Mapping Time: How the Spatial Representation of Time Influences Intertemporal Choices

2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 620-636 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marisabel Romero ◽  
Adam W. Craig ◽  
Anand Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Linguistics ◽  
Intertemporal Choice ◽  
Spatial Location ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Time Perceptions ◽  
Future Outcomes ◽  
The Right ◽  
Intertemporal Decisions ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Spatial Axis

Cognitive linguistic studies have found that people perceive time to be intertwined with space. Western consumers, in particular, visualize time on a horizontal spatial axis, with past events on the left and future events on the right. Underexplored, however, is whether and how space-time associations influence future time-related judgments and decisions. For instance, can spatial location cues affect intertemporal decisions? Integrating cognitive linguistics, time psychology, and intertemporal choice, the authors demonstrate across five studies that when choices are displayed horizontally (vs. vertically), consumers more steeply discount future outcomes. Furthermore, this effect is serially mediated by attention to time and anticipated duration estimates. Specifically, the authors propose and demonstrate that horizontal (vs. vertical) temporal displays enhance the amount of attention devoted to considering the time delay and lead consumers to overestimate how long it will take to receive benefits. This research has important implications for consumers who want to forgo immediate gratification and for firms that need to manage consumers’ time perceptions.

scholarly journals Cognitive mechanisms underlying subjective value of past and future events: Modeling systematic reversals of temporal value asymmetry

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter D. Kvam ◽  
Matthew Baldwin ◽  
Erin Corwin Westgate
Keyword(s):  
Intertemporal Choice ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Temporal Distance ◽  
Common Finding ◽  
Cognitive Mechanisms ◽  
Difference Model ◽  
Psychological Traits ◽  
Subjective Value ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Future Outcomes

People discount both future outcomes that could happen and past outcomes that could have happened according to how far away they are in time. A common finding is that future outcomes are often preferred to past ones when the payoffs and temporal distance (how long ago / until they occur) are matched, referred to as temporal value asymmetry. In this paper, we examine the consistency of this effect by examining the effect of manipulating the magnitude and delays of past and future payoffs on participants' choices, and challenge the claim that differences in value are primarily due to differences in discounting rates for past and future events. We find reversals of the temporal value asymmetry when payoffs are low and when temporal distance is large, suggesting that people have different sensitivity to the magnitude of past and future payoffs. We show that these effects can be accommodated in an direct difference model of intertemporal choice but not in the most common discounting models (hyperboloid), suggesting that both temporal distance and payoff magnitude carry independent influences on the subjective value of past and future outcomes. Finally, we explore how these tendencies to represent past and future outcome values are related to one another and to individual differences in personality and psychological traits, showing how these measures cluster according to whether they measure processes related to past/future events, payoffs/delays, and whether they are behavioral/self-report measures.

scholarly journals Intertemporal choice reflects value comparison rather than self-control: insights from confidence judgments

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Bulley ◽  
Karolina Maria Lempert ◽  
Colin Conwell ◽  
Muireann Irish
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Intertemporal Choice ◽  
The Self ◽  
Self Control ◽  
Confidence Judgments ◽  
Adult Participants ◽  
Subjective Value ◽  
The Right ◽  
Intertemporal Decisions ◽  
Intertemporal Choices

Intertemporal decision-making has long been assumed to measure self-control, with prominent theories treating choices of smaller, sooner rewards as failed attempts to override immediate temptation. If this view is correct, people should be more confident in their intertemporal decisions when they “successfully” delay gratification than when they do not. In two pre- registered experiments with built-in replication, adult participants (n=117) made monetary intertemporal choices and rated their confidence in having made the right decisions. Contrary to assumptions of the self-control account, confidence was not higher when participants chose delayed rewards. Rather, participants were more confident in their decisions when possible rewards were further apart in time-discounted subjective value, closer to the present, and larger in magnitude. Demonstrating metacognitive insight, participants were more confident in decisions that better aligned with their independent valuation of possible rewards. Decisions made with less confidence were more prone to changes-of-mind and more susceptible to a patience-enhancing manipulation. Together, our results establish that confidence in intertemporal choice tracks uncertainty in estimating and comparing the value of possible rewards – just as it does in decisions unrelated to self-control. Our findings challenge self- control views and instead cast intertemporal choice as a form of value-based decision-making about future possibilities.

scholarly journals Medial Prefrontal Cortex Predicts Intertemporal Choice

2011 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 857-866 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason P. Mitchell ◽  
Jessica Schirmer ◽  
Daniel L. Ames ◽  
Daniel T. Gilbert
Keyword(s):  
Subjective Experience ◽  
Intertemporal Choice ◽  
Brain Regions ◽  
Person Perspective ◽  
Future Selves ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Events ◽  
First Person Perspective ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Self Reference

