The Pricing of Stock Options

Author(s):  
Lisa Borland

We describe how a stock price model based on nonextensive statistics can be used to derive a generalized theory for pricing stock options. A review of theoretical and empirical results is presented…. In 1973, Black and Scholes [1] and Merton [12] published their seminal papers which developed a theory of the fair price of options. Scholes and Merton were later to receive the 1997 Nobel prize for this famous work (Fisher Black had unfortunately passed away two years earlier). Options are important financial instruments which are traded in a huge volume all around the world on a variety of exchanges. There are options on underlying assets ranging from orange juice to gold, stocks to currency. In principle, an option is simply the right—but not the obligation—to execute some previously agreed upon action, for example, the right to buy or sell the underlying asset at some predetermined price, called the strike. It is not difficult to understand that the existence of such instruments could be extremely useful—for example, the right to buy an asset at a certain price protects against unforeseen events which could lead to huge price rises and thereby losses to someone who knows that they will need the asset at some time in the future. Similarly, the right to sell the asset at a certain price will protect against unforeseen drops in its value. These examples illustrate the use of options to hedge oneself against possible future events. Another use is more speculative: If a trader believes that the price of a stock will rise above a certain price at some date in the future, then it is in his interest to secure an option to buy the stock at some fixed lower price. Then, if the price of the stock does rise above that price, the trader can execute his option, just to turn around and resell the stock again at the higher market price.

1960 ◽  
Vol 16 (01) ◽  
pp. 40-47
Author(s):  
J. G. Day

The best known and most common type of option is that where an investor pays money (option money) for the call—that is for the right to buy shares at the current price in 3 months time.This is best explained by an example. Suppose shareAstands at 50s. (market price 49s. 10½d.–50s. 1½d.) and the option rate is 4s.Then the investor pays:Option money 4s.Commission (as for buying a share at 50s. 1½d.)This payment gives him the right to buy the share at the ‘striking price’ on any ‘declaration day’ within the term of the option.


2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3.12) ◽  
pp. 627
Author(s):  
Madhusudan Reddy ◽  
Arun Gade ◽  
Sreekarreddy . ◽  
P Prabhu

Stock market forecasts are an attempt to determine the future value of corporate capital or other financial products consumed in the stock market. If the future stock price forecast succeeds, you can gain great profit. The efficient market presents all the current stock price information, which shows that price fluctuations are not the basis for unnecessary new information. Others disagree that people who have these ideas have many methods and techniques to help them get future information. [1]  


Author(s):  
Dina Yeni Martia ◽  
Wiwik Setyawati ◽  
Yuli Hastuti

As an investors should be able to consider and conduct an assessment of shares that can provide optimal returns in making investment decisions. Assessment can be done by analyzing the fairness of stock price of the company. This study aims to determine the stock price of PT. Semen Indonesia of the period 2014-2016. The method used in this research is fundamental analysis using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach. The result of this study shows that PT. Semen Indonesia’s stock is in an undervalued condition. Therefore, the right decision for the investor is to buy the stock for investment or not to sell the stock in the hope that in the future the stock price will rise.


2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-42
Author(s):  
Isaac Kofi Nti ◽  
Adebayo Felix Adekoya ◽  
Benjamin Asubam Weyori

AbstractPredicting the stock market remains a challenging task due to the numerous influencing factors such as investor sentiment, firm performance, economic factors and social media sentiments. However, the profitability and economic advantage associated with accurate prediction of stock price draw the interest of academicians, economic, and financial analyst into researching in this field. Despite the improvement in stock prediction accuracy, the literature argues that prediction accuracy can be further improved beyond its current measure by looking for newer information sources particularly on the Internet. Using web news, financial tweets posted on Twitter, Google trends and forum discussions, the current study examines the association between public sentiments and the predictability of future stock price movement using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). We experimented the proposed predictive framework with stock data obtained from the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) between January 2010 and September 2019, and predicted the future stock value for a time window of 1 day, 7 days, 30 days, 60 days, and 90 days. We observed an accuracy of (49.4–52.95 %) based on Google trends, (55.5–60.05 %) based on Twitter, (41.52–41.77 %) based on forum post, (50.43–55.81 %) based on web news and (70.66–77.12 %) based on a combined dataset. Thus, we recorded an increase in prediction accuracy as several stock-related data sources were combined as input to our prediction model. We also established a high level of direct association between stock market behaviour and social networking sites. Therefore, based on the study outcome, we advised that stock market investors could utilise the information from web financial news, tweet, forum discussion, and Google trends to effectively perceive the future stock price movement and design effective portfolio/investment plans.


