scholarly journals Using Cure Models to Estimate the Serial Interval of Tuberculosis With Limited Follow-up

2020 ◽  
Vol 189 (11) ◽  
pp. 1421-1426
Author(s):  
Yicheng Ma ◽  
Helen E Jenkins ◽  
Paola Sebastiani ◽  
Jerrold J Ellner ◽  
Edward C Jones-López ◽  
...  

Abstract Serial interval (SI), defined as the time between symptom onset in an infector and infectee pair, is commonly used to understand infectious diseases transmission. Slow progression to active disease, as well as the small percentage of individuals who will eventually develop active disease, complicate the estimation of the SI for tuberculosis (TB). In this paper, we showed via simulation studies that when there is credible information on the percentage of those who will develop TB disease following infection, a cure model, first introduced by Boag in 1949, should be used to estimate the SI for TB. This model includes a parameter in the likelihood function to account for the study population being composed of those who will have the event of interest and those who will never have the event. We estimated the SI for TB to be approximately 0.5 years for the United States and Canada (January 2002 to December 2006) and approximately 2.0 years for Brazil (March 2008 to June 2012), which might imply a higher occurrence of reinfection TB in a developing country like Brazil.

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e13592-e13592 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrine Wallace ◽  
Adrienne Landsteiner ◽  
Scott Bunner ◽  
Nicole Engel-Nitz ◽  
Amy Luckenbaugh

e13592 Background: To date, there has been a paucity of information in the literature describing the epidemiology of mCRPC within the prostate cancer population. We present a real-world data study describing characteristics and mortality of patients with mCRPC within an administrative claims database of an insured population within the United States. Methods: In an administrative claims database of ≈18,000,000 covered lives, adult male patients were included if they had ≥1 claim for prostate cancer (ICD-9: 185 or 233.4; ICD-10: C61 or D075), underwent pharmacologic or surgical castration, and had a code for metastatic disease during the identification period (January 1, 2008–March 31, 2018). The index date was the first metastatic claim; 6 months of continuous enrollment (CE) prior to (baseline period) and after (follow-up period) the index date was required. Patients with metastatic claims in the baseline period were excluded. Patients were followed until the earliest of: death (unless prior to the 6-month CE), end of study period, or disenrollment. A claims-based algorithm was employed to identify locally advanced and distant mCRPC patients in the prostate cancer study population. Mortality data were sourced from the Social Security Administration Medicare data, and a claims algorithm. Results: 343,089 patients were identified with a claim for prostate cancer; of those, 3690 mCRPC cases (1.1%) were identified using the claims-based algorithm and met the study inclusion criteria. Median age was 75 years. Insurance type included commercial plans (27%) and Medicare (73%). Castration type included pharmacologic (99%) and surgical (1%). First claims for metastases were most commonly in the bone (65%) or lymph nodes (15%), with 20% in other sites. The study population averaged a Charlson comorbidity index score of 3.05 at baseline, with 16% of patients receiving a score of ≥5. The most common baseline comorbidities were hypertension (67%), urinary disease (58%), dyslipidemia (52%), and cardiac disease (45%). Median follow-up time among the mCRPC group was 538 days, during which 1834 deaths occurred; 50% of the population experienced mortality during the study period. Conclusions: This study provides valuable insights into the epidemiology, clinical characteristics, prevalence rate, and mortality of patients with mCRPC. Given the high mortality proportion of this disease, the development of novel therapies to prolong life in patients with mCRPC is warranted.


Author(s):  
Isidora Grozdic Milojevic ◽  
Dragana Sobic-Saranovic ◽  
Nebojsa Petrovic ◽  
Slobodanka Beatovic ◽  
Marijana Tadic ◽  
...  

