Life Course Adversity and Early Retirement Due to Poor Health

Abstract The relationship between life adversity and physical and mental health is well documented. The present research investigates life course adversity and early retirement due to poor health. Data are from the Health and Retirement Study, including the Life History Mail Survey (LHMS), HRS core surveys, and HRS Psychosocial Leave-Behind surveys. We create measures of childhood financial and social adversity and young-mid adulthood financial and social adversity. Early retirement is defined as self-report of “full” retirement between age 50 and 62. We use a Cox proportional hazards model competing risk framework comparing early retirement when poor health is a major reason for retirement with early retirement for any other reason. Models include covariates for age, gender, marital status, cohort, log household income, and log household wealth. Childhood financial adversity and homelessness in young-mid adulthood increases the instantaneous hazard of early retirement due to poor health.

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Quality of life (QOL) predicts for progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) treated with sunitinib compared to interferon-alpha (IFN-α)

Journal of Clinical Oncology ◽

10.1200/jco.2007.25.18_suppl.6594 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 25 (18_suppl) ◽

pp. 6594-6594 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

D. Cella ◽

J. Z. Li ◽

J. C. Cappelleri ◽

A. Bushmakin ◽

C. Charbonneau ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Kinase Inhibitor ◽

Progression Free Survival ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Self Report ◽

Phase Iii ◽

Health State ◽

Eq Vas

6594 Background: In a recent international, randomized phase III trial, sunitinib malate, an oral multitargeted receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor of VEGFRs, PDGFRs, KIT, RET and FLT3 with both antitumor and antiangiogenic effects, was associated with statistically superior clinical efficacy and superior health-related QOL vs. IFN-a as first-line therapy in patients with mRCC (Motzer et al, Proc ASCO 2006;24:2s [Abstract LBA3]). Here we report a substudy of baseline QOL variables predicting PFS. Methods: 750 mRCC patients were randomized 1:1 to receive either sunitinib 50 mg orally once daily in repeated 6-week cycles (4 weeks on treatment followed by 2 weeks off) or IFN-a (9 MU via subcutaneous injection 3 times weekly). QOL was measured by the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-General (FACT-G), the FACT-Kidney Symptom Index's Disease-Related Symptoms subscale (FKSI-DRS), and the patient self-rated overall health state (EQ-VAS) from the EuroQol Group's EQ-5D self-report questionnaire. For all QOL endpoints, higher scores indicated better outcomes (better QOL or fewer symptoms). Cox proportional-hazards model was used to test which baseline QOL variables predict PFS while controlling for other baseline demographic and clinical factors as well as treatment. Because the three QOL scores are correlated (r=0.61–0.69), three separate univariate models were fitted. Results and Conclusions: All three baseline QOL variables were predictive of PFS: better baseline FACT-G, FKSI-DRS and EQ-VAS scores were associated with longer PFS. When QOL and other baseline variables were controlled in the models, the superior treatment effect of sunitinib on PFS remained robust and large (See the table below). [Table: see text]

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Violent conflict and breastfeeding: the case of Iraq

Conflict and Health ◽

10.1186/s13031-019-0244-7 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Vidya Diwakar ◽

Michael Malcolm ◽

George Naufal

Keyword(s):

Armed Conflict ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Average Rate ◽

Household Wealth ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Violent Conflict ◽

