scholarly journals Economic Value of Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts at Incheon Airport, South Korea

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 6965
Author(s):  
In-Gyum Kim ◽  
Hye-Min Kim ◽  
Dae-Geun Lee ◽  
Byunghwan Lim ◽  
Hee-Choon Lee
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Fuel Efficiency ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Loss Model ◽  
Total Budget ◽  
The Cost

Meteorological information at an arrival airport is one of the primary variables used to determine refueling of discretionary fuel. This study evaluated the economic value of terminal aerodrome forecasts (TAF), which has not been previously quantitatively analyzed in Korea. The analysis data included 374,716 international flights that arrived at Incheon airport during 2017–2019. A cost–loss model was used for the analysis, which is a methodology to evaluate forecast value by considering the cost and loss that users can expect, considering the decision-making result based on forecast utilization. The value was divided in terms of improving fuel efficiency and reducing CO2 emissions. The results of the analysis indicate that the annual average TAF value for Incheon Airport was approximately 2.2 M–20.1 M USD under two hypothetical rules of refueling of discretionary fuel. This value is up to 26.2% higher than the total budget of 16.3 M USD set for the production of aviation meteorological forecasts by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Further, it is up to 10 times greater than the 2 M USD spent on aviation meteorological information fees collected by the KMA in 2018.

scholarly journals Decide Now or Wait for the Next Forecast? A Decision Framework Based on an Extension of the Cost-Loss Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Jewson ◽  
Sebastian Scher ◽  
Gabriele Messori
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Framework ◽  
Loss Model ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Accurate Forecast ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Alternative Decision ◽  
Normally Distributed

Users of meteorological forecasts are often faced with the question of whether to make a decision now based on the current forecast or wait for the next and hopefully more accurate forecast before making the decision. One would imagine that the answer to this question should depend on the extent to which there is a benefit in making the decision now rather than later, combined with an understanding of how the skill of the forecast improves, and information about the possible size and nature of forecast changes. We extend the well-known cost-loss model for forecast-based decision making to capture an idealized version of this situation. We find that within this extended cost-loss model, the question of whether to decide now or wait depends on two specific aspects of the forecast, both of which involve probabilities of probabilities. We derive an algorithm for calculating these two probabilities for the case of normally distributed weather or climate forecasts and apply it to a series of synthetic weather forecasts of temperature. We find that the algorithm leads to better decisions relative to three simpler alternative decision-making schemes.

Bayesian Approach to Decision Making Using Ensemble Weather Forecasts

2006 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 220-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard W. Katz ◽  
Martin Ehrendorfer
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prior Distribution ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Bayesian Estimator ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Ensemble Size ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Cost

Abstract The economic value of ensemble-based weather or climate forecasts is generally assessed by taking the ensembles at “face value.” That is, the forecast probability is estimated as the relative frequency of occurrence of an event among a limited number of ensemble members. Despite the economic value of probability forecasts being based on the concept of decision making under uncertainty, in effect, the decision maker is assumed to ignore the uncertainty in estimating this probability. Nevertheless, many users are certainly aware of the uncertainty inherent in a limited ensemble size. Bayesian prediction is used instead in this paper, incorporating such additional forecast uncertainty into the decision process. The face-value forecast probability estimator would correspond to a Bayesian analysis, with a prior distribution on the actual forecast probability only being appropriate if it were believed that the ensemble prediction system produces perfect forecasts. For the cost–loss decision-making model, the economic value of the face-value estimator can be negative for small ensemble sizes from a prediction system with a level of skill that is not sufficiently high. Further, this economic value has the counterintuitive property of sometimes decreasing as the ensemble size increases. For a more plausible form of prior distribution on the actual forecast probability, which could be viewed as a “recalibration” of face-value forecasts, the Bayesian estimator does not exhibit this unexpected behavior. Moreover, it is established that the effects of ensemble size on the reliability, skill, and economic value have been exaggerated by using the face-value, instead of the Bayesian, estimator.

scholarly journals ANALISIS MATEMATIS DAN EKONOMIS PENGGUNAAN METANOL DAN ETANOL PADA KOMPOR “HD”

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 50
Author(s):  
DWI PRIYO UTOMO
Keyword(s):  
Total Energy ◽  
Mathematical Analysis ◽  
Fuel Efficiency ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Energy Requirements ◽  
Business World ◽  
Fuel Prices ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Bioethanol Fuel

High energy requirements result in increased fuel prices. It is quite an impact on all sectorsmainly engaged in the business world, because the cost of increasing production withoutincreasing the purchasing power offset market. One effort that can be done is the use of alternativefuels economical. The question is bioethanol fuel, methanol and ethanol that requiresan appropriate stove design for the fuel. To determine the level of fuel efficiency is needed stoveheaters called “HD”. The purpose of this study was to determine the economic value of fueluse of methanol and ethanol on the stove “HD”, particularly in heating the chicken coop. Theme thod used to determine the level of efficiency in the use of methanol and ethanol fuel is amethod of boiling water. Measurements carried out on several parameters, namely: the volumeof water in a saucepan, water temperature before it is heated, the use of heavy fuel, fueldensity, temperature difference, the total energy absorbed, the amount of energy absorbed, theminimum energy required, and the amount of water boiled. Based on mathematical analysis,concluded that the use of fuel ethanol has a boiling speeds higher than methanol. Although thetime of boiling methanol fuel longer, but the use of methanol fuel is more economical. The useof methanol fuel content of 85% is more economical because of savings significantly which is Rp544,984, 00 for broiler farms per 1000 larvae in one period of 40 days.

scholarly journals Decide Now or Wait for the Next Forecast? A Decision Framework Based on an Extension of the Cost-Loss Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Jewson ◽  
Sebastian Scher ◽  
Gabriele Messori
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Loss Model ◽  
Normal Distributions ◽  
Climate Forecasts ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Accurate Forecast ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Analytical Expressions ◽  
Alternative Decision ◽  
Special Case

Users of meteorological forecasts are often faced with the question of whether to make a decision now based on the current forecast or whether to wait for the next and hopefully more accurate forecast before making the decision. One would imagine that the answer to this question should depend on the extent to which there is a benefit in making the decision now rather than later, combined with an understanding of how the skill of the forecast improves, and information about the possible size and nature of forecast changes. We extend the well-known cost-loss model for forecast-based decision making to capture an idealized version of this situation. We find that within this extended cost-loss model, the question of whether to decide now or wait depends on two specific aspects of the forecast, both of which involve probabilities of probabilities. For the special case of weather and climate forecasts in the form of normal distributions we derive a simulation algorithm, and equivalent analytical expressions, for calculating these two probabilities. We apply the algorithm to forecasts of temperature and find that the algorithm leads to better decisions relative to three simpler alternative decision-making schemes. Similar problems have been studied in many other fields, and we explore some of the connections.

scholarly journals Reduction of CO2 Emissions and Cost Analysis of Ultra-Low Viscosity Engine Oil

Lubricants ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keita Ishizaki ◽  
Masaru Nakano
Keyword(s):  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Fuel Efficiency ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Base Stock ◽  
Engine Oil ◽  
Engine Oils ◽  
Low Viscosity ◽  
Reduction Of Co2 ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Vehicle Fuel Efficiency

This study is focused on the reduction of CO2 emissions and costs associated with ultra-low viscosity (ULV) engine oils for passenger vehicles. Specifically, the reduction in life cycle CO2 (LCCO2) emissions from lower-viscosity engine oil and the oil drain interval (ODI) extension were estimated taking into account both mineral engine oil and synthetic engine oil. Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness of ULV engine oils were investigated by performing base-stock cost analysis. When the volatility limit of the Noack test (American Society for testing and materials (ASTM) D5800) was set to 15 wt %, the results indicated that the lower limit of kinematic viscosity at 100 °C (KV100) for mineral engine oil (with Group-III base-stock) and synthetic engine oil (with polyalphaolefin (PAO) base-stock) were approximately 5.3 and 4.5 mm2/s, respectively. Compared to conventional 0W-16 mineral engine oil (KV100 6.2 mm2/s), the effect of reducing LCCO2 emissions on ULV mineral engine oil (ULV-Mineral, KV100 5.3 mm2/s) was estimated at 0.6%, considering 1.5–1.8 L gasoline engines in New European Driving Cycles (NEDC) mode. ULV-Mineral, which continues to use a mineral base-stock, is considered highly cost-effective since its cost is similar to the conventional 0W-16 mineral engine oil. On the other hand, compared with ULV-Mineral, the vehicle fuel efficiency improvement from the use of ULV synthetic engine oil (ULV-PAO, KV100 4.5 mm2/s) was estimated to be 0.5%. However, considering CO2 emissions during engine oil production, the reduction of LCCO2 emission from ULV-PAO compared with ULV-Mineral was estimated to be only 0.1% or less using 2030 standards (assuming a vehicle fuel efficiency of 66.5 g-CO2/km) when ODI is set equivalent (7500 km) to mineral engine oil. As a result, ULV-PAO’s cost-effectiveness, considering the cost increase of PAO base-stock, was found to be nominal. Contrariwise, when the characteristics of PAO base-stock with higher oxidation stability are used comparatively with the mineral base-stock while extending the ODI to 15,000 km, the effect of reducing LCCO2 emissions of ULV-PAO was estimated to be 0.7% in 2030, making ULV-PAO a competitive and cost-effective alternative. In other words, the popularization of synthetic engine oil toward 2030 will require the consideration of both viscosity reduction and ODI extension.

LIFE SKILLS EDUCATION FOR SCHOOL DROP OUTS IN TAMAN SARI, DISTRICT BOGOR REGENCY

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 46
Author(s):  
Stefani Nawati EKORESTI
Keyword(s):  
Life Skills ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Skills Training ◽  
Poor People ◽  
Housing Conditions ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Skills Education ◽  
Work Done ◽  
Drop Outs ◽  
Life Skills Education

Taman Sari Sub-District, Bogor Regency has the potential for fertile soil. But these lands have not been tilled properly. Narrow housing conditions, especially for poor people, do not allow residents to plant crops. Causing the lack of consumption of vegetables; which causes residents become easily sick. In addition, there is also a lot of plastic waste, especially bottled drinking water and other things that come from tourists and fishermen who have not been processed. This condition gave rise to the idea to provide life skills training in making vertical gardens, hydroponic plants and waste management. Besides the need for makeup and haircutting skills also needed especially for orphans fostered by Yasayan Usawatun Hasanah. Community Service Activities (PkM) aims to foster community awareness of the cleanliness of the environment and empower citizens to be more creative and entrepreneurial. Therefore, in addition to the types of activities requested by the residents, UPBJJ-UT Bogor will also teach about identifying the economic value of the work done in the form of determining the cost of goods sold / production. This activity was attended by 50 orphans and it ran smoothly and successfully. Now orphans already have life skills that hope can lift their economy.

strategi dalam pengambilan keputusan

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suci Handayani Handayani ◽  
Hade Afriansyah
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Imperfect Information ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Administrative Process ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
Information Time ◽  
Complex Matter ◽  
General Individuals

Decision making is one element of economic value, especially in the era of globalization, and if it is not acceptable in the decision making process, we will be left behind. According to Robins, (2003: 173), Salusu, (2000: 47), and Razik and Swanson, (1995: 476) say that decision making can be interpreted as a process of choosing a number of alternatives, how to act in accordance with concepts, or rules in solving problems to achieve individual or group goals that have been formulated using a number of specific techniques, approaches and methods and achieve optimal levels of acceptance.Decision making in organizations whether a decision is made for a person or group, the nature of the decision is often determined by rules, policies, prescribed, instructions that have been derived or practices that apply. To understand decision making within the organization it is useful to view decision making as part of the overall administrative process. In general, individuals tend to use simple strategies, even if in any complex matter, to get the desired solution, because the solution is limited by imperfect information, time and costs, limited thinking and psychological stress experienced by decision makers.

FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PENDAPATAN USAHATANI KACANG TANAH DI KECAMATAN SEMAU KABUPATEN KUPANG

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-33
Author(s):  
Deni K.L. Mudin ◽  
Paulus Un ◽  
Lika Bernadina
Keyword(s):  
Social Life ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Labor Costs ◽  
Land Area ◽  
Average Income ◽  
Dry Land ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Total Average

ABSTRACT Peanuts are one of the high economic value commodities in the dry land area. This commodity also contributes to the social life of the dry land area. This research has been conducted in Semau Sub-district, Kupang Regency, with the aim to determine the amount of income, break event point (BEP), R / C ratio, efficiency of capital use and factors that affect the income of peanuts farming, with the number of farmer respondents as many as 92 people , simple randomly selected. Data that has been collected by survey, library and interview methods; analyzed quantitatively-descriptive using regression methods. The results showed that the total average income of peanut farming in the study location was IDR 1,739,895 with a total average income of IDR 3,498,261 and a total average cost of IDR 1,758,366. While the break event point average of production is 147 Kg and the break event point price is IDR. 6.509, while for the total average the R / C ratio is 1.99. With factors that affect income are production (X1), seed costs (X2), and labor costs (X3). From the regression results with the Cobb-Douglass function the coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.822 with the meaning that variations in independent variables such as production, seed costs and labor costs explain the dependent variable namely income (Y) of 82.20% and the rest 17.80 % is explained by variables outside of the variables analyzed. From the results of the F test (diversity test) it was found that the factors X1, X2, and X3 had a significant effect on income at ⍺ 1%, then accept H1 at least one of: βi ≠ 0. Whereas the results of the t test (partial test) obtained that factors significant effect on income, namely production (X1) and labor costs (X2), while the cost of seeds (X3) does not significantly affect income.

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