Objective: To determine the prevalence of abdominal involvement, distribution pattern and evaluate role of hybrid molecular imaging in patients with abdominal sarcoidosis. Methods: Between January 2010 and December 2011, 98 patients with chronic sarcoidosis and presence of prolonged symptoms or other findings suggestive of active disease were referred to FDG PET/CT examination. Active disease was found in 82 patients, and they all were screened for the presence of abdominal sarcoidosis on FDG PET/CT. All patients also underwent MDCT and assessment of serum ACE level. Follow up FDG PET/CT examination was done 12.3±5.4 months after the baseline. Results: Abdominal sarcoidosis was present in 31/82 patients with active sarcoidosis. FDG uptake was present in: retroperitoneal lymph nodes (77%), liver (26%), spleen (23%), adrenal gland (3%). Majority of patients had more than two locations of disease. Usually thoracic disease was spread into the extrathoracic localizations, while isolated abdominal sarcoidosis was present in 10% of patients. After first FDG PET/CT examination therapy was changed in all patients. Eleven patients came to the follow up examination where SUVmax significantly decreased in the majority of them. Three patients had total remission, three had absence of abdominal disease but discrete findings in thorax and others had less spread disease. ACE levels did not correlate with SUVmax level. Conclusion: FDG PET/CT can be a useful tool for detection of abdominal sarcoidosis and in the evaluation of therapy response in these patients. Awareness of the presence of intra-abdominal sarcoidosis is important in order to prevent long-standing unrecognized disease.


2019 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gloria H Hong ◽  
Ana M Ortega-Villa ◽  
Sally Hunsberger ◽  
Ploenchan Chetchotisakd ◽  
Siriluck Anunnatsiri ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The natural history of anti-interferon-γ (IFN-γ) autoantibody-associated immunodeficiency syndrome is not well understood. Methods Data of 74 patients with anti-IFN-γ autoantibodies at Srinagarind Hospital, Thailand, were collected annually (median follow-up duration, 7.5 years). Annual data for 19 patients and initial data for 4 patients with anti-IFN-γ autoantibodies at the US National Institutes of Health were collected (median follow-up duration, 4.5 years). Anti-IFN-γ autoantibody levels were measured in plasma samples. Results Ninety-one percent of US patients were of Southeast Asian descent; there was a stronger female predominance (91%) in US than Thai (64%) patients. Mycobacterium abscessus (34%) and Mycobacterium avium complex (83%) were the most common nontuberculous mycobacteria in Thailand and the United States, respectively. Skin infections were more common in Thailand (P = .001), whereas bone (P < .0001), lung (P = .002), and central nervous system (P = .03) infections were more common in the United States. Twenty-four percent of Thai patients died, most from infections. None of the 19 US patients with follow-up data died. Anti-IFN-γ autoantibody levels decreased over time in Thailand (P < .001) and the United States (P = .017), with either cyclophosphamide (P = .01) or rituximab therapy (P = .001). Conclusions Patients with anti-IFN-γ autoantibodies in Thailand and the United States had distinct demographic and clinical features. While titers generally decreased with time, anti-IFN-γ autoantibody disease had a chronic clinical course with persistent infections and death. Close long-term surveillance for new infections is recommended.


2020 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 215013272097774
Author(s):  
Stephanie T. Fulleborn ◽  
Paul F. Crawford ◽  
Jeremy T. Jackson ◽  
Christy J.W. Ledford

Introduction Recent evidence reveals that diabetes and prediabetes (preDM) can be reversed to normal glucose regulation (NGR) through significant weight loss, but how physicians clinically identify the principles of partial and complete remission of diabetes is largely unknown. Methods As part of the cross-sectional omnibus survey conducted in March 2019 at a professional annual meeting in the United States, physician participants answered case scenario questions about the diagnosis and documentation of patients with preDM and type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Results Of the registered conference attendees, 387 (72.7%) responded. When presented with the initial case of preDM, 201 physicians (70.8%) selected R73.03 Prediabetes. In a follow-up encounter with improved lab results, 118 physicians (58.7%) indicated that they would not chart any diabetes-related code and 62 (30.8%) would chart preDM again. When presented with the case of T2DM, 256 physicians (90.1%) indicated E11.0–E11.9 Type 2 Diabetes. In the follow-up encounter, only 38 (14.8%) coded a diagnosis reflecting remission from T2DM to prediabetes and 211 (82.4%) charted T2DM. Conclusion Physicians may be reluctant to document diabetes regression as there is little evidence for long-term outcomes and “downgrading” the diagnosis in the medical record may cause screenings to be missed. Documenting this regression in the medical record should communicate the accurate point on the continuum of glucose intolerance with both the patient and the care team.


Author(s):  
T. J. Marini ◽  
S. L. Weiss ◽  
A. Gupta ◽  
Y. T. Zhao ◽  
T. M. Baran ◽  
...  

