Epochal Transitions

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
Vaclav Smil
Keyword(s):  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Mass Scale ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Environmental Consequences ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Global Population

The modern world has been created by five relatively rapid and interconnected transitions. They led to temporarily high growth rates of the global population and, eventually, to much reduced fertility, longer life expectancies, and mass-scale urbanization. Increased agricultural productivity eliminated famines, reduced undernutrition, and resulted in a surfeit and waste of food in affluent countries. Transition from traditional biofuels to fossil fuels brought large increases of per capita energy supply and higher efficiencies of energy conversion, along with new powerful machines. Economic growth reached unprecedented rates, transformed sectoral contribution, created material abundance, and enabled high levels of mobility and instant communication. Environmental consequences of these transitions range from land-use changes to many forms of pollution and to global climate change. Future transitions have to address many problems created by our past successes and failures, but given the magnitude of the challenges, they will have to unfold gradually.

Grand Transitions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vaclav Smil
Keyword(s):  
Economic Transition ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Animal Husbandry ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Mass Scale ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Environmental Consequences ◽  
Complex Interactions ◽  
Dietary Transition ◽  
Residential Pattern

The modern world was created through the combination and complex interactions of five grand transitions. First, the demographic transition changed the total numbers, dynamics, structure, and residential pattern of populations. The agricultural and dietary transition led to the emergence of highly productive cropping and animal husbandry (subsidized by fossil energies and electricity), a change that eliminated famines, reduced malnutrition, and improved the health of populations but also resulted in enormous food waste and had many environmental consequences. The energy transition brought the world from traditional biomass fuels and human and animal labor to fossil fuel, ever more efficient electricity, lights, and motors, all of which transformed both agricultural and industrial production and enabled mass-scale mobility and instant communication. Economic transition has been marked by relatively high growth rates of total national and global product, by fundamental structural transformation (from farming to industries to services), and by an increasing share of humanity living in affluent societies, enjoying unprecedented quality of life. These transitions have made many intensifying demands on the environment, resulting in ecosystemic degradation, loss of biodiversity, pollution, and eventually change on the planetary level, with global warming being the most worrisome development. This book traces the genesis of these transitions, their interactions and complicated progress as well as their outcomes and impacts, explaining how the modern world was made—and then offers a forward-thinking examination of some key unfolding transitions and appraising their challenges and possible results.

Outcomes and Outlooks

2021 ◽  
pp. 244-296
Author(s):  
Vaclav Smil
Keyword(s):  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
High Mobility ◽  
Economic Structure ◽  
Mass Scale ◽  
Energy Structure ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Realistic Assessment ◽  
Global Population

The list of accomplishments resulting from the five grand transitions is both long and impressive. Unprecedented rates and scales of change multiplied population numbers, changed population dynamics; eliminated famines and improved nutrition; raised energy consumption to levels assuring high quality of life, high mobility, and mass-scale instant communication; nearly ended hard physical labor; significantly accelerated economic growth; transformed economic structure; and made material abundance affordable. But there has been a significant cost in terms of many impacts on the biosphere. The coming transition will be challenging not only because of the still-growing global population, significant economic inequalities, and the need to extend the benefits of modern civilization to more than five billion people, but also because of the urgent need to transform our energy structure and to avoid the worst consequences of global climate change. Realistic assessment must see these coming transitions as protracted, multi-decade tasks.

Environment

2021 ◽  
pp. 205-243
Author(s):  
Vaclav Smil
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Human Action ◽  
The One

Large-scale, anthropogenic impact on the biosphere is not a new phenomenon, but the past two centuries have seen an unprecedented extent and intensity of land-use changes, ecosystemic degradation, and pollution driven by population growth, rising food production, energy use, and economic activity. Some two-thirds of terrestrial surfaces have been affected by human action, every biome lost some of its biodiversity, and some forms of environmental pollution (including photochemical smog, coastal dead zones, and plastics in the ocean) are now encountered in many places around the world. The most worrisome impact is the one that affects the entire biosphere: global climate change caused by emissions of greenhouse gases from the combustion of fossil fuels and from agriculture and land-use changes. Managing this challenge will be exceedingly difficult.

scholarly journals Demographic determinants of energy consumption in the European Union: Econometric analysis results

Stanovnistvo ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Predrag Petrovic ◽  
Goran Nikolic ◽  
Ivana Ostojic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Senior Citizens ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Human Society

