Rose vs. Rho: a comparison of two approaches to address retrospective patterns in stock assessments

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher M Legault
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Single Model ◽  
Stock Status ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Stock Assessments ◽  
Abundance Trends ◽  
Pros And Cons ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
The Rose

Abstract Two approaches to address retrospective patterns in stock assessments are compared. The Rose approach is an ensemble of models that all remove the retrospective pattern through changes in data, parameter values, or model assumptions. It is time intensive and can result in a wide range of historical abundance trends. The Rho approach modifies the terminal year estimates of a single model that exhibits a retrospective pattern. It is fast and easy to apply but results in a discontinuous time series. Neither approach identifies the source of the retrospective pattern. The pros and cons of these two approaches are compared in terms of catch advice and stock status using four examples with varying strength and direction of retrospective patterns. The choice of which approach to use could be based on time and expertise available to conduct and maintain an assessment, with Rose preferred if a lot of both are available while Rho preferred otherwise. If the Rho approach is used, managers should consider adjusting their control rule or risk buffer to account for the difference between Rose and Rho results shown here.

scholarly journals Response Variability in Balanced Cortical Networks

2006 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 634-659 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Lerchner ◽  
Cristina Ursta ◽  
John Hertz ◽  
Mandana Ahmadi ◽  
Pauline Ruffiot ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mean Field ◽  
Excitatory Input ◽  
Response Variability ◽  
Cortical Column ◽  
Single Model ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
High Connectivity ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Difference ◽  
External Population

We study the spike statistics of neurons in a network with dynamically balanced excitation and inhibition. Our model, intended to represent a generic cortical column, comprises randomly connected excitatory and inhibitory leaky integrate-and-fire neurons, driven by excitatory input from an external population. The high connectivity permits a mean field description in which synaptic currents can be treated as gaussian noise, the mean and autocorrelation function of which are calculated self-consistently from the firing statistics of single model neurons. Within this description, a wide range of Fano factors is possible. We find that the irregularity of spike trains is controlled mainly by the strength of the synapses relative to the difference between the firing threshold and the postfiring reset level of the membrane potential. For moderately strong synapses, we find spike statistics very similar to those observed in primary visual cortex.

scholarly journals Trends in Pacific Canadian groundfish stock status

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean C Anderson ◽  
Brendan M Connors ◽  
Philina A English ◽  
Robyn E Forrest ◽  
Rowan Haigh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Maximum Sustainable Yield ◽  
Sustainable Yield ◽  
Pacific Cod ◽  
Strait Of Georgia ◽  
Individual Transferable Quotas ◽  
Stock Status ◽  
Stock Assessments ◽  
Trawl Surveys

We assembled estimated biomass (B) time series from stock assessments for 24 Pacific Canadian groundfish stocks and modelled average and stock status through 2020 based on biomass relative to each stock's (1) Limit Reference Point (B/LRP), (2) Upper Stock Reference (B/USR), and (3) biomass at maximum sustainable yield (B/BMSY). The overall mean B/LRP in 2020 was 3.2 (95% credible interval [CI]: 2.6-3.9). The overall mean B/USR and B/BMSY in 2020 was 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3-1.9) and 1.4 (95% CI: 1.1-1.7), respectively. Average stock status declined from 1950 to around 2000 and has remained relatively stable since then. The change around 2000 followed the implementation of ITQs (individual transferable quotas) for the trawl fleet and the commencement of the synoptic trawl surveys. As of their last assessment, four stocks (Strait of Georgia Lingcod [Area 4B], coastwide Bocaccio, and inside and outside Quillback Rockfish) had a greater than 5% probability of being below their LRP (i.e., in the "critical zone"); Pacific Cod in Area 3CD had a 4.6% probability. Roughly one-third of stocks had a greater than 1 in 4 chance of being below their USR (i.e., in the "cautious zone"). Conversely, two-thirds of assessed groundfish stocks had a high (>75%) probability of being above the USR (i.e., in the "healthy zone").

scholarly journals Greybox Algorithm Configuration

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie Anastacio
Keyword(s):  
State Of The Art ◽  
Automated Algorithm ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Algorithm Configuration ◽  
Improve Algorithm ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Problem Instances ◽  
The Right ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Configuration Problem

The performance of state-of-the-art algorithms is highly dependent on their parameter values, and choosing the right configuration can make the difference between solving a problem in a few minutes or hours. Automated algorithm configurators have shown their efficiency on a wide range of applications. However, they still encounter limitations when confronted to a large number of parameters to tune or long algorithm running time. We believe that there is untapped knowledge that can be gathered from the elements of the configuration problem, such as the default value in the configuration space, the source code of the algorithm, and the distribution of the problem instances at hand. We aim at utilising this knowledge to improve algorithm configurators.