Abstract Purpose Thyroid ultrasound is a key tool in the evaluation of the thyroid, but billions of people around the world lack access to ultrasound imaging. In this study, we tested an asynchronous telediagnostic ultrasound system operated by individuals without prior ultrasound training which may be used to effectively evaluate the thyroid and improve access to imaging worldwide. Methods The telediagnostic system in this study utilizes volume sweep imaging (VSI), an imaging technique in which the operator scans the target region with simple sweeps of the ultrasound probe based on external body landmarks. Sweeps are recorded and saved as video clips for later interpretation by an expert. Two operators without prior ultrasound experience underwent 8 h of training on the thyroid VSI protocol and the operation of the telemedicine platform. After training, the operators scanned patients at a health center in Lima. Telediagnostic examinations were sent to the United States for remote interpretation. Standard of care thyroid ultrasound was performed by an experienced radiologist at the time of VSI examination to serve as a reference standard. Results Novice operators scanned 121 subjects with the thyroid VSI protocol. Of these exams, 88% were rated of excellent image quality showing complete or near complete thyroid visualization. There was 98.3% agreement on thyroid nodule presence between VSI teleultrasound and standard of care ultrasound (Cohen’s kappa 0.91, P < 0.0001). VSI measured the thyroid size, on average, within 5 mm compared to standard of care. Readers of VSI were also able to effectively characterize thyroid nodules, and there was no significant difference in measurement of thyroid nodule size (P = 0.74) between VSI and standard of care. Conclusion Thyroid VSI telediagnostic ultrasound demonstrated both excellent visualization of the thyroid gland and agreement with standard of care thyroid ultrasound for nodules and thyroid size evaluation. This system could be deployed for evaluation of palpable thyroid abnormalities, nodule follow-up, and epidemiological studies to promote global health and improve the availability of diagnostic imaging in underserved communities.


2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 1027.2-1027
Author(s):  
A. R. Broder ◽  
W. Mowrey ◽  
A. Valle ◽  
B. Goilav ◽  
K. Yoshida ◽  
...  

Background:The development of ESRD due to lupus nephritis is one of the most common and serious complications of SLE. Mortality among SLE ESRD patients is 4-fold higher compared to lupus nephritis patients with preserved renal function1Mortality in SLE ESRD is also twice as high compared with non-SLE ESRD, even though SLE patients develop ESRD at a significantly younger age. In the absence of ESRD specific guidelines, medication utilization in SLE ESRD is unknown.Objectives:The objective of this study was to investigate the real-world current US-wide patterns of medication prescribing among lupus nephritis patients with new onset ESRD enrolled in the United States Renal Disease Systems (USRDS) registry. We specifically focused on HCQ and corticosteroids (CS) as the most used medications to treat SLE.Methods:Inclusion: USRDS patients 18 years and above with SLE as a primary cause of ESRD (International Classification of Diseases, 9thRevision (ICD9) diagnostic code 710.0, previously validated2). who developed ESRD between January 1st, 2006 and July 31, 2011 (to ensure at least 6 months of follow-up in the USRDS). Patients had to be enrolled in Medicare Part D (to capture pharmacy claims). The last follow-up date was defined as either the last date of continuous part D coverage or the end of the study period, Dec 31, 2013.Results:Of the 2579 patients included, 1708 (66%) were HCQ- at baseline, and 871 (34%) were HCQ+ at baseline. HCQ+ patients at baseline had a slightly lower duration of follow-up compared to HCQ- patients at baseline, median (IQR) of 2.32 (1.33, 3.97) years and 2.55 (1.44, 4.25) years, respectively, p= 0.02. During follow-up period, only 778 (30%) continued HCQ either intermittently or continuously to the last follow-up date, 1306 (51%) were never prescribed HCQ after baseline, and 495 (19%) discontinued HCQ before the last follow-up date. Of the 1801 patients who were either never prescribed or discontinued HCQ early after ESRD onset, 713 (40%) were prescribed CS to the end of the follow-up period: 55% were receiving a low dose <10mg/daily, and 43 were receiving moderate dose (10-20mg daily)Conclusion:HCQ may be underprescribed and CS may be overprescribed in SLE ESRD. Changing the current prescribing practices may improve outcomes in SLE ESRDReferences:[1]Yap DY et al., NDT 2012.[2]Broder A et al., AC&R 2016.Acknowledgments :The data reported here have been supplied by the United States Renal Data System (USRDS). The interpretation and reporting of these data are the responsibility of the author(s) and in no way should be seen as an official policy or interpretation of the U.S. government.Funding: :NIH/NIAMS K23 AR068441 (A Broder), NIH/NIAMS R01 AR 057327 and K24 AR 066109 (KH Costenbader)Disclosure of Interests: :Anna R. Broder: None declared, Wenzhu Mowrey: None declared, Anna Valle: None declared, Beatrice Goilav: None declared, Kazuki Yoshida: None declared, Karen Costenbader Grant/research support from: Merck, Consultant of: Astra-Zeneca