Breastfeeding Duration ◽

Breastfeeding Support ◽

The Relationship

Abstract Background This study explores the relationship between armed conflict and breastfeeding practices of Iraqi mothers. To date, the relationship between violent conflict and breastfeeding is surprisingly understudied. Especially in the Middle East, which is conflict-prone and has a young population, research on war and household behavior is critical for promoting recovery and sustainable development. Methods This study employs a unique pairing of the Iraq Body Count Database and the 2006 and 2011 Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys for Iraq. We use probit models to explore the association between armed conflict and several breastfeeding outcomes – whether a child was ever breastfed, whether a child was breastfed within 1 h after birth, whether a child is currently breastfed, and whether an infant under 6 months of age is exclusively breastfed. Our proxies for conflict intensity are the average rate of conflict-related casualties across the 3 years prior to survey administration and the rate of casualties averaged across the 2 years prior to the birth of the child, in the governorate in which the family resides. We employ a number of other independent variables important for breastfeeding status, including health controls and characteristics of the household, child and mother. We also use a Cox proportional hazards model to study the association between conflict and breastfeeding duration. We complement this analysis with various robustness checks, including disaggregation by year, controls for household wealth and an analysis of breastmilk substitutes and their potential for an interaction with household wealth. Results We find in our main results that increases in conflict-related casualties are associated with a significant decline in the probability that a child was ever breastfed and a decline in the probability that a child is currently breastfeeding. There is no significant association with exclusive breastfeeding or with initiation of breastfeeding within 1 h after birth. This result is robust to alternative measures of conflict, although some coefficients from estimation based on the 2006 subsample are positive and not significant, and reverse causation is a potential source of bias in interpreting cross-sectional feeding patterns. Results on breastfeeding duration are mixed. Our results also suggest an increase in the use of breastfeeding substitutes like formula concurrent to higher levels of conflict among wealthier households. Conclusion The results are informative in the context of designing policy aimed at stabilizing the long-term health and productivity of populations in conflict areas. Infant formula provided with the objective of offering temporary relief creates risks, including reducing the probability and duration of breastfeeding. Attention to the supply of health care and to support systems for women, especially skilled breastfeeding support and targeted support to infants dependent on formula, are matters of the utmost urgency during and after conflict periods.

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Reasons why osteoarthritis predicts mortality: path analysis within a Cox proportional hazards model

RMD Open ◽

10.1136/rmdopen-2019-001048 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 5 (2) ◽

pp. e001048 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Ross Wilkie ◽

Simran Singh Parmar ◽

Milica Blagojevic-Bucknall ◽

Diane Smith ◽

Martin J Thomas ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Primary Care ◽

Path Analysis ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Cox Model ◽

Premature Mortality ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Self Report ◽

Modifiable Factors

ObjectivesTo identify potentially modifiable factors that mediate the association between symptomatic osteoarthritis (OA) and premature mortality.MethodsA population-based prospective cohort study; primary care medical record data were linked to self-report information collected by questionnaire in adults aged 50 years and over (n=10 415). OA was defined by primary care consultation and moderate-to-severe pain interference in daily life. A Cox proportional hazards analysis determined the total effect (TE) of OA on mortality after adjustment for potential confounders. Within the Cox model, path analysis was used to decompose the TE to assess the indirect and direct effects for selected potential mediators (anxiety, depression, unrefreshed sleep and walking frequency). Results are expressed as HRs with 95% CIs derived from bootstrap resampling.ResultsOA was significantly associated with mortality (TE-adjusted HR 1.14; 95% CI 1.00 to 1.29). The indirect effects for walking frequency were 1.05 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.06), depression 1.02 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.03), anxiety 1.01 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.02) and unrefreshed sleep 1.01 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.01).ConclusionsThe analysis indicates that encouraging people to walk and ‘get out and about’ in addition to targeting OA could be protective against excessive mortality. The findings also suggest that depression, anxiety and unrefreshed sleep have a role in premature mortality for people with OA; however, this has low clinical significance.

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Age at Exposure to Parental Suicide and the Subsequent Risk of Suicide in Young People

Crisis ◽

10.1027/0227-5910/a000468 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 39 (1) ◽

pp. 27-36 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Kuan-Ying Lee ◽

Chung-Yi Li ◽

Kun-Chia Chang ◽

Tsung-Hsueh Lu ◽

Ying-Yeh Chen

Keyword(s):

Young People ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Birth Registry ◽

Data Set ◽

Parental Suicide ◽

The Impact ◽

Age At Exposure

Abstract. Background: We investigated the age at exposure to parental suicide and the risk of subsequent suicide completion in young people. The impact of parental and offspring sex was also examined. Method: Using a cohort study design, we linked Taiwan's Birth Registry (1978–1997) with Taiwan's Death Registry (1985–2009) and identified 40,249 children who had experienced maternal suicide (n = 14,431), paternal suicide (n = 26,887), or the suicide of both parents (n = 281). Each exposed child was matched to 10 children of the same sex and birth year whose parents were still alive. This yielded a total of 398,081 children for our non-exposed cohort. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to compare the suicide risk of the exposed and non-exposed groups. Results: Compared with the non-exposed group, offspring who were exposed to parental suicide were 3.91 times (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.10–4.92 more likely to die by suicide after adjusting for baseline characteristics. The risk of suicide seemed to be lower in older male offspring (HR = 3.94, 95% CI = 2.57–6.06), but higher in older female offspring (HR = 5.30, 95% CI = 3.05–9.22). Stratified analyses based on parental sex revealed similar patterns as the combined analysis. Limitations: As only register-based data were used, we were not able to explore the impact of variables not contained in the data set, such as the role of mental illness. Conclusion: Our findings suggest a prominent elevation in the risk of suicide among offspring who lost their parents to suicide. The risk elevation differed according to the sex of the afflicted offspring as well as to their age at exposure.