People often make shortsighted decisions to receive small benefits in the present rather than large benefits in the future, that is, to favor their current selves over their future selves. In two studies using fMRI, we demonstrated that people make such decisions in part because they fail to engage in the same degree of self-referential processing when thinking about their future selves. When participants predicted how much they would enjoy an event in the future, they showed less activity in brain regions associated with introspective self-reference—such as the ventromedial pFC (vMPFC)—than when they predicted how much they would enjoy events in the present. Moreover, the magnitude of vMPFC reduction predicted the extent to which participants made shortsighted monetary decisions several weeks later. In light of recent findings that the vMPFC contributes to the ability to simulate future events from a first-person perspective, these data suggest that shortsighted decisions result in part from a failure to fully imagine the subjective experience of one's future self.

scholarly journals Adolescent impatience decreases with increased frontostriatal connectivity

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (29) ◽  
pp. E3765-E3774 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wouter van den Bos ◽  
Christian A. Rodriguez ◽  
Julie B. Schweitzer ◽  
Samuel M. McClure
Keyword(s):  
Intertemporal Choice ◽  
Future Orientation ◽  
Structural Connectivity ◽  
Developmental Changes ◽  
Functional Coupling ◽  
Age Related ◽  
Dorsolateral Prefrontal ◽  
Evaluative Processes ◽  
Future Outcomes ◽  
The Right

Adolescence is a developmental period associated with an increase in impulsivity. Impulsivity is a multidimensional construct, and in this study we focus on one of the underlying components: impatience. Impatience can result from (i) disregard of future outcomes and/or (ii) oversensitivity to immediate rewards, but it is not known which of these evaluative processes underlie developmental changes. To distinguish between these two causes, we investigated developmental changes in the structural and functional connectivity of different frontostriatal tracts. We report that adolescents were more impatient on an intertemporal choice task and reported less future orientation, but not more present hedonism, than young adults. Developmental increases in structural connectivity strength in the right dorsolateral prefrontal tract were related to increased negative functional coupling with the striatum and an age-related decrease in discount rates. Our results suggest that mainly increased control, and the integration of future-oriented thought, drives the reduction in impatience across adolescence.

The Pricing of Stock Options

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Borland
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Options ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Fair Price ◽  
Nonextensive Statistics ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Events ◽  
The Right ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Right To Buy

We describe how a stock price model based on nonextensive statistics can be used to derive a generalized theory for pricing stock options. A review of theoretical and empirical results is presented…. In 1973, Black and Scholes [1] and Merton [12] published their seminal papers which developed a theory of the fair price of options. Scholes and Merton were later to receive the 1997 Nobel prize for this famous work (Fisher Black had unfortunately passed away two years earlier). Options are important financial instruments which are traded in a huge volume all around the world on a variety of exchanges. There are options on underlying assets ranging from orange juice to gold, stocks to currency. In principle, an option is simply the right—but not the obligation—to execute some previously agreed upon action, for example, the right to buy or sell the underlying asset at some predetermined price, called the strike. It is not difficult to understand that the existence of such instruments could be extremely useful—for example, the right to buy an asset at a certain price protects against unforeseen events which could lead to huge price rises and thereby losses to someone who knows that they will need the asset at some time in the future. Similarly, the right to sell the asset at a certain price will protect against unforeseen drops in its value. These examples illustrate the use of options to hedge oneself against possible future events. Another use is more speculative: If a trader believes that the price of a stock will rise above a certain price at some date in the future, then it is in his interest to secure an option to buy the stock at some fixed lower price. Then, if the price of the stock does rise above that price, the trader can execute his option, just to turn around and resell the stock again at the higher market price.

Percent framing attenuates the magnitude effect in a preference-matching task of intertemporal choice

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Farid Anvari ◽  
Davide Marchiori
Keyword(s):  
Alternative Explanation ◽  
Intertemporal Choice ◽  
Relative Difference ◽  
Absolute Difference ◽  
Matching Task ◽  
Magnitude Effect ◽  
Intertemporal Decisions ◽  
Relative Differences ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Future Choice

A robust phenomenon in intertemporal decisions—the magnitude effect—shows that people value future gains less than equivalent but immediate gains by a factor known as the discount rate (i.e., people want a premium for waiting to receive a reward). However, the psychological underpinnings of this effect are not yet fully understood. One explanation proposes that intertemporal choices are driven by comparisons of features of the present and future choice options (e.g., information on rewards). According to this explanation, the hypothesis is that the magnitude effect is stronger when the absolute difference between present and future rewards is emphasized, compared to when their relative difference is emphasized. However, this hypothesis has only been tested using one task (the two-choice paradigm) and only for gains (i.e., not losses). It’s therefore unclear whether the findings that support the hypothesis can be generalized to different methodological paradigms (e.g., preference matching) and to the domain of losses. To address this question, we conducted experiments using the preference-matching method whereby the premium amounts that people could ask for were framed in terms of either currencies (emphasizing absolute differences) or percentages (emphasizing relative differences). We thus tested the robustness of the evidence in support of the hypothesis that percent framing, relative to currency framing, attenuates the magnitude effect in the domain of gains (Studies 1, 2, and 3) and in the domain of losses (Study 1, 3, and 4). Study 5 ruled out floor effects as an alternative explanation for the results in the losses domain. Overall, the results support the hypothesis.