2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 1207.2-1207
Author(s):  
A. García Fernández ◽  
A. Briones-Figueroa ◽  
L. Calvo Sanz ◽  
Á. Andreu-Suárez ◽  
J. Bachiller-Corral ◽  
...  

Background:Biological therapy (BT) has changed the treatment and perspectives of JIA patients but little is known about when is the best moment to start BT and the impact of this prompt iniciation.Objectives:To analyze the response to BT of Juvenile Idiophatic Arthritis (JIA) patients according to the time when the BT was started.Methods:A retrospective, descriptive study was conducted on JIA patients followed up in a referal hospital that started BT up to 24 months after diagnosis from 2000 to 2018. Disease activity was measured, at 2 years after diagnosis, according to Wallace criteria for remission (absence of: active arthritis, active uveitis, fever, rash or any other manifestation attributable to JIA, normal CRP and ESR, PGA indicating no active disease) for at least 6 months.Results:55 JIA patients that started BT up to 24 months from diagnosis were analyzed. 69,1% were girls with a median age at diagnosis of 8 years old IQR(3-13), median age at the start of BT of 9 years old IQR(3-13). Regarding JIA categories: 25,5% were Oligoarticular Persistent (OligP), 18,2% Systemic JIA (sJIA), 16,4% Entesitis related Arthritis (ERA), 12,7% Psoriatic Arthritis (APso) and Polyarticular RF- (PolyRF-), 5,5% Oligoarticular Extended (OligE) and Polyarticular RF+ (PolyRF+), 3,6% Undifferentiated (Und). 20% of patients had uveitis during followup. Conventional DMARD (cDMARD) was indicated in 83,6% of patients (95,7% Methotrexate) at diagnosis [median 0 months IQR(0-2,3)]. At the end of followup (2 years) only 30,9% of patients continued with cDMARDs. The main causes of discontinuation were: adverse events (46,7%), remission (36,7%). TNF inhibitors were precribed in 81,8% of patients and 18,2% of patients recieved two BT during the first 2 years from diagnosis. 54,5% of BT were indicated during the first 6 months from diagnosis, 27,3% from 7 to 12 months, 12,7% from 13 to 18 months, 5,5% from 19 to 24 months.After 2 years from diagnosis, 78,2% of patients were on remission and 21,8% active. Among patients with active disease: 75% had arthritis, 16,7% had uveitis and 8,3% had both. There were no differences regarding disease activity among patients with uveitis and neither taking cDMARDs. Regarding JIA categories: 66,7% of OligE, 57,1% of PolyRF- and 57,1% of APso patients were active at 2 years from diagnosis when compared to the other categories (p=0.004).Patients on remission at 24 months from diagnosis started sooner the BT than active patients [CI 95% (0,46-8,29) p=0,029]. The time when the BT was started was correlated to the activity at 2 years (K= 0,294 p=0,029). When the BT was prescribed after 7,5months from diagnosis it was correlated, in a COR curve, with a higher probability of active disease at 2 years (S= 0,67 E= 0,63). There was a correlation, among patients on remission at 2 years, between prompt start of BT and less time to reach remission (K= -0,345 p=0,024). Patients with active disease at 2 years, regardless of moment of BT iniciation, required more BT during follow-up (p=0,002).Conclusion:Prompt iniciation of BT was correlated with a better outcome. JIA patients that started BT early after diagnosis had a higher probability of remission after 2 years. Starting BT after 7,5 months was correlated with a higher probability of active disease at 2 years. Active disease at 24 months was correlated with persistent active disease during follow-up.Disclosure of Interests:None declared


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-36
Author(s):  
Ahmed A. Alhassani ◽  
Frank B. Hu ◽  
Bernard A. Rosner ◽  
Fred K. Tabung ◽  
Walter C. Willett ◽  
...  

