Coarse, Efficient Decision-Making

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 3006-3044
Author(s):  
Michael Mandler
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Rational Choice ◽  
Marginal Cost ◽  
Choice Functions ◽  
Weighted Vote ◽  
Cognitive Limitations ◽  
Efficient Option ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Rational Preferences

Abstract To minimize the cost of making decisions, an agent should use criteria to sort alternatives and each criterion should sort coarsely. To decide on a movie, for example, an agent could use one criterion that orders movies by genre categories, another by director categories, and so on, with a small number of categories in each case. The agent then needs to aggregate the criterion orderings, possibly by a weighted vote, to arrive at choices. As criteria become coarser (each criterion has fewer categories) decision-making costs fall, even though an agent must then use more criteria. The most efficient option is consequently to select the binary criteria with two categories each. This result holds even when the marginal cost of using additional categories diminishes to 0. The extensive use of coarse criteria in practice may therefore be a result of optimization rather than cognitive limitations. Binary criteria also generate choice functions that maximize rational preferences: decision-making efficiency implies rational choice.

scholarly journals Divided attention impairs detection of simple visual features

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amelia Haruka Harrison ◽  
sam ling ◽  
Joshua J. Foster
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Divided Attention ◽  
Marginal Cost ◽  
Perceptual Processing ◽  
Visual Features ◽  
Target Presence ◽  
Perceptual Decision Making ◽  
Substantial Evidence ◽  
Single Location ◽  
The Cost

Covert spatial attention allows us to prioritize processing at relevant locations. There is substantial evidence that perception is poorer when attention is distributed across multiple locations than when attention is focused on a single location. However, recent work suggests that may not always be the case: divided attention does not appear to impair detection of simple visual features that are represented in primary visual cortex. Here, we re-examined this possibility. In two experiments, observers detected a simple target (a vertical Gabor), and we manipulated whether attention was focused at one location (focal-cue condition) or distributed across two locations (distributed-cue condition). In Experiment 1, targets could appear independently at each location. Thus, observers needed to judge target presence for each location separately in the distributed-cue condition. Under these conditions, we found a robust cost of dividing attention. In this experiment, the cost of dividing attention could reflect either a limit in perceptual processing or a limit in decision making. Therefore, in Experiment 2, we simplified the task to more directly test whether dividing attention impairs perceptual processing of the target. Specifically, only one target could appear on each trial, such that observers made the exact same decision in both conditions (“was a target present?”). Here, we found a marginal cost of dividing attention on performance, that was weaker than the cost in Experiment 1. Together, our results suggest that divided attention does impair detection of simple visual features, but that this cost is primarily due to limits in post-perceptual decision making.

scholarly journals Substantiation of projected costs of investment and construction projects

Vestnik MGSU ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 1693-1707
Author(s):  
Pavel A. Zhuravlev ◽  
Artur M. Marukyan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Marginal Cost ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Life Cycles ◽  
Similar Construction ◽  
Investment Value ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Project Documentation ◽  
The Cost

Introduction. Investment value assessment, investment decision making, and successful implementation of investment and construction projects at all stages of their life cycles depend on high-quality feasibility studies focused on budget investments. The purpose of the work is to substantiate budget investments (calculation of the estimated (marginal) cost) by means of modeling and ensuring the compliance between the cost of similar types of work at other construction facilities and requested capacity values or types of work specified in design assignments or preliminary project documentation packages. Materials and methods. The co-authors analyzed the technical requirements and conditions affecting pre-project solutions (engineering studies), as well as the feasibility and expediency of the project implementation. The calculation of projected (marginal) project costs performed to substantiate budget investments in accordance with established administrative/territorial, organizational, technical and technological pre-design solutions and alternative engineering options, is implemented by means of modeling the costs to be incurred and assignments fulfilled at a similar construction facility. Results. Budget investments are substantiated by the analysis of the estimated (marginal) cost, performed on the basis of cost parameters and types of works performed at a similar construction facility and with regard for the features and requirements set in the design assignment and pre-project documentation. Conclusions. The significance of the research project consists in the practical application of the process of modeling the cost of similar construction facilities in the course of compiling a package of documents to substantiate the investments to be made, assess the investment value and make a contribution to investment decision making.