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Proliferation-dominant high-grade astrocytoma: survival benefit associated with extensive resection of FLAIR abnormality region

Journal of Neurosurgery ◽

10.3171/2018.12.jns182775 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 132 (4) ◽

pp. 998-1005 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Haihui Jiang ◽

Yong Cui ◽

Xiang Liu ◽

Xiaohui Ren ◽

Mingxiao Li ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Survival Benefit ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Characteristic Curve ◽

Extent Of Resection ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

High Grade ◽

Extensive Resection ◽

High Grade Astrocytoma

OBJECTIVEThe aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between extent of resection (EOR) and survival in terms of clinical, molecular, and radiological factors in high-grade astrocytoma (HGA).METHODSClinical and radiological data from 585 cases of molecularly defined HGA were reviewed. In each case, the EOR was evaluated twice: once according to contrast-enhanced T1-weighted images (CE-T1WI) and once according to fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) images. The ratio of the volume of the region of abnormality in CE-T1WI to that in FLAIR images (VFLAIR/VCE-T1WI) was calculated and a receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the optimal cutoff value for that ratio. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the prognostic value of each factor.RESULTSBoth the EOR evaluated from CE-T1WI and the EOR evaluated from FLAIR could divide the whole cohort into 4 subgroups with different survival outcomes (p < 0.001). Cases were stratified into 2 subtypes based on VFLAIR/VCE-T1WIwith a cutoff of 10: a proliferation-dominant subtype and a diffusion-dominant subtype. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significant survival advantage for the proliferation-dominant subtype (p < 0.0001). The prognostic implication has been further confirmed in the Cox proportional hazards model (HR 1.105, 95% CI 1.078–1.134, p < 0.0001). The survival of patients with proliferation-dominant HGA was significantly prolonged in association with extensive resection of the FLAIR abnormality region beyond contrast-enhancing tumor (p = 0.03), while no survival benefit was observed in association with the extensive resection in the diffusion-dominant subtype (p=0.86).CONCLUSIONSVFLAIR/VCE-T1WIis an important classifier that could divide the HGA into 2 subtypes with distinct invasive features. Patients with proliferation-dominant HGA can benefit from extensive resection of the FLAIR abnormality region, which provides the theoretical basis for a personalized resection strategy.

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Association of time to surgery with leg pain after lumbar discectomy: is delayed surgery detrimental?

Journal of Neurosurgery Spine ◽

10.3171/2019.8.spine19613 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 32 (2) ◽

pp. 160-167 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Alessandro Siccoli ◽

Victor E. Staartjes ◽

Marlies P. de Wispelaere ◽

Marc L. Schröder

Keyword(s):

Rating Scale ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Lumbar Discectomy ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Neurological Deficits ◽

Leg Pain ◽

Specific Method ◽

Time To Surgery ◽

Patient Reported

OBJECTIVEWhile it has been established that lumbar discectomy should only be performed after a certain waiting period unless neurological deficits are present, little is known about the association of late surgery with outcome. Using data from a prospective registry, the authors aimed to quantify the association of time to surgery (TTS) with leg pain outcome after lumbar discectomy and to identify a maximum TTS cutoff anchored to the minimum clinically important difference (MCID).METHODSTTS was defined as the time from the onset of leg pain caused by radiculopathy to the time of surgery in weeks. MCID was defined as a minimum 30% reduction in the numeric rating scale score for leg pain from baseline to 12 months. A Cox proportional hazards model was utilized to quantify the association of TTS with MCID. Maximum TTS cutoffs were derived both quantitatively, anchored to the area under the curve (AUC), and qualitatively, based on cutoff-specific MCID rates.RESULTSFrom a prospective registry, 372 patients who had undergone first-time tubular microdiscectomy were identified; 308 of these patients (83%) obtained an MCID. Attaining an MCID was associated with a shorter TTS (HR 0.718, 95% CI 0.546–0.945, p = 0.018). Effect size was preserved after adjustment for potential confounders. The optimal maximum TTS was estimated at 23.5 weeks based on the AUC, while the cutoff-specific method suggested 24 weeks. Discectomy after this cutoff starts to yield MCID rates under 80%. The 24-week cutoff also coincided with the time point after which the specificity for MCID first drops below 50% and after which the negative predictive value for nonattainment of MCID first surpasses ≥ 20%.CONCLUSIONSThe study findings suggest that late lumbar discectomy is linked with poorer patient-reported outcomes and that—in accordance with the literature—a maximum TTS of 6 months should be aimed for.