scholarly journals Extracting groundfish survey indices from the Ocean Biogeographic Information System (OBIS): an example from Fisheries and Oceans Canada

2009 ◽  
Vol 67 (4) ◽  
pp. 638-645 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Ricard ◽  
Robert M. Branton ◽  
Donald W. Clark ◽  
Peter Hurley
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Information System ◽  
Trawl Survey ◽  
Independent Information ◽  
Stock Assessments ◽  
The World ◽  
Abundance Trends ◽  
Selected Subset ◽  
Temporal Abundance ◽  
Trawl Surveys

Abstract Ricard, D., Branton, R. M., Clark, D. W., and Hurley, P. 2010. Extracting groundfish survey indices from the Ocean Biogeographic Information System (OBIS): an example from Fisheries and Oceans Canada. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 638–645. Scientific trawl surveys have been conducted in different regions of the world and by a variety of countries and agencies since the mid-1900s. Although the data are collected in a scientifically and statistically appropriate context and represent an important source of fishery-independent information for agency-specific stock assessments, their use and dissemination has often been limited to the agencies conducting the surveys. In recent years, Internet data portals such as the Ocean Biogeographic Information System have provided an arena for the wider distribution and use of marine fish data. Despite the increased accessibility of such data, their scientific acceptability has been limited by a lack of reproducibility in data analyses. We present a methodology for the computation of time-series of groundfish stock indices using publicly available trawl survey data derived from the Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans Maritimes region. Potential pitfalls associated with the computation of time-series are discussed and proper stratified random estimates of temporal abundance trends are compared with other methods for a selected subset of species. Also, the broader applicability of the methods for datasets collected under similar sampling designs is discussed, along with the reproducibility of the analyses and results.

Photovoltaic power forecasting using wavelet Neuro-Fuzzy for active solar trackers

2021 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 1083-1096
Author(s):  
Stéfano Frizzo Stefenon ◽  
Christopher Kasburg ◽  
Roberto Zanetti Freire ◽  
Fernanda Cristina Silva Ferreira ◽  
Douglas Wildgrube Bertol ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Electric Energy ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Angle Of Incidence ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Generation Capacity ◽  
The Difference

The generation of electric energy by photovoltaic (PV) panels depends on many parameters, one of them is the sun’s angle of incidence. By using solar active trackers, it is possible to maximize generation capacity through real-time positioning. However, if the engines that update the position of the panels use more energy than the difference in efficiency, the solar tracker system becomes ineffective. In this way, a time series forecasting method can be assumed to determine the generation capacity in a pre-established horizon prediction to evaluate if a position update would provide efficient results. Among a wide range of algorithms that can be used in forecasting, this work considered a Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System due to its combined advantages such as smoothness property from Fuzzy systems and adaptability property from neural networks structures. Focusing on time series forecasting, this article presents a model and evaluates the solar prediction capacity using the Wavelet Neuro-Fuzzy algorithm, where Wavelets were included in the model for feature extraction. In this sense, this paper aims to evaluate whether it is possible to obtain reasonable accuracy using a hybrid model for electric power generation forecasting considering solar trackers. The main contributions of this work are related to the efficiency improvement of PV panels. By assuming a hybrid computational model, it is possible to make a forecast and determine if the use of solar tracking is interesting during certain periods. Finally, the proposed model showed promising results when compared to traditional Nonlinear autoregressive model structures.

Comparative Effects of High-Tech Visual Scene Displays and Low-Tech Isolated Picture Symbols on Engagement From Students With Multiple Disabilities

2019 ◽  
Vol 50 (4) ◽  
pp. 693-702 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Holyfield ◽  
Sydney Brooks ◽  
Allison Schluterman
Keyword(s):  
Language Learning ◽  
Augmentative And Alternative Communication ◽  
Visual Analysis ◽  
Multiple Disabilities ◽  
Visual Scene ◽  
Future Research ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Single Subject ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Difference