2011 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 857-866 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason P. Mitchell ◽  
Jessica Schirmer ◽  
Daniel L. Ames ◽  
Daniel T. Gilbert

People often make shortsighted decisions to receive small benefits in the present rather than large benefits in the future, that is, to favor their current selves over their future selves. In two studies using fMRI, we demonstrated that people make such decisions in part because they fail to engage in the same degree of self-referential processing when thinking about their future selves. When participants predicted how much they would enjoy an event in the future, they showed less activity in brain regions associated with introspective self-reference—such as the ventromedial pFC (vMPFC)—than when they predicted how much they would enjoy events in the present. Moreover, the magnitude of vMPFC reduction predicted the extent to which participants made shortsighted monetary decisions several weeks later. In light of recent findings that the vMPFC contributes to the ability to simulate future events from a first-person perspective, these data suggest that shortsighted decisions result in part from a failure to fully imagine the subjective experience of one's future self.


2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 69
Author(s):  
Angky Soedrijanto ◽  
Martani Huseini ◽  
Margono Setiawan ◽  
Eddy Suprayitno

Broodstock in the preparation of the document traceability from sea to table is upstream of all the problems in the shrimp business in Indonesia. Until now there has been no regulation or standard of Good Breeding Practices Operaional procedures that are technically capable of guaranteeing the treatment of antibiotics free. The research aims to identify, locate and establish a starting point in the implementation of traceability Indonesian shrimp from hatchery business. Analyzing the performance of the business associated with breeding success in the implementation of traceability as well as find the implementation strategy of  Indonesia's shrimp traceability. The results showed that tracer code to recording the capture area of the broodstock and technically seeding practices is importance. Application numeric code that registered would be included in the memorandum of sale of seed should be done jointly by the Government and the Association of hatchery. Standards and sanctions, can be implemented by the supplier, and cold storage. Supplier has the right to buy at the local market price for non-tracer prawn; so that cold storage have to refuse shrimp if nothing to seed sales without a memorandum of traceability. Based on these simple sales memorandum format, traceability could have been implemented for accurate searching. The reflects code of location tracer hatchery / backyard in District / City + catcher + spawner + breeder + seed brokers whole or in part. Technicians and Managers responsible for the source of information if cases of food safety incidents, For accounting purposes of the company, that buyers have a recording data search to find a farmer or even seed traders. In the event that a broodstock shrimp business comes from imports, the tracer code catcher broodstock and breeder may contain information search origin imported interpreted code or code numbers importers import documents.