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Survival of people living with AIDS with or without tuberculosis in Sao Paulo, Brazil

European Journal of Public Health ◽

10.1093/eurpub/ckaa166.835 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽

Author(s):

M V Tancredi ◽

S Sakabe ◽

C S B Domingues ◽

G F M Pereira² ◽

E A Waldman

Keyword(s):

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Universal Access ◽

Sao Paulo ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Capital City ◽

São Paulo ◽

Aids Patients ◽

Probability Of Survival ◽

Aids Diagnosis

Abstract Background To estimate median survival time of AIDS patients, with and without tuberculosis (TB), in a cohort in Sao Paulo, Brazil, and to investigate survival predictors. Methods Retrospective cohort study of AIDS patients above 12 years old, registered at the Ministry of Health AIDS surveillance system between 2003-2007, and followed until 2014. Survival analysis used the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards model to estimate hazard ratios (HR), with respective 95% confidence intervals (CI = 95%). Results 35,515 patients were included, being 4,581 (12.9%) co-infected with TB. Among the latter, probability of survival 12 years after AIDS diagnosis was 95.2%, 82.9%, and 21.9%, respectively for patients receiving at least one third line ARV (HAART2), receiving triple therapy (HAART1) and the last one not on ARV. In the same period, the probability of survival for patients without TB, in the same order as for the therapeutic regimens, was 95.2%, 90.5%, and 40.9%, respectively. The main factors associated with survival, adjusted for the year of diagnosis, were: Living in the city of Sao Paulo (HR = 1,16;IC95% 1,01-1,32), living away from the capital city (HR = 1.43; 95%CI 1.25-1.62); or on the coast (HR = 1.49; 95%CI 1.21-1.82); having TB (HR = 1.70; 95%CI 1.49-1.87); above 49 years old (HR = 1.35; 95%CI 1.18-1.54); black (HR = 1.27; 95%CI 1.12-1.45); IV drug use (HR = 1.73; 95%CI 1.49-2.02); CD4+ below 200 cell/mm³ at AIDS diagnosis (HR = 2.31; 95%CI 1.97-2.72); viral load above 500 copies at AIDS diagnosis (HR = 1.99; 95%CI 1.72-2.30); HAART1 scheme (HR = 1.94; 95%CI 1.47-2.55); no ARV (HR = 8.22; 95%CI 2.95-22.87). Conclusions A large proportion of patients did not receive ARVs or were late diagnosed with AIDS, especially those with TB, whose survival was shorter. Survival is heterogeneous in the state, being lower in regions with higher TB rates. The results point to the need for specific strategies for patients with TB-HIV co-infection. Key messages Tuberculosis is the main cause of death among HIV-infected people, being responsible for one third of deaths in this group and causing a great impact on the survival of this population. The Brazilian policy of universal access to ARV and treatment for TB has increased the survival of AIDS-TB from 22% to 95% and in patients without TB from 50% to 95% up to 12 years after diagnosis.

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Adapting the Default Weighted Survival Analysis Modelling Approach to Model IFRS 9 LGD

Risks ◽

10.3390/risks9060103 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (6) ◽

pp. 103

Author(s):

Morne Joubert ◽

Tanja Verster ◽

Helgard Raubenheimer ◽

Willem D. Schutte

Keyword(s):

Survival Analysis ◽

Financial Reporting ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Survival Curve ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Reporting Standard ◽

International Financial Reporting Standard ◽

Ifrs 9

Survival analysis is one of the techniques that could be used to predict loss given default (LGD) for regulatory capital (Basel) purposes. When using survival analysis to model LGD, a proposed methodology is the default weighted survival analysis (DWSA) method. This paper is aimed at adapting the DWSA method (used to model Basel LGD) to estimate the LGD for International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 9 impairment requirements. The DWSA methodology allows for over recoveries, default weighting and negative cashflows. For IFRS 9, this methodology should be adapted, as the estimated LGD is a function of in the expected credit losses (ECL). Our proposed IFRS 9 LGD methodology makes use of survival analysis to estimate the LGD. The Cox proportional hazards model allows for a baseline survival curve to be adjusted to produce survival curves for different segments of the portfolio. The forward-looking LGD values are adjusted for different macro-economic scenarios and the ECL is calculated for each scenario. These ECL values are probability weighted to produce a final ECL estimate. We illustrate our proposed IFRS 9 LGD methodology and ECL estimation on a dataset from a retail portfolio of a South African bank.