DMSA-scintigraphy in paediatrics: Is the evaluation of the geometric mean necessary for the calculation of the differential renal function?

2001 ◽  
Vol 40 (04) ◽  
pp. 107-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Roßmüller ◽  
S. Alalp ◽  
S. Fischer ◽  
S. Dresel ◽  
K. Hahn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Renal Function ◽  
Geometric Mean ◽  
Region Of Interest ◽  
Posterior View ◽  
Renal Abnormality ◽  
Anterior View ◽  
Differential Renal Function ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Right ◽  
To Receive

SummaryFor assessment of differential renal function (PF) by means of static renal scintigraphy with Tc-99m-dimer-captosuccinic acid (DMSA) the calculation of the geometric mean of counts from the anterior and posterior view is recommended. Aim of this retrospective study was to find out, if the anterior view is necessary to receive an accurate differential renal function by calculating the geometric mean compared to calculating PF using the counts of the posterior view only. Methods: 164 DMSA-scans of 151 children (86 f, 65 m) aged 16 d to 16 a (4.7 ± 3.9 a) were reviewed. The scans were performed using a dual head gamma camera (Picker Prism 2000 XP, low energy ultra high resolution collimator, matrix 256 x 256,300 kcts/view, Zoom: 1.6-2.0). Background corrected values from both kidneys anterior and posterior were obtained. Using region of interest technique PF was calculated using the counts of the dorsal view and compared with the calculated geometric mean [SQR(Ctsdors x Ctsventr]. Results: The differential function of the right kidney was significantly less when compared to the calculation of the geometric mean (p<0.01). The mean difference between the PFgeom and the PFdors was 1.5 ± 1.4%. A difference > 5% (5.0-9.5%) was obtained in only 6/164 scans (3.7%). Three of 6 patients presented with an underestimated PFdors due to dystopic kidneys on the left side in 2 patients and on the right side in one patient. The other 3 patients with a difference >5% did not show any renal abnormality. Conclusion: The calculation of the PF from the posterior view only will give an underestimated value of the right kidney compared to the calculation of the geometric mean. This effect is not relevant for the calculation of the differntial renal function in orthotopic kidneys, so that in these cases the anterior view is not necesssary. However, geometric mean calculation to obtain reliable values for differential renal function should be applied in cases with an obvious anatomical abnormality.

PROBLEM ASPECTS OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF CRIMINAL PROCEDURAL NORMS OF PROTECTION OF THE VICTIMS FROM CRIME

2020 ◽  
pp. 72-76
Author(s):  
Яна Валерьевна Самиулина
Keyword(s):  
Preventive Measure ◽  
Criminal Procedure ◽  
Legal Rights ◽  
Criminal Proceedings ◽  
Effective Mechanism ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Right ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Selection Of

В настоящей статье предпринята попытка исследовать отдельные проблемные аспекты института потерпевшего в российском уголовном процессе. В этих целях подвергнуты анализу правовые нормы, регламентирующие его процессуальный статус. Раскрываются отдельные пробелы уголовно-процессуального законодательства в сфере защиты законных прав и интересов потерпевшего. Автор акцентирует внимание на том, что совершенствование уголовно-процессуального законодательства в части расширения правомочий потерпевшего по отстаиванию своих нарушенных преступлением прав следует продолжить. На основании проведенного исследования действующего законодательства в части регламентации прав потерпевшего от преступления предлагается расширить перечень получаемых им копий постановлений, указанных в п. 13 ч. 2 ст. 42 УПК РФ. Автор предлагает включить в перечень указанной законодательной нормы право получения потерпевшим копии постановления об избрании конкретного вида меры пресечения, избранного в отношении подозреваемого (обвиняемого). Для создания действенного механизма защиты интересов потерпевших от преступления юридических лиц предлагаем ч. 9 ст. 42 УПК РФ изложить в следующей редакции: «в случае признания потерпевшим юридического лица его процессуальное право в уголовном процессе осуществляет представляющий его профессиональный адвокат». This article attempts to investigate certain problematic aspects of the institution of the victim in the Russian criminal process. For this purpose, analyzed the individual norms governing his procedural status. Separate gaps of the criminal procedure legislation in the sphere of protection of the legal rights and interests of the victim are disclosed. The author emphasizes that the improvement of the criminal procedure legislation in terms of the extension of the victim’s authority to defend his rights violated by the crime should be continued. On the basis of the study of the current legislation regarding the regulation of the rights of the victim of a crime, it is proposed to expand the list of decisions received by him, referred to in paragraph 13, part 2 of article 42 Code of Criminal Procedure. The author proposes to include in the list of the indicated legislative norm the right to receive the victim a copy of the decision on the selection of a specific type of preventive measure, selected in relation to the suspect (accused). To create an effective mechanism for protecting the interests of legal entities victims of a crime, we offer part 9 of art. 42 of the Code of Criminal Procedure of the Russian Federation shall be reworded as follows: «if a legal entity is recognized as a victim, his procedural right in criminal proceedings is exercised by the professional lawyer representing him».

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