ABSTRACT The long-term inflammatory impact of diet could potentially elevate the risk of periodontal disease through modification of systemic inflammation. The aim of the present study was to prospectively investigate the associations between a food based, reduced rank regression (RRR) derived, empirical dietary inflammatory pattern (EDIP) and incidence of periodontitis. The study population was composed of 34,940 men from the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study, who were free of periodontal disease and major illnesses at baseline (1986). Participants provided medical and dental history through mailed questionnaires every 2 years, and dietary data through validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaires every 4 years. We used Cox proportional hazard models to examine the associations between EDIP scores and validated self-reported incidence of periodontal disease over a 24-year follow-up period. No overall association between EDIP and the risk of periodontitis was observed; the hazard ratio comparing the highest EDIP quintile (most proinflammatory diet) to the lowest quintile was 0.99 (95% confidence interval: 0.89 -1.10, p-value for trend = 0.97). A secondary analysis showed that among obese non-smokers (i.e. never and former smokers at baseline), the hazard ratio for periodontitis comparing the highest EDIP quintile to the lowest was 1.39 (95% confidence interval: 0.98 -1.96, p-value for trend = 0.03). In conclusion, no overall association was detected between EDIP and incidence of self-reported periodontitis in the study population. From the subgroups evaluated EDIP was significantly associated with increased risk of periodontitis only among nonsmokers who were obese. Hence, this association must be interpreted with caution.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
SR Thangasami ◽  
JS Prajapati ◽  
GL Dubey ◽  
VR Pandey ◽  
PM Shaniswara ◽  
...  

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Introduction Advances in the immediate management of ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) have led to a dramatic decline in mortality and reduction in hospital length of stay (LOS). We analysed the prognostic value of selected risk models in STEMI treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) and to identify additional parameters to strengthen risk scores in categorizing patients for safe early discharge and to identify parameters prolonging hospital stay. Purpose To assess parameters and risk scores to categorize patients for safe early discharge following STEMI and to assess the composite of death, MI, unstable angina (UA), stroke, unplanned hospitalization at the end of 30 days, 6 months and at 1year follow up. Methods The study included 222 patients, who were diagnosed as STEMI, treated with successful pPCI. The risk scores like TIMI score, GRACE score, ZWOLLE score, CADILLAC score were calculated for all patients from the baseline clinical data collected on admission. Routine blood investigations along with Brain natri-uretic peptide (BNP) were done for all patients. The entire cohort was divided into three groups on the basis of length of stay: ≤3 days (n = 150), 4–5 days (n = 47), and &gt;5 days (n = 25). All-cause mortality and major cardiovascular events (MACEs) were assessed up to 1 year. Results The mean age group (yrs) of the study population was 53.92 ± 12.9. Patients in LOS &lt;3 days had a mean age (yrs) of 52.41 ± 11.74, patients in LOS 4-5 days group had 54.19 ±13.59 and patient with LOS &gt;5 days had 62.52 ± 15.32. The most important parameters that predicted hospital stay in our study are BNP levels OR: 1.003, 95% CI: 1.002-1.004, P &lt; 0.001, GRACE score OR: 1.02 ,95% CI: 1.01-1.03, P &lt; 0.001, TIMI score OR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.18-1.55, P = 0.007, ZWOLLE score OR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.16-1.37, P &lt; 0.001, CADILLAC score OR: 1.24, 95% CI; 1.15-1.3: P &lt; 0.001. 32 (14.4%) patients expired in the study population. 36% patients of LOS &gt;5 days expired in 1year follow up with maximum mortality in the first 6 months. 56% of the patients in LOS &gt; 5 days had an adverse cardiac event in 1 year follow up. Patients in LOS &gt;5 days had increased event rates in 30 days,6 months and in 1 year follow up. Patients with LOS 4-5 days (30%) had increased event rates than patients in LOS &lt; 3 days (19%).Unadjusted Kaplan Meir survival curves for 1 year mortality among hospital survivors showed a significant increase in mortality at 6 months in length of stay&gt; 5 days group. (P value &lt; 0.001). CONCLUSION Long hospital stay after PCI among patients with STEMI was associated with increased long-term all-cause mortality. Addition of BNP to this risk scores can better predict the course of hospital stay and adverse clinical outcomes in follow up. Long hospital stay may be used as a marker to identify patients at higher risk for long-term mortality. Abstract Figure. Kaplan meir survival curve


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