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Risk factors associated with major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events following percutaneous coronary intervention: a 10-year follow-up comparing random survival forest and Cox proportional-hazards model

BMC Cardiovascular Disorders ◽

10.1186/s12872-020-01834-1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Maryam Farhadian ◽

Sahar Dehdar Karsidani ◽

Azadeh Mozayanimonfared ◽

Hossein Mahjub

Keyword(s):

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Coronary Intervention ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Cerebrovascular Events ◽

Long Term Follow Up ◽

Stent Length

Abstract Background Due to the limited number of studies with long term follow-up of patients undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI), we investigated the occurrence of Major Adverse Cardiac and Cerebrovascular Events (MACCE) during 10 years of follow-up after coronary angioplasty using Random Survival Forest (RSF) and Cox proportional hazards models. Methods The current retrospective cohort study was performed on 220 patients (69 women and 151 men) undergoing coronary angioplasty from March 2009 to March 2012 in Farchshian Medical Center in Hamadan city, Iran. Survival time (month) as the response variable was considered from the date of angioplasty to the main endpoint or the end of the follow-up period (September 2019). To identify the factors influencing the occurrence of MACCE, the performance of Cox and RSF models were investigated in terms of C index, Integrated Brier Score (IBS) and prediction error criteria. Results Ninety-six patients (43.7%) experienced MACCE by the end of the follow-up period, and the median survival time was estimated to be 98 months. Survival decreased from 99% during the first year to 39% at 10 years' follow-up. By applying the Cox model, the predictors were identified as follows: age (HR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.05), diabetes (HR = 2.17, 95% CI 1.29–3.66), smoking (HR = 2.41, 95% CI 1.46–3.98), and stent length (HR = 1.74, 95% CI 1.11–2.75). The predictive performance was slightly better by the RSF model (IBS of 0.124 vs. 0.135, C index of 0.648 vs. 0.626 and out-of-bag error rate of 0.352 vs. 0.374 for RSF). In addition to age, diabetes, smoking, and stent length, RSF also included coronary artery disease (acute or chronic) and hyperlipidemia as the most important variables. Conclusion Machine-learning prediction models such as RSF showed better performance than the Cox proportional hazards model for the prediction of MACCE during long-term follow-up after PCI.

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Elevated plasma growth and differentiation factor 15 predicts incident anemia in older adults aged 60 years and older

The Journals of Gerontology Series A ◽

10.1093/gerona/glaa324 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Yuko Yamaguchi ◽

Marta Zampino ◽

Toshiko Tanaka ◽

Stefania Bandinelli ◽

Yusuke Osawa ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Older Adults ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Differentiation Factor ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Increased Risk ◽

The Relationship

Abstract Background Anemia is common in older adults and associated with greater morbidity and mortality. The causes of anemia in older adults have not been completely characterized. Although elevated circulating growth and differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) has been associated with anemia in older adults, it is not known whether elevated GDF-15 predicts the development of anemia. Methods We examined the relationship between plasma GDF-15 concentrations at baseline in 708 non-anemic adults, aged 60 years and older, with incident anemia during 15 years of follow-up among participants in the Invecchiare in Chianti (InCHIANTI) Study. Results During follow-up, 179 (25.3%) participants developed anemia. The proportion of participants who developed anemia from the lowest to highest quartile of plasma GDF-15 was 12.9%, 20.1%, 21.2%, and 45.8%, respectively. Adults in the highest quartile of plasma GDF-15 had an increased risk of developing anemia (Hazards Ratio 1.15, 95% Confidence Interval 1.09, 1.21, P<.0001) compared to those in the lower three quartiles in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for age, sex, serum iron, soluble transferrin receptor, ferritin, vitamin B12, congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus, and cancer. Conclusions Circulating GDF-15 is an independent predictor for the development of anemia in older adults.

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