Meulaboh - Tapak Tuan roads. As a result, the number of private vehicles is increasing. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the performance of roads in the area based on the Indonesian Road Capacity Manual, as well as to analyze the level of road services at present and in the future. The analysis of the road performance can be measure by several indicators such as traffic flow (Q), capacity (C), degree of saturation (DS), free flow velocity (FV), and level of service on the road section. The calculations were obtained from 3 days direct observation in the field from 07:00 to 19:00 with Monday and Thursday representing workdays and Saturday representing weekend. The highest conversion value of traffic flow in 2020 was 1357 pcu/hour for (Q), 2654 pcu/hour for the actual capacity value (C), and 0.51 for the degree of saturation (DS). The analysis results show that the degree of saturation < 0.75. According to Marga (1997), it is considered in good condition with smooth traffic flow at the service level of C. The road performance analysis for the next five years for traffic flow was 2093 pcu/hour for Q and 0.79 for the degree of saturation (DS). The service level is categorized as level D. It is necessary to find solutions and alternatives to reduce the degree of saturation (DS) value by increasing the value of capacity. Keywords: Road Performance, Traffic Volume, Service Level __________________________ Abstrak Ruas jalan lintas Meulaboh – Tapak Tuan merupakan akses yang menghubungkan beberapa kabupaten yaitu Aceh Barat, Aceh Barat Daya, Aceh Selatan, Aceh tengah dan lainnya. Pasca gempa dan tsunami menerjang, pertumbuhan ekonomi pada Provinsi Aceh mengalami kemajuan yang cukup pesat. Hal ini sangat mempengaruhi penyebaran volume lalu lintas pada ruas-ruas jalan tertentu termasuk ruas jalan lintas Meulaboh – Tapak Tuan semakin padat. Adapun tujuan penelitian ini adalah melakukan evaluasi kinerja terhadap ruas jalan pada kawasan tersebut berdasarkan Manual Kapasitas Jalan Indonesia, dan menganalisis tingkat pelayanan jalan pada saat ini maupun di masa yang akan datang. Dalam menganalisis kinerja ruas jalan indikator kinerja yang dibutuhkan yaitu arus lalu lintas (Q), kapasitas (C), derajat Kejenuhan (DS), Kecepatan arus bebas (FV) dan tingkat pelayanan pada raus jalan tersebut. Hasil perhitungan yang di dapat selama 3 hari pengamatan langsung di lapangan dari pukul 07.00-19.00 wib yaitu hari senin dan kamis mewakili hari kerja, hari sabtu mewakili hari libur. Didapat nilai konversi tertinggi arus lalu lintas pada Tahun 2020 (Q) sebesar 1357 smp/jam, nilai kapasitas aktual (C) sebesar 2654 smp/jam, derajat kejenuhan (DS) sebesar 0,51. Dari hasil perhitungan didapat derajat kejenuhan < 0,75 (Marga, 1997) dianggap dalam kondisi baik, arus stabil, kecepatan dipengaruhi oleh lalu lintas dengan tingkat pelayanan C. Perhitungan analisis kinerja jalan pada 5 tahun mendatang yaitu untuk arus lalu lintas Tahun 2025 (Q) sebesar 2093 smp/jam derajat kejenuhan (DS) sebesar 0,79 tingkat pelayanannya dikategorikan tingkat D. Hal tersebut dapat dicari solusi terbaik sehingga dapat menurunkan nilai derajat kejenuhan (DS) dengan cara meningkatkan nilai kapasitas. Kata Kunci: Kinerja Ruas Jalan, Volume Lalu Lintas, Tingkat pelayanan __________________________

Analisis Kinerja dan Pengaruh Pelebaran Jalan serta Pembuatan Median Jalan (Studi Kasus Jalan Temanggung Tilung Kota Palangkaraya)

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-60
Author(s):  
Fitri Wulandari ◽  
Nirwana Puspasari ◽  
Noviyanthy Handayani
Keyword(s):  
Data Retrieval ◽  
Service Level ◽  
Traffic Volume ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Volume Data ◽  
Saturation Degree ◽  
The Road ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Road Widening ◽  
The Way

Jalan Temanggung Tilung is a 2/2 UD type road (two undirected two-way lanes) with a road width of 5.5 meters, which is a connecting road between two major roads, namely the RTA road. Milono and the path of G. Obos. Over time, the volume of traffic through these roads increases every year, plus roadside activities that also increase cause congestion at several points of the way. To overcome this problem, the local government carried out road widening to increase the capacity and level of road services. The study was conducted to determine the amount of traffic volume, performance, service level of the Temanggung Tilung road section at peak traffic hours before and after road widening. Data retrieval is done by the direct survey to the field to obtain primary data in the form of geometric road data, two-way traffic volume data, and side obstacle data. Performance analysis refers to the 1997 Indonesian Road Capacity Manual (MKJI) for urban roads. From the results of data processing, before increasing the road (Type 2/2 UD), the traffic volume that passes through the path is 842 pcs/hour and after road widening (Type 4/2 UD) the traffic volume for two directions is 973 pcs/hour, with route A equaling 528 pcs/hour and direction B equaling 445 pcs/hour. Based on the analysis of road performance before road enhancement, the capacity = 2551 pcs/hour, saturation degree = 0.331, and the service level of the two-way road are level B. Based on the analysis of the performance of the way after increasing the way, the direction capacity A = 2686 pcs/hour and direction B = 2674 pcs /hour, saturation degree for direction A = 0.196 and direction B = 0.166, service level for road direction A and direction B increase to level A

scholarly journals How Will Digitalization Change Road Freight Transport? Scenarios Tested in Sweden

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 304
Author(s):  
Anna Pernestål ◽  
Albin Engholm ◽  
Marie Bemler ◽  
Gyözö Gidofalvi
Keyword(s):  
Freight Transport ◽  
Sustainable Transportation ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
Strategic Uncertainty ◽  
Scenario Development ◽  
Service Levels ◽  
Urban Freight ◽  
The Road ◽  
Road Freight ◽  
On The Road

Road freight transport is a key function of modern societies. At the same time, road freight transport accounts for significant emissions. Digitalization, including automation, digitized information, and artificial intelligence, provide opportunities to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and increase service levels in road freight transport. Digitalization may also radically change the business ecosystem in the sector. In this paper, the question, “How will digitalization change the road freight transport landscape?” is addressed by developing four exploratory future scenarios, using Sweden as a case study. The results are based on input from 52 experts. For each of the four scenarios, the impacts on the road freight transport sector are investigated, and opportunities and barriers to achieving a sustainable transportation system in each of the scenarios are discussed. In all scenarios, an increase in vehicle kilometers traveled is predicted, and in three of the four scenarios, significant increases in recycling and urban freight flows are predicted. The scenario development process highlighted how there are important uncertainties in the development of the society that will be highly important for the development of the digitized freight transport landscape. One example is the sustainability paradigm, which was identified as a strategic uncertainty.

scholarly journals Business Days Time Series Weekly Trend and Seasonality

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 26
Author(s):  
Karlis Gutans
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Adjustment Method ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Currency Exchange Rates ◽  
Time Series Decomposition ◽  
The World

The world changes at incredible speed. Global warming and enormous money printing are two examples, which do not affect every one of us equally. “Where and when to spend the vacation?”; “In what currency to store the money?” are just a few questions that might get asked more frequently. Knowledge gained from freely available temperature data and currency exchange rates can provide better advice. Classical time series decomposition discovers trend and seasonality patterns in data. I propose to visualize trend and seasonality data in one chart. Furthermore, I developed a calendar adjustment method to obtain weekly trend and seasonality data and display them in the chart.

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