Emotional Choices

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin Markwica
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Choice Behavior ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
Cuban Missile Crisis ◽  
Coercive Diplomacy ◽  
The Core ◽  
Present Book ◽  
Action Model ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Dynamic Interplay

In coercive diplomacy, states threaten military action to persuade opponents to change their behavior. The goal is to achieve a target’s compliance without incurring the cost in blood and treasure of military intervention. Coercers typically employ this strategy toward weaker actors, but targets often refuse to submit and the parties enter into war. To explain these puzzling failures of coercive diplomacy, existing accounts generally refer to coercers’ perceived lack of resolve or targets’ social norms and identities. What these approaches either neglect or do not examine systematically is the role that emotions play in these encounters. The present book contends that target leaders’ affective experience can shape their decision-making in significant ways. Drawing on research in psychology and sociology, the study introduces an additional, emotion-based action model besides the traditional logics of consequences and appropriateness. This logic of affect, or emotional choice theory, posits that target leaders’ choice behavior is influenced by the dynamic interplay between their norms, identities, and five key emotions, namely fear, anger, hope, pride, and humiliation. The core of the action model consists of a series of propositions that specify the emotional conditions under which target leaders are likely to accept or reject a coercer’s demands. The book applies the logic of affect to Nikita Khrushchev’s decision-making during the Cuban missile crisis in 1962 and Saddam Hussein’s choice behavior in the Gulf conflict in 1990–91, offering a novel explanation for why coercive diplomacy succeeded in one case but not in the other.

scholarly journals Economic Value of Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts at Incheon Airport, South Korea

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 6965
Author(s):  
In-Gyum Kim ◽  
Hye-Min Kim ◽  
Dae-Geun Lee ◽  
Byunghwan Lim ◽  
Hee-Choon Lee
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Fuel Efficiency ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Loss Model ◽  
Total Budget ◽  
The Cost

Meteorological information at an arrival airport is one of the primary variables used to determine refueling of discretionary fuel. This study evaluated the economic value of terminal aerodrome forecasts (TAF), which has not been previously quantitatively analyzed in Korea. The analysis data included 374,716 international flights that arrived at Incheon airport during 2017–2019. A cost–loss model was used for the analysis, which is a methodology to evaluate forecast value by considering the cost and loss that users can expect, considering the decision-making result based on forecast utilization. The value was divided in terms of improving fuel efficiency and reducing CO2 emissions. The results of the analysis indicate that the annual average TAF value for Incheon Airport was approximately 2.2 M–20.1 M USD under two hypothetical rules of refueling of discretionary fuel. This value is up to 26.2% higher than the total budget of 16.3 M USD set for the production of aviation meteorological forecasts by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Further, it is up to 10 times greater than the 2 M USD spent on aviation meteorological information fees collected by the KMA in 2018.

scholarly journals A day in the life: a qualitative study of clinical decision-making and uptake of neurorehabilitation technology

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Courtney Celian ◽  
Veronica Swanson ◽  
Maahi Shah ◽  
Caitlin Newman ◽  
Bridget Fowler-King ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Clinical Decision Making ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Clinical Decision ◽  
Relative Advantage ◽  
Personal Attributes ◽  
Design Work ◽  
Cognitive Limitations ◽  
Knowledge And Beliefs ◽  
Cord Injury

Abstract Background Neurorehabilitation engineering faces numerous challenges to translating new technologies, but it is unclear which of these challenges are most limiting. Our aim is to improve understanding of rehabilitation therapists’ real-time decision-making processes on the use of rehabilitation technology (RT) in clinical treatment. Methods We used a phenomenological qualitative approach, in which three OTs and two PTs employed at a major, technology-encouraging rehabilitation hospital wrote vignettes from a written prompt describing their RT use decisions during treatment sessions with nine patients (4 with stroke, 2 traumatic brain injury, 1 spinal cord injury, 1 with multiple sclerosis). We then coded the vignettes using deductive qualitative analysis from 17 constructs derived from the RT literature and the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR). Data were synthesized using summative content analysis. Results Of the constructs recorded, the five most prominent are from CFIR determinants of: (i) relative advantage, (ii) personal attributes of the patients, (iii) clinician knowledge and beliefs of the device/intervention, (iv) complexity of the devices including time and setup, and (v) organizational readiness to implement. Therapists characterized candidate RT as having a relative disadvantage compared to conventional treatment due to lack of relevance to functional training. RT design also often failed to consider the multi-faceted personal attributes of the patients, including diagnoses, goals, and physical and cognitive limitations. Clinicians’ comfort with RT was increased by their previous training but was decreased by the perceived complexity of RT. Finally, therapists have limited time to gather, setup, and use RT. Conclusions Despite decades of design work aimed at creating clinically useful RT, many lack compatibility with clinical translation needs in inpatient neurologic rehabilitation. New RT continue to impede the immediacy, versatility, and functionality of hands-on therapy mediated treatment with simple everyday objects.