Over the past several decades there has been a strong intensifying trend of human society impact on ecosystems, consumption of natural resources and global change. The environmental impact of the society is fully apparent and dominantly implemented through various greenhouse gases emissions (GHG), leading towards global climate change with considerably spread harmful effects. Global climate change includes the earth and ocean surface and atmospheric warming, but also melting of snow and ice, increase of sea levels and ocean acidity, as well as ever more common natural phenomena extremes (winds, various forms of rainfall/precipitation, extremely low or high temperatures, etc.). Scientists are well-familiarized with the fact that use of fossil fuels, such as oil derivatives and coal, is the main generator of harmful gases. In addition, possible substitutions for fossil fuels in the form of other energy sources are very limited, and it should be remembered that other energy sources also have certain adverse environmental effects. Bearing in mind climate change caused by products of fossil fuels combustion, as well as inevitable depletion of natural crude oil resources, management of growing global energy demand becomes one of the key goals and challenges of 21st century. If these reasons are coupled with obligations emanating from Kyoto Protocol, it is clear that attention of researches should be more than reasonably focused on the main determinants of energy consumption. This study is focused on illumination of key demographic and economic determinants of energy consumption in 28 EU member states in the period 1960- 2014. The results obtained demonstrate that population positively and quite strongly influence total energy consumption. An increase of population of 1% will result in an increase of energy consumption of 1.59% to 1.76%. Such relation most probably can be explained by the fact that demographic growth of the society aggravates and complicates planning processes of efficient energy consumption, diminishing the ability of society to be energy efficient. The population effect of persons aged 65 and above to energy consumption is also positive. An increase in share of this age group of 1% will result in an increase in energy consumption of approximately 0.43%. Positive elasticity coefficient should be understood as a proof that European societies with higher share of senior citizens consume more energy that societies with higher share of younger population, not necessarily as an argument that senior citizens use more energy than younger population. The explanation for such nature of a cause-andeffect relation could be that high share of senior citizens influences the structure of production and consumption, spatial distribution of population, transport infrastructure and social services provided. A significant influence on energy consumption in the EU is made by the level of economic development of countries, which is in accordance with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), suggesting a relation of inverted letter ?U?. The amount of income per capita needed to have the EKC expressed ranges between 54,183 and 81,552 dollars.

Final Words

Glaciers ◽  
2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Daniel Taillant
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Google Earth ◽  
Lifestyle Changes ◽  
Way Of Life ◽  
Daily Lives ◽  
Phase Out

In the preceding chapters of this book, we’ve traveled through a world of ice that was probably largely uncharted for most of us. Hopefully, we’ve learned a little bit about these fantastic frozen natural resources that play such a fundamental role in the sustainability and balance of our global ecosystem. Glaciers are melting. They are in danger because we have placed them in danger and, as such, we need to take note of and responsibility for this vulnerability, not only to protect glaciers but also to protect the very essence of our global habitat. Glaciers have been unprotected because they are obscure, removed, alien to our daily lives, located in far away places that are for the most part inhospitable to our way of life. And yet, they are a fundamental and integral part of our way of life. With modern tools like the Internet and programs like Google Earth, we can get closer to these fabulous vulnerable resources, to learn about them and work to protect them. The world is challenged today to address global climate change. If we envision a sustainable and harmonious environment in our future, we must progressively move away from fossil fuels and introduce a more balanced and sustainable mix of energy sources grounded on renewable energy. We must find solutions to generating, harnessing, transporting, and managing renewable energies, and we must progressively phase out oil and gas from our daily lives. It is possible; it just takes personal and collective conviction to set ourselves in motion to achieve this goal. Glaciers are a majestic resource, inspiring awe and wonder in a world of frozen beauty that awaits our discovery but that also alerts us to our excesses and indifference. We are losing our glaciers because we have ignored the extreme vulnerability of our planetary ecosystem, and we now must face difficult decisions about policy, consumption, and lifestyle changes that shake the foundations of our society. Global climate change for many seems intangible.

scholarly journals THE ROLE OF IPCC ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN AGRICULTURE

2017 ◽  
pp. 173-180
Author(s):  
Mahesh Patel ◽  
J.G. Rangiya ◽  
K.J Patel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Warming World