Purpose Augmentative and alternative communication (AAC) is an intervention approach that can promote communication and language in children with multiple disabilities who are beginning communicators. While a wide range of AAC technologies are available, little is known about the comparative effects of specific technology options. Given that engagement can be low for beginning communicators with multiple disabilities, the current study provides initial information about the comparative effects of 2 AAC technology options—high-tech visual scene displays (VSDs) and low-tech isolated picture symbols—on engagement. Method Three elementary-age beginning communicators with multiple disabilities participated. The study used a single-subject, alternating treatment design with each technology serving as a condition. Participants interacted with their school speech-language pathologists using each of the 2 technologies across 5 sessions in a block randomized order. Results According to visual analysis and nonoverlap of all pairs calculations, all 3 participants demonstrated more engagement with the high-tech VSDs than the low-tech isolated picture symbols as measured by their seconds of gaze toward each technology option. Despite the difference in engagement observed, there was no clear difference across the 2 conditions in engagement toward the communication partner or use of the AAC. Conclusions Clinicians can consider measuring engagement when evaluating AAC technology options for children with multiple disabilities and should consider evaluating high-tech VSDs as 1 technology option for them. Future research must explore the extent to which differences in engagement to particular AAC technologies result in differences in communication and language learning over time as might be expected.

COMBINATORIAL POLYNOMIALLY COMPUTABLE CHARACTERISTICS OF SUBSTITUTIONS AND THEIR PROPERTIES

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 34-41
Author(s):  
VLADIMIR NIKONOV ◽  
◽  
ANTON ZOBOV ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Expectation ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Small Range ◽  
Computational Point ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Bijective Function ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Element Base ◽  
Selection Of

The construction and selection of a suitable bijective function, that is, substitution, is now becoming an important applied task, particularly for building block encryption systems. Many articles have suggested using different approaches to determining the quality of substitution, but most of them are highly computationally complex. The solution of this problem will significantly expand the range of methods for constructing and analyzing scheme in information protection systems. The purpose of research is to find easily measurable characteristics of substitutions, allowing to evaluate their quality, and also measures of the proximity of a particular substitutions to a random one, or its distance from it. For this purpose, several characteristics were proposed in this work: difference and polynomial, and their mathematical expectation was found, as well as variance for the difference characteristic. This allows us to make a conclusion about its quality by comparing the result of calculating the characteristic for a particular substitution with the calculated mathematical expectation. From a computational point of view, the thesises of the article are of exceptional interest due to the simplicity of the algorithm for quantifying the quality of bijective function substitutions. By its nature, the operation of calculating the difference characteristic carries out a simple summation of integer terms in a fixed and small range. Such an operation, both in the modern and in the prospective element base, is embedded in the logic of a wide range of functional elements, especially when implementing computational actions in the optical range, or on other carriers related to the field of nanotechnology.

Generalized Heterodyne Configurations for Photo-induced Force Microscopy

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Le Wang ◽  
Devon Jakob ◽  
Haomin Wang ◽  
Alexis Apostolos ◽  
Marcos M. Pires ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Repetition Rate ◽  
Modulation Frequency ◽  
High Harmonic ◽  
Chemical Imaging ◽  
Heterodyne Detection ◽  
Force Microscopy ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Afm Cantilever

<div>Infrared chemical microscopy through mechanical probing of light-matter interactions by atomic force microscopy (AFM) bypasses the diffraction limit. One increasingly popular technique is photo-induced force microscopy (PiFM), which utilizes the mechanical heterodyne signal detection between cantilever mechanical resonant oscillations and the photo induced force from light-matter interaction. So far, photo induced force microscopy has been operated in only one heterodyne configuration. In this article, we generalize heterodyne configurations of photoinduced force microscopy by introducing two new schemes: harmonic heterodyne detection and sequential heterodyne detection. In harmonic heterodyne detection, the laser repetition rate matches integer fractions of the difference between the two mechanical resonant modes of the AFM cantilever. The high harmonic of the beating from the photothermal expansion mixes with the AFM cantilever oscillation to provide PiFM signal. In sequential heterodyne detection, the combination of the repetition rate of laser pulses and polarization modulation frequency matches the difference between two AFM mechanical modes, leading to detectable PiFM signals. These two generalized heterodyne configurations for photo induced force microscopy deliver new avenues for chemical imaging and broadband spectroscopy at ~10 nm spatial resolution. They are suitable for a wide range of heterogeneous materials across various disciplines: from structured polymer film, polaritonic boron nitride materials, to isolated bacterial peptidoglycan cell walls. The generalized heterodyne configurations introduce flexibility for the implementation of PiFM and related tapping mode AFM-IR, and provide possibilities for additional modulation channel in PiFM for targeted signal extraction with nanoscale spatial resolution.</div>