scholarly journals The Analysis of Small Investors’ Demands on a Thermal Insulation System for a Family House: A Case Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 2491
Author(s):  
Alena Tažiková ◽  
Zuzana Struková ◽  
Mária Kozlovská
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Thermal Insulation ◽  
Construction Cost ◽  
Environmental Cost ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Insulation System ◽  
Insulation Systems ◽  
Small Investors ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Family House

This study deals with small investors’ demands on thermal insulation systems when choosing the most suitable solution for a family house. By 2050, seventy percent of current buildings, including residential buildings, are still expected to be in operation. To reach carbon neutrality, it is necessary to reduce operational energy consumption and thus reduce the related cost of building operations and the cost of the life cycle of buildings. One solution is to adapt envelopes of buildings by proper insulation solutions. To choose an optimal thermal insulation system that will reduce energy consumption of building, it is necessary to consider the environmental cost of insulation materials in addition to the construction cost of the materials. The environmental cost of a material depends on the carbon footprint from the initial origin of the material. This study presents the results of a multi-criteria decision-making analysis, where five different contractors set the evaluation criteria for selection of the optimal thermal insulation system. In their decision-making, they involved the requirements of small investors. The most common requirements were selected: the construction cost, the construction time (represented by the total man-hours), the thermal conductivity coefficient, the diffusion resistance factor, and the reaction to fire. The confidences of the criteria were then determined with the help of the pairwise comparison method. This was followed by multi-criteria decision-making using the method of index coefficients, also known as the method of basic variant. The multi-criteria decision-making included thermal insulation systems based on polystyrene, mineral wool, thermal insulation plaster, and aerogels’ nanotechnology. As a result, it was concluded that, currently, in Slovakia, small investors emphasize the cost of material and the coefficient of thermal conductivity and they do not care as much about the carbon footprint of the material manufacturing, the importance of which is mentioned in this study.

scholarly journals Application of the theory of decision making under risk and uncertainty at modelling of costs

2010 ◽  
Vol 56 (No. 5) ◽  
pp. 201-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Beranová ◽  
D. Martinovičová
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Financial Accounting ◽  
Cost Functions ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Managerial Decision ◽  
Managerial Decision Making ◽  
Bayesian Theorem ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Cost

The costs functions are mentioned mostly in the relation to the Break-even Analysis where they are presented in the linear form. But there exist several different types and forms of cost functions. Fist of all, it is necessary to distinguish between the short-run and long-run cost function that are both very important tools of the managerial decision making even if each one is used on a different level of management. Also several methods of estimation of the cost function's parameters are elaborated in the literature. But all these methods are based on the past data taken from the financial accounting while the financial accounting is not able to separate the fixed and variable costs and it is also strongly adjusted to taxation in the many companies. As a tool of the managerial decision making support, the cost functions should provide a vision to the future where many factors of risk and uncertainty influence economic results. Consequently, these random factors should be considered in the construction of cost functions, especially in the long-run. In order to quantify the influences of these risks and uncertainties, the authors submit the application of the Bayesian Theorem.

scholarly journals ANN-Based Decision Making in Station Keeping for Geotechnical Drilling Vessel

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 596
Author(s):  
Murugan Ramasamy ◽  
Mohammed Abdul Hannan ◽  
Yaseen Adnan Ahmed ◽  
Arun Kr Dev
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Water Depth ◽  
Business Models ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Station Keeping ◽  
Operational Information ◽  
Effective Option ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Cost Factors

Offshore vessels (OVs) often require precise station-keeping and some vessels, for example, vessels involved in geotechnical drilling, generally use Spread Mooring (SM) or Dynamic Positioning (DP) systems. Most of these vessels are equipped with both systems to cover all ranges of water depths. However, determining which system to use for a particular operational scenario depends on many factors and requires significant balancing in terms of cost-benefit. Therefore, this research aims to develop a platform that will determine the cost factors for both the SM and DP station-keeping systems. Operational information and cost data are collected for several field operations, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are trained using those data samples. After that, the trained ANN is used to predict the components of cost for any given environmental situation, fieldwork duration and water depth. Later, the total cost is investigated against water depth for both DP and SM systems to determine the most cost-effective option. The results are validated using two operational scenarios for a specific geotechnical vessel. This decision-making algorithm can be further developed by adding up more operational data for various vessels and can be applied in the development of sustainable decision-making business models for OVs operators.

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