Author(s):  
David T. Doran

At the time of this writing, SFAS No.123 (1995) prescribes GAAP in accounting for employee stock options.  It allows firms to choose either the intrinsic or fair value method in determining the amount of compensation expense recognized for employee stock options.  The choice of method affects the numerator of the earnings per share (EPS) calculation.   The FASB recently issued a revised SFAS No. 123 (2004) which will require uniform application of the fair value method.  GAAP also requires that the denominator for the diluted EPS calculation be increased for incremental shares under the treasury stock method.  SFAS 128 requires the treasury stock method be applied where the proceeds from the assumed exercise of options are used to acquire shares of the firm’s outstanding stock at the average market price for the period.  Previous to SFAS No. 128, APB Opinion No. 15 required that the higher of average or period ending stock price be used in determining the number of shares reacquired with the proceeds from the assumed exercise of stock options.  This paper develops a simple one period model that assumes a risk free environment with complete certainty conditions in testing the accuracy of EPS calculated under GAAP using the fair value method vs. the intrinsic value method.   The results indicate that EPS reported under the intrinsic value method are overstated, and further indicate that a combination of both the fair value method and the treasury stock method is needed in calculating diluted EPS.  This fair value and treasury stock method combination is shown to not “double count” the stock option’s impact upon EPS.  The results also indicate a slight misstatement of diluted EPS under the fair value method when applying the treasury stock method requirements of SFAS No. 128.  Correct EPS results when shares are assumed reacquired for the treasury at the higher year ending price, consistent with superseded APB 15.  However, the diluted EPS misstatement is so slight that the FASB’s rationale for always requiring the use of average period price seems likely to be justified.  The findings of this research support the requirements of SFAS No. 123 (revised 2004) and SFAS No. 128.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mincheol Woo ◽  
Meong Ae Kim

Informed traders may prefer the options market to the stock market for reasons including the leverage effect, transaction costs, restrictions on short sale. Many studies try to predict future returns of stocks using informed traders' behavior in the options market. In this study, we examine whether the trading volume ratios of single stock options have the predictive power for future returns of the underlying stock. By analyzing the stock price responses to the “preliminary announcement of performance” of 36 underlying stocks on the Korea Exchange from November 2014 to March 2021 and the trading volume of options written on those stocks, we investigate the relation between the option ratios, which are the call option volume to put option volume ratio (C/P ratio) and the option volume to stock volume ratio (O/S ratio), and the future returns of the underlying stock. We also examine which ratio is better in predicting the future returns. The authors found that both option ratios showed the statistically significant predictability about future returns of the underlying stock and that the return predictability of the O/S ratio is more robust than that of the C/P ratio. This study shows that indicators generated in the options market can be used to predict future underlying stock returns. Further, the findings of this study contributed to a dearth of literature pertaining to single stock options. The results suggest that the single stock options market is efficient and influences the price discovery in the stock market.


AL- ADALAH ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 391
Author(s):  
Siti Nurjanah

Child protection has become an important issue in the modern world. To guarantee the future generations, children must be protected from all forms of of interference, threats, violence and exploitation carried out by adults. Protection is not only charged to parents, but also to the community, nation and state. This article tries to examine the attitude of Islam towards the issue of child protection through a search of syara arguments. Especially in the Qur'an and in the Hadith. This study finds out that Islam has a broader perspective. In guaranteeing the needs of children. The guarantees start when they are still in the wombs (fetus) to adulthood. This can be understood from the provisions of the Shari'ah which prohibits abortion and provide relief for pregnant women not to fast during the month of Ramadan. In addition, Islam also gives rights to children, such as the right to life, the right to have aqiqah (religious redemption), the right to have a good name, the right to receive breastfeeding for two years, and so on.


2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 620-636 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marisabel Romero ◽  
Adam W. Craig ◽  
Anand Kumar

Cognitive linguistic studies have found that people perceive time to be intertwined with space. Western consumers, in particular, visualize time on a horizontal spatial axis, with past events on the left and future events on the right. Underexplored, however, is whether and how space-time associations influence future time-related judgments and decisions. For instance, can spatial location cues affect intertemporal decisions? Integrating cognitive linguistics, time psychology, and intertemporal choice, the authors demonstrate across five studies that when choices are displayed horizontally (vs. vertically), consumers more steeply discount future outcomes. Furthermore, this effect is serially mediated by attention to time and anticipated duration estimates. Specifically, the authors propose and demonstrate that horizontal (vs. vertical) temporal displays enhance the amount of attention devoted to considering the time delay and lead consumers to overestimate how long it will take to receive benefits. This research has important implications for consumers who want to forgo immediate gratification and for firms that need to manage consumers’ time perceptions.


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