EVALUASI PROYEKSI DEMAND BARANG DAN PENUMPANG PELABUHAN DI PROVINSI MALUKU

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 101-110
Author(s):  
Adrian Firdaus ◽  
M. Dwi Yoga Sutanto ◽  
Rajin Sihombing ◽  
M. Weldy Hermawan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Projection Method ◽  
Development Plan ◽  
Master Plan ◽  
Port Development ◽  
Loading And Unloading ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Existing Data

Abstract Every port in Indonesia must have a Port Master Plan that contains an integrated port development plan. This study discusses one important aspect in the preparation of the Port Master Plan, namely the projected movement of goods and passengers, which can be used as a reference in determining the need for facilities at each stage of port development. The case study was conducted at a port located in a district in Maluku Province and aims to evaluate the analysis of projected demand for goods and passengers occurring at the port. The projection method used is time series and econometric projection. The projection results are then compared with the existing data in 2018. The results of this study show that the econometric projection gives adequate results in predicting loading and unloading activities as well as the number of passenger arrival and departure in 2018. This is indicated by the difference in the percentage of projection results towards the existing data, which is smaller than 10%. Whereas for loading and unloading activities, time series projections with logarithmic trends give better results than econometric projections. Keywords: port, port master plan, port development, unloading activities  Abstrak Setiap pelabuhan di Indonesia harus memiliki sebuah Rencana Induk Pelabuhan yang memuat rencana pengem-bangan pelabuhan secara terpadu. Studi ini membahas salah satu aspek penting dalam penyusunan Rencana Induk Pelabuhan, yaitu proyeksi pergerakan barang dan penumpang, yang dapat dipakai sebagai acuan dalam penentuan kebutuhan fasilitas di setiap tahap pengembangan pelabuhan. Studi kasus dilakukan pada sebuah pelabuhan yang terletak di sebuah kabupaten di Provinsi Maluku dan bertujuan untuk melakukan evaluasi ter-hadap analisis proyeksi demand barang dan penumpang yang terjadi di pelabuhan tersebut. Metode proyeksi yang dipakai adalah proyeksi deret waktu dan ekonometrik. Hasil proyeksi selanjutnya dibandingkan dengan data eksisting tahun 2018. Hasil studi ini menunjukkan bahwa proyeksi ekonometrik memberikan hasil yang cukup baik dalam memprediksi aktivitas bongkar barang serta jumlah penumpang naik dan turun di tahun 2018. Hal ini diindikasikan dengan selisih persentase hasil proyeksi terhadap data eksisting yang lebih kecil dari 10%. Sedangkan untuk aktivitas muat barang, proyeksi deret waktu dengan tren logaritmik memberikan hasil yang lebih baik daripada proyeksi ekonometrik. Kata-kata kunci: pelabuhan, rencana induk pelabuhan, pengembangan pelauhan, aktivitas bongkar barang

scholarly journals Analogy-Based Crop Yield Forecasts Based on Temporal Similarity of Leaf Area Index

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 3069
Author(s):  
Yadong Liu ◽  
Junhwan Kim ◽  
David H. Fleisher ◽  
Kwang Soo Kim
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Leaf Area Index ◽  
Leaf Area ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Satellite Data ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Current Season ◽  
Wide Range

Seasonal forecasts of crop yield are important components for agricultural policy decisions and farmer planning. A wide range of input data are often needed to forecast crop yield in a region where sophisticated approaches such as machine learning and process-based models are used. This requires considerable effort for data preparation in addition to identifying data sources. Here, we propose a simpler approach called the Analogy Based Crop-yield (ABC) forecast scheme to make timely and accurate prediction of regional crop yield using a minimum set of inputs. In the ABC method, a growing season from a prior long-term period, e.g., 10 years, is first identified as analogous to the current season by the use of a similarity index based on the time series leaf area index (LAI) patterns. Crop yield in the given growing season is then forecasted using the weighted yield average reported in the analogous seasons for the area of interest. The ABC approach was used to predict corn and soybean yields in the Midwestern U.S. at the county level for the period of 2017–2019. The MOD15A2H, which is a satellite data product for LAI, was used to compile inputs. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of crop yield forecasts was <10% for corn and soybean in each growing season when the time series of LAI from the day of year 89 to 209 was used as inputs to the ABC approach. The prediction error for the ABC approach was comparable to results from a deep neural network model that relied on soil and weather data as well as satellite data in a previous study. These results indicate that the ABC approach allowed for crop yield forecast with a lead-time of at least two months before harvest. In particular, the ABC scheme would be useful for regions where crop yield forecasts are limited by availability of reliable environmental data.

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