Monitoring Agricultural Drought in Russia

Drought has been posing serious problems for agricultural production in Russia. A well-known Russian scientist, Vavilov (1931), noted that droughts characterize Russian farming. Recently, in some Russian Federation regions, there has been a high probability of severe or extremely severe droughts (Pasechnyuk et al., 1977; ARRIAM, 2000; Kleschenko, 2000; Ulanova and Strashnaya, 2000; Zoidze and Khomyakova, 2000; table 15.1). Numerous definitions of drought are available in the Russian literature (Bova, 1946; Alpatiev and Ivanova, 1958; David, 1965; Kalinin, 1981; Polevoy, 1992; Khomyakova and Zoidze, 2001). However, Kleschenko (2000) noted that all definitions are similar. Droughts are most frequently observed in Russia (Povolzhie, North Caucasus, Central-Chernozem regions, Ural, West and East Siberia) as well as in other Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries: Ukraine, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, and Armenia. The Povolzhie, North-Caucasus, and Central-Chernozem regions contribute significantly to the Russian economy because these regions have fertile chernozems soils and produce most (about two-thirds) of the food grains—wheat and rye during the winter season and wheat, maize, and barley during the spring season. In recent moisture-favorable or nondrought years (1978, 1990 and 2001), the total grain production was 130 million tons, while during drought years (1975, 1981, 1995 and 1998), the production declined by half (Ulanova and Strashnaya, 2000). Decline in food grain yields was observed from 1917 to 1990 in the former USSR, and since 1990 in the post-Soviet Russia. Rudenko (1958) reported that Ukraine experienced severe droughts during 1875, 1889, 1918, and 1921, when the spring wheat yield was 70% of the mean yield. A sudden depression in the winter rye yield was observed in Povolzhie region during severe droughts of 1890, 1898, and 1911, when the yield was less than 60%, and during 1906, when the yield was only 25% of the mean yield. During severe droughts in Russia during 1972, 1975, 1979, 1984, and 1995, the crop yield deviated by an average of 17–42% in Russia as a whole, up to 19–91% in the Central-Chernozem regions, up to 45–100% in Povolzhie region, 27–36% in the North-Caucasus region, and 21–100% in the Ural region.