Recognizing the pressing global problem of climate change, the IPCC was formed in 1988 as an apex source to holistically address the issue. It strives to critically congregate best scientific, technical and socio-economic data on global climate change to produce various papers and reports which become standard works of reference (UNEP, 2004). IPCC has contributed extensively to unleash the mitigation potential from the perspective of agriculture, correlating it with climate change policy, environmental quality and ultimately, sustainable development (Working group II, 2007). Agriculture lands form 40- 50% of the earth’s land surface and contribute to 10-12% of the Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this sector, by improved crop, soil, water, livestock and water management, the mitigation of climate change can be approached in a cost-effective way than other sectors. Hence this paper dwells into the significant role of IPCC to progress towards sustainable development in agriculture sector. It would discuss about how agriculture management activities would decrease GHG emissions and increase carbon sequestration (Technical group V, 2002). In the warming world, precipitation is skewed, sea level is rising, glaciers are melting, acidic levels in oceans are rising and dissolved oxygen in sea water is declining (IPCC, 2014). Hence major river floods are likely, which is a threat to the food production. This paper would highlight the need to limit effects of climate change to achieve sustainable development as the focus, and would further discuss social equity and poverty eradication. It would explore adaptation and mitigation methods to enumerate short and long-term goals to combat climate change from reinvented livestock and crop systems, beneficial land use changes, improved fertilizers and advanced technological perspectives (IPCC, 1990). It would enforce the learnings from IPCC’s contributions enumerating how agriculture must have a high synergy with sustainable development to address global climate change.

scholarly journals Climate Imperialism: Ecocriticism, Postcolonialism, and Global Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 138-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Hartnett
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Postcolonial Studies ◽  
Indigenous Resistance ◽  
History Of ◽  
New Form ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Climate Crisis

Global climate change threatens to kill or displace hundreds of thousands of people and will irrevocably change the lifestyles of practically everyone on the planet. However, the effect of imperialism and colonialism on climate change is a topic that has not received adequate scrutiny. Empire has been a significant factor in the rise of fossil fuels. The complicated connections between conservation and empire often make it difficult to reconcile the two disparate fields of ecocriticism and postcolonial studies. This paper will discuss how empire and imperialism have contributed to, and continue to shape, the ever-looming threat of global climate crisis, especially as it manifests in the tropics. Global climate change reinforces disparate economic, social, and racial conditions that were started, fostered, and thrived throughout the long history of colonization, inscribing climate change as a new, slow form of imperialism that is retracing the pathways that colonialism and globalism have already formed. Ultimately, it may only be by considering climate change through a postcolonial lens and utilizing indigenous resistance that the damage of this new form of climate imperialism can be undone.

Long-Term Climate Justice

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Nolt
Keyword(s):  
Moral Psychology ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
John Stuart Mill ◽  
Climate Justice ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
Theories Of Justice

Anthropogenic global climate change resulting mainly from the burning of fossil fuels during the historically brief fossil fuel era will displace, sicken, injure, and kill large numbers of people over the coming centuries, perhaps millennia. This is an unprecedented injustice. This chapter aims to articulate the sense which these extremely long-term harms constitute injustice and to show that prominent contemporary theories of justice do not adequately account for that injustice. Distributional theories are largely blind to it because they do not consider harms, and long-term human rights theories falter, both because they posit mutually unfulfillable rights and because they lack a persuasive moral psychology. As remedies, this chapter suggests, first, a long-term consequentialism of rights, perhaps differing little from plain objective welfare consequentialism, and, second, a moral psychology inspired by the Hebraic prophetic tradition and analyzed by John Stuart Mill.

2015 UNFCCC Paris Summit: India's Dilemma

2015 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Gaurav Shobhane ◽  
Bhaumik Jain ◽  
Gautam Anchalia ◽  
Ayush Agrawal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Negotiation Process ◽  
Climate Negotiation ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Per Capita

In December 2015, 196 countries will meet in Paris to reach a new global climate change agreement. This case looks at the climate negotiation process from the eyes of India's environment minister Mr Prakash Javadekar. In India's context, the energy sector has a big role to play in emission reduction as it is the largest emitter of the GHGs. When compared to US and China, India's per-capita emissions are miniscule but they are expected to rise substantially as the GoI is investing heavily in the infrastructure sector which has a substantial carbon footprint. The case discusses the mandatory emission cuts that India will announce considering the fulfillment of sustainable development goals. The case also points out, the government's promise of providing 24*7 electricity by 2019 which it feels can be an impediment in setting an aggressive emission cut target. The case questions if changes in the portfolio mix can be a part